https://www.newsbtc.com/xrp-news/xrp-price-historical-data-suggests-substantial-q4-rally-possible/

XRP price might have struggled to leave the $0.50 range over the last several months, even despite a victory in Ripple’s case with the SEC. 

But all that could change in Q4 2023, as the fourth quarter of the year is historically the most bullish for the altcoin.  With this in mind, let’s dig into the data and see how Q4 stacks up against the historical performance of other quarters of the year. Plus, we’ll pin-point precisely which month is by far the most bullish of them all. 

Q4 Performance Is The Best Historically For XRP Price

XRP price at the moment is trading at around $0.51 after a fierce rejection following Ripple’s big win in the case against the SEC. The altcoin was promptly relisted on top cryptocurrency exchanges, but it hasn’t led to the demand necessary to sustain higher prices. 

But that could change soon, now that Q3 is over and Q4 is here. The cryptocurrency is coming out of its worst quarter on average, so lack of performance isn’t too surprising. Q4, however, according to historical averages in performance across all quarters, is by far the most substantial. 

Q4 on average has provided an average of 30% ROI. Right behind it is Q2, posting roughly 22% ROI. Q1 averages a modest 13%, while Q3 comes in last with only 6% on average. There’s no guarantee this data will translate into returns during this last quarter of the year, but seasonality and serial correlation are common in finance and cryptocurrencies. 

Why It Could Take Til December For The Bull Run To Begin

Unfortunately, October isn’t the beginning of a massive bull run the previous text makes it sound. While the data doesn’t lie — XRP price performs the best historically in Q4 on average, but Q4 represents October through the end of December. 

On a month-by-month basis, October is actually the third worst month on average. If the same positive seasonality in XRP were to follow along the data’s projections accurately, then it would also suggest that October might be another month of pain and sideways for investors. 

At an almost 12% gain in November on average compared to October’s 1.5% average decline, the second to last month of the year will turn things green. But even November isn’t quite the relief XRP holders would hope for.

That doesn’t arrive until December, which is by far and away the best month on average for XRP, with an 80% ROI on average. The one caveat, is that the majority of the returns occurred during the 2017 bull market, potentially skewing the results. Removing the outlier from the data would almost certainly change the results significantly.

https://www.newsbtc.com/ethereum-news/ethereum-news-catalyst-could-trigger-triangle-breakout-to-4000/

Could bullish Ethereum news related to the launch of an ETH futures ETF be the catalyst that triggers a massive breakout of a nearly 16-month long ascending triangle pattern?

If the pattern is valid, the target is roughly $4,000 per ETH and a revisit to former all-time highs from the last bull market.

VanEck Announces ETH Futures ETF

Global asset manager VanEck, known best for its ETFs and Mutual Funds, today revealed the upcoming launch of the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF (ETUF).

ETUF will be “an actively managed ETF designed to seek capital appreciation by investing in Ether (ETH) futures contracts.”

Rather than investing in spot ETH, the Fund will trade Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ETH futures, and will be managed by the firm’s Head of Active Trading, Greg Krenzer.

ETUF will trade on CBOE alongside VanEck’s Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBTF). And although its inception of November 15, 2021 marked the end of the bull market in crypto, the introduction of Ethereum futures has the potential to kickstart the next bull run.

Ethereum News Catalyst Could Trigger Ascending Triangle Breakout

Show me the chart and I’ll tell you the news, is a famous quote from the late Bernard Baruch. The message reflects the fact that the largest technical moves tend to coincide with a news catalyst and vice-versa.

Essentially, the a bullish chart pattern could possibly appear before positive news – such as the launch of an ETH futures ETF – while the news itself is the catalyst for a strong breakout.

This is precisely what appears to be brewing in ETHUSD charts since June of 2022. Unlike Bitcoin which put in a bottom late in 2022, Ethereum found support about halfway through the year. Since then, Ether has consistently made higher lows, forming a potential ascending triangle chart pattern.

Now, the ascending triangle pattern is nearing the two-thirds point from its apex. This increases the chances of a breakout occurring as an Ethereum futures ETF gets launched have increased significantly. All that’s required is a breakout above $2,000 per ETH on higher than normal volume. Based on the measure rules, reaching the target objective could push prices to over $4,000.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-bulls-could-buck-downtrend-with-move-to-42000/

Bitcoin price is back above $27,000 per coin after holding firm at $25,000 for a second time.

If price fails to move below support and makes another run for resistance, bulls might finally buck the downtrend with a powerful, measured move to $42,000.

Recapping 2023 Using Classical Technical Analysis Methods

2023 thus far has been the year that Bitcoin went mostly sideways. The year began with a strong surge from bear market lows, but failed to instill enough confidence for instant continuation. Even an inverse head and shoulders pattern has yet to produce the expected upside target.

Instead, BTCUSD has spent months and months going sideways, unable to break above $31,000 or below $25,000 per coin. With the top cryptocurrency finding support at $25,000 a second time, bulls might finally be emboldened.

Using classical charting methods such as a the inverse head and shoulders neckline support and a simple downtrend line, we can begin to understand the technical explanation for the pause around this zone.

The Tale Of Two Retest And The $42,000 Target

It is common of an inverse head and shoulders pattern for price to throw back to former neckline resistance and retest it as support. This allows buyers to get in at lower levels, while those who bought earlier take profit.

After a retest, Bitcoin made a substantial move up breaking through a downtrend line drawn from all-time highs. However, the confidence was still not enough for proper follow through, so Bitcoin fell back to $25,000 to test the downtrend line it broke out from.

With the level tested now twice and proving to be seemingly unbreakable, bulls might finally have the confidence to meet the target of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. This target is located at $42,000 per BTC.

This chart originally appeared in Issue #21 of CoinChartist (VIP), where several other Bitcoin price charts demonstrate confluence with the target. Subscribe for free to view the rest of the Bitcoin charts.

https://www.newsbtc.com/dogecoin-2/dogecoin-price-prediction-for-2023-2024-2025-2030-beyond/

Dogecoin has been one of the most surprising and discussed cryptocurrencies since its launch in 2013. Its meme-inspired origins and 2021 hype led to spectacular price rises. This Dogecoin price prediction article analyzes factors impacting the coin’s value and predicts its future trajectory.

What is Dogecoin?

Dogecoin (DOGE) is a cryptocurrency that started as a joke based on the popular Doge meme in 2013. Software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer created it satirizing the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies.

But what began as a parody became one of the largest cryptocurrencies. DOGE runs on its own blockchain with miners validating transactions. Key features include:

Meme-inspired

The Shiba Inu dog from the Doge meme is its mascot. This makes it more approachable for mainstream investors, as does its low price compared to other assets.

Large supply

Over 140 billion DOGE have been mined so far compared to Bitcoin’s limit of 21 million.

Low price per coin

Due to the high circulation supply, DOGE trades at a fraction of a dollar making it attractive for first-time investors.

Faster transactions

DOGE offers faster payments than Bitcoin with 1 minute block times.

Tipping currency

The DOGE community utilizes it extensively for tipping and donations, especially on Reddit and Twitter.

While DOGE lacks the sophistication of platforms like Ethereum, its brand awareness makes it appealing as a payment option. Major companies like AMC Theatres and the Dallas Mavericks basketball team accept DOGE payments.

Factors Impacting Dogecoin Price

Several key factors influence DOGE’s notably volatile prices:

Celebrities and Billionaires

Public figures like Elon Musk and Mark Cuban endorsing DOGE carry outsized influence, drawing in retail investors and moving its price.

Media Hype

Attention from mainstream media outlets drives up interest and prices rapidly as seen in early 2021. But it works both ways, with DOGE falling out of favor just as fast.

Meme Power

As a meme-based asset, DOGE trends on social media significantly impact its price as hype spreads or fades. The community plays a central role.

Development Activity

While work has slowed, some upgrades like lower fees have the potential to improve DOGE adoption if development regains momentum.

Broader Crypto Market

Like most altcoins, DOGE price depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price action. When Bitcoin crashes, memecoins like DOGE usually crash harder.

Competitors

An endless stream of new memecoins like Shiba Inu and Pepe compete for investors’ attention and dollars, which impacts DOGE market share.

Historical Dogecoin Price Timeline

Looking at major developments in DOGE’s history sheds light on patterns governing its volatile price.

2013 – The Joke Begins

Dogecoin was created as a “joke currency” by programmers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in December 2013. The price remained extremely low, trading for a tiny fraction of a penny during the first year.

2014-2016 – Gaining Attention

In 2014, DOGE gained more mainstream attention during the Doge meme’s resurgence, with its market cap reaching over $60 million by end of 2014.

Dogecoin was used extensively for charitable fundraisers and tipping on Reddit/Twitter. But the price remained under one cent between 2014-2016.

2017 – Bull Run Ride

When crypto markets boomed in 2017, DOGE saw massive gains fuelled by speculation, rising from $0.0002 and peaking at $0.018 in January 2018 – a 9,000 percent rise in 2 months!

But it crashed soon after, dropping 90% in just over a month following the broader crypto downturn. Still, DOGE had proven it couldn’t be ignored.

2018-2020 – Slump Despite Growing Adoption

During the 2018-2020 bear market, DOGE struggled to gain traction again. Its price declined gradually losing over 90% of its value and falling below $0.002 in early 2019.

However, real-world payment adoption grew with providers like CoinPayments, LivingRoomOfSatoshi, and Bitpay supporting DOGE payments on e-commerce sites.

2021 – Rocketing to Fame

The 2021 bull run, especially Elon Musk’s repeated endorsements of DOGE, sent it rocketing from under one cent in January 2021 to an astonishing high of $0.7 in May 2021 – a truly unbelievable 40,000% return in four months!

Other key drivers included:

• Mainstream media coverage during the price surge. DOGE graced the covers of Newsweek and Time Magazine.
• Increased crypto adoption, especially among retail investors using platforms like Robinhood
• Major brands like Snickers and Slim Jim referenced DOGE on social media, amplifying the hype.
• Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks began accepting DOGE as payment.
• Exchange listings like eToro adding DOGE stoked investor interest.

Like past cycles, such parabolic rises proved unsustainable. DOGE dropped steadily after the frenzied peak, closing the year at around $0.15. Still an impressive overall return for 2021.

2022 – Price Crash Despite Celebrity Involvement

The 2022 crypto bear market hit DOGE hard, causing it to shed over 90% of its value, dropping below $0.05 by June 2022.

Attempts were made to revive interest, including Elon Musk’s announcement that SpaceX would accept DOGE payments for merchandise purchases. Mark Cuban’s basketball team continued accepting DOGE as payment.

But macroeconomic headwinds have kept prices depressed close to all-time lows, highlighting the weakness of memecoins during downturns.

Recent Dogecoin Price Action

2023 hasn’t been much friendlier to Dogecoin, with the cryptocurrency unable to make it above the $0.10 level and is back trading at $0.06 and is at risk of new lows.

Short-Term Dogecoin Price Prediction for 2023

DOGE outlook remains ambiguous for 2023 as the crypto markets struggle to regain footing after the FTX fallout. The meme coin remains locked in a downtrend, with the next level of support back down at under a penny. While this might feel impossible, Bitcoin retested its former 2017 all-time high, which is at the same precise point as the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target. If Dogecoin can hold the current lows, it could retarget the 0.618 or 0.382 retracement level. 

Medium-Term Dogecoin Price Prediction 2024 – 2025

If Dogecoin can break out of its downtrend and prevent further collapse, the next logical target is the 1.618 upside Fibonacci extension. If you notice, DOGE touched this target in the previous two bull markets. In 2021, DOGE extended even further to the 2.414 Fibonacci. The 1.618 Fib extension would put Dogecoin above $3.60.

Long-Term Dogecoin Price Forecast 2030

Predicting the future of a meme cryptocurrency is challenging. However, using a linear mean trajectory drawn through each cycle, we can estimate that Dogecoin could be anywhere between $1.50 and $5 by the time 2030 rolls around. This model assumes no catastrophic failure of the blockchain.

Dogecoin Price Predictions – Conclusion

Despite gaining immense popularity and value during the 2021 hype, Dogecoin lacks the real-world utility and institutional investment of leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Unless Dogecoin evolves beyond its meme-based appeal through protocol development and real use cases, it appears set to remain as a highly speculative asset prone to boom and bust cycles based on hype.

While another frenzy-driven price surge cannot be ruled out, Dogecoin’s sustainability as a long-term store of value remains doubtful according to most analysts. Traders and investors should tread cautiously with appropriate risk management.

Dogecoin Price Prediction FAQs

Here are some frequently asked questions about DOGE price prediction targets:

What was Dogecoin’s lowest price?

During its initial days in 2013-2014, DOGE hit lows of $0.0001-0.0002 on crypto exchanges. Its recent low was $0.044 in June 2022.

What was Dogecoin’s highest price?

DOGE hit an all-time high of $0.7376 during the 2021 frenzy phase in early May, rising astronomically from $0.005 in January 2021.

How high can DOGE realistically go?

Considering its past performance driven heavily by hype and celebrity endorsements, DOGE may potentially reach up to $1 temporarily during frenzied market conditions, but has poor fundamentals for sustaining high valuations long-term.

Can DOGE crash to zero?

While unlikely due to its enduring popularity as a memecoin and brand recognition, Dogecoin crashing to near-zero cannot be completely ruled out without renewed development and adoption efforts.

Why is DOGE so volatile?

Extreme volatility is built into Dogecoin’s DNA as a meme asset heavily dependent on social media hype and investor speculation rather than fundamental utility value.

When will Dogecoin’s price stabilize?

DOGE price is likely to remain volatile until (and if) it can mature beyond its “joke coin” origins and develop greater real-world utility and stable demand.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/the-subtle-signs-a-bullish-bitcoin-trend-is-brewing/

Bitcoin price remains stagnant for going on months now, with no clear trend developing and volatility in a downward spiral. However, some subtle signs are popping up that could suggest that a bullish Bitcoin trend is beginning to take shape.

Make Friends With Strong Trends

“The trend is your friend” is one of the most famous trading quotes, highlighting how capturing as much of the prevailing trend as possible can lead to the most profitable results.

For this reason, in technical analysis, trend-following tools are among the most successful. But what is an investor or trader to do when there is a clear absence of any discernible trend?

The answer is “to wait for the trend to appear” but that’s easier said than done. This is why specific tools have been created to tell when assets like Bitcoin or even stocks are trending or not. One such tool is starting to rise after several weeks of sideways price action, and it suggest that the underlying trend is strengthening.

Bullish Bitcoin Is Building Muscle

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a trend strength measuring tool, created by the father of technical indicators, J. Welles, Wilder, Jr. Other tools Wilder built include the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range, and the Relative Strength Index.

A reading above 20 on the ADX means a trend is developing. The more it turns up, the stronger the trend. After weeks of sideways, the trend is starting to strengthen again.

The tool also includes two Directional Movement indicators, the DI+ and DI-. The DI+ is currently above the DI-, showing that bulls in control of the underlying price action. All that’s left is for the ADX to strengthen further and Bitcoin could finally break out of this range and begin trending.

What Bitcoin bulls ultimately want to see next is for the ADX to grow even steeper, similar to what we can see in late 2020 and into early 2022. The lack of another strong trend at the second 2021 peak was a warning that something was off. Will the bullish trend continue to strengthen, or will bears regain control?

#Bitcoin 1W Average Directional Index is turning back up above 20 — this is the signature of a strengthening trend

DI+ is above DI- which shows bulls are in control

Trend-following tools may soon prove more useful with a trend growing pic.twitter.com/9nAUEVIcL3

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) August 14, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-futures-fakeout-the-price-divergence/

This week, Bitcoin traders braced for a breakout as an important technical buy signal triggered and BTCUSD shot up over $30,000 temporarily.

They came up short-handed, however, as the market took an immediate turn back down. Interestingly, the fakeout could have possibly been predicted by a divergence between two BTCUSD price charts.

Why Price Patterns And Technical Signals Can Fail

Price patterns are tough to trade in cryptocurrencies. Because so many eyes are on the same pattern meeting precise parameters, the market has a way of making people pay for acting on the obvious. For example, a rising wedge pattern is typically bearish, but could breakout to the upside.

The same is true for technical signals that a large portion of traders are paying attention to, such as notable crossovers and changes in momentum. This is exactly the case recently with a bullish crossover of the daily BTCUSD Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

The MACD is a momentum indicator that gives a buy signal when the MACD line crosses the signal line from below. This signal not only has appeared in Bitcoin, but it confirmed on BTCUSD spot exchanges, so what gives? It was a phony signal from the “future.”

Spot Possible Divergences With Bitcoin Futures

By “future” we mean BTC CME Futures, also known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Bitcoin derivatives product, which institutions use to speculate on the underlying price of BTCUSD. The BTC CME Futures chart doesn’t always reflect spot BTCUSD charts 1:1. Any divergences between the two platforms, has historically led to fakeouts and phony breakouts.

Part of the reason for this is due to the platform shutting down for a short period each day, and for the entire weekend starting at Friday afternoon. The result is a Bitcoin chart with more traditional market traits, such as gaps. The missing price data also changes the calculation of many technical indicators. For example, moving averages are in slightly different locations from chart to chart.

This is precisely how the recent “fakeout” higher was able to be predicted with a degree of accuracy. This discrepancy and divergence leading to false signals is nothing new and has been happening for years. When BTC CME finally participates in the same signal, the expected results often then arrive.

Is this a situation similar to Dow Theory, where the DJIA and DJTA must confirm one another for a trend to be valid? Or is there some more at play? Whatever the case may be, there’s enough historical evidence at this point to pay attention to any divergences between spot and CME Futures.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/will-record-low-volatility-awaken-a-behemoth-bitcoin-surge-4000-signal-returns/

Bitcoin price has been ranging around $30,000 for most of 2023, taking even the highest timeframes down to a record low volatility state — something highly unusual for cryptocurrencies.

As a result, Historical Volatility in the 6W BTCUSD chart has fallen to the second lowest ever reading. The last time this signal appeared, it awakened a behemoth rally.
Prices soared in the short- and long-term. Keep reading to find out by how much.

Low Volatility Suggests Behemoth Bitcoin Rally Could Be Coming

NewsBTC has extensively covered the lack of volatility in Bitcoin using the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are part of a trend-following, band-breakout trading system that also can be used to measure volatility.

But it’s not the only way to read it. Other volatility metrics include Implied Volatility, which uses the VIX to potentially predict future volatility, and Historical Volatility (HV). HV, just like it sounds, looks at volatility from the past.

The 6W Historical Volatility in BTCUSD is now at its second-lowest level ever. This is important because when an extended sideways phase ends, it ends by awakening a monster rally or decline.

Is Another Monster 4,000% Move In BTCUSD Possible

Considering it’s only happened once before, the sample size is too small to come to a conclusion about which direction prices might head. However, the last time the 6W Historical Volatility got this low, and then broke out, the direction was up.

Not only was it up, but it was an immediate more than 60% move higher in a single 6W candle. The move that began around March 2016 also kicked off a more than year-long bull market that ended with more than 4,000% ROI following the period of inactivity.

The power of volatility once it returns to an asset long trending sideways cannot be understated. Another 4,000% is unlikely after seven years of adoption, but something massive is waking up regardless of the final numbers and direction.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/why-low-volatility-bitcoin-could-last-a-lot-longer/

Much has been said in recent weeks regarding how uncharacteristically calm Bitcoin has been. On weekly timeframes, volatility measures are at their lowest ever.

Unfortunately, despite the record-setting lull, directionless sideways price action could continue for a lot longer.

Record-Breaking Low Volatility State Could Continue Longer

Bitcoin price is at a standstill compared to its usually explosive self. It’s remained locked in a tight trading range, to the point where even a $300 move to either side might feel like a major breakout.

Few points throughout history on lower timeframes have ever been this quiet. This is according to the weekly Bollinger Bands and Bollinger Band Width readings.

Extreme tightening in the Bollinger Bands suggests what’s a called a Squeeze setup — a situation where following a low volatility phase of narrowing, the bands then expand and release a wave of volatility. It could be a lot longer until that happens, however.

Examining Monthly Bollinger Band Width

While the weekly is at record tightness, using the very same tool on the monthly timeframe, shows that that there could be a lot further to go.

The Bollinger Band Width isn’t as low as it has been prior to past bull runs — notably to the lows of early 2016 and late 2020. This could suggest the possibility of months more sideways before a meaningful breakout to new all-time highs or a collapse back to lows.

None of this says much about direction thus far, but %B might hint at a move to the upside. The tool is plotted depending on price’s percentage relation to the upper, middle, and lower Bollinger Bands. As long as %B remains above 0.5 it means price is above the Bollinger Band basis — which is a 20-month simple moving average

Although we don’t know which direction Bitcoin ultimately moves, we do know that one thing is for certain: volatility will return in a major way. It’s just a matter of when, and how long we have to wait.

The #Bitcoin 1W Bollinger Bands have been the “tightest in its history” for several weeks nowhttps://t.co/1Oux6TB537

But there is a lot more going on if you turn on Bollinger Band Width and %B – two ancillary technical tools related to the BB itself

John Bollinger created the… pic.twitter.com/iGVwoBPWrg

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) August 7, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/crypto-storm-brewing-bitcoin-vortex-indicator-flashes-buy-alert/

Bitcoin has flashed an important high timeframe buy signal on the Vortex Indicator. Find out why this suggests a storm of buying could be brewing in crypto — and why it could soon suck up everything in its path.

Forecasting A Storm in Crypto

Like a meteorologist can with some degree of accuracy forecast the weather, a technical analyst can increase the probability of predicting price movements.

Both fields rely on on watching for potentially cyclical behavior, repeating patterns, seasonality, and historical trends. But instead of classifying cloud formations, technical analysts rely on Ichimoku clouds expanding and contracting with volatility, or other similar tools.

Yet another technical tool related to the elements, the Vortex Indicator, says that Bitcoin buying season is around the corner, and once it starts, it could suck in everyone that’s sidelined and then some.

About The Bitcoin Vortex Indicator

The 1M Bitcoin Vortex Indicator has crossed bullish. According to Wikipedia, a buy signal triggers when VM+ crossed above VM-. First revealed by creators Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman in 2010, the tool helps “identify the start of a new trend or the continuation of the existing trend.”

Notably, in the past, each time the buy signal triggered, the bottom in Bitcoin was in. Even during the COVID collapse the monthly Vortex Indicator didn’t give another sell signal. Also worth mentioning is the fact that it appears to give its signal on the later side, after a bear or bull market is already visible. This speaks to the tool’s use for confirming trend changes. Only a handful of the buy side signals have triggered in BTCUSD history, and each time cryptocurrencies stormed substantially higher.

The Vortex Indicator was inspired by the work from Viktor Schauberger, an Austrian forest caretaker, naturalist, philosopher, inventor and pseudoscientist. Schauberger studied the flow of water in rivers and turbines during his career. Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman developed the “idea that movements and flows within financial markets are similar to the vortex motions found in water.”

In nature, vortices are powerful forces inherent to whirlpools, tornados, and other powerful storms, known for sucking in everything in its path. Even the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is a vortex circling uncontrollably for hundreds – potentially thousands – of years. With this storm potentially changing direction, a wave of buying could be in the forecast.

The #Bitcoin monthly Vortex Indicator has triggered a buy signal

It is used to “spot trend reversals and confirm current trends”

Introduced by Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman in 2010, the Vortex Indicator gives a buy signal when VM+ crosses VM- pic.twitter.com/n82LyOv9ru

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) August 4, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/this-long-term-bitcoin-price-average-is-setting-aths/

Bitcoin price is nowhere near setting new all-time highs, but an important long-term price average is doing so, day after day, month after month.

What is this moving average being referenced, and what does it setting new highs potentially mean?

Meet The Moving Train: The 50-Month Moving Average

As Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market grind painfully sideways, a key measure using a moving average of BTCUSD price action is rising steadily, now at its highest point ever historically.

The moving average in reference is the 50-month moving average (50MA). To calculate the span, simply take the last 50 months worth of BTCUSD closing prices, add them together, then divide them by the 50 (the number of months worth of data in the period).

Traders use moving averages for a variety of reasons. This includes as trend-following tool, as trend lines, and for timing entries and exits. Such signals trigger when price passes above or below the span, or if two moving averages crossover one another in a two-moving average system. These are called a golden cross or death cross.

#Bitcoin’s 50-month moving average continues to set new record highs

Without all the noise, the primary trend points upward pic.twitter.com/HG8gjO3Gn6

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) August 2, 2023

What The 50MA Hitting ATHs Means For Bitcoin

The 50-month moving average making new all-time highs, general means the primary trend is still up. The chart above shows the long-term uptrend clearly without the noise of candlesticks or price action. With the candlesticks turned back on, Bitcoin is above the span — another bullish sign.

BTCUSD closed above the 50MA back in March 2023 and has since held above it for several months. Notably, Bitcoin lost this level for the first time back in June 2022. Meanwhile, the top cryptocurrency bottomed precisely at the 50MA in 2018 and again in 2020.

The 50MA is currently at $26,353 and could act as support of retested. If lost, it could be a sign the longer-term trend is turning bearish. The 200-week moving average, another similar high timeframe price indicator that is used widely in technical analysis, is also at a similar level and trending upwards.

This chart originally appeared in Issue #14 of CoinChartist (VIP). Subscribe for free.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-bollinger-bands-are-the-tightest-ever-what-happens-next/

Last week, the 1W Bollinger Bands in Bitcoin reached its tightest level ever. The volatility measuring tool typically doesn’t give any indication of direction, however.

Using historical data, we’ve taken all previous instances of extreme lows and the resulting direction — up and down — and discovered the success rate of the signal.

Bollinger Band Width Reaches Historical Lows: What Does It Mean?

The Bollinger Bands are a complete trading system, designed by John Bollinger in the 1980s — an avid Bitcoin speculator. The tool uses a 20-period simple moving average (SMA) and two bands set at two standard deviations of the SMA.

As such, the “Bands” expand and contract based on volatility — a measure of how aggressively price moves within a time period. When the Bands tighten to extremes, it indicates a period of low volatility. This setup is called a Squeeze, which ultimately releases pent up energy and results in a large move. When price action picks up, the bands expand to represent the return of volatility.

According to Bollinger Band Width, a related tool designed to tell analysts how tight the bands on an easier to visually compare basis, the Bollinger Bands in BTCUSD are the tightest in the history of crypto. Notably, Ethereum and the TOTAL crypto market cap are also historically tight.

The technical indicator, however, doesn’t say anything about direction, only that something big is on the way. In the past, Bitcoin has broken out in either direction. But how many of these times were up? And how far did it climb?

Bitcoin Breakout Performance Analyzed: Average 669% ROI When Volatility Returns

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but from historical price data we can better understand the behavior in BTCUSD after such low volatility phases.

Of the nine total instances the Bitcoin weekly Bollinger Bands got this tight, the top cryptocurrency by market cap rallied upward after upon breakout seven times. The average upward movement across all seven times is 872%. In contrast, the two down moves resulted in an average crash of 40%.<

Bitcoin falling 40% from here would take it back to $17,500 per coin, while a 872% move higher would take BTCUSD to over $280,000 per coin. The average of up and down moves resulted in a grand total of 669%, which would take the number one cryptocurrency to over $220,000. Considering the rule of diminishing returns, such a strong move is unlikely. However, the data speaks to the magnitude of the move that could occur, once volatility returns.

As long as #Bitcoin remains above the weekly Bollinger Band basis –– a 20-period SMA –– I am bullish

Lose the mid-BB and then I’ll talk downside pic.twitter.com/knOo0oMW5M

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) July 28, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/dont-change-the-channel-why-bitcoin-could-target-42k-if-uptrend-holds/

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has traded at or near $30K per coin for the better part of 2023.

Throughout the year, an uptrend channel has formed that is currently still holding. If support remains unbroken, it could propel BTCUSD to the top of the parallel channel which is currently located at or around $42K per coin.

A Bitcoin Price Channel For Your Viewing Pleasure

2023 might not have featured the same painful drawdowns in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as 2022 did, but the market is still doling out suffering in the form of boring, sideways price action, and crypto winter PTSD.

Although BTCUSD has mostly been ranging around the $30,000 level for months now, it has overall remained in an uptrend. Uptrends are defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Oftentimes, these uptrends are supported by drawing a trend line below intraday troughs. Depending on the price action, occasionally a parallel channel will form, providing both support and resistance on either end, keeping an uptrend from moving upward too quickly despite the general trajectory.

Such a parallel uptrend channel has formed in Bitcoin, and if the upward-sloping support trend line continues to stay solid and intact, a move to the top of the channel is likely.

Tune In To Find Out What Happens Next In Crypto

The channel began to form in late 2022, acting first as an upward-sloping support line that broke down during the FTX collapse. Bitcoin price then meandered sideways until a new, parallel upward-sloping support carried it higher. With the previous support now acting as resistance, it created the upper boundary of the parallel channel that price is now ping-ponging back and forth within.

If the current uptrend structure holds this latest selloff, a push to the upper resistance boundary is possible. As time ticks by, this upper boundary will reach $42K within the next week or two. If Bitcoin does indeed make a run for the upper boundary, this price is within striking distance by early August.

On the other hand, if the channel breaks down, it could be a sign the uptrend is over and short-lived. Failure to produce a meaningful rally could tell the market that the downtrend has resumed, and new lows are ahead.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/thbitcoin-dominance-has-potentially-peaked/

Altcoin sentiment is at extreme lows, but that’s not the only thing reaching extremes. Bitcoin dominance, a measure of the top cryptocurrency by market cap’s weight compared to the rest of the space, also reached the most extreme reading ever on a technical indicator known for its precise timing and ability to pin-point reversals.

If accurate, it’s only a matter of time until altcoins once again outperform BTC.

Why The 50% Level In Bitcoin Dominance Is Critical

In recent weeks, BTC dominance reached above 50% — an important psychological level in the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. While the metric has been much higher — and lower — in the past, the idea that one coin is the size of all others combined is a massive accomplishment.

But after reaching only 2% above the 50% zone, Bitcoin dominance has struggled to push any higher and found resistance. The first signs of a possible reversal began as XRP was deemed not a security by a US judge. Since then, the relationship between Bitcoin and alts has since switch course.

The change in course coincides with the Fisher Transform flipping downward from the most extreme reading in the history of 2W BTC.D charts.

The Fisher Transform Forecasts A Potential Altcoin Season

The Fisher Transform, created by John Elhers, converts price action into a Gaussian normal distribution in order to better highlight precise turning points in markets.

The tool’s readings are based on a standard deviation, where readings on the most extreme side of the bell curve are rare, and thus have a higher probability of reversal once the signal turns down. Such moves to extremes require enormous strength behind the underlying trend. But even the most powerful trends must eventually come to an end.

Reversing down from the highest point in 2W BTC.D history could suggest the trend favoring Bitcoin has ended, and the altcoins will perform better for the foreseeable future. Whether or not that leads to a sustainable altcoin season remains to be seen.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-xrp-ethereum-three-top-coins-golden-cross/

Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum — three of the cryptocurrency market’s most dominant coins — are about to simultaneously form a 3-day golden cross.

This signal is rare, happening only a handful of times in the past in each individual asset. However, never have all three of these major cryptocurrencies triggered this signal all at the same time. What exactly does this mean, and what are the results of the 3-day golden cross?

Bitcoin, XRP, & Ethereum Lead Market Recovery

The crypto market outlook is a lot less bleak than it was just weeks ago, between BlackRock and other institutions seeking to launch Bitcoin ETFs and the massive win for XRP and Ripple against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Even the technical environment is starting to show signs of a possible uptrend brewing. Notably, several top cryptocurrencies are inching closer to a golden cross on the 3-day timeframe, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past.

This is about to happen in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, simultaneously, for the first time in their history. Previously, these signals arrived at different phases of previous bull markets. It wasn’t until all three coins golden crossed that a stronger rally began.

Three top crypto assets — #Bitcoin, Ethereum, and #XRP — are on the brink of a golden cross on the 3-day timeframe

All three firing at the same time has never happened before

It will also be the third in history for BTC and XRP, second ever for Ether pic.twitter.com/bzVfK3ZpBp

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) July 19, 2023

What Is A Golden Cross In Crypto?

A golden cross occurs when a higher timeframe moving average, typically a 200-period MA, crosses above a lower timeframe moving average, usually a 50-period MA, from below. In contrast, a death cross happens when the two cross down from from above.

These crossovers generate a buy or sell signal in a moving average-based trading system. Such systems are designed to capture the majority of a trend, but tend to miss much of the early part of a rally as it awaits confirmation.

Moving Average Crossover: How Does The Signal Stack Up?

The only time the signal suffered a drawdown was in Bitcoin in 2019. In all other instances, the buy signal using nothing more than a simple moving average crossover, was wildly profitable with limited downside. In 2015, the BTCUSD 3-day golden cross yielded over 2,000% ROI before crossing back down and giving the corresponding sell signal. XRP’s golden cross to death cross kept more than 9,000% of the uptrend’s gains. Ethereum never fired a signal back then, however, due to insufficient price history.

Come 2019, Bitcoin had its misfire where the buy signal then sat through a long drawdown. Neither XRP nor Ethereum triggered a signal until 2020, when the entire crypto market began to rally together. The 2020 ETHUSD golden cross held onto over 1100% ROI before the death cross closed out the position. XRP failed to set a new all-time high, but the golden cross still clocked in 200% ROI.

Even though Bitcoin fired early in 2019 and sat through a drawdown, the buy signal was still ultimately effective and retained 550% ROI by the time a death cross caused the position to close. Across the five historic buy signals, there was an average of 2,570% ROI when a golden cross occurred. While such returns aren’t likely in the future, this does suggest the signal is effective.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/this-bitcoin-continuation-pattern-points-to-3-6-months-of-uptrend-ahead/

Bitcoin price is pulling back after a strong finish in the crypto market last week. However, this past Sunday night’s weekend close was also the close of the 4-week BTCUSD chart, which has potentially confirmed a high timeframe continuation pattern.

If the continuation pattern is indeed valid, it could point to 3-6 months of an extended uptrend, making 2023 an extremely bullish year in the end. Here is everything you need to know about the bullish continuation pattern and what it could mean for the crypto market.

Bullish Candlestick Continuation Pattern To Light Up Second Half Of 2023

2023 has been an interesting year in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has been mostly bullish, but nothing compared to what we’ve witnessed in the past — as recently as 2020. Meanwhile, altcoins have been long suffering an onslaught from the US SEC. This has kept Bitcoin further at bay against the US Dollar, while eating up altcoin capital on the BTC pair.

Despite an important week for the industry and BTCUSD setting a new high for the year, Bitcoin lost some momentum and is now trading below $30,000 per coin. However, before the correction happened, the 4-week BTCUSD candle also closed on Sunday night.

The 4-week timeframe is slightly more sensitive than the monthly at between 2 to 3 days less, sometimes offering unique signals from the 1-month. Sunday night’s close forever marked the chart with the last candle necessary for a completed Rising Three Method pattern.

The Rising Three Method is a bullish Japanese candlesticks continuation pattern. It consists of a large white candle, followed by three small-bodied candles in a row. After the period of consolidation, a large white candle closes above the trio of black candles, engulfing them all.

Bitcoin Buyers Make A Statement: Rising Three Method Pattern Completes

The pattern shows that after a pause, buyers resume control. By making this statement, bulls could gain control of Bitcoin over the next 3 to 6 months. The reason for the timing, is due to the length of each candle’s session. After a Japanese candlestick pattern confirms, its expected results should appear within the next 3-5 candlesticks. 3-5 sessions of 4 weeks total, equals roughly 12 to 20 weeks, or around 3-5 months.

That timing would take any potential bull rally through the end of the year. For further validation of the fact upside should appear within 3-5 candles after a confirmed signal, we can see that a morning star pattern completed during the first candlestick close of the year. The second candle of the year was a doji, then this bullish continuation pattern formed. All of this combined tells a possible story of a continued bull market for the rest of the calendar year.

The Japanese candlestick continuation pattern also comes with plenty of confluence through a confirmed bullish crossover of the LMACD. The technical indicator suggests a momentum shift supportive of more upside in Bitcoin.

Will this continuation pattern result in a strong bull market breakout?

This chart originally appeared in issue #12 of CoinChartist (VIP) alongside a dozen exclusive XRP, Bitcoin, and other charts. Subscribe for free.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/perfect-storm-why-bitcoin-crypto-dramatic-recovery/

Bitcoin is flirting with $32,000 per coin, XRP just posted a 100% intraday rally, and suddenly cryptocurrency prices are green again.

The sudden change is all part of a possible perfect storm brewing — one that leads to a dramatic recovery and new all-time highs sooner than most would expect.

“Not A Security” XRP Victory Signals Relief In Crypto

The idea that cryptocurrencies could recover at all in the recent macro environment has been scoffed at throughout 2023. Layer in the impact of the SEC putting pressure on the industry by labeling certain altcoins as securities, and few wanted to risk their money on digital coins.

But that label was just removed from XRP, and that’s all it took to double in price in just one day. XRP has since given back some of that upside, but it’s a shocking enough move to get people to start paying attention to crypto again — especially altcoins.

A rising tide also tends to lift all boats. And with Bitcoin staying buoyant above $30,000 per coin, Ethereum holding above $1,800, and the “ripple effect” happening in BTC dominance as a result of the XRP move, altcoins have already started to participate.

The DXY And The Perfect Storm For Bitcoin

So how is this set up to be a perfect storm? Cryptocurrencies have been in oversold conditions for an extended period, and order books are thinner today than they were in 2021. It won’t take much money coming in to begin to make prices move, per XRP’s example.

Today alone, hundreds of other altcoins posted substantial gains, simply because XRP is no longer labeled a security. It caused an immediate rush into other altcoins which are at bear market lows and priced at a great value compared to 2021 ATHs.

Given the previously mentioned macro landscape, many traders remain short Bitcoin and other coins, and could soon find themselves helping to push prices higher as they’re squeezed out of positions. Others aren’t short, but are sidelined and remains reluctant to buy in. This situation could result in chasing prices higher and higher.

Finally, this perfect storm is capped off by inflation cooling, the stock market approaching ATHs, and the US Dollar weakening according to the DXY. The DXY just lost the 100-point level, which potentially sent a risk-on signal to financial markets.

Interesting timing for the $DXY to take a dive coinciding with the $XRP case outcome

Really seems like a perfect storm for crypto is upon us pic.twitter.com/rjfGp9TE4O

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) July 13, 2023

With all cryptocurrencies prices in USD as their base trading pair, a perfect storm is here that could cause prices to surge unstoppably higher.

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/litecoin/pre-100x-litecoin-signal-returns-six-year-slump/

Litecoin price is now back under $100, locked within an ever tightening trading range. The lack of notorious cryptocurrency market volatility in LTCUSD in recent weeks is reminiscent of late 2016 and early 2017 — right before an epic 100x rally.

With the signal back, does this mean that another sizable surge is ahead?

A Pre-100x Litecoin Signal Is Back

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but technical analysis seeks out various signals and historical patterns in hopes of increasing the probability of success.

What can be guaranteed, however, is that after a long period of low volatility, it ends with a bang and a breakout back into a highly volatile state. Combine this behavior with the more volatile crypto asset class, and you’ve got a recipe for some serious moves.

So large in fact, that the lowest volatility that Litecoin ever reached, concluded with a breakout into a 100x rally. In less than a year’s time, LTCUSD grew from $3 to over $300.

Now that signal is back again, and it could once again lead to a huge move in Litecoin. But it doesn’t necessarily mean up.

Why Low Volatility Ends With A Bang

The pre-100x signal in LTCUSD we are talking about is the 9-day Bollinger Bands, and Bollinger Band Width. The Bollinger Bands are the second-tightest in Litecoin history.

The Bollinger Bands are a volatility-measuring tool using a simple moving average and two bands set at two standard deviations. They expand with high volatility and contract with low volatility. A low volatility state, called a squeeze, always ends with a significant move and turn to shocking volatility. But volatility is only the measure of price dispersion over a time period.

This means a that the large move, when it finally arrives, could be down. However, several other technicals support price appreciation in the future so up is also an option. What isn’t an option, is remaining in this low volatility state for much longer, so buckle up, it’s about to get interesting soon enough.

Furthermore, Bollinger Band Width has been contracting with lower highs for six full years. If the downtrend pattern breaks, the largest movement in half a decade might arrive.

#Litecoin volatility is compressing for six years now

Lowest volatility since $LTC went from $3 to $300 (100x) in 2017

Patience will be rewarded. The longer it takes, the larger the move. When it begins, it will be a sight to behold pic.twitter.com/YTtbB0TrJz

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) July 9, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/one-ingredient-missing-bitcoin-bull-run/

Bitcoin price is showing resilience in the face of adversity and is up nearly 100% from bear market lows. However, it has yet to show signs of an undeniable bull market as it has in the past.

That’s because of just one missing ingredient, according to a new BTCUSD weekly chart.

Bitcoin Bullish Momentum: The Missing Ingredient

When cooking, or especially baking, missing even one ingredient can change the end result of the desired dish or dessert. For example, sweets without any sugar just aren’t that sweet. A prime cut of steak doesn’t quite taste as good if it hasn’t had a proper seasoning and sear.

Similarly, a cryptocurrency bull market without the weekly Relative Strength Index at overbought levels, just simply isn’t a Bitcoin bull run. Historically, Bitcoin reaching oversold conditions has been a requirement for a full-bore bullish impulse. The 1W RSI is currently lacking that key signal appears to be preventing the market from pushing dramatically higher.

Why Overbought RSI Is Required For A Full-Bore BTCUSD Rally

The term “full-bore” is rather fitting, with Merriam-Webster defining it as “with maximum effort or speed.” The Relative Strength Index provides a read on momentum, by taking a measurement of the speed of price changes within a specific time period. When prices are moving exceedingly fast in one direction, maximum buying or selling effort is required.

This is precisely why reaching overbought or oversold conditions can lead to a reversal – it takes consistently increasing effort to maintain maximum speed. However, in cryptocurrencies, the speculative nature of their pricing can result in extreme phases of FOMO where conditions remain overbought at length. Such phases, called a bullish impulse, show corresponding overbought levels in the RSI historically in BTCUSD.

This particular ingredient is still missing currently in 2023, after is last appearing in 2021 and prior to that 2019. During the 2017 bull run in crypto, Bitcoin repeatedly reached overbought levels, only to return to the zone as it kept soaring higher and higher. Will BTCUSD weekly push higher and finish the recipe? Or is this a sign of a bear market rally?

This chart originally appeared in Issue #11 of CoinChartist (VIP). Subscribe now for free.

https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/link/chainlink-link-signal-returns-that-prompted-14000-surge/

Chainlink (LINK) was among a subset of cryptocurrencies that made a lower low on daily timeframes recently. A lower low is indicative of a continued downtrend and weakness at support.

However, on higher timeframes, technical tell a very different story — one of possible strength building. In fact, a signal has appeared that the last time around prompted a 14,000% rally in LINKUSD.

High Timeframe Bullish Confluence Hints At Surprise Chainlink Recovery

Chainlink (LINKUSD) remains down more than 80% from its former all-time highs. Worse yet, after a full year at bear market lows, the range broke down temporarily forming a lower low on daily charts.

In technical analysis, higher timeframes provide more dominant signals. And although there was a lower low made on the daily, the monthly timeframe did not make a lower low on a closing basis.

On top of being a possible range deviation and reclaim, the monthly candlestick formed a dragonfly doji. A dragonfly doji In Japanese candlestick analysis represents a possible bullish reversal pattern.

Within even lower timeframes, Chainlink was among a slew of altcoins they formed a different bullish Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern on weekly timeframes, called the morning star pattern.

A LINK To The Past: Oversold Stochastic No More

If bullish range reclaim on low timeframes, and a pair of higher timeframe Japanese candlestick reversal patterns aren’t enough confluence for you, there’s more.

The one-month Stochastic has left oversold territory for the first time since late 2021. The indicator spent all of 2022 oversold, and halfway through 2023.

Prior to that, the last time Chainlink left oversold conditions was back in early 2019, before going on an over 14,000% run. The signal is back and in alignment with the potential reversal patterns from above.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed much more of a recovery by comparison. The broader trend turning around more clearly could remove whatever doubt is remaining surrounding LINK, allowing the altcoin to return to its former glory days.

This chart originally appeared in Issue #10 of CoinChartist (VIP). Sign up for a free subscription.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/why-bitcoin-dominance-hints-at-a-surprise-altcoin-season-ahead/

Over the last month, a coordinated attack against altcoins by the US SEC caused Bitcoin dominance to surpass 50%. Above the psychological level makes BTC more valuable as a whole than the entire crypto market.

However, a technical signal has appeared that in the past put in a peak in BTC.D and suddenly sparked a reversal in altcoins. Here is a closer look at the signal and why a surprise alt season could be right around the corner.

Bitcoin Dominance Beats All Other Crypto Combined

Bitcoin dominance is a metric that measures the top cryptocurrency’s market cap against the weight of everything else in the space. It is often used as a barometer of health in altcoins, specifically when it’s better to be in BTC, or in alts like Ethereum, Litecoin, or Solana.

When BTC.D is falling and the market is healthy, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of alpha. But as high beta assets, alts are significantly more volatile. As a result, when the market is crashing, they suffer much more drawdown by comparison and BTC’s market share becomes increasingly dominant.

This is precisely the case all throughout 2023. Altcoins have taken a beating, but Bitcoin has held its ground. This divergence across the different types of cryptocurrencies has caused the total market cap of BTC to surpass all other coins combined. 50% dominance is clearly an important level. However, it’s a reading on the Relative Strength Index that’s particularly notable.

The BTC.D Signal Hinting At A Surprise Altcoin Season

The Relative Strength Index is a momentum measuring tool, which tells traders when an asset is overbought or oversold. In crypto, assets can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods of time. But in BTC.D, on weekly timeframes, historically it hasn’t spent much time at overbought conditions. In fact, it has only reached overbought a handful of times.

This latest push into overbought territory has reached a reading that in the past put the peak in for Bitcoin dominance and immediately turned around into an epic altcoin season. This setup last appeared in late 2019 when BTC.D was at 70%.

With such overbought conditions, combined with an Elliott Wave count indicative of a five-wave move coming to an end, an altcoin season might not be as far away as most are expecting. Although altcoins outperform in an alt season, hence the name, they require a bullish Bitcoin to bait retail to the market.

With BTC beginning to show bullish signs once again, how long until altcoins follow and ultimately outperform?

This chart originally appeared in Issue #10 of CoinChartist (VIP). Get 10% off a year subscription with this link: https://coinchartist.substack.com/NEWSBTC

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-reaches-longest-stretch-ever-without-a-bull-run/

Bitcoin is known for its explosive price movements — both bullish and bearish. However, Relative Strength Index data suggests the top cryptocurrency by market cap has gone the longest stretch ever without a bullish impulse.

Just how long has it been since the last time BTCUSD was fully bullish? And how does this data compare to past bear markets?

Reliving The Thrill Of Past Bitcoin Bull Markets

Bitcoin price is retesting $30,000 per coin and bulls are hoping it holds. If it does, yet another higher high could provide further confirmation to onlookers that an uptrend is forming.

By definition, an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows — precisely the pattern in BTCUSD since the November 2022 low. But despite this pattern, the crypto market has yet to see a true bull run.

The last major bull market began in late 2020. Prior to that, Bitcoin had a short-lived, 300% rally in 2019. Two years before that in 2017, Bitcoin spent the entire year in a bullish market.

This time around, a true bullish impulse is nowhere in sight, and barely in the rear view mirror at this point. It’s been so long since the last bull run, it has now reached the longest stretch ever according to the Relative Strength Index.

Why The Stampede Is Waiting For An Overbought RSI

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum measuring tool, which tells an investor if the asset is overbought or oversold. Unlike other assets, the speculative nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies causes them to remain overbought for longer than normal.

When this occurs, FOMO fuels a fast and furious price movement higher. Using overbought RSI signals on the weekly BTCUSD chart as a gauge of impulsive behavior, the crypto market has been without a bull market for 973 days.

When compared to past phases of bearishness and boredom, only the 2014 and 2015 bear market comes close. What was once considered the worst bear market on record lasted 959 days before becoming fully overbought on the weekly timeframe.

The bull run that followed made Bitcoin a household name and put crypto on the map. Could such a lengthy period of pain and suffering ultimately lead to another epic price increase? For that to happen, BTCUSD must first reach overbought levels on the one week RSI. But considering how long it has been, time is likely ticking away for bears.

We are currently in the longest stretch historically without a bullish #Bitcoin impulse, and yet so many still don’t think there is any chance of another one coming just yet

Impulses appear when the weekly RSI reaches overbought pic.twitter.com/r10PjtfBFM

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) June 28, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-starts-to-bite-back-says-reptilian-technical-signal/

A reptilian technical signal is back in Bitcoin, and it has started to feast upon a new uptrend, according to how the tool works.

Take a closer look below at the one-week BTCUSD Williams Alligator, and learn more about what it says about the king of the cryptocurrency market.

Bye Crypto Bear Market. See You Later, Says Alligator

Bitcoin price is back above $30,000 and the recent push higher has possibly changed the trend. That is according to the one-week Williams Alligator, which has started “eating with its mouth open.”

The Williams Alligator consists of three smoothed moving averages, set at 5, 8, and 13-periods. These averages represent what creator Bill Williams has labeled the Lips, Teeth, and Jaw of the gator, respectively.

When the three moving averages are moving upward, and the Lips are above the Teeth and Jaw, it suggests that an asset is trending. As such, the chart below suggests that Bitcoin is once again trending up.

Bitcoin Could Be Trending For A While Crocodile

As the image depicts, after Bitcoin begins trending according to the technical tool and timeframe, it continues until a climax. At that point the Alligator is sated and begins “sleeping”.

Given the recent macro environment, regulatory pressure, and more, investors might still be sleeping on the crypto market. But if you read the Williams Alligator correctly, it suggests that the gator has awakened, and an uptrend is here.

Upon examining the last three major uptrends, the current most closely resembles the 2020 rally. In 2019 the Aligator ate for 50 days before a peak. In 2021, it lasted 75 days. But the big one in 2020 lasted a full 350 days before a reversal.

Thus far, the Alligator started eating 125 days ago, surpassing 2019 and 2021 combined. Yet it’s not even halfway done with its meal if the rally is as strong as 2020. How long will the Williams Alligator stay hungry for BTC?

The 1W Williams Alligator is hungry for more expensive #Bitcoin

It has started eating with an open mouth, thus following the trend

It is done dining when the 5, 8, and 13 (Fib numbers) period smoothed MAs cross and turn down

Eat, or be eaten pic.twitter.com/V12PykySYr

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) June 27, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/gm-morning-star-pattern-altcoins-crypto/

Like a strong cup of highly-caffeinated coffee or the sound of a rooster crowing at the crack of dawn, some things have the potential to be a real eye-opener.

When it comes to altcoins, crypto investors could get a wake up alarm they won’t be able to ignore. Keep reading to learn all about the morning star pattern that recently appeared on the weekly chart of several blue chip cryptocurrencies.

Why Crypto Could Be In For A Good “Morning”

Earlier in June, the United States SEC launched an onslaught of enforcement action against Binance and Coinbase. Many top altcoins were named as securities in the case. This list explicitly mentioned MATIC, SOL, and a handful of others.

The result was a deep selloff, severely worsened as US-based institutions began unloading altcoin holdings en masse without care of market impact.

However, following the news that BlackRock and several other institutions were filing for Bitcoin ETFs, the market staged a strong recovery.

The rebound was especially powerful in altcoins, which have been extremely oversold in the midst of the ongoing regulatory uncertainty. The sharp turnaround was also enough to form a morning star pattern in many top cryptocurrencies

.

The Morning Star Pattern: A Wake Up Call For Altcoins

A morning star pattern has formed on blue chip altcoins like Ethereum, Litecoin, Chainlink, and Fetch.ai. This type of Japanese candlestick pattern is a potential bullish reversal pattern with powerful implications.

The pattern solidified with Sunday night’s weekly close, but to fully confirm must be followed by further upside. This upside is expected to materialized within 3-5 candlesticks, or in this case, weeks.

With many of these more fundamentally-sound and regulator-friendly coins recovering most of what they lost in June, follow through could spark a more significant bullish trend across the brutalized altcoin space.

This chart originally appeared in Issue #9 of CoinChartist (VIP). Get 10% off a year subscription with this link: https://coinchartist.substack.com/NEWSBTC

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/momentum-why-the-bitcoin-train-station/

The latest Bitcoin price action has pushed momentum into the positive on just about every timeframe that matters: From today the daily through the monthly.

If these signals confirm with a June monthly close, the train might have officially left the station when it comes to the next crypto bull run.

BTCUSD Momentum Builds Across Multiple Timeframes

Imagine a train that’s come to a complete stop. It’s a lot easier to board a train as it’s idle, and before it has gained momentum. Momentum starts off slow, then once the train really begins rolling it picks up seemingly unstoppable steam. Slowing back down takes force, time, and distance before it once again comes to a stop. Getting in the train’s path can prove dangerous.

If Bitcoin price can continue to climb through the end of June, strengthening bullish momentum will confirm across nearly every significant timeframe from the daily to the weekly to the monthly.

That is according to the LMACD, which in the chart below shows the following timeframes forming a bullish crossover and buy signal: 1D, 3D, 1W, 2W, 3W, and 1M (clockwise). Such a signal could mean the train has left the station.

Are The Stars Aligning For A Bitcoin Bull Run?

Much like when stars align, people expect something special, the majority of important timeframes signaling strengthening momentum could mean like a locomotive, Bitcoin is starting to gain steam.

And once that begins, and the train leaves the station, it isn’t quite as easy to get on for a ride. However, it isn’t fully clear if yet if that phase has begun, or if the train has a few more stops before it moves onto its final destination.

In contrast, the weekly LMACD crossover could fail and cause the monthly crossover to follow and diverge downward. At that point, things could get dicey for crypto and put lower timeframe bullish crossovers in serious jeopardy. Anyone aboard the train currently would more than likely end up disappointed.

What do you think? Has the train left the station in Bitcoin?

This chart originally appeared in Issue #9 of CoinChartist (VIP). Get 10% off a year subscription with this link: https://coinchartist.substack.com/NEWSBTC

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-breaks-above-30000-is-the-bull-run-back-on/

Bitcoin price is back above $30,000 for the second time in 2023, with bulls hoping it not only holds this time, but leads to renewed confidence in the crypto market.

Is this a sign the bear market is over and the bull run is back on? Or is this just a bear market rally that will result in new lows eventually? Let’s take a closer look at the latest price action.

Bitcoin Price Reclaims $30,000 Following Shift In News Cycle

Just a week ago, the SEC was waging a war against altcoins, and there was negative news around every turn for the crypto market. In a flash, the news cycle turned positive with a slew of Wall Street brands making their presence known in the crypto space. Names include BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Sequoia Capital, Fidelity, and others.

Within days of the news making rounds, Bitcoin price is already back above $30,000 per coin, leaving bears who expected new lows bewildered and in disbelief.

Why $31,000 Is The Level To Watch With $30K Broken

Not only is BTCUSD back above $30,000 per coin, but it is already quickly approaching $31,000. A higher high on any timeframe could send further confirmation to investors that a bottom is in for cryptocurrencies. Investors and traders who were too fearful to buy lower might finally see these levels as a safer entry.

But Bitcoin isn’t yet out of the woods. $31,000 is the current local high for 2023, and that level must be taken out to further confirm an uptrend. An uptrend, by definition, is a series of higher highs and higher lows. With a higher low made at precisely $25,000 – the only thing that is missing is this higher high above $31,000. Will we get it as soon as today or this week?

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-prepares-ichimoku-cloud-breakout-will-crypto-storm-to-new-aths/

Bitcoin price has made an intraday move higher, pushing above the Ichimoku cloud on BTC CME Futures daily charts.

This signal in the past sent the entire cryptocurrency market soaring higher. Will crypto once again continue to storm ahead, or is it about to rain more pain on investors?

Bitcoin Storms Above $28,000 After Technical Breakout

BTCUSD made a 4% move higher today. While the number is rather insignificant, the minor rally was enough for a major breakout of the Ichimoku cloud on daily timeframes.

Importantly, the signal has only appeared on BTC CME Futures daily charts thus far. On spot BTCUSD charts, Bitcoin has a little more to climb. However, the breakout on the BTC1 continuous contract chart could be a prelude of what’s to come.

Shortly after price action peeked above the top of the cloud, the top cryptocurrency by market cap immediately stormed toward $28,000 per coin. And if history is anything to go by, sky could be the limit on higher prices.

Bitcoin has breached above the cloud | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Blasting Above The Cloud Could Mean Liftoff For Crypto

The Ichimoku cloud consists of Senkou span A and B. When these two spans twist it turns the cloud from green to red, or from red to green. The cloud itself also expands and contracts based on price volatility, and can act as support and resistance.

Bitcoin escaping the Ichimoku cloud was a crucial breach of dynamic resistance. In the comparison above, BTC leaving the cloud in 2020 led to the most recent bullish rally in crypto. In 2021 after the second top at $68,000 per coin, Bitcoin then retested the cloud and fell right through it.

This time, not only did the retest hold, but today’s rally just pushed BTC CME Futures daily chart above the cloud, the Tenkan-sen, and the Kijun-sen. This means that according to the Ichimoku, there is very little daily resistance left. If Bitcoin does behave like the last time it left the cloud, it could be time for liftoff.

A close above the cloud could clear #Bitcoin for liftoff

2020×2023 pic.twitter.com/CtC9RyEXen

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) June 20, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/litecoin/litecoin-daily-death-cross-crypto-halving/

Litecoin price has sank recently along with the greater crypto market, despite not being named a security by the US SEC.

The downward pressure has the altcoin at risk of forming a death cross on the daily timeframe. Although the signal sounds ominous and often indicates a downtrend is coming, it might not be lights out for LTC after all. Let’s take a look.

Lackluster Litecoin Performance Ahead of Halving Attributed to SEC

With Litecoin’s halving just weeks away, the currently eleventh-ranked cryptocurrency by market cap was expected to perform better than it has.

Fundamental and technical signals both point to LTC being undervalued, yet the coin has suffered alongside other altcoins from SEC-related sell pressure.

The US SEC is trying to kill the crypto industry, and its causing LTCUSD daily charts to inch closer to an ominous death cross.

Doing A Double-Take On The Daily LTCUSD Death Cross

A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average from above. This is considered a sell signal in a moving average-based trading system, and often precedes a negative trend change. But not always.

A closer look at the 2020 death cross into golden cross | LTCUSD on TradingView.com

The chart above shows an example of a previous death cross from late 2020, which immediately rolled into a golden cross as soon as Litecoin found some support and started rising again.

LTCUSD went on a massive rally lasting several weeks of upside. For this situation to repeat, Litecoin absolutely has to recover from current levels and resume its formerly bullish momentum. Otherwise, a death cross could lead to renewed selling from investors who expected more out of the halving.

Death cross and golden crosses can sometimes trigger back and forth in a choppy market, which is a drawback of using moving averages as trading signals. This is due to volatile price action pulling the faster moving average back and forth through the slower moving average. Furthermore, as an average of price action, moving averages are lagging indicators in general.

A golden cross must be left on the chart when the all the consolidation ends, otherwise the looming death cross signal could have truly deadly implications. With Litecoin’s halving scheduled for under 45 days from now, anything is possible.

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-recovers-above-critical-level-2023/

Bitcoin CME Futures BTC1 front month continuous contract price action closes over the weekend, making Friday evening the closing bell for the week. This Friday’s close saw price recover above a crucial level that in the past led to a bullish impulse in crypto. Here is a closer look at why bulls could be ready to charge in the coming weeks.

Using BTC CME Futures As A Crypto Crystal Ball

Large institutional traders don’t just trade spot BTCUSD, nor do they trade on Binance, ByBit, or another crypto platform. When they want to speculate and trade using derivatives contracts, they look to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, better known as CME Group.

Unlike the 24/7, always-on crypto market, CME Group charts close down for the weekend and holidays much like stocks. Due to this behavior, the chart often features gaps that don’t appear on standard BTCUSD price charts. Discrepancies between BTC CME Futures charts and BTCUSD charts can lead to fakeouts and shakeouts.

Because Bitcoin CME Futures does stop on Friday for the weekend, it also can provide early clues as to how spot price charts might close on Sunday night. In this case, BTC Futures has reclaimed the Bollinger Band basis line, often referred to as the “mid-BB”.

Bitcoin Price Recovers Above The Bollinger Band Basis Line

The basis line on the Bollinger Bands is a 20-period simple moving average. The tool’s creator, John Bollinger, then adds an upper and lower band set at two standard deviations of the SMA. This causes the bands to expand and contract with market volatility.

Like any moving average, it can act as dynamic support and resistance, holding up price action or preventing it from pushing along further. Following this Friday’s BTC Futures weekly close, Bitcoin has made it back above the mid-BB, possibly confirming it as support.

In the upper portion of the chart above, Bitcoin goes on an impulsive uptrend after holding above the basis line in 2019 and 2020. The lower portion depicts a closer look at this latest weekly close. Unless there is a massive collapse before Sunday night, BTCUSD technicals should follow suit. And if history repeats, a bull run could follow.

Is Bitcoin ready for a strong rally higher after reclaiming the key level as support? This chart was featured in issue #8 of CoinChartist (VIP) alongside a dozen other exclusive crypto charts. Click here to learn more.

https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/xrp/xrp-bullish-trend-strengthens/

The number sixth ranked cryptocurrency by market cap, XRP, is showing signs of a strengthening bullish trend according to a technical indicator designed to measure the underlying power behind price movements. 

Historically, when a particular signal appears on the monthly timeframe, a breakout occurs and sends the coin soaring higher. 

XRP Trend Strength Rises Above Key Level As Bulls Get Bold

XRP is still stuck at the center of a legal battle with the SEC, but technicals are potentially pointing toward a positive outcome in the case. That is according the Average Directional Index, which shows a strengthening bullish trend on weekly timeframe. 

The ADX was created by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. who also developed the Relative Strength Index, Parabolic SAR, and Average True Range. It was designed to gauge trend strength. 

A reading above 20 indicates a growing trend, while a reading below the level suggests a lack of a clear trend. When readings reach 50 or higher, a trend is strong but possibly becoming overextended. XRP weekly charts are currently at 25 and marching higher. 

Getting Directions From The Crypto Market On What’s Ahead

The ADX uses two other indicators in its calculation: the positive directional indicator and negative directional indicator. If the +DI is above the -DI then the market is bullish and vice versa. 

In the image above, the +DI is above the -DI highlighting that bulls are in control on the weekly timeframe. The same is true on monthly timeframes, yet the largest moves in XRP arrive when the +DI rises above the ADX itself. 

The ADX takes both the -DI and +DI and combines them, then smoothes the results. As such, the stronger the +DI becomes, the more it influences the ADX to increase. Could a growing weekly trend and ADX help give the monthly +DI that it needs?

If the monthly DI+ can spike above the ADX, #XRP will have one hell of a run pic.twitter.com/rzb4iTpvDK

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) June 14, 2023

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ethereum/down-look-down-ethereum-rally/

Ethereum is finding itself in a very dangerous position, with its fate possibly in the hands of the US SEC: Is it a security, or is it a commodity? Is it decentralized enough? 

While the industry figures itself out,  it is now or never for an ETHUSD rally, or there is heightened risk of a catastrophic breakdown in the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. 

Will Carnage Across Crypto Cause Ethereum To Collapse?

Ethereum and most other altcoins have taken a brutal beating lately, brought on by enforcement actions taken by the US SEC against top crypto exchanges. While Ether hasn’t been caught up in the list of cryptocurrencies labeled securities, the market is skeptical that it wont also find itself among the SEC’s list. 

Ethereum isn’t quite as “safe” as Bitcoin from regulatory scrutiny due to its recent change to proof-of-stake. However, it is arguably decentralized enough, which could turn out to be a key measure of what does or doesn’t make a security, according to the recent Hinman docs. 

Why ETHUSD Is At A Critical Inflection Point

A technical price bounce in ETHUSD is necessary at this point, or else it could find itself at risk of total collapse. That is if the long term rising wedge pattern breaks down from this level. In contrast, if the level holds, the top trend line of the wedge is located at roughly $10,000 per token. 

From a risk versus reward standpoint, the stakes are high — stratospheric new all-time highs at some point, or unprecedented new lows and the worst bear market in Ethereum’s history.  And it all comes down to this pattern. 

With such little liquidity in crypto, a clouded regulatory climate, and economic turmoil everywhere, a negative ruling in the loosely related XRP case could ultimately push Ether off the cliff it’s hanging from. Meanwhile, returning risk appetite and a pause in interest rate hikes combined with a positive ruling in the XRP case or elsewhere in the SEC drama, could save Ethereum from certain doom.