The Shiba Inu ecosystem is buzzing with renewed excitement as whale activities are rising and daily transactions are surging to new levels. Amid SHIB’s price stagnation over the past few years, these developments could propel the cryptocurrency’s value to new highs. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Burn Rate Spikes By Nearly 200% As Price Recovers Shiba Inu Whale Activity On The Rise Popular doggy-themed cryptocurrency SHIB has recently experienced a massive rise in whale inflows. According to data released by crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, Shiba Inu experienced a surge of 2,595% in large holder inflows. The cryptocurrency witnessed a substantial surge between Wednesday, February 7, and Friday, February 9, resulting in an impressive spike in inflows from 275.2 billion SHIB to a staggering 2.31 trillion SHIB. Additionally, around Thursday, February 8, and February 9, the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency witnessed another surge, as large holder inflows rose from 1.4 trillion SHIB to 2.31 trillion SHIB. These large gains have marked a notable shift in investor sentiment regarding SHIB, effectively capturing the attention of the broader cryptocurrency market. Lately, there has been an evident increase in whale activities within the Shiba Inu ecosystem. This has led market watchers and investors to closely monitor the token, seeking insights into factors driving these significant whale movements. Shiba Inu’s marketing lead and influencer, Lucie, has also projected a bullish outlook for the company. According to her post on X (formerly Twitter), Shiba Inu could be one of the major altcoins taking advantage of the 2024 bull run. She explained that when the bull market phase starts and capital pours into prominent cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and other major altcoins, the momentum will likely extend into Shibarium, potentially triggering a price surge for SHIB. SHIB Sets Course For Potential Price Surge In addition to the rise in whale activities, SHIB has experienced a notable increase in daily transactions and new active users. Data from ShibariumScan reveals a surge in daily transactions from 526,090 on February 9 to 2.04 million on February 11. At the time of writing, daily transactions have dropped slightly, standing at 1.88 million. The surge in large investor purchases and daily transactions could indicate a possible spike in the price of Shiba Inu soon. Usually, a rise in transactional volume signifies an increase in investor interest and adoption of a cryptocurrency, which further contributes to increased demand and potentially impacts market sentiment. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of SHIB is currently at $0.0000095, reflecting an impressive 2.76% gain in the past 24 hours. Crypto previously struggled to keep up with the pace of bullish trends in the crypto market. Related Reading: Shiba Inu On Cusp Of Lunar Launch As 1.3 Trillion SHIB Barrier On Crosshair However, with recent positive developments fueling market sentiment, Shiba Inu may be poised to experience an exponential surge if it can break through key limitations and price resistance. Cover image from Dall-E, chart from Tradingview
[toc] What Is SUI? Sui (pronounced “Swee”) is a decentralized Layer 1 proof of stake blockchain, meaning it serves as the foundational infrastructure for verifying and processing transactions, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Layer 1 blockchains are the backbone that supports a specific token or a network of different tokens. Sui was developed by Mysten Labs, a group of former Meta employees. It is designed to limit how long it takes to execute smart contracts and support scalability for decentralized applications (dApps). The network believes it has cracked the code on smart contract execution in terms of speed, high security, and low gas fees. This is possible because of the programming language it was designed with called “Move”. Move is a Rust-based programming language that prioritizes fast and secure transaction executions. According to the whitepaper, the network is named after the element water in Japanese philosophy, a reference to its fluidity and flexibility that developers can use to shape the development of Web3. The network is focused on low latency and super scalability. This has seen it termed by supporters as “the Solana Killer.” Related Reading: Solana Meme Coin Season: A Guide to Buying, Trading, And Profiting From SOL Tokens The Sui project was announced by Mysten Labs in September 2021, and in December 2021, Mysten Labs invested $36 million into the project. This was followed by a $300 million series B announcement led by a $140 million commitment by FTX in 2022, valuing the startup at $2 billion. Reasons Why Sui Network Was Created In the words of Sui Co-Founder and CEO, Evan Cheng, the current Web3 infrastructure is slow, expensive, and notoriously unreliable. Given this, Cheng said the network was created to change the Web3 game with some 5G level upgrades that would allow developers to create blockchain-powered applications with scalability that you can only associate with centralized technology hubs that dominated Web 2.0. In other words, the Sui network was created to solve Web3 problems by simplifying and improving the creation of various applications and functions in the Web3 ecosystem, solving the most common problems in the Web3 industry: speed, security, and stability. How Does The Blockchain Work? Sui operates as a Layer 1 blockchain focused on optimizing fast blockchain transfers. It places a high level of importance on immediate transaction finalization, making Sui an ideal platform for on-chain applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and other real-time use cases. Unlike the existing Layer 1 blockchains where transactions are added one after the other, which makes it slow as more transactions are being added to the blockchain, Sui does not make every transaction go through all the computers in the network. Instead, it picks the relevant part of the data it needs to check, which eliminates the problem of congestion on the blockchain and drastically reduces gas fees to carry out transactions. The Sui network uses a permissionless set of validators to reduce latency and a protocol called the Delegate Proof of Stake system. It has epochs (each consisting of 24 hours), during which Sui holders select a set of validators with whom they store their staked tokens. The validators are then in charge of transaction selection and approval. Related Reading: How To Buy And Trade Tokens On The SEI Network Who Are The Brains Behind The Sui Network? Co-Founder and CEO Evan Cheng: Cheng previously worked at Apple for 10 years, and he was also the former Head of Research and Development at Novi and Technical Director of Meta. The Chief Scientist George Danezis: Former researcher at Novi, Meta, and previously worked at Chainspace, Microsoft. Adeniyi Abiodun, CPO: Former Head of Product Development at Novi, Meta. Previously worked at VMware, Oracle, PeerNova, HSBC, and JP Morgan. Kostas Chalkias: Former leading cryptographer at Novi. He previously worked at R3, Erybo, Safemarket, and NewCrypt. Sam Blackshear, CTO: Former Chief Engineer at Novi, specializing in the Move programming language. Investors and Institutions Backing The Network Sui was valued at $2 billion after FTX Ventures committed $140 million to the project. However, Sui also has other credible investors who also committed, like Binance Labs, the largest centralized crypto exchange by daily trading volume, and Coinbase Ventures, the largest crypto exchange in the United States. Other investors included Franklin Templeton, a global leader in asset management with more than seven decades of experience, and Jump Crypto, an experienced team of builders, developers, and traders. Apollo, Lightspeed Venture, Circle Ventures, Partners, Sino Global, Dentsu Ventures, Greenoaks Capital, and O’Leary Ventures also invested in the blockchain. Uses of Sui Coin SUI coin plays a crucial role within the ecosystem and serves various functions: Governance: Sui coin holders can participate in governance decision-making, which includes parameter adjustments, protocol upgrades, and other key network changes. This means SUI holders have a say in the direction and development of the Sui Network. Transaction Fees: SUI coin is used to pay for transaction fees within the network. The coin acts as the medium of exchange to cover all associated fees, whether you are interacting with smart contracts, transferring assets, or participating in any Sui on-chain activity. Utility: The native coin will be used in various decentralized applications (dApps), gaming applications, and other projects built on the network. It will be used to purchase in-game accessories and NFTs. Staking: Staking SUI coin helps network security and consensus. SUI coin holders who stake their coins are being rewarded and given incentives for participation and engagement. Investment: Investors can buy and hold or trade SUI coins as an investment on centralized exchanges, just like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, BNB, and all other blockchains with good use cases. Related Reading: What Is Kaspa (KAS) Blockchain? Sui Network Plans To Improve The Web3 Ecosystem Transaction Speeds Sui Network aims to solve the slow transaction problems on Web3. The network was built on a Rust-based programming language called Move, which prioritizes fast and secure transaction executions. Transactions on the Sui network are validated in epochs of 24 hours, each epoch can be validated independently rather than in blocks like it’s done on traditional blockchains. The parallel execution of transactions increases Sui network transaction speed to 297,000 transactions per second and 400 milliseconds time of finality compared to Ethereum’s 20 transactions per second and 6 minutes time of finality or Solana’s 10,000 transactions per second and 2.5 seconds time of finality. Focus On Web3 And Asset Ownership The Sui network is focused on improving Web3 and Web3 experience by catering to the needs of millions of users, which includes speed and security. Sui allows users to create, upgrade, and deploy decentralized applications and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) Scalability Sui Network aims to make Web3 more scalable through parallel processing or execution. This means that the Sui network identifies independent transactions and processes them simultaneously. The implication is that transaction times are reduced, and it accommodates larger transactions loaded per time. It is made possible because of the Sui implementation of the Move programming language and the Narwhal-Bullshark-Tusk Consensus algorithm, which focuses on the details of a transaction rather than the entire chain of transactions. The Tokenomics Of SUI coin Sui’s native token is called SUI, which has several use cases. According to Coingecko, the max and total supply of SUI is capped at 10 billion coins with a current circulating supply of 1.2 billion, and it is ranked number 48 based on market cap value. Related Reading: WHAT IS XRP LEDGER (XRP)? A share of the total supply of SUI was made liquid at the launch of its mainnet on May 3, 2023. Sui’s all-time high was on the day it was launched at $2.16. However, it is currently trading at $1.51, which is a 320% pump from its all-time low of $0.364 last year on October 19. The tokenomics included 6% going to its Community Access Program and App Testers, 10% of the supply went to the Mysten Labs Treasury, 14% went to its Investors, and 20% went to Early Contributors. The vast majority of the supply, 50%, is kept in its Community Reserve. The purpose and distribution of the Community Reserve include a Delegation Program, Grant Programs, Research & Development, and Validator Subsidies, as shown in the illustration below: Only about 5% of SUI coins were already in use when the Sui Mainnet launched, while the rest will be gradually released according to their planned schedule, as shown below: Related Reading: What Is Sei (SEI) Network? Conclusion Sui Network aims to improve Web3 by giving every Web3 user a much better Web3 experience without the struggles of slow transaction speeds. The network uses parallel execution for transactions to ensure lightning-fast speed, high security, and low gas fees.
In a new development for their partnership, MultiversX has announced its integration with Google BigQuery, marking a significant milestone in making blockchain data more accessible and insightful, per an official post. Related Reading: xDay 2023 Day 2: Google And MultiversX Join Hands, How The Big Tech Giant Will Support The Community MultiversX Ecosystem Gains a Boost With BigQuery Integration This integration hints at potential growth for the MultiversX ecosystem, underscoring the network’s commitment to enhancing the user experience and assisting its developer community by providing them with new tools. With this latest collaboration, Google replicates its role as the internet’s information custodian by making MultiversX’s blockchain data readily accessible through BigQuery. This platform operates as an enterprise-grade cloud data warehouse. The official post claims this move will “democratize access to blockchain insights, offering unprecedented transparency and analysis capability to users and developers alike.” Integrating BigQuery enables anyone with an account to delve into the MultiversX network’s intricacies without needing specialized software or the lengthy process of syncing the ledger. Users can now easily query the network’s data, including details about the top 100 block producers, daily transaction counts, and much more, as seen in the chart below. This capability is expected to drive further innovation and development within the MultiversX ecosystem. Lucian Mincu, CIO of the MultiversX Foundation, highlighted the significance of this development, stating: Analyzing and interpreting data to reveal useful insights about product usage is a science barely explored in the web3 space. Having Google resolve a big part of the hassle for MultiversX projects is an important step towards making dApps better, more useful, and more appealing to the masses. Google Support Accelerates MultiversX Development In addition to data accessibility, the partnership between MultiversX and Google Cloud encompasses a wide range of initiatives to accelerate Web3 adoption and ecosystem expansion. As announced during the xDay 2023 Conference in Bucharest, Romania. These include a startup accelerator program, hackathons, developer initiatives, and joint business developments. MultiversX’s presence at the company’s booth at GITEX Global in Dubai in 2023 exemplifies the partnership’s deepening collaboration. The partnership also shows Google Cloud’s commitment to supporting the blockchain community, as highlighted by Daniel Rood, Head of Web3 EMEA for Google Cloud. The partnership aims to drive adoption, “accelerating” the growth of the MultiversX ecosystem and, by extension, the broader Web3 space. With Google’s backing, MultiversX is poised for accelerated growth, bringing new opportunities for users and developers. Related Reading: Solana Suffers 11th Outage In 2 Years, SOL Price Drops 3% As blockchain technology continues to evolve, partnerships between MultiversX and Google BigQuery are pivotal in shaping the future of digital assets and Web3. By enhancing data accessibility and supporting the development community, MultiversX and Google are setting new standards for innovation and collaboration in the blockchain space. Chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has been unable to retain its bullish momentum and seems likely to extend its current downside trend. However, the long run remains positive, and the next months could see BTC reach its all-time high, but in a different fashion than in previous rallies, according to a large investor. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Weekend Rally Amid New Banking Crisis: Arthur Hayes As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $42,000 with a 1% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency still records a 5% profit. Bitcoin Whales Makes Bullish Forecast According to a pseudonym Bitcoin Whale that goes by “Joe007” on social media X, the cryptocurrency is poised for a bull run. The institutions trading the US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) will drive this bullish momentum. In that sense, these institutions are likely to suck the volatility out of Bitcoin by pushing to trade similar to traditional assets. Thus, Joe007 claims that this cycle’s rally will lack the excitement of 2017 and 2021 when BTC hit $20,000 and $69,000, respectively, creating euphoria amongst investors. The Bitcoin whale stated: I think we’re about to witness the most boring rally in Bitcoin history. No retail-driven parabolic swings that excite degens/noobs and produce headlines. Rather a slow relentless drive higher by professional accumulators taking out layer after layer of paper handed holders. The whale dismissed the possibility when asked if traditional institutions could fail in “taming” BTC due to the “systemic crises” in the space. In addition, Joe007 dismissed the possibility of the cryptocurrency not running higher in the long run. The only thing that could stand between Bitcoin and a rally is a “low probability” scenario where the traditional finance sector experiences a similar crash to 2008. The BTC whale added: (…) unless there is a sudden complete tradfi meltdown (2008-style or worse). Then I can see Bitcoin being dragged into a general panic-crash, at least initially. Certainly possible but hard to assign realistic probability. BTC Price In The Short Term On low timeframes, an analyst pointed at the Daily On Balance Volume (OBV), which suggests further downside for BTC. The chart below shows that this metric broke out of a trending channel during Bitcoin’s recent crash. Related Reading: Bitcoin Halving Prep: Analyst Outlines Key Points Ahead Of Event The OBV was rejected out of a critical level and seems poised to trend to the upside along with the price of BTC. The analyst stated: Daily OBV still looks like it wants more downside. Looks like this might have been a lower high that we just put in. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Solana has been on a downward trend over the past week, following a surge from multi-year low levels. The token suffered when its biggest promoter, crypto exchange FTX, fell, but the ecosystem continued to thrive, leading to the high timeframe recovery. Related Reading: Solana Price Soars By 11% – Here’s Why As of this writing, Solana’s native token SOL trades at $87 with a 2% profit over the past 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, the cryptocurrency records a 12% correction. Rising Stars In The Solana Landscape According to a report from Coingecko, the Solana network is witnessing a resurgence fueled by its recovery in the cryptocurrency market, notable reductions in network outages, and a series of positive developments. This rejuvenation has drawn the attention of investors and developers and led to a surge in the adoption of existing projects within its ecosystem. Specific projects stand out among these, poised to shape the future of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on Solana, Coingecko claims. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) such as Jupiter, Orca, and Drift are at the forefront of Solana’s innovation. Jupiter is “transforming” the landscape with its limit-order decentralized swap services, offering a DEX aggregator to ensure users get the optimal price offers. The chart below shows that its daily trading volume, involving around 90,000 unique wallets, has reached an average of $400 million. Orca, another DEX, has a concentrated liquidity feature, Whirlpools, which enhances returns for liquidity providers and reduces slippage for traders. With a total value of approximately $185 million, Orca’s community-driven governance model is another selling point to attract new users in the coming months. Drift is a decentralized perpetual trading platform, allowing traders to engage with up to 20x leverage. It integrates a series of features, including a money market for decentralized lending, offering additional passive income opportunities through staking and market maker rewards. Furthermore, Solend, Marginfi, and Kamino are making strides on the lending front. Solend, a prominent money market, enables users to lend and borrow crypto assets, with over $165 million locked in its smart contracts. Marginfi, boasting over $345 million in tokens locked, enhances the lending experience with advanced risk management technologies. Kamino, another lending platform, manages over $242 million in assets. It offers liquidity through CLMM-based lending vaults, allowing users to deploy tokens in yield-bearing programs. Emerging Projects: Helium And Render Network In addition to these platforms, the report identified projects that could benefit from the surge of interest in Solana over the long run. These include Marinade Finance and Jito. Marinade Finance, with over $1 billion in assets, offers maximized returns through liquid staking and immediate unstaking options. Jito, enhancing staking yields via MEV rewards, boasts about 6.7 million SOL staked across its platform. In the world of NFTs, collections like Mad Lads and Tensorians are gaining popularity. Mad Lads, a unique collection of 10,000 artworks, reached a new all-time high in floor price, reflecting the increasing interest in Solana-based NFTs. According to the report, Helium and Render Network are two emerging projects within the Solana ecosystem worth watching. Helium, a decentralized connectivity service provider, utilizes Solana’s blockchain to remit and administer its internet services. Its multi-token system incentivizes hotspot owners and fosters the expansion of decentralized internet facilities. Render Network, expanding to Solana in 2023, offers GPU rendering services for creators. By renting out excess GPU power, artists can produce high-resolution graphics with the Render token (RNDR) as the network’s remittance token. Related Reading: SOL Price Recovery Could Soon Fade If Solana Fails To Clear This Hurdle The Solana ecosystem, marked by innovation and rapid growth, solidifies its position in the smart contract blockchain space. Its diverse projects, from DEXs and lending protocols to staking solutions and NFT collections, showcase the network’s dynamic and burgeoning landscape. With the SOL token climbing the ranks, Solana’s ecosystem is poised for continued expansion and success in the years ahead. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin network and its underlying assets have evolved since its launch in 2009, and keeping up with the changes and updates can be challenging. In a post, financial strategist Lyn Alden broke down five key metrics to help BTC investors assess the network’s current state. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Drops Sub $39,000 – 3 Key Reasons Beyond Price: A Look At The Bitcoin Network Vitality As Lyn Alden suggests, a deeper dive into the Bitcoin network is essential for any investor. This approach offers a more nuanced understanding of Bitcoin’s status, moving past the “superficialities of price fluctuations” to gauge its true potential and challenges. Alden claims that price may not capture the complete story but remains a critical signal of adoption and market positioning. Bitcoin competes not just with other cryptocurrencies but also with traditional assets like gold and fiat currencies. Its fluctuating price reflects its relative youth and volatility compared to more established currencies. However, its fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoin provides an alternative to the constantly inflated supply of fiat currencies, such as the US dollar. The analyst stated: The Bitcoin network itself might be serving as a heartbeat of clockwork order in a world of chaos, but price is nonetheless a measure of its adoption. Bitcoin has consistently shown an upward trend, historically making it one of the best-performing assets, as seen in the chart below. The uptrend in the BTC price shows that the project has successfully operated as an alternative to traditional forms of money. A key aspect to consider is liquidity – how much daily trading volume occurs and how much transaction value is circulated on-chain. High liquidity indicates a robust, widely used network. On the latter, Alden pointed out: (…) now that bitcoin has billions of dollars of trading volume, there are trillion-dollar pools of capital that can’t put meaningful percentages into it; it’s still too small and illiquid for them. If they start putting a few hundred million dollars or a couple billions of dollars per day into it, that’s enough to tilt the supply/demand toward the buy side and seriously inflect the price upward. Since inception, the Bitcoin ecosystem has had to achieve certain levels of liquidity before it even gets on the radar of bigger pools of capital. It’s like leveling up. The narrative surrounding Bitcoin is ever-evolving. It’s been viewed as both a payment method and a savings tool, reflecting its multifaceted utility. The balance between these functions – being able to execute transactions globally while serving as a reliable store of value – is vital. The growing number of conversion points, where Bitcoin can be exchanged for goods, services, or fiat currencies, plays a crucial role in its adoption and practical use. Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition lies in its security and decentralization. The network must remain resilient against attacks and maintain its decentralized nature to continue being a credible and valuable digital asset. Despite facing technical challenges and bugs in its history, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable robustness, maintaining 100% uptime since 2013. What About The Bitcoin User? As Bitcoin evolves, so does the ease of its use. Developing user-friendly hardware wallets, improved software interfaces, and increased Bitcoin ATMs have significantly enhanced the user experience. This evolution is critical for Bitcoin’s wider adoption beyond tech-savvy individuals to the general public. On this key metric, Alden points to the progress in BTC hardware wallets, which allow people to store their private keys while maintaining the usability of their coins. Setting up a BTC wallet is becoming easier and will likely continue moving in that direction. The legal landscape surrounding Bitcoin varies significantly across different jurisdictions. While some governments have embraced it, others remain skeptical. However, Bitcoin’s global nature offers a kind of resilience to localized regulatory challenges. Its decentralized nature makes it a formidable entity to regulate or ban effectively. In conclusion, while challenges in miner decentralization and user experience persist, the overall trend is positive. Alden believes the network continues to grow in liquidity, technical robustness, and global acceptance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long Positions Surge On Bitfinex: Whales Add 4,230 BTC, Signaling Potential Price Reversal For investors and enthusiasts alike, Bitcoin remains a “dynamic and promising field, ripe with opportunities for growth and innovation.” As Alden points out, Bitcoin’s open-source nature invites continuous refinement and enhancement, making it a “resilient and adaptive digital asset.” Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price took a downside turn over the weekend and seems ready to re-test critical support levels. The downside price action was triggered by a spike in selling pressure following the approval of Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the US. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Carries Out Massive Sell-Off As BTC Price Suppression Continues As of this writing, the Bitcoin price trades at $40,900 with a 2% loss in the past 24 hours. Over the last week, these losses doubled, with other assets in the crypto top 10 by market underperforming, except for Dogecoin (DOGE), which still records a 4% profit in the same period. Bitcoin Price Loses Steam, How Low Can BTC Go? Via the social media platform X, the founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, shared a forecast for the Bitcoin price. According to Hayes, BTC seems poised to lose its current levels. The crypto founder and trader claims that the low timeframe price action will likely push Bitcoin below $40,000 and potentially below $35,000 if bulls fail to defend the higher area around these levels. The main issue regarding the current market structure rests upon the liquidity in the Bitcoin market. As seen in the chart below and as pointed out by Hayes, the liquidity in the BTC market has been trending to the downside since the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved. As a result, and due to the constant selling pressure from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the market has been trending to the downside and could maintain this course until the next major macroeconomic event. On the above, the BitMEX founder stated: Why has $SPX and $BTC stopped moving up together post US BTC ETF launch? Both are love more $ liq, which one is right about the future? $BTC is telling us that there are hiccups ahead for $ liq, next signpost is 31st Jan US Treasury refunding annc (announcement). If Bitcoin Goes South, What Levels Could Hold The Line? A pseudonym crypto analyst showed a cluster of buying orders stacked from the $38,819 to the $40,000 levels in a separate report. In other words, these levels should present opposition and seem like BTC’s biggest opportunity to bounce back, at least on low timeframes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Turns Red, Why BTC Could Tumble Below $40K In that sense, the analyst stated the following, anticipating a possible short-term recovery, and showing the image below: Some big zones starting to build up around 41K & 42K. Pretty certain we’ll at least take out that top part somewhere next week. Will see if price sustains after that. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price has been moving steadily at its current but failed to meet general expectations. Following the approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), market participants were expecting potential scenarios. Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Trading Sideways? 3 Key Factors In these potential scenarios, Bitcoin pushed through critical resistance at $48,000 and continued making new highs, or the cryptocurrency retraced to $30,000. As usual, the market has avoided pleasing the crowd as BTC trades at $42,000. Bitcoin Price Ready To Dip? The spot BTC ETFs have been influencing the market; the capital flows from these financial products have been used to suppress the cryptocurrency. A pseudonym analyst has been keeping track of crypto exchange Coinbase to connect the flows with the Bitcoin price action. Since its initial launch on January 11, the BTC flows into Coinbase have increased. This trading venue is key due to its role as Custodian in most spot Bitcoin ETFs filed with the US SEC. Thus, asset managers who want to buy or sell BTC go to Coinbase. The exchange sees fluctuations in its Bitcoin price in the spot market compared to other exchanges. As the trading volume on Coinbase has increased since the spot Bitcoin ETFs launch, the platform records some of its highest activity. In the meantime, the Bitcoin price trends sideways. The pseudonym analyst stated: (…) supply is coming from somewhere, obviously gbtc and maybe some others, like cme futures, anyways, whats most important is coinbase is still trading discount compared to other spot venues and thats very weak, unless you’re managing billions $, you can probably wait to fomo once coinbase is dragging market up instead of dripping sells. Another crypto analyst echoed these words; the chart below shows that the Coinbase Premium Gap signals strong selling pressure. If history repeats, the metric hints at a fierce crash for Bitcoin. In that sense, the analyst recommends “patience” while Bitcoin moves sideways and the Coinbase Premium Gap signals a potential dip into support. Bitcoin ETFs Breaking Record A report from Reuters indicates that the spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted almost $2 billion in their first few days of trading. BlackRock and Fidelity led these capital inflows and will maintain them depending on their fee structure, CEO of CF Benchmarks Sui Chung claims, while adding: Those that charge the lower management fees will unsurprisingly make themselves more appealing compared to their peers. Brand recognition is another core aspect. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Massive Sell-Off From Miners, As Price Holds Steady However, several experts have questioned these flows, which disputed the numbers. Three days after the ETFs launched, NewsBTC reported $800 million in new inflows based on a report by Eric Balchunas, ETF expert for Bloomberg Intelligence. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
In a report from the educational tool Essential Cardano, the team behind Input Output Global (IOG) showed some of the latest updates to ship in the ecosystem. From performance to scalability, the network continues to implement improvements. Related Reading: Is Cardano The Next Solana? Institutional Investors Clamor For ADA Exposure Cardano has been regaining bullish momentum in the crypto market as the news of the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded (ETF) fund in the US pushed the sector higher. At the time of writing, ADA’s price trades at $0.5 with a 7% profit in the last week. Big Updates, Big Things In Store? Cardano Picks Up Bullish Momentum According to the report from Essential Cardano, the network saw the introduction of a new version of its client, v.8.7.3, by its core technology team. The update addresses an issue with the outbound governor function, causing communication problems across specific nodes and impacting network performance. On the other hand, the networking and consensus teams implemented an update on the decision logic used by a cluster run by IOG and integrated a new ledger database, respectively. These updates will allow the network to mitigate performance issues. The report noted that the Lace team fixed a bug in the wallet and services sector that affected the singData method, impacting the visualization of stake pool rewards. The team also fixed issues with reading minting transaction data, stake pool visualization, and transaction signatures. An official post stated the following regarding a new feature that gave users more freedom to synchronize their wallets: Using multi-address wallets with Lace just got smoother, with a new simple way to discover and sync new addresses. Ready to make your life easier? Go to ‘Wallet Sync’ in your settings to resync your multi-address wallet and discover new addresses. After all, why shouldn’t we have our wallets and use them, simultaneously? Cardano Funding, Smart Contracts, And More On the smart contract side, the Cardano platform, Plutus, received an update to enhance its performance. In addition, the team implemented an update that allows the node to index consensus events and ledger states. This implementation represents a milestone in the platform’s long-term progress and in its capacity to deploy a queryable node, IOG noted. As in previous years, the Cardano ecosystem will stay focused on its community and in ways of promoting participation in its governance model. In that sense, the community awaits the release of a “constitution” to be agreed upon and voted by elected delegates. Related Reading: Cardano Price Explosion: Crypto Analyst Predicts ADA Price To Hit $6 Furthermore, the fundraising device for the ecosystem, Project Catalyst, will conclude its voter registration. This tool will continue to be a key ecosystem component throughout 2024. The post noted: Fund11 is progressing through the community review stage, now entering the moderation part where experienced community members help cross-check the output of the reviews. Results of this stage should be known within two weeks. The improvements have allowed the Cardano ecosystem to grow, deploy new features, and onboard new projects. All of which will be easier to visualize with the new Mithril Explorer. 🌐Meet Mithril Explorer, the gateway to the #Mithril ecosystem. Identify stake pools pioneers paving the way for the Mithril protocol. Kudos to our early adopters! 🙌 @X_StakePool_XSP, @canadastakes1, @sakakibara1JPN, and more. 🔍Explore now: https://t.co/IqFCqpb8qc #Cardano pic.twitter.com/9KsWp6gJly — Input Output (@InputOutputHK) January 12, 2024 Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price saw a spike in volatility due to the decision around the spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Market participants await an announcement at any point during the upcoming days, which will likely result in further spikes in volatility. Related Reading: These Events Will Create A Bitcoin Crash In March: Arthur Hayes As of this writing, the Bitcoin price trades at $43,900 with a 1% profit recorded over the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, the cryptocurrency records a 3% increase, acting as the best-performing asset in the crypto top 10 by market cap. Bitcoin Price Ready For A Massive Rally? According to many analysts, the potential implications for the Bitcoin price should the spot ETFs get approval are “impossible” for the market to price in this event. Thus, the bullish effects of this approval can only impact BTC in the mid to long-term as capital enters the financial product. On the other hand, volatility has been susceptible to sudden spikes, as mentioned above. In late 2022, any news related to the Bitcoin ETF moved the market by thousands of dollars, most notably, the report by the crypto news outlet Cointelegraph inaccurately announcing the financial product launch before receiving confirmation from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Developer Samson Mow claims this effect can benefit Bitcoin prices by pushing them beyond expectations. This week, two conflicting reports by analysis firm Matrixport pushed BTC back to critical support levels. A similar effect might drive Bitcoin back above the $50,000 area. Mow stated: Bitcoin dropped $5k on some fake news from a no-name analyst. Imagine what happens when a dozen ETFs are approved and start smash market buying. You may think an Omega candle is impossible, but it’s very real. Confidence In BTC Grows Stronger In support of the bullish thesis, trading desk QCP Capital pointed at the recent leverage “washed out” triggered by the Matrixport reports. Over $1 billion in long liquidations were triggered as BTC returned to the $40,000 level. Related Reading: BlackRock $10 Million Bitcoin Purchase Will Happen Today, Expert Says SEC Is Backed Into A Corner However, the cryptocurrency climbed back and re-took these levels’ mid-area. In a report, QCP Capital stated the following regarding Bitcoin’s potential to see a stronger rally in the mid-term: For now, the topside remains capped by resistance at the 46 – 48.5k region with support at the 40.5 – 42k region. In spite of the leveraged washout, BTC has climbed back up to 44,000 level. While we remain wary of a “sell the news” knee-jerk reaction to the downside, this resilient price action gives us more confidence in the medium-term bullish view into BTC halving towards Mar/Apr this year. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
On a high note, the crypto market starts in 2024, with BTC’s price rising steadily from $41,000 to around $46,000 as the Bitcoin ETF decision looms. The upcoming decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the BTC spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) could lead to significant market fluctuations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims $43,000 On Rumor Of ETF Approval Tomorrow These decisions, expected between January 5th and 10th, have kept Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), along with altcoins, on a tightrope with high funding rates indicating a preference for leveraged trades. Crypto Market Braces For Bitcoin ETF Decision: Volatility Spikes The New Normal? According to a report from options platform Deribit, the current market environment is hard to read with the usual indicators. Still, the readings across funding rates hint at a potential decline. The anticipation of a price drop following the ETF announcement, a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario, is in full swing. Nevertheless, the report claims the continued rise in crypto and sustained interest in trading BTC futures via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) highlights a growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies from traditional finance institutions. History suggests that the crypto market often reacts more negatively to actual product launches than preliminary approvals. This was evident in events like the BTC CME futures launch and the Coinbase IPO. If the market prices are high during the launch of these new financial products, it might trigger a short-term sell-off, especially if they fail to meet flow expectations, Deribit stated. However, any major price corrections should be “brief,” given the favorable macro environment, technical factors, and the build-up to Bitcoin’s halving. In case of decline, traders should watch the $40,000, $37,000, and $31,800 levels as potential support. The volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum has been noteworthy in the run-up to these ETF approvals, with Bitcoin’s implied volatility rising sharply to around 70, outperforming Ethereum. The current volatility levels are likely to decline following the Bitcoin ETF decision. On the BTC volatility, the report stated the following forecasting a trend for the upcoming bull market: Ethereum, while similar to Bitcoin, hasn’t yet reached inversion. That said, its long-term volatility is outperforming Bitcoin’s, suggesting optimism for Ethereum in 2024. In that sense, traders should look for any downside momentum in the ETH/BTC trading pair. Deribit claims that any decrease in the price of ETH is a “buy opportunity,” as suggested by the current market structure. Impact On Bitcoin Derivatives The options market’s reaction to the upcoming ETF decision is subtle, with Bitcoin’s call skew recovering quickly after recent market fluctuations. Ethereum maintains a consistent call premium, indicating a marked shift in focus towards Ethereum following Bitcoin ETF approvals. As for option flows and dealer gamma positioning, Bitcoin’s option volumes have decreased, with the market favoring buying in call spreads and selling in put spreads. In other words, derivatives player have been increasing their call positions in anticipation of the ETF decision in the US. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts Bullish Hammer For XRP In Upcoming Move Regarding the impact of this decision, Deribit and others have provided their views, but one analyst believes that the long-term effect of a Bitcoin spot ETF can’t be measured at the moment. Via the social media platform X, this analyst stated: It’s impossible for something to be “priced in” if a huge amount of capital literally doesn’t have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can buy ahead of an event. But that’s as far as any “pricing in” goes if the pool of participants is about to greatly expand. Note: this does not predict what will happen immediately after ETF approval. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
In a startling revelation by Scam Sniffer, the cryptocurrency world has been hit hard by a series of sophisticated phishing scams in 2023. The team behind the crypto security tool has reported that Wallet Drainers, a type of malware, have successfully siphoned off nearly $295 million from approximately 324,000 unsuspecting victims in the space. Related Reading: Is Internet Computer (ICP) The Next Big Thing? 60% Jump Raises Eyebrows These malicious software programs, predominantly found on phishing websites, trick users into authorizing harmful transactions, leading to significant asset theft from their crypto wallets. Wallet Drainers: The New Threat in Crypto Security? A closer examination of the data reveals a worrying trend of increasing phishing activities; each correlated with specific events in the crypto space. For instance, a significant theft of almost $7 million was reported on March 11, coinciding with fluctuations in USDC rates and an impersonation scam of Circle, the company behind the stablecoin. Additionally, a noticeable theft spike was observed around March 24, aligning with the hacking of Arbitrum’s Discord and its airdrop date. Scam Sniffer’s report highlighted several notable Wallet Drainers, including Inferno Drainer, which alone stole $81 million from 134,000 victims, and MS Drainer, with a haul of $59 million from 63,000 victims. The report notes the alarming scale and velocity of these operations. For example, Monkey Drainer extracted $16 million over six months, whereas Inferno Drainer looted $81 million in just nine months, as seen in the chart below. The report also sheds light on the common phishing signatures these Drainers use. Depending on the type of assets in a victim’s wallet, various phishing methods are deployed, ranging from increased allowance to ERC20 permit signatures. The most severe cases involved victims losing millions to these sophisticated scams. Scam Sniffer’s Analysis: Tracking Malicious Trends Scam Sniffer has ramped up its efforts in response to this growing threat. Over the past year, the tool scanned nearly 12 million URLs, identifying close to 145,000 as malicious. Furthermore, its open-source blacklist contains nearly 100,000 dangerous domains, continuously updated to platforms like Chainabuse. The increasing use of smart contracts by scammers, such as multicall for efficient asset transfers and CREATE2 & CREATE functions to bypass wallet security checks, marks a significant change from the previous year. This evolution underscores the need for enhanced vigilance and updated security measures in the crypto community. Scam Sniffer’s work extends beyond just tracking and reporting. The team actively collaborates with well-known platforms, offering its services to their users. They encourage all stakeholders in the crypto ecosystem to “join the fight against phishing, emphasizing that security is a collective responsibility.” Related Reading: Ethereum Price Momentum Reignites: Technical Signals Potential Surge To $2,600 In closing, Scam Sniffer acknowledges the support of its community: (…) crypto phishing involves multiple parties, crypto, and non-crypto platforms. Security requires a collective effort. If you wish to enhance your product’s capabilities in this area, please contact us at email@example.com. Finally, thanks to all the supporters of Scam Sniffer! Your support is the motivation that keeps us going. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Another year, another Crypto Holiday special from our team at NewsBTC. In the coming week, we’ll be unpacking 2023, its downs and ups, to reveal what the next months could bring for crypto and DeFi investors. Related Reading: Renowned Crypto Analyst Predicts The Top 5 Altcoins For 2024 Like last year, we paid homage to Charles Dicke’s classic “A Christmas Carol” and gathered a group of experts to discuss the crypto market’s past, present, and future. In that way, our readers might discover clues that will allow them to transverse 2024 and its potential trends. Crypto Holiday With Blofin: A Deep Dive Into 2024 We wrapped up this Holiday Special with crypto educational and investment firm Blofin. In our 2022 interview, Blofin spoke about the fallout created by FTX, Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapse, and Terra (LUNA). At the same time, the firm predicted a return from the ashes for Bitcoin and the crypto market. The resurrection seems well underway, with Bitcoin surpassing the $40,000 mark. This is what they told us: Q: In light of the prolonged bearish trends observed in 2022 and 2023, how do these periods compare to previous downturns in severity and impact? With Bitcoin now crossing the $40,000 threshold, does this signify a conclusive end to the bear market, or are there potential market twists investors should brace for? Blofin: Compared to previous crypto recessions, the 2022-2023 bear market appears milder. Unlike previous cycles, in the last bull market, the widespread use of stablecoins and the entry of massive traditional institutions brought more than $100 billion in cash liquidity to the crypto market, and most of the cash liquidity did not leave the crypto market due to a series of events in 2022. Even in Mar 2023, when investors’ macro expectations were the most pessimistic, and in 2023Q3, when liquidity bottomed out, the crypto market still had no less than $120 billion in cash liquidity in the form of stablecoins, which provides sufficient support and risk resistance for BTC, ETH and altcoins. Similarly, due to abundant cash liquidity, in the bear market of 2022-2023, we did not experience a “liquidity dryness” situation similar to March 2020 and May 2021. In 2023, with the gradual recovery of the crypto market, liquidity risks were significantly reduced compared to 2022. The only troubling thing is that in the summer and autumn of 2023, risk-free returns of more than 5% have caused investors to focus more on the money market and brought about the lowest volatility in the crypto market since 2019. However, low volatility does not indicate a recession. The performance of the crypto market in the fourth 2023Q4 proves that more investors are actually holding on to the sidelines. They are not leaving the crypto market but are waiting for the right time to enter. Currently, the total market cap of the crypto market has recovered to more than 55% of its previous peak. It can be considered that the crypto market has emerged from the bear market cycle, but the current stage should be called a “technical bull market” rather than a “real bull market.” Again, let’s start our explanation from a cash liquidity perspective. Although the price of BTC has reached $44k once, the size of cash liquidity in the entire crypto market has only rebounded slightly, reaching around $125b. $125b in cash supports over $1.6T in total crypto market cap, implying an overall leverage ratio of over 12x. Additionally, many tokens have seen significant increases in their annualized funding rates, even exceeding 70%. High overall leverage and high funding rates mean that speculative sentiment has as much impact on the crypto market as improving fundamentals. However, the higher the leverage ratio, the lower the investors’ risk tolerance, and the high financing costs are difficult to sustain in the long term. Any bad news could trigger deleveraging and cause massive liquidations. Furthermore, real improvements in liquidity are yet to come. The current federal funds rate remains at 5.5%. In the interest rate market, traders expect the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve to occur no earlier than March and the European Central Bank and Bank of England to cut interest rates for the first time no earlier than May. At the same time, central bank officials from various countries have repeatedly emphasized that interest rate cuts “depend on the data” and “will not happen soon.” Therefore, when liquidity levels have not really improved, the recovery and rebound of the crypto market are gratifying, but the “leverage-based” recovery is significantly related to investors’ financing costs and risk tolerance, and the potential callback risk is relatively high. In fact, in the options market, investors have begun to accumulate put options after experiencing a rise in December to deal with the risk of any possible pullback after the start of 2024. Q: Right now, we are seeing Bitcoin reach new highs. Do you think we are in the early days of a full bull run? What has changed in the market that enabled the current price action; is it the Bitcoin spot ETF or the US Fed hinting at a loser policy or the upcoming Halving? What is the big narrative that will go on in 2024? Blofin: As stated above, we are still some way away from the early stages of a full-blown bull market. “Technical bull market” better describes the current market status. This round of technical bull market started with improved expectations: the spot Bitcoin ETF narrative triggered investors’ expectations for the return of funds to the crypto market, while the peak of the federal funds rate and expectations for an interest rate cut next year reflected the improvement at the macro environment level. In addition, some funds from traditional markets have tried to be the “early birds” and make early arrangements in the crypto market. These are all important reasons why BTC’s price is back above $40k. However, we believe that changes in the macro environment are the most important influencing elements among the above factors. The arrival of expectations of interest rate cuts has allowed investors to see the dawn of a return to the bull market in risk assets. It is not hard to find that in November and December, not only Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise, but Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Index, and gold all hit all-time highs. This pattern typically occurs at or near the end of each economic cycle. The beginning and end of a cycle can significantly impact asset pricing. At the beginning of a cycle, investors typically convert their risky assets into cash or treasury bonds. When the cycle ends, investors will take cash liquidity back to the market and buy risk-free assets without distinction. Risk assets typically experience a “widespread and significant” rise at this time. The above situation is what we have experienced in 2023Q4. As for the Bitcoin halving, we prefer that the positive effects it brings result from an improvement in the macro environment rather than the result of the “halving.” Bitcoin had not become a mainstream asset with institutional acceptance when the first and second halvings occurred. However, after 2021, as the market microstructure changes, institutions have gained sufficient influence over Bitcoin, and each halving coincides with the economic cycle to a higher degree. In 2024, we will witness the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of a new easing cycle. But compared with every previous cycle change, this cycle change may be relatively stable. Although the period of high inflation is over, inflation is still “one step away” from returning to the target range. Therefore, all major central banks will avoid releasing liquidity too quickly and be wary of the economy overheating again. For the crypto market, a solid liquidity release will lead to a mild bull run. Perhaps it is difficult for us to have the opportunity to see a bull market similar to that in 2021, but the new bull market will last relatively longer. More new chances will also emerge with the participation of more new investors and the emergence of new narratives. Q: Last year, we spoke about the most resilient sectors during the Crypto Winter. Which sectors and coins will likely benefit from a new Bull Run? We are seeing the Solana ecosystem bloom along with the NFT market; what trends could benefit in the coming months? Blofin: What is certain is that exchanges (whether CEX or DEX) are the first beneficiaries when the bull market returns. As the trading volume and user activities begin to rebound again, it can be expected that their income (including the exchange’s fee income, token listing income, etc.) will increase significantly, and the performance of the exchange tokens may also benefit from this. At the same time, infrastructure related to transactions and capital circulation will also benefit from the new bull market, such as public chains and Layer-2. When liquidity returns to the crypto market, crypto infrastructure is an indispensable part: liquidity must first enter the public chain before it can be transferred to various projects and underlying tokens. In the last bull market, the congestion and high gas cost of the Ethereum network were criticized by many users, which became an opportunity for the emergence and development of Layer-2 and also promoted the development and growth of many non-Ethereum public chains, while Solana and Avalanche are some of the biggest beneficiaries. Therefore, with the arrival of a new bull market, more usage scenarios and possibilities for Layer 2 and non-Ethereum public chains will be discovered. Ethereum will also naturally not be far behind; we may witness a new boom in public chain ecosystems and tokens in 2024. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says History Shows What Might Be Next For Bitcoin, But Is It Good Or Bad? In addition, as an exploration of the latest applications of BTC, the development of BRC-20 cannot be ignored. As a new token issuance standard based on the BTC network that emerged in 2023, BRC-20 allows users to deploy standardized contracts or mint NFTs based on the BTC network, providing new narratives and use cases for the oldest and most mature public chain. With the return of liquidity, the exploration and development of BRC-20-related applications may gradually begin, and together with other public chain ecosystems, they will make great progress in the new “moderate but long-term” bull market. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Another year, another Crypto Christmas special for our team at NewsBTC. In the coming week, we’ll be unpacking 2023, its downs and ups, to reveal what the next months could bring for crypto and DeFi investors. Related Reading: A Crypto Christmas Special With Jlabs Digital: Past, Present, And Future Like last year, we paid homage to Charles Dicke’s classic “A Christmas Carol” and gathered a group of experts to discuss the crypto market’s past, present, and future. In that way, our readers might discover clues that will allow them to transverse 2024 and its potential trends. Crypto Christmas With STORM: Bitcoin ETF Should Be Out Of Your Wishlist? For today’s issue, our team got to chat with Sheraz Ahmed, Managing Partner at blockchain solutions provider STORM and founder of Decentral House. Ahmed has been present at some of the most important crypto events in 2023 and is constantly speaking with founders, organizations, and relevant actors within and outside the nascent sector. Thus, Ahmed has a unique perspective on the industry, its blindspots, and possible catalyzers. During the interview, we talked about the downside of approving a Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States and why the space might be unprepared for a new bull cycle. This is what he told us. Q: Our team has coincided with you in several crypto events this year; where do you think most of these events coincide? And what do you believe has been overlooked during 2023, a narrative, a project, something people missed as the industry enters another cycle? Switzerland, Europe, Dubai, Singapore, and Rio (de Janeiro). I do believe that we are too early for the next cycle. The broken models of the last bull run are yet to be rebuilt. Infrastructure has improved, custody, wallets, exchanges, and stablecoins, but the business models for Dapps (Decentralized Applications) have not evolved. I fear that we enter into another vaporware cycle and, at best have to wait 4 more years for real use cases/adoption or risk burning ourselves completely with shitcoins and scams. Q: As Crypto enters a new cycle, what’s different about the industry when you compare it to early 2021 and 2017? Where can investors see the growth? Is it in the players joining the industry, the financial products, or in its community? There is a bit more maturity, although that sometimes just feels like the veterans are just numb to the pain this industry can self-inflict. We do see genuine interest from large institutional players in the financial, consumer, and impact fields. But can we convert those ideas into adoption? Investment in utility and payment tokens is an oxymoron. They are not meant to be investment products and are not regulated as such. An investor could look into an infrastructure play, although I believe that is quite saturated today at approx. $700M. My bet would be early-stage protocol ecosystem funds (equity-based), with a portion of that taken in tokens for the utility of governance, etc., that might be attached. Q: The upcoming approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US seems like the perfect indicator that crypto has made it to the mainstream, but what’s the next frontier? Where does the industry go from here? I don’t agree. For me, it just sounds like the bankers finally believe they can make money off our industry. Now, does that mean it’ll be good for prices in the short term and more eyeballs? Yes. But be careful what you wish for, as when the heavy artillery comes in, they crush everything/everyone in their path. Related Reading: A Crypto Christmas Special With Material Indicators: Past, Present, And Future In 2023, we founded Decentral House. An innovation centre focused on blockchain-based application that provide the infrastructure to spark ideas to life. I believe that by having the right tools in your arsenal, you can navigate the Web3 space to find the light at the end of the tunnel. Without the right guidance, WANGMI (We Are Not Gonna Make It). Let’s work together to create an industry of trust we can all be proud of! Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Another year, another Crypto Christmas special for our team at NewsBTC. In the coming week, we’ll be unpacking 2023, its downs and ups, to reveal what the next months could bring for crypto and DeFi investors. Related Reading: A Crypto Christmas Special With Jlabs Digital: Past, Present, And Future Like last year, we paid homage to Charles Dicke’s classic “A Christmas Carol” and gathered a group of experts to discuss the crypto market’s past, present, and future. In that way, our readers might discover clues that will allow them to transverse 2024 and its potential trends. Crypto Christmas: A Deep Look Into The Bull Market And A Secret Pattern Once again, the crypto analytics firm Material Indicators joined us to discuss the current market structure. This year, we spoke with Keith Alan, one of the co-founders and analysts at the firm. Alan gave us his perspective on the bull market or what looks like the beginning of a bullish trend. Material Indicators is well known for their reliance on hard data, and for sharing views that often questioned the general beliefs in the crypto market. This time was no difference as Alan pointed to the evidence favoring both sides, bulls and bears. This is what he told us. Q: In light of the prolonged bearish trends observed in 2022 and 2023, how do these periods compare to previous downturns in severity and impact? With Bitcoin now crossing the $40,000 threshold, does this signify a conclusive end to the bear market, or are there potential market twists investors should brace for? MI: Nobody could argue that 2022 was anything but a bear market. After Bitcoin reached an ATH in November of 2021 we saw the bear market develop in classic fashion by losing support at key technical levels. While the bear was playing out in somewhat predictable fashion, the market was caught off guard by the events that led to the FTX crash in November 2022. Because the contagion from FTX had a devastating ripple effect that was felt by the largest institutions with crypto exposure as well as banks, I actually expected prices to fall even lower. At the time, fear and fighting among institutional players like Galaxy, Gemini and Grayscale (under DCG) who were among SBF’s largest institutional victims added to the concern that price would grind down towards the lower teens, yet somewhat remarkably and perhaps not so coincidentally on January 1, 2023 Bitcoin started to rally. What was first considered weekend whale games evolved long past the weekend, and in fact, through Q1/2023 I identified an entity on FireCharts which I nicknamed “Notorious B.I.D.” that was double stacking large blocks of bid liquidity to push price higher. There was a pattern to the behavior that made it somewhat predictable and tradable. Those moves were well documented in my X feed during that period of time. Once price reached $25k that entity disappeared. Even without the help of that manipulation pushing price up, and despite the fact that the macroeconomic situation was horrible, the geopolitical situation went from bad to worse and the US political situation evolved from a dysfunctional sh*t show to a full blown circus, the market continued to rally. Now, nearly 12 months and > 150% from the day the rally began, the debate between bulls and bears over whether this is a confirmed bull market or a sequence of bear market distribution rallies literally continues today. While it’s understandable that someone could look at 150% and immediately assume bull market, it does require a deeper understanding of what distribution and accumulation look like. From my view, that still isn’t as clear as one would expect. Historically, the Purple Class of Whales with orders in the $100k – $1M range have had the most influence over BTC price direction. The order flow data I’ve been monitoring on Binance shows that through most of the year they (along with larger MegaWhales) have been buying dips and distributing significantly more than they bought on those dips on the uptrends that followed. Only recently have we seen an uptick that could be an indication that the trend is shifting. Parallel to that, some on-chain data providers are showing an increase in the number of wallets holding BTC which is also an indication that we could be transitioning from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase and I’m looking for more clear evidence of that. One of the things I look for to get a sense of that is bid liquidity. I believe that “Liquidity = Sentiment,” and it’s no secret that order books have been thin on both sides of price through most of the year, however in the last 3 weeks or so, we’ve started seeing more institutional sized bid ladders coming into the order book and that fact supports a bullish thesis, as long as they don’t dump through the next pump. With all of the above in mind, there are most certainly turns and twists that investors should look out for. Sure we are starting to see some improvements on the U.S. inflation and unemployment numbers, but something in those reports doesn’t jive with reality. For most middle and lower income Americans, credit card debt is climbing to new highs, rents have soared, home ownership is unattainable, grocery prices are high and a Metallica “Standing Room Only” Field ticket is $575. So in my mind, we still have a percolating macroeconomic problem and the geopolitical and U.S. political issues seem to get worse by the day. Aside from that, the RSI has been over cooked for an extended period of time and we just had 8 consecutive green weekly candles. Both of those factors have historically led to corrections. I could give you the “History doesn’t have to repeat itself…” spiel or I can show you what historically happens after moves like this and let you decide. Another potential twist to consider is that the current PA has a striking resemblance to the first leg of the 2019 rally that turned out to be a Fib retracement, that ultimately got rejected from the top of the Golden Pocket at .618 Fib. That led to a 53% correction before the Covid Crash took it down more than 70% from the .618 Fib. At this stage, I’d be surprised to see a downside move that deep without the aid of a Black Swan, but we are currently having some interaction with the Golden Pocket that seems familiar. While it is reasonable to expect some resistance entering and exiting the Golden Pocket, there is one very weird twist to what we are seeing and that is a strange pattern I’ve noticed occurring on or around December 17th. Every year since 2017 there has been a move on December 17th that had Macro implications. The only exception to that is last year when it happened on December 20th. On each occasion the price action led to a macro breakout or breakdown. It’s too soon to tell if this move will validate the pattern on the day of writing (Dec 19th), but on the 17th we saw BTC get rejected from the lower end of the Golden Pocket and also lose the 21-Day moving average. Price has been flirting with both of those levels ever since so we’ll have to wait to see how it plays out over time. Aside from those things I’m watching the upcoming ETF window very closely. I think that the market is numb to SEC delays on these decisions, but there is so much anticipation that this time we’ll see an approval, that a flat out rejection has the potential to be the catalyst that triggers a correction. Regardless of where you side on whether we are or are not in a confirmed bull market, we’re seeing a lot of evidence that if we are not in it, we’re close to it. If you’re a long term investor and you haven’t already started building a position, it’s a good time to identify some targets to start scaling into one. This of course depends on your time horizon and risk appetite, but if you have a long term outlook and 6 figure targets for BTC it’s still early enough to get in, but it’s also a good idea to save some dry powder for a correction because in my opinion, it’s not a matter of if it will come, but when. Q: Right now, we are seeing Bitcoin reach new highs. Do you think we are in the early days of a full bull run? What has changed in the market that enabled the current price action; is it the Bitcoin spot ETF or the US Fed hinting at a loser policy or the upcoming Halving? What is the big narrative that will go on in 2024? MI: Despite the ongoing debate between bulls and bears over whether or not we’ve been in a bull market, I can say that despite the uptrend, there has been no clear confirmation that we’ve been in a bull market through most of the year. However, the fact that we’ve recently started to see more institutional sized bid ladders coming into the order book along with the on-chain data that indicates more wallets holding for longer and the recent buying after the R/S flip at $40k are indications that we may be on the verge of a breakout. There’s no doubt in my mind that a lot of the momentum we’ve been seeing is related to the next ETF decision window opening January 5-10 and the April 2024 Halving. The FED’s recent decision to pause rate hikes and hint at a pivot to cuts in 2024 certainly added fuel to that momentum that pushed price above $40k. In typical crypto form, we also had some help in late October through early December when I noticed some familiar patterns in the order book. I can’t confirm with absolute certainty if it was the Notorious B.I.D. spoofer we saw in Q1 returned, but it was the same game I identified through Q1 being executed and there is no question that it helped push price up through the $35k – $40k range before it disappeared. (…) As much as I’d like to see a correction come before we get there (the Bitcoin spot ETF decision), the market doesn’t care what I want. I would expect it to come before the Halving. Whether it comes before or after the ETF decision window closes remains to be seen. In the meantime, I’ll continue to watch order book and order flow data and trade what’s in front of me. Q: Last year, we spoke about the most resilient sectors during the Crypto Winter. Which sectors and coins will likely benefit from a new Bull Run? We are seeing the Solana ecosystem bloom along with the NFT market; what trends could benefit in the coming months? MI: The vast majority of my focus is on Bitcoin and to be honest, after seeing so many ponzi’s in the space, it’s the only digital asset I truly trust. There are certainly some great opportunities with certain alts, but with that comes increased risk. As for sectors, it’s no secret that AI and Gaming have been hot. According to some research I’ve been reviewing Memes, DePin and GambleFi are dominant narratives right now. The fact that Memes are more dominant than something that’s actually physical like DePin speaks to the immaturity of this market. Perhaps a better way of stating that is, “We are still early.” That said, if I’ve learned anything in crypto there is an opportunity cost associated with having high standards and principles for projects you invest in. As ridiculous as that may sound, the biggest upside potential seems to come from some of the most meaningless projects because they have large communities of “Crypto Bros” pumping them and thin liquidity makes them easy to pump. Just know that they also come with a huge risk and like every other ponzi, you don’t want to be the last guy holding the bag. I personally tend to avoid memes for all the reasons I mentioned above, but I do trade DOGE on occasion because it’s been a relatively easy scalp lately. Elon Musk playing kingmaker with that coin doesn’t make me like it any more or less (okay maybe less), but the results have been predictable. The fact he has obtained a money transfer license for X (Twitter) and that he has a DOGE logo on his X profile has me considering taking a flier on DOGE, but that’s not something I’m recommending to anyone who isn’t willing to lose that money. The fact he has SpaceX launching a DOGE sponsored satellite next month should at the very least bring a short term pump. Of the leading narratives mentioned, Memes may be the most dominant, but DePin is the most interesting to me, because it’s associated with something very real and very hot right now. For those who may not be familiar, DePin stands for Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks which are blockchain protocols that build, maintain and operate infrastructure for the AI industry. (Do Your Own Research). The fact that you mentioned Solana is proof that nothing changes sentiment like price. Solana has been through the ringer since falling from it’s ATH in November 2021 and the FTX crash of 2022 delivered another 80% correction that took it to single digit levels. There is no denying that it has been on an epic run recently. It’s somewhat puzzling to me how that is happening at the exact same time FTX liquidators have started the long process of distributing over $1B worth of $SOL back into the market. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Climbs 12% On Christmas Day – Brewing Bull Run Or False Dawn? Rather than speculate on what may be behind that, I’ll say that it is apparent that they have a very strong community and despite the network issues they’ve had in the past, they seem to be growing in popularity in staking pools. Then again, nothing influences sentiment like price, so I expect we’ll see a number of coins filter their way in and out of the leading narratives through the year. I’m just hoping more of them do so for legitimate reasons rather than fake news or P&D groups. IMO, until we see the projects with real teams, real use cases, real adoption and real revenue establishing themselves as the best projects to invest in for their fundamentals, “We’re still early.” Keith Alan is President at Keith Alan Productions, Inc., Co-Founder at Blacknox, LLC and Material Indicators, LLC. Nothing written should be taken as financial advice. For more insight and analysis follow @KAProductions and @MI_Algos. Find premium tools for traders at Material Indicators. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Another year, another Crypto Christmas special for our team at NewsBTC. In the coming week, we’ll be unpacking 2023, its downs and ups, to reveal what the next months could bring for crypto and DeFi investors. Related Reading: A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Ben Lilly Like last year, we paid homage to Charles Dicke’s classic “A Christmas Carol” and gathered a group of experts to discuss the crypto market’s past, present, and future. In that way, our readers might discover clues that will allow them to transverse 2024 and its potential trends. Crypto Christmas: What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally, And Which Coin Has The Most Potential? This year, we kicked off this special with JLabs Digital, formerly Jarvis Labs. One of the most prominent crypto analytics firm in the nascent sector. Their insight into the market dynamics has been popular due to their use of solid data and easy-to-follow style. Since 2022, the team at JLabs Digital has been expanding as they bring in new analysts, educational tools, and new ways to share their insights. Last year, we spoke to one of its founders, Ben Lilly, who was betting on crypto becoming “better” and more mature due to the lessons left by the fall of FTX and others. JJ walked us through the differences between this rally and previous years, the most undervalued coin in the sector, the potential twists in the market, and more. Q: In light of the prolonged bearish trends observed in 2022 and 2023, how do these periods compare to previous downturns in severity and impact? With Bitcoin now crossing the $40,000 threshold, does this signify a conclusive end to the bear market, or are there potential market twists investors should brace for? JJ: So with Bitcoin now crossing over the $40,000 threshold, does this signify a conclusive end to the bear market (…) I’m leaning towards the twist portion of that. I think most of this rally was really driven by disbelief and people shorting it to each pump, especially as we neared $30K, there was just a huge washout of shorts that had ated over the past year between options and derivatives. So that forced buying is really what set us up over $40,000 in my opinion. So now to sustain this, there’s going to have to be continued spot buying to see the price above, say $48,000 to $52,000. I think it’s possible we get up to that range, but I don’t think we’re just going to get to that range and keep ripping. I think sooner or later we’re going to come back down and retest that $30,000 mark. So that’s an eye investors and traders should have their eye on into 2024. I do think you’ll inevitably get that large leverage washout as is very typical in Bitcoin. Q: Right now, we are seeing Bitcoin reach new highs. Do you think we are in the early days of a full bull run? What has changed in the market that enabled the current price action; is it the Bitcoin spot ETF or the US Fed hinting at a loser policy or the upcoming Halving? What is the big narrative that will go on in 2024? JJ: I do think we’re entering a new bull market, but that said, there’s always going to be twists and turns and leverage liquidations. Keep that level in mind. $28K to $32K, think will be as good an entry as any if we get that opportunity in 2024. Anytime we see those big breakouts we saw in October, it’s just so typical Bitcoin to come back and retrace it. But what it first wants to do is engineer liquidity. So you have to realize the people that paint these charts are very sophisticated and they want to make you enter at less than optimal prices and sell less than optimal prices. So how they do that, they kind of coax you into buying at $40K. (They make you think) It’s never going to go back down again. And then next thing you know you’re holding onto those buys and it’s at $28,000 and you’re being forced to sell. I think this (rally) is much different. Basically if you look at 2021, we had (Microstrategy’s Michael) Sailor and Tesla buying (BTC), but outside of that, as we know, it was a lot of leverage to (investors) such as Three Arrows Capital, Grayscale, the Digital Currency Group that was overlooking it. All these people were getting access to massive amounts of leverage due to how cheap it was to borrow the dollars at the time, due to the interest rates being zero, they were using that to leverage themselves and basically pump Bitcoin artificially. And then we all saw that washout last year and as opposed to what we see now, this is actual institutional buying. So there’s been no doubt that I’m sure BlackRock, Fidelity, et cetera, they’re not buying now, they were buying below $20,000, they were buying throughout the $20,000 range. They’re not buying above $35,000 to $40,4K. So we do see a bit more strength at the bottom of the market, which is going to form a better base for 2024. But that said, there’s always going to be those ups and downs, but I think long-term, the fact that we saw that capitulation from kind of the leverage deigns to institutional players who know how to organize and manage these trades more efficiently, I think it’s very bullish for Bitcoin and definitely regime shift. I think it’s kind of forming. I mean as of right now, the future’s kind of unpredictable, but the things I see, we have this ETF coming. Do I think it’s going to be like the moment it’s approved, Bitcoin’s just going to take off? No, there’s a lot of complications with that. Like the Grayscale BTC trust, I think they hold over 600,000 BTC that’s going to have to get distributed. I’m not sure that there’s enough demand as of yet to just soak up all that supply that’ll be coming onto the market. But as we go down the line a few months later, these ETFs are rolling. BlackRock has their team of thousands of advisors out there selling this because they’re incentivized to. And at the same time we have “The Halving” where supply cuts down on the amount of emissions miners able to readily sell as supply. So you’ll have this massive influx. It’s very hard to be overstated the amount of new demand that will be coming online because of the ETF. At the same time we have “The Halving” event which is going to cut down on the amount of supply available for sale. I think that’s kind of forming a perfect storm in of itself. And then you look at the dollar, the DXY index, this is something I hit on a lot in my articles and the videos that we do on YouTube, and you see it’s (the DXY) been on a downtrend throughout 2023. It looks like it’s getting worse into 2024. We just had the Fed signaling that they’re thinking about rate cuts, which is usually as good a sign as any that those rate cuts will be happening. So the dollar will be weakening. At the same time we have this massive new demand for Bitcoin. At the same time the supply of Bitcoin’s dropping down. So you can see that all the stars are aligning for new all time highs, a hundred thousand plus targets. But it’s going to be a tricky road there. Like I said, I think we’re going to inevitably go back down to that $28 to $30K range, and then probably in the second half of the year we’ll really see it defy expectations to the upside. Q: Last year, we spoke about the most resilient sectors during the Crypto Winter. Which sectors and coins will likely benefit from a new Bull Run? We are seeing the Solana ecosystem bloom along with the NFT market; what trends could benefit in the coming months? JJ: It’s hard to say. As of right now, the narratives that’ll take hold, there’s going to be some crazy pumps on things and there’s going to be wild narratives like we saw with DeFi in 2021, what those are right now, we could guess, but there’s nothing definitive in my mind that it seems like, I think a lot of it’s being priced in now, actually. You see kind of these wild altcoin pumps over the past month. I don’t know how sustainable that is over the near term, but I think one thing people are overlooking is if this BTC ETF gets approved, we’ve kind of set the legal precedent that what the SEC did in approving the Bitcoin ETF, the futures ETF, but not approving the spot was illegal. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Dips Again – Is This Bulls Trap or Technical Correction? They’ve already approved Ethereum futures ETFs and now there’s a bunch of spot Ethereum ETFs open for application. So I think it’s inevitable that those will get approved and I think Ethereum is wildly underpriced. Not to say we won’t get pullbacks from here, but those are pullbacks you should be looking to buy because I think an Ethereum spot ETF is almost a hundred percent likely in the second half of 2024. And I think we’ll see some coins that were probably overpriced compared to Ethereum. If you factor that in, and I think we’ll see Ethereum and its use cases really start to take life in 2024. You see a flight to value at some point there, rather than the wild speculation that happens on other alts. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
As 2024 approaches, crypto analytics firm Nansen offers insightful predictions for the crypto sector, anticipating significant developments and shifts. Despite cautious optimism, they acknowledge a 10-20% chance of inflation resurgence after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot, potentially impacting crypto prices. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Close Below $2,120 Could Spark Larger Degree Decline As of this writing, the total crypto market capitalization is $1.5 trillion on the daily chart and seems poised for further upside in the long run. Crypto total market capitalization trends to the upside on the daily chart as the year ends. Source: TOTAL on Tradingview AI As Primary Use Case: The New Hot Thing In 2024? According to the firm, a key high-conviction bet for 2024 is the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents as primary blockchain users. Integrating AI and blockchain is expected to “advance rapidly, enhancing blockchain performance and broadening use cases.” This development signifies a crucial step in the blockchain world, potentially transforming how transactions and interactions are processed on the network. Another focus area is the intent-centric applications that address user experience (UX) challenges in the crypto space. These applications are designed to simplify user interactions with networks, removing complexities and making the technology more accessible to a broader audience. As seen in the chart below, the integration between AI and crypto is already paying off for early investors. Despite the persistent downside pressure recorded across the board, the AI tokens sector has been among the best-performing in the nascent industry. 2024 is also projected to be a pivotal year for decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Nansen forecasts that DEXs will gain significant market share from centralized exchanges (CEXs), driven by monetary incentives and innovative features. This shift could mark a fundamental change in the crypto trading landscape, emphasizing the growing importance of decentralized financial systems. Since 2020 and 2021, DEX has been gaining ground over CEX, and the trend might favor the former in 2024. Finally, Nansen believes that the largest and most trusted cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is expected to secure a broader range of use cases beyond simple transactions. This expansion could open new avenues for Bitcoin and highlight its versatility and robustness as a digital asset. Use cases such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) already gained popularity in 2023, and this trend might continue. However, some Bitcoin community members are fighting the change, which could hinder its adoption and implementation. Nansen: Market Scenario Analysis For 2024 The potential scenarios for the crypto market in 2024 depend a lot on the macroeconomic situation. In a “soft landing” situation, where inflation slows without drastically increasing unemployment, crypto prices are expected to grow steadily. However, there’s also the possibility of a re-acceleration of inflation or a recession, which would pose challenges for crypto prices and change the bullish narrative. Nansen’s analysis also acknowledges structural drivers likely to influence the crypto market, such as the statistical boost around Bitcoin’s halving. These structural drivers also include the adoption of blockchain by major traditional players and regulatory clarity, particularly around a BTC spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the US. However, unknowns like geopolitical events and macroeconomic shifts could significantly impact the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Rejects $43.5K, Why BTC Could Tumble In Short-Term In conclusion, Nansen’s research presents a nuanced view of the crypto market in 2024, highlighting potential growth areas like AI integration and DEXs while remaining aware of the challenges ahead. The year promises to be crucial for the crypto sector, with significant developments expected in technology integration, market structures, and regulatory landscapes. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin is walking back on some of its gains over the past few days. The number one cryptocurrency by market cap might be on the verge of a more significant retracement, which could push it back to the $30,000 zone. Related Reading: Internet Computer Loses Grip On $10, But Still Inks 82% Rally – Details As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $40,950 with a 2% loss in the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency records a 3% loss, with all tokens in the top 10 by market recording a similar performance, except for Avalanche (AVAX). Bitcoin Hits Local Top? Bull Run Slows Down Over the weekend, Bitcoin was rejected from the critical resistance level at $43,500. According to a pseudonym analyst, as the BTC price dropped to its current levels, a significant player placed a “substantial resistance block.” The chart below shows that the selling order is 1,562 BTC, or around $7 million. It also shows thick support for BTC as the bullish momentum fades. In other words, Bitcoin might slow down, but the area around $40,000 could provide critical support for a potential bounce. The analyst stated on the increasing selling orders appearing on the books: Massive resistance added on BTC Binance Spot. This is what a top looks like. A substantial resistance block of 1562 BTC has just arrived in the order books. BTC Whales On The Move While many believe that the market can absorb the spike in selling pressure, crypto analytics firm Material Indicators showed that Bitcoin is losing the support of major players. Over the weekend, players selling orders above $1 million “dumped” their positions. The firm has been warning traders about this possibility by arguing that the recent bullish price action was a strategy to suck in liquidity from retail investors. Once this smaller player jumped in, whales began to “distribute” or sell their coins into the rally. Related Reading: Solana Threatens To Unseat Ethereum In Trade Volume With $1 Billion In Single Day In that sense, the firm set a potential local top for BTC at $45,000. Keith Alan, one of Material Indicators senior analysts, stated the following on the current price action: The good news is, at some point the market does flip to accumulation, and prices moving lower will get us to that point. As bad as it looks for bulls right now, I’m not expecting a straight line down. Time to exercise some patience and see how things develop from here. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
In Geneve, Switzerland, Decentral House, a new initiative to unite the blockchain and Web3 space, has emerged. On the night of December 14th, several industry leaders from organizations worldwide discussed how blockchain is transforming the world. Related Reading: Bitwise Reveals Two Major Triggers That Will Send Bitcoin Price To $80,000 Decentral House: Merging The Physical With The Digital In One Spot Decentral House aims to serve as a hub for existing blockchain projects. This will enable them to collaborate, bring their ideas to life, and participate in initiatives supported by major players in the Swiss financial industry. The new hub was created to provide these projects with a place to materialize the discussions and ideas of Conferences and Summits that take place throughout the year. According to Decentral House founder and managing partner at STORM, Sheraz Ahmed, the physical place will integrate with the digital world to drive blockchain adoption. In the silence of this Decentral House, Ahmed believes that builders can speak about their projects and create a deeper connection. During the event, Ahmed told us: Decentral House is a centralized meeting point for the decentralized community. There’s a little bit of irony there. We definitely believe that there’s need to break down the silos that are created within our industry. I mean, a lot of people talk online, they build online, but we never really get the chance to meet in person. Even beyond just having a cocktail, a drink, and the likes, but being able to sit down and speak when there is silence. When you go past the small talk, past the, “Hey, how are you? It’s nice weather outside, which event are you going to next? Ah, that’s great. Okay, see you soon.” And when there’s silence, you can really think and have those deeper conversations (…). Ahmed highlighted the importance of Switzerland for the nascent sector, claiming that while many projects are based on a blockchain, the industry itself is “based on Switzerland.” This is due to the country’s banking system which allows the industry to gain access to capital and a solid legal framework. In other words, Switzerland is considered a “Safe Haven” for the blockchain community. Decentral House will provide a platform for like-minded individuals and events within this sanctuary. More Than A Co-Working Space, A Sanctuary Created as a long-term project running for at least two years, Decentral House will operate as much more than a co-working area. Web3 builders can join the initiative via different tiers and receive access to industry events, specialists in fundraising and compliance, and other services critical for their success in the nascent sector. The initiative is finalizing deals with major companies and organizations within the Web3 space and legacy sectors. Ahmed firmly believes that Decentral House can be a place that will help all actors work towards adoption and innovation: (…) if we can bring everyone around the same table, they can then truly create the innovation that we’re seeking. And so in order to do that, we’re creating a two year program that goes through four phases of ideation, iteration, validation, and execution. So we ideate, we brainstorm, create those ideas, we will then iterate on them, maybe there are some better than others. How can we move them? Then we will validate them, validate them with the board, get the funding. Related Reading: What’s The Metaverse? Meaning, Best Projects And Crypto The latter has been a critical question for many industry projects; many have the team and ideas but struggle during their fundraising phase. Others speed up this process and launch ideas that still require refinement. On the latter, Ahmed said: The fact that they go so quickly today into the real world, they don’t get the funding and the real eyeballs that they need to make it. So they’re going to get that validation from doing the two previous steps. And then once they’re validated, then we will execute on them and activate those proof of concepts, MVPs. And that’s where I truly believe mass adoption will follow. During the event, members of the Cardano Foundation, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) spoke on the impact of blockchain technology and the use cases that can help people in their everyday lives. Let’s continue with the recap! 🎊 Now it’s time to thank the #speakers, who entertained us with fascinating discussions on the future of the digital economy, the coexistence of real and virtual worlds, and how global organisations are using the potential of #Web3. 🌍 pic.twitter.com/G5trBqLAgx — Decentral House (@DecentralHouse) December 16, 2023 This was just the first of many debates, connections, and events that will take place in Decentral House to tear down the physical barriers that will allow the digital space to bloom. Ahmed concluded: (…) people tell me that Washington DC is the UN capital of the world with all the NGOs, et cetera, go there and try to access those people, try to speak with directors of the UN, you will not be able to. You have a barricade of security guards. They also will not want to speak to. (…) So, Geneva and Switzerland break down the barriers. And in order to (encourage) adoption, we need to break down the barriers. We cannot have all of our masks and shields up and try to improve and grow. We need to have those barriers broken down. And that’s why (we picked) Geneva. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has encountered a critical resistance level going into the weekend and could move sideways following a massive rally. According to an expert, the cryptocurrency has been breaching every major obstacle, making it one of the best-performing assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips To $43,200: Buy Or Sell Now? Analyst Predicts Trend As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $43,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, BTC recorded a 14% increase, with Ethereum following its footsteps, recording a 13% rally. Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Currency’s Journey to $40,000 Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, offers insightful analysis of Bitcoin’s trajectory, likening it to “exponential gold.” His thesis suggests that Bitcoin, much like its elder counterpart, gold, holds value in times of structural inflation, yet it boasts an added venture twist. In that sense, Timmer believes both assets are prime to capture attention from investors looking to protect themselves from “reckless monetary inflation.” As seen in the chart below, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the previous, its price could target $100,000 and $1,000,000 by early 2025. 2020 was pivotal for Bitcoin and gold, with fiscal and monetary stimulus bolstering their appeal. However, Bitcoin differentiates itself with its capped supply of 21 million coins, contrasting gold’s continual but modest annual supply growth. This limited supply has propelled Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) ratio significantly higher than gold’s. Moreover, Bitcoin’s journey reflects the classic S-curve path of technological innovations. Its exponential growth trajectory mirrors historical trends in technology from railroads to cell phones. However, predicting Bitcoin’s future based on these S-curves is complex, as slight deviations in these growth phases can “dramatically” alter outcomes, the expert claims. SEC Deliberations And Institutional Interest Shape Bitcoin’s Future Timmer’s observations include a potential impact of the SEC’s anticipated decisions on the Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He theorizes that pending product applications could attract new investors, yet he remains cautious about whether this will trigger a “sell-the-news” event and a large drawdown. Interestingly, a small percentage of Bitcoin is held for under three months, suggesting that the recent price surge is not merely “speculative,” offering support for a longer bullish trend. The true believers in Bitcoin, as indicated by the growing percentage held for over five or ten years, are unlikely to be swayed by short-term news. However, there is notable activity in the Bitcoin futures market, particularly among asset managers, which could suggest anticipation of the SEC movement. Any updates from the SEC would arrive in a transformed macroeconomic environment. Unlike the liquidity-rich period of 2020-21, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent policy shifts have reversed the surge in monetary inflation. This shift aligns the current situation more with the post-World War II era than the inflationary 1970s, impacting the urgency of the value proposition for gold and Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Strong and Eyes Fresh Surge Above $44K As BTC matures, its relationship with traditional financial markets and global economic trends becomes increasingly intricate. With the SEC’s decision and a shift in the macro-arena, the coming months are poised to exercise influence over the premier cryptocurrency and the nascent sector. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The price of Bitcoin slowed down its ascend following a week of smashing critical resistance levels. However, the rally is likely in its early stages, with BTC preparing to see further profits in the coming months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shakeout Drives $190 Million In Losses For Over 81,000 Traders As of this writing, the cryptocurrency trades at $43,300, reclaiming levels last seen in 2022 before the crash to its yearly lows. In the weekly chart, BTC records a 15% rally, with Ethereum following the trend while other altcoins lagged behind the two most prominent cryptocurrencies. Spot Bitcoin Jumps 15% In December, Eyes On Potential SEC Approval The crypto market has witnessed another remarkable surge in Bitcoin (BTC), with a 15% increase in just the first week of December. According to QCP Capital’s latest market update, this growth takes BTC’s year-to-date (YTD) gain to 260%. This exponential rise is primarily attributed to the anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On December 1st, the SEC announced that January 5th, 2024, will be the final deadline for rebuttal comments. This timeline sets the stage for probable approval in the week following. Although QCP Capital humorously notes that the significance of the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin’s Genesis block on January 3rd, 2024, might be lost on the SEC, the “market has certainly taken note.” As Bitcoin nears the $45,000 mark leading up to the expected announcement, investors are weighing how much of this news has already been priced. The post-ETF approval period will be critical, as the real impact depends on the actual flows from the ETF in its initial trading weeks. A ‘sell-the-news’ event is possible next year if expectations don’t match reality. Asian Buyers Re-Enter Market, When Altcoin Season? The December 1st announcement has also spurred renewed interest from Asian buyers, who had been less active in the preceding month. Notably, most of the recent spot gains have occurred during U.S. trading hours as investors in the country take positions in preparation for the SEC announcement. As the market prepares for the launch of the spot ETF, investors won’t find themselves short of options. With 13 applications for spot ETFs and several others for leveraged and options-based ETFs in the pipeline, the traditional finance ecosystem surrounding BTC (and soon ETH) is poised for significant expansion. QCP Capital anticipates that in a market characterized by low costs and tight spreads, structured products might emerge as a key asset class for generating alpha, similar to other markets like gold. The trading desk noted: This means that should spot BTC top on launch day itself, it will not stop the Traditional Finance ecosystem boom around BTC, and soon ETH – the likes of which we have been writing about for years now. Related Reading: Apollo Crypto Predicts Bitcoin Price Of $200,000 This Cycle, Here’s Why A report from the Glassnode co-founders indicates that the altcoin sector is already trying to catch up with the current BTC price action. The current pullback could provide an opportunity for smaller coins waiting to benefit from the bullish momentum. How much longer will altcoins trail behind before making their move? 🚀🔮 📈 The Bitcoin narrative continues to steer the ship, but a closer look reveals the total altcoin market cap playing catch-up. 🚀 With Ethereum and BTC leading the way, we are potentially on the brink of… pic.twitter.com/KC1QdWmnlE — 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) December 7, 2023 Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
For the first time in 2023, the Ethereum price has outperformed Bitcoin across several metrics, hinting at a fundamental shift in market structure. The second cryptocurrency by market capitalization follows the general sentiment in the sector, setting new yearly highs. Related Reading: XRP Greed Index Soars, Backed By Robust $1.3 Billion Volume – Good For Price? As of this writing, the Ethereum price trades at $2,300 with a 4% profit in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency recorded a 10% profit, with most of the altcoin sector still lagging the current price action. Ethereum Price Signals Strength For Altcoin Sector? A report from BlockScholes posted by the options platform Deribit indicates a spike in the Ethereum price volatility back to its levels above Bitcoin’s. ETH’s shift in market structure hints at traders and institutions gearing up for early 2024. The report claims that the potential approval of a spot in the US ETH Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is behind the current price action. This new dynamic suggests that the bullish sentiment above this event slipped from Bitcoin to Ethereum. As seen in the chart below, Ethereum records a higher return than Bitcoin for the first time since July 2023. The surge in returns, BlockSholes said, allowed ETH to buck a persistent downtrend, but overall, the cryptocurrency’s performance remains in its yearly range. In other words, the Ethereum price is doing better than in other periods across 2023 but has yet to resume a bullish momentum concerning Bitcoin. However, the report noted: This reversal is not yet strong enough for us to be confident in a return to the market structure that we had previously come to expect, but does indicate that the effects of speculative bets around the application of a spot ETF are not limited to BTC. This is echoed by the implied volatilities for both assets across the term structure, which forecast similar volatility levels for both assets. What Favors An Altcoin Rally In addition, the report noted a decline in the US dollar as measured by the DXY Index. Risk assets can thrive as the currency trends lower, potentially hinting at a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). If Ethereum continues gaining bullish momentum from its current levels, the entire altcoin sector could see further profits. The report indicates that most entities and traders are pricing in a “risk event” by the end of January 2024. Related Reading: Bloomberg Experts Forecast Timeline For Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Thus, Bitcoin and Ethereum may see a more significant rally by that time. Whichever coin prevails might reveal more information on the subsequent trend; if Ethereum outperformed, then altcoins are more likely to follow. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin and the crypto market continue to smash critical resistance levels and hit new yearly highs. The cryptocurrency stands closer to the $50,000 area as 2023 ends, and two major bullish catalyzers stand on the horizon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Triumphs Over $41,000, But Here’s What Could Prevent $50,000 As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $41,800 with a 6% profit in the last 24 hours. In the previous seven days, BTC recorded an impressive 13% rally as analysts and the crypto community celebrated the beginning of a new bull cycle. Bitcoin Whales Behind $40,000 Rally, Are More Profits In Store? Data provided by Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant, indicates that Bitcoin whales have supported the current price action since August. At that time, the cryptocurrency re-took the higher area at $20,000 and stood below the critical resistance at $30,000. As Bitcoin trended to the upside, whales took on “giga long positions” potentially in preparation for the current rally. This risk-on behavior began more discretely when BTC touched $16,000. Young Ju tied the market activity to increased buying orders from US investors. On Coinbase, the price of Bitcoin “skyrocketed” in October 2023. Investors in the country have been buying more of the cryptocurrency in preparation for the spot BTC Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval and the Halving event. The latter of this event is the reduction of the rewards for mining BTC. Furthermore, the CryptoQuant CEO believes retail investors have yet to board the rally. As seen in the chart below, BTC’s Realized Cap stood below 0.1, indicating “low liquidity” from retail investors in the crypto market. Game Is Not Over For BTC Additional data provided by Material Indicators confirmed the increasing buying pressure from whales. Analyst Keith Alan claimed that this behavior occurs to attract liquidity to the market. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts Bitcoin 400% Surge To $200,000, Here’s When Once liquidity, mostly from retail investors, enters the market, whales can “distribute” their coins or “dump” on retail to take profit from their position. Via his X handle, the analyst stated the following regarding BTC’s potential to continue the uptrend: (…) because we now have ~$86M in near range #BTC bid liquidity, I’m considering buying this pullback because it doesn’t appear the game is over yet. Cover image from Unsplash,chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price has been steadily moving around its current range as 2023 comes to an end. Recent data cast light on the current market structure and what could trigger an extension in the bullish momentum. Related Reading: Rare Signal Predicts Next XRP Price Move: Crypto Analyst As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $37,900 with a 1% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency has traded in the green as other assets recorded small losses, except for Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE). Big Day For The Bitcoin Price: What Whales Are Planning Data shared by crypto analytics platform Material Indicators shows the current state of the orderbook for trading venue Binance. The world’s largest crypto, looking into this orderbook often reveals patterns and clues to anticipate the price action. Today, Bitcoin faces two potentially high volatility events: whales will fight over the monthly candle close, and the US will reveal macroeconomic data. Thus, the cryptocurrency could finally break above its current levels or re-test support. The data from Material Indicators, as seen on the chart below, shows a spike in buying orders from Bitcoin whales and “mega” whales (Purple and Brown on the chart, respectively). This buying pressure is unlikely to translate into a rally as these investors prioritize market efficiency. Thus, they place small orders on exchanges to reduce slippage, leading the price to range. The good news is that this behavior is often positive for the BTC price by attracting, according to Material Indicators, “bid (buy) liquidity.“ Once there is enough liquidity in the order book, whales can sell their positions and avoid downside slippage. The firm stated: The more they attract, the more they can dump while minimizing slippage. Over the past 7 Days, Purple Whales have Market Bought ~$16M of #BTC and in 4 hours distributed ~$42M to the bidders they lured into the range. Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, there are #trading opportunities ahead, as this game appears to be on extended play mode. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Who Sold The Bitcoin Top Reveals How To Buy And Sell At The Perfect Time In that sense, traders should expect further sideways price action as whales and mega whales take over the market. In the meantime, $40,000 and $35,000 are two critical areas that could hint at a change in the current market dynamic. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is bound to open new opportunities for traders. The expectations surrounding this event impact the market now, but an expert believes they will have a more substantial effect in the coming months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Alert: $48,000 By Early January, Forecasts Proven Indicator As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $37,400 with a 1% profit in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency stayed in the green with a 3% profit, holding the critical level of $37,000 despite the increase in selling pressure. The Lucrative Strategy In Anticipation Of Bitcoin ETF Approval As Bitcoin’s value soars with a remarkable 125% increase this year, a new trading strategy emerges, promising high returns in the wake of the anticipated Bitcoin ETF. A seasoned market analyst, Markus Thielen, unveils insights into leveraging the evolving crypto market dynamics for profitable trading in an essay posted by options platform Deribit. Thielen’s analysis reveals an “unusual” trend in the Bitcoin market: despite its significant rally, the 30-day realized volatility remains at a modest 41%, starkly contrasting to the 5-year average of 63%. According to the analyst, this subdued volatility reflects a declining interest in leveraged Bitcoin options, a direct consequence of institutional players entering the crypto arena. These players, holding significant Bitcoin assets, will likely sell volatility, fostering a more stable market environment that mirrors traditional financial markets. In this landscape, the strategy of selling strangles (120% call and 80% put) on a 30-day rolling basis stands out. According to Thielen, this approach has shown profitability in approximately 23% of cases over the past year, as seen in the chart below, marking a significant improvement from the decentralized finance (DeFi) summer’s high-risk profile. At that time, DeFi protocols attracted billions in capital to the crypto ecosystem contributing to the incipient Bitcoin rally. While there are differences in the current market dynamics, options players are likely to benefit from this strategy. This strategy, particularly effective during low-risk periods, suggests a window of opportunity for traders to capitalize on before introducing institutional influence. Institutional Involvement Expected to Stabilize Bitcoin Market The anticipated launch of the Bitcoin ETF is set to transform the market further. This event is expected to recalibrate the put/call ratio, which leans heavily toward calls. Thielen compares it to the S&P 500, where the put/call ratio has been more balanced. The Bitcoin market might soon witness a similar equilibrium, presenting an opportunity for traders to harness volatility through a sell-put strategy. Furthermore, Thielen notes that the post-ETF approval phase could be the last chance for traders to exploit high volatility levels. Once institutional players begin systematically selling volatility, the market is expected to enter a phase of reduced price fluctuations, making volatility-based strategies less effective. The analysis also touches upon Bitcoin’s correlation with broader market indicators like the VIX index. While the Bitcoin market has maintained high volatility relative to the VIX index, this gap is anticipated to narrow, offering traders a strategic edge in timing their trades effectively. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Only Just Starting, According To This Metric In conclusion, as the Bitcoin ETF approaches and institutional participation increases, savvy traders can look towards selling strangles as a strategic approach to capitalize on the current market conditions. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Deribit and Tradingview
In a bold move, Cosmos co-founder Jae Kwon has called for a significant shift in the blockchain’s direction following the controversial passing of NWV #848. This proposal was approved by the community’s voting mechanism, earning around 40% of the votes, and it was aimed at changing the blockchain’s native token inflation rate. Related Reading: Cosmos (ATOM) Bears Dominate As Bulls Struggle To Drive Price Kwon, expressing his dissent, is now advocating for a coordinated “split” in the Cosmos ecosystem, a proposal that could reshape the blockchain’s future. This development comes in response to what Kwon perceives as “deviating from the network’s core principles.” “AtomOne” Split, Cosmos Co-Founder Urges Community Engagement Kwon’s proposal, termed “AtomOne,” is not just a divergence but an exodus from the current state of Cosmos, encouraging community members who voted ‘No’ to join this new venture. The plan is still in its infancy and laid out in a GitHub repository, where Kwon invites community ideas and participation in shaping this new direction. He emphasizes a collaborative approach, urging the community to discuss and contribute to the formation of AtomOne. The essence of AtomOne lies in integrating $ATOM with $ATMO/$ATOM1, aiming to prevent a “complete collapse of ATOM by mass selling.” Kwon suggests that instead of abandoning ATOM altogether, there should be a way for it to coexist with the new fork. Cosmos Community Faces a Crossroads: Exodus And Innovation Kwon’s vision for AtomOne involves forking the current “cosmoshub4” but with its development path and teams, aiming for a more decentralized structure than the current Gaia. This new entity is open to all who opposed the recent vote, signaling a departure from the traditional paths of blockchain governance. Kwon highlights the power of the minority in blockchain ecosystems and the ability to self-organize and create antifragile structures. His message is clear: those who do not align with sound logic are destined to fail, and the future belongs to those who dare to exodus and build a better civilization. Kwon assures that this move isn’t about abandoning the original Cosmos hub but saving it and redefining its role. People are completely confused about the nature of blockchains what power the NO/NWV voters have altogether inside and outside the hub. The reality is that we exist, our principles and goals are aligned because they come from logic and we are about to demonstrate antifragility. The reality is that you cannot take control of a chain even with over 50% consensus, even 67%, because the minority can always self-organize even without your help. And the reality is that those who don’t make decisions based on sound logic always end up failing in the end. As the community gears up for this potential split, Kwon’s call for a departure to AtomOne reflects a pivotal moment in Cosmos’ history and a testament to blockchain governance’s dynamic and evolving nature. A conversation that will continue for “generations.” Related Reading: Cosmos Has A Grand Plan For 2024: Will It Crush Ethereum? As a result of the split proposal, ATOM has seen a spike in volatility, recording an 11% loss over the past few days. However, speculation is that the split will involve an airdrop poised to attract positive attention for the token. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
A new era for the crypto industry approaches as the world’s largest exchange, Binance, changes leadership. Yesterday, the company’s founder and CEO, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, stepped down as part of an agreement with the US government. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport The deal might have sparked a new era of adoption and legitimacy for the nascent industry at the cost of CZ’s position and a $4 billion fine. Fresh data looked into Binance’s transactions to check if users believe in the company’s future following the historic decision. Binance Safe From FTX Like Bank Run? According to crypto analysis firm Nansen data, Binance recorded almost $1 billion in negative netflow following yesterday’s news. The data indicates that the platform’s USDT value decreased by $246 million, followed by Bitcoin’s value, which declined by $76 million. Users who feel uncertain about the platform’s future withdraw their money, potentially triggering a bank run. However, Nansen’s data shows that this scenario is far from materializing in this trading venue. While the negative netflows stand at $955 million, there is no “mass exodus” or panic from users trading on Binance. Nansen claims the platform’s holding value increased from $64.6 billion to $65.2 billion. The analytics firm previously stated that Binance handled bigger net flows. First, when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the company, and later, when FTX went bankrupt following a massive bank run. As mentioned, Binance seems unlikely to follow a similar fate. Nansen stated: In the past, Binance has processed higher volumes of outflow and negative netflow: Jun 2023 after the SEC sued Binance, December 2022 after insolvency rumors, and the immediate aftermath of FTX. We will provide another update 24 hours after the news originally broke. CZ’s Departure Forecast Good Times For Crypto Across the crypto community, the debate around CZ’s departure has been fierce. However, the consensus is optimistic. A report from The Block cites major banking institution JPMorgan claiming that the Binance deal removes a “systemic risk” for the industry. In 2022, when FTX collapsed, the price of Bitcoin crashed to a low of $15,000 and took months to recover. With 150 million users on its platform and millions of capital injected into multiple ecosystems. Binance’s collapse would have been equally, if not more, catastrophic than FTX for the nascent industry. Related Reading: Binance Drama Causes Crypto Prices To Dance On The Edge – Details JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtziglou told The Block: We see the prospect of settlement as positive as uncertainty around Binance itself would subside and its trading and Smart Chain business would benefit. For crypto investors the prospect of settlement would see the elimination of a potential systemic risk emanating from a hypothetical Binance collapse. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The price of Bitcoin presses on towards the upside and, once again, touched a critical resistance close to $38,000. The cryptocurrency could trend sideways at its current levels in the short term, leading analysts to find the support level that could withstand a spike in selling pressure.
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $37,160 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. BTC held a 2% profit the previous week, while Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) took the lead in the current price action.
The History Of Bitcoin Reveals Mega Bottom For The Current Cycle?
On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared a prediction on his social media channels based on the Bitcoin Cost Basis Density. The analyst investigated the BTC supply dynamics to find where the cryptocurrency could hold off the bears.
Based on his findings, the analyst stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to revisit the $30,000. As seen in the chart below, each time in BTC’s history that the supply moved to long-term investors, the cryptocurrency trends to the upside without returning to this price point: $30,000 for the current cycle.
The analyst set 3 conditions to confirm this pattern: first, Bitcoin must be exiting a bear market; second, there must be signs of a “high agreed price;” finally, the cryptocurrency must be about to go through a “Halving Event.”
During the latter, the supply rewards for mining BTC are cut in half along with its production, which often leads to “supply shocks,” according to some analysts. Halving events coincide with the BTC bull run, but other analysts warned against corresponding Bitcoin bull runs with the reduction in its supply.
The Biggest Narrative Driving The Bull Run
However, Woo claims that the potential approval of a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) might be the more significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency. If the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves the product, billions of dollars flow into the cryptocurrency.
The analyst added:
Bitcoin is far from a commodity market at saturation. What we’re seeing across the 13 yrs of this chart is BTC’s widespread adoption. The network had 10,000 users in 2010, today there’s well over 300m people using it as a store of value technology. This is only going to climb with a spot ETF.
The majority of users replying to Woo’s forecast highlighted his 2021 prediction. At that time, the analyst also set some levels that were supposed to hold against a selloff but quickly folded against unprecedented selling pressure.
It remains to be seen if this prediction will suffer the same fate or if the Bitcoin price can hold above $30,000 for the next bull cycle.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector in the crypto space has enjoyed one of the most prominent rallies despite the debacle with OpenAI. The company behind ChatGPT fired one of its founders and CEO, Sam Altman, sparkling downside pressure for AI-based tokens, such as FET.
The native token for Fetch.ai, FET, has been trending to the upside following the general market sentiment. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency recorded a 160% rally, and it’s poised for further profits as it breaches critical resistance levels.
OpenAI Controversy Adds Fuel For FET’s Rally
Data from Coingecko indicates that FET’s bullish momentum took a hit last week as news about Sam Altman leaving OpenAI broke. The token has been moving with any development from the broader AI sector, and the uncertainty surrounding this company has impacted its performance on low timeframes.
Over the weekend, FET regained its bullish momentum and reclaimed territory, extending a more significant rally. In that sense, a pseudonym trader looked into FET’s potential target as the cryptocurrency continues “its rally without a dip.”
In the past week, FET breached the resistance at $0.56, targeting its 2022 highs, as seen in the chart below. If the bullish momentum continues, the token could rise to its 2021 highs between $0.70 and $0.90.
FET Rally Could End In Massive Correction
Our Editorial Director and analyst, Tony Spilotro, has been bullish on FET’s trajectory. The analyst believes FET could rise 2x to 4x before losing steam and re-visiting support.
In the past, whenever the token followed a similar trajectory, printing a buy signal above the monthly Bollinger Band, as Spilotro stated, FET corrected by an impressive 80%. Thus, the analyst recommended new investors to tread carefully. Spilotro said:
(…) its safe more than likely to buy FET at such levels, so long as you have a plan to get out before the next 70+% correction happens. Otherwise, price could retrace back to your entry here. Be smart and don’t expect the rally to go on forever.
Today, Microsoft announced the hiring of Sam Altman to spearhead a new AI division. The company will commit to providing resources for the new division, which could ignite a new bull era for AI and AI-based tokens.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price rally is losing strength as the cryptocurrency returns to its support levels following weeks of bullish momentum. In the short term, the landscape seems sloped to the downside, but an analyst presented the main reasons why the rally has just begun.
As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $36,550 with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency recorded similar losses following the general sentiment in the market. Only Solana (SOL) preserved its gains during the same period.
Behind Bitcoin’s Surge: Decoding the Four Key Factors
According to a report from Deribit Insight, posted by Markus Thielen, several forces are pushing Bitcoin towards new yearly highs. These forces remain intact despite the recent price action.
Among the reasons behind the current BTC price rally, the analyst included speculations around the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission (SEC) Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund decision, traders’ appetite for leverage, fiat inflows through stablecoins, and increased fee generation within the Bitcoin network.
SEC’s Decision On The Bitcoin ETFs
A significant driver is the anticipation surrounding the SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Despite passing the second deadline in mid-October without any announcement, the market remains watchful, with the third deadline set for mid-January 2024. The uncertainty surrounding this decision has led to fluctuations in implied volatility, influencing Bitcoin’s value.
Leveraged Positions and Futures Market
The demand for leveraged positions in Bitcoin, primarily through perpetual futures markets, indicates a strong interest in trading the BTC/USDT pair. This was evident when the funding premium reached an annualized +28% on November 13.
In addition, the BTC options market saw an uptick in realized volatility. The increase in the metric signals risk appetite for investors.
The chart below shows that the metric approaches its 5-year average. However, the analyst believes that volatility should decline as the year ends, suggesting that Bitcoin will follow a sideways trajectory in the short term.
Influx of Fiat Via Stablecoins
Another crucial aspect is the substantial fiat inflow into cryptocurrencies, mainly through Tether’s USDT, indicating fresh capital entering the crypto space. With over $3.8 billion moving into crypto in the last 30 days, this influx has had a notable impact, especially on altcoins, reflecting growing investor confidence.
Increased Bitcoin Network Activity
The Bitcoin network’s fee generation signals heightened activity, reaching $54 million. The report claims that this growth in network usage, partly driven by the resurgence of Ordinals and support from major exchanges, underscores the fundamental strength of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Despite these positive indicators, the absence of an SEC Bitcoin ETF approval and a reduction in leveraged long positions might prevent Bitcoin from soaring past the $40,000 mark. However, the ongoing solid fiat inflows and a robust, fee-generating Bitcoin network provide grounds for cautious optimism.
Bitcoin’s journey remains captivating as it navigates regulatory decisions, market strategies, and evolving investor sentiment.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview