Futures OI exceeds 500K Bitcoin – volatility, liquidations increase as a result

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/futures-oi-exceeds-500k-bitcoin-volatility-liquidations-increase-as-a-result/

Definition

  • Future’s open interest is the total funds (USD Value) allocated in open futures contracts.
  • Liquidations are the sum liquidated volume (USD Value) from long and short positions in futures contracts.
  • Realized volatility is the standard deviation of returns from the mean return of a market. High values in realized volatility indicate a phase of high risk in that market.

Quick Take

  • Futures open interest exceeds 500k Bitcoin for the first time in February, as investors pile into futures contracts, an increase of over 20k BTC in February.
  • As a result of an increase in futures contracts has seen an increase in liquidations in February, mainly long liquidations, as investors continue to pile into the positive momentum of Bitcoin is up 50% YTD.
  • In addition, the realized volatility has also picked up, adding to Bitcoin price volatility by over 70% vol the highest level since the collapse of FTX.
FOI: (Source: CoinGlass)
FOI: (Source: CoinGlass)
Liquidations: (Source: CoinGlass)
Liquidations: (Source: CoinGlass)
Realized Volatility: (Source: Glassnode)
Realized Volatility: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Futures OI exceeds 500K Bitcoin – volatility, liquidations increase as a result appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin continues to diverge away from U.S. equities, second most uncorrelated period in over a year

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-continues-to-diverge-away-from-u-s-equities-second-most-uncorrelated-period-in-over-a-year/

Quick Take

  • In 2022, U.S. equities and Bitcoin were joined at the hip due to unprecedented rate hikes from central banks worldwide.
  • A strong correlation occurred until FTX collapsed in November 2022, which saw Bitcoin diverge with equities. However, this was short-lived and not a natural divergence.
  • As 2023 begins, Bitcoin has continued to diverge away from S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq.
  • Currently, Bitcoin is in a negative correlation with S&P 500 (-0.38), Nasdaq (-0.21), and DJI (-0.38).
Bitcoin and US equities: (Source: Trading View)
Bitcoin and US equities: (Source: Trading View)

The post Bitcoin continues to diverge away from U.S. equities, second most uncorrelated period in over a year appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin old and young coin spent volume at historic lows

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-old-and-young-coin-spent-volume-at-historic-lows/

Definition

This chart overlays the aggregate spent volume of both the Old (> 6m) and Young coin (< 6m) supply as well the Old / Young Spent Volume Ratio (%).

  • Younger coins 🔴 historically represent the vast majority of day-to-day transaction volume.
  • Older coins 🔵 historically represent a minority of day-to-day transaction volume, and thus changes in their spending patterns can signal shifting market trends and investor sentiment. In periods where older coins are spent in large volumes, it indicates that previously dormant supply is re-entering liquid and active supply, and may suggest a shifting in aggregate positioning by longer-term holders.

Spikes in the Old / Young Spent Volume Ratio (%) generally occur during bullish fervor as previously dormant supply begins to realize profits in large volume — including during capitulation events where previously dormant coins de-risk in volume.

Quick Take

  • Despite elevated transactional activity on the Bitcoin blockchain in recent weeks due to the rise of Ordinals and inscriptions, coin volume is at historic lows.
  • Young coins are spending roughly 167K BTC — the lowest level for five years.
  • Old coins are also not being spent in relation to history — roughly 10k BTC spent over seven days.
  • The old-to-young spent volume ratio % was at the fifth highest ratio during the FTX collapse — indicating capitulation and is currently descending to a rough average of the past five years.
Old vs young coin spent volume: (Source: Glassnode)
Old vs. young coin spent volume: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin old and young coin spent volume at historic lows appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Rate cuts potentially off the table for 2023

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/rate-cuts-potentially-off-the-table-for-2023/

Quick Take

  • The fed funds rate now implies that rate cuts are off the table for 2023 and are expected to remain higher for a longer time frame in the year.
  • As the year progresses, rate hikes are expected to continue, while rates are expected to hold steady in the second half of 2023.
  • A solid improvement in yesterday’s U.S. PMIs reinforced the need for further policy tightening, particularly with inflation slowing less than expected in the U.S.
  • The S&P composite PMI jumped out of contraction on an absolute basis, showing significant improvement.
Fed Funds Rate Probability: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
Fed Funds Rate Probability: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
S&P Global Composite: (Source: Macroscope)
S&P Global Composite: (Source: Macroscope)

The post Rate cuts potentially off the table for 2023 appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Ethereum gas usage spikes for stablecoins; primarily inflows in USDT

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/ethereum-gas-usage-spikes-for-stablecoins-primarily-inflows-in-usdt/

Definition

The relative amount (share) of gas consumed by the Ethereum network by category. Transactions are classified into one of the following categories:

  • Stablecoins: Fungible tokens with value pegged to an off-chain asset by the issuer or an algorithm. We include 150+ stablecoins in this category, with USDT, USDC, UST, BUSD, and DAI being the most prominent ones.

Quick Take

  • Gas usage by transaction type has seen an increase in gas usage by stablecoins to over 6%, with new highs in 2023.
  • The collapse of FTX drove recent spikes at the end of last year, but on an aggregate basis, stablecoin usage is now higher than in 2022.
  • USDT is 5% of the total stablecoin gas usage and has seen a wave of inflows due to recent outflows of BUSD. 
  • While USDC is only 1.5% of the gas usage of stablecoins on Ethereum but has also slightly benefited from the demise of BUSD.
Gas usage by stablecoins: (Source: Glassnode)
Gas usage by stablecoins: (Source: Glassnode)
Gas usage by stablecoins: (Source: Glassnode)
Gas usage by stablecoins: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Ethereum gas usage spikes for stablecoins; primarily inflows in USDT appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin battles with 24k ahead of FOMC minutes

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-battles-with-24k-ahead-of-fomc-minutes/

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin fell 2%  on Feb. 22 as markets began anticipating the upcoming FOMC minutes report.
  • The FOMC minutes will be released at 2 PM ET.
  • It is a transcript of what was discussed at the last fed meeting with all fed members when they raised interest rates by 25 bps.
  • It will examine a stronger-than-expected economy and how much interest rates need to rise.
  • Fed funds rate current target rate is 4.50 – 4.75%, with a 76% chance of a 25 bps rate hike and a 24% chance of a 50 bps raise at the March meeting.
  • As of one month ago, it was a 0% probability of a 50 bps rate hike.
CME fed watch tool: (Source: CME Group)
CME fed watch tool: (Source: CME Group)

The post Bitcoin battles with 24k ahead of FOMC minutes appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Accumulation Trend Score flashes 0, suggesting no Bitcoin buyers from all cohorts

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/accumulation-trend-score-flashes-0-suggesting-no-bitcoin-buyers-from-all-cohorts/

Definition

The Accumulation Trend Score is an indicator that reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating coins on-chain in terms of their BTC holdings.

While the relative strength of the accumulation for each entity’s balance size is measured by the entities’ size and the number of coins they have acquired over the last 15 days.

  • A value closer to 1 indicates that participants in that cohort are accumulating coins.
  • A value closer to 0 indicates that participants in that cohort are distributing coins.
  • A list of entities, including exchanges and miners, is excluded from the calculation.

Quick Take

  • The accumulation trend score flashes 0, suggests no buyers from any cohort within the Bitcoin ecosystem, and suggests distribution.
  • Each time Bitcoin hits a low in a bear market cycle, it tends to see significant accumulation (highlighted by the red circle) as investors see great value in buying Bitcoin.
  • However, shortly after, a lack of accumulation occurs due to perhaps disbelief in the cycle, highlighted by the red box.
  • In addition, Bitcoin is seeing the longest streak of profit-taking since November 2021.
  • The accumulation trend score by cohort also shows a clear appetite for accumulation since the collapse of FTX back in November.
Bitcoin: Accumulation Trend Score
Bitcoin: Accumulation Trend Score (Source: Glassnode)
Trend Accumulation Score: (Source: Glassnode)
Trend Accumulation Score: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Accumulation Trend Score flashes 0, suggesting no Bitcoin buyers from all cohorts appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin sees longest streak of profit taking from investors since November 2021 bull run

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-sees-longest-streak-of-profit-taking-from-investors-since-november-2021-bull-run/

Definition

Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit – Realized Loss.

Quick Take

  • Net realized profit/ loss indicates that this is the longest streak of profit-taking in Bitcoin since the bull run in late 2021.
  • Investors were taking profits for around three weeks during March 2022. However, this streak is roughly one month, and investors are taking the opportunity for profits.
  • In the past 14 days, only around $45 million of profits have been realized, considerably less than the previous streaks mentioned above.
  • CryptoSlate analyzed that profit-taking occurred last week, predominantly from short-term holders.
  • Bitcoin continues to face resistance at $25,000; one of the reasons is due to investors realizing profits.
Net Realized Profit/Loss: (Source: Glassnode)
Net Realized Profit/Loss: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin sees longest streak of profit taking from investors since November 2021 bull run appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin OTC desk holdings at seventh-month high

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-otc-desk-holdings-at-seventh-month-high/

Definition

The total amount of coins held on OTC desk addresses. This data is based on three different OTC desks.

Quick Take

  • Based on the three different OTC desks, they hold over 5,600 BTC, almost double the lows during Q4 2022.
  • During the 2021 bull run, OTC desk holdings hit over 12,000 BTC, as this was a popular method that is typically reserved for traditional investors and used to execute large trades for big buyers who need significant liquidity.
  • This is an encouraging sign showing that liquidity and big institutions are returning to the Bitcoin space.
OTC desk balance: (Source: Glassnode)
OTC desk balance: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin OTC desk holdings at seventh-month high appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Vix hits highest level since Jan 6; DXY breaks 104

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/vix-hits-highest-level-since-jan-6-dxy-breaks-104/

Definition

  • The VIX Index is a calculation designed to measure the U.S. stock market’s constant, 30-day expected volatility, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX) call and put options.

Quick Take

  • The VIX touched 23, the highest since the beginning of January
  • The DXY is breaching 104, as Bitcoin retreats to $24,400.
  • U.S. treasury yields are soaring to YTD highs.

– US 06M: 5.034%

– US 02Y: 4.703%

– US 10Y: 3.914%

VIX, DXY, BTC: (Source: Trading View)
VIX, DXY, BTC: (Source: Trading View)
US yields: (Source: TradingView)
US yields: (Source: TradingView)

The post Vix hits highest level since Jan 6; DXY breaks 104 appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Stablecoin outflows into Bitcoin begin to repeat – behaviour change shifting Bitcoin towards $25k

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/stablecoin-outflows-into-bitcoin-begin-to-repeat-behaviour-change-shifting-bitcoin-towards-25k/

Definition

This chart measures the 30-day change in stablecoin buying power on exchanges. It considers the 30-day change in major stablecoin supplies on exchanges (USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI) and subtracts the USD-denominated 30-day change in BTC  flows.

The barcode displayed at the bottom of the chart 🟠 will signal when the 30-day USD volume of BTC (i.e., inflows are occurring).

Quick Take

  • Roughly $3.8 billion of stablecoins have left exchanges in the past 30 days, and some have flown into Bitcoin.
  • Since the FTX collapse in November 2022, almost $11 billion worth of stablecoins has left exchanges.
  • During the initial FTX collapse sell-off back, stablecoin outflows occurred, but no notion of converting into Bitcoin but fiat.
  • However, as the dust settled, stablecoin outflows started to go into Bitcoin from January 2023 – indicating a change of behavior in investors.
  • News filtering regarding BUSD and stablecoins could be a trigger to see new inflows into Bitcoin from stablecoins.
Exchange buying power net position change: (Source: Glassnode)
Exchange buying power net position change: (Source: Glassnode)
Balance on exchange: (Source: Glassnode)
Balance on exchange: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Stablecoin outflows into Bitcoin begin to repeat – behaviour change shifting Bitcoin towards $25k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin Ordinals’ adoption, utilization, memory usage drop

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-ordinals-adoption-utilization-memory-usage-drop/

Quick Take

  • Since introducing Ordinals and inscriptions in January 2023, Bitcoin block space, usage, and transactions have grown exponentially.
  • Last week, the 100k Ordinal was inscribed, which shows the traction that Ordinals picked up.
  • However, data suggests the numbers are starting to reverse.
  • Taproot adoption and utilization have dropped by half; adoption is now less than 9%, while utilization is roughly around 3%.
  • As of Feb 10, the memory usage in Bitcoin exceeded over 300MB; priority fees were 21sat/vB.
  • However, the memory usage has now cleared to roughly 88MB, with only 8sat/vB for high priority, which shows the demand is drying up from Ordinals.
Feb 10. Memory Usage: (Source: mempool.space)
Feb 10. Memory Usage: (Source: mempool. space)
Memory Usage Feb 20: (Source: mempool.space)
Memory Usage Feb 20: (Source: mempool. space)
Taproot Adoption: (Source: Glassnode)
Taproot Adoption: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin Ordinals’ adoption, utilization, memory usage drop appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Supply Last Active 2+ years ago hits over 50% of the circulating supply

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/supply-last-active-2-years-ago-hits-over-50-of-the-circulating-supply/

Definition

As investors accumulate and store (or lose) coins for longer periods, we can categorize them based on how long it has been since they last moved on-chain.

This chart displays an overlay of multiple Supply Last Active variants, each shown as a percentage of Circulating Supply.

  • Supply Last Active 1+ Yrs Ago 🔴
  • Supply Last Active 2+ Yrs Ago 🟠
  • Supply Last Active 3+ Yrs Ago 🟢
  • Supply Last Active 5+ Yrs Ago 🔵

As longer-term investors accumulate coins, these metrics will tend to rise. Conversely, as long-term investors spend and distribute their coins, this metric will decline, with older coins becoming young again as they change hands.

Quick Take

  • Supply’s last active 2+ years ago hit 50% of the circulating supply for the first time.
  • This cohort bought Bitcoin during the 2021 bull run, while Bitcoin price was roughly $58,000 two years ago.
  • All other categories have also hit all-time highs recently.

Events that have occurred since then

  • The price of Bitcoin has dropped 75% from its all-time high.
  • Summer of 2021, China banned mining Bitcoin, which subsequently saw the hash rate drop by over 35%.
  • The collapse of FTX and Luna and a looming recession on the horizon.
SLA: (Source: Glassnode)
SLA: (Source: Glassnode)
Price drawdown from ATH: (Source: Glassnode)
Price drawdown from ATH: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Supply Last Active 2+ years ago hits over 50% of the circulating supply appeared first on CryptoSlate.

In the past two bear markets, Bitcoin has used the realized price by year as support

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/in-the-past-two-bear-markets-bitcoin-has-used-the-realized-price-by-year-as-support/

Definition

We can monitor the average price at which coins are withdrawn from all exchanges as a tool to estimate a market-wide cost basis. In this chart, we consider the average withdrawal prices for cohorts established by date, starting on the 1-Jan for the following cohorts:

  • 🟣 All-time
  • 🔘 2017+
  • 🔵 2018+
  • 🟢 2019+
  • 🟡 2020+
  • 🟠 2021+
  • 🔴 2022+

Quick Take

  • In the past two bear markets — 2019 and 2022 — Bitcoin (BTC) has used the realized price by year as support.

The current RP by year:

  • 2017: $15,189
  • 2018: $18,635
  • 2019: $21,831
  • 2020: $26,464
  • 2021: $36,897
  • 2022: $26,391
  • 2023: $21,310
  • All-Time: $11,090

As an aggregate basis, 2020, 2021, and 2022 buyers are underwater.

Exchange average withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)
Exchange average withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)

The post In the past two bear markets, Bitcoin has used the realized price by year as support appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Nail in the coffin for 2023 rate cut hopes in light of January inflation report

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/nail-in-the-coffin-for-2023-rate-cut-hopes-in-light-of-january-inflation-report/

Quick Take

  • The change in expectations from the market of the future fed policy during February has been significant. The fed funds rate is expected to peak above 5.25% in the year’s second half — with a slim to no chance of rate cuts this year.
  • The six-month treasury bill is yielding more than 5% for the first time since the GFC.
  • Retail sales jumped the most since covid due to the introduction of stimulus checks, according to the January inflation report.
  • In addition, the January inflation report showed the pace of declines in good prices is slowing; shelter inflation has yet to be factored in as rent increases still show positive upwards momentum.
  • This is followed by a second consecutive monthly increase of .4% in the core index.
Fed Fund Rate: (Source: CME and Bloomberg)
Fed Fund Rate: (Source: CME and Bloomberg)
US 06MY: (Source: Trading View)
US 06MY: (Source: Trading View)
Core CPI: (Source: BLS)
Core CPI: (Source: BLS)

The post Nail in the coffin for 2023 rate cut hopes in light of January inflation report appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is now above the realized price on all major exchanges

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-is-now-above-the-realized-price-on-all-major-exchanges/

Definition

We can monitor the average price at which coins are withdrawn from all exchanges as a tool to estimate a market-wide cost basis. In this chart, we consider the average withdrawal prices for cohorts withdrawing from the largest exchanges by balance.

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin is now above the realized price on all major exchanges, as it breaks through $24,000.
  • During the 2019 and 2020 bear markets, the Bitcoin price went through all-exchanges realized price.
  • However, during the 2022 bear market, the Bitcoin price briefly went below the realized price of all exchanges.

The exchange average withdrawal price by exchange;

  • Bitfinex:  $10,595
  • All exchanges: $16,816
  • Binance: $21,362
  • Coinbase: $21,046
Exchange withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)
Exchange withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)
Exchange withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)
Exchange withdrawal price: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin is now above the realized price on all major exchanges appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin breaks $24k – correlation seen with traditional assets trending downwards YTD

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-breaks-24k-correlation-seen-with-traditional-assets-trending-downwards-ytd/

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin was strongly correlated to traditional assets during 2022 due to uncertainty in the unprecedented speed of rate hikes from the federal reserve.
  • However, as 2023 continues to unfold, Bitcoin seems to be decoupling from traditional assets and going into a class of its own — roughly 50% up year-to-date.

On a YTD view;

  • BTC is -0.17% correlated to the US 10-year government bond yield.
  • BTC is 0.15% correlated to the S&P 500 (YTD low).
  • BTC is 0.24% correlated to the Nasdaq.
  • BTC is -0.19% correlated to the DXY.
  • BTC is 0.17% correlated to TLT.
BTC Correlation against Traditional Assets: (Source: Trading View)
BTC Correlation against Traditional Assets: (Source: Trading View)

The post Bitcoin breaks $24k – correlation seen with traditional assets trending downwards YTD appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin drawdowns vs other assets – Amazon with the largest drawdown of 95%

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-drawdowns-vs-other-assets-amazon-with-the-largest-drawdown-of-95/

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a drawdown of 69% from its all-time high. The collapse of FTX brought BTC to a 76% drawdown in terms of market cap back in November 2022.
  • However, BTC is not an outlier regarding vast and repetitive drawdowns — the same can be seen with Apple and Amazon.
  • Amazon experienced multiple 80% and 90% drawdowns in early 2000, which saw a peak drawdown of 95.12% back in 2001.
  • Apple has experienced 80%+ drawdowns on multiple occasions for over 20 years. The first 80% drawdown was back in 1985 and experienced a similar drawdown after the 2000 tech boom.
BTCUSD: Source: (TradingView)
BTCUSD: Source: (TradingView)
Amazon Share Price: (Source: TradingView)
Amazon Share Price: (Source: TradingView)
Apple Share Price: (Source: TradingView)
Apple Share Price: (Source: TradingView)

The post Bitcoin drawdowns vs other assets – Amazon with the largest drawdown of 95% appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin loses $24k – as 15k coins go back onto exchanges, profits get realized

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-loses-24k-as-15k-coins-go-back-onto-exchanges-profits-get-realized/

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin broke below $24,000 on Feb. 17, as coins returned to exchanges while short-term holders realized large amounts of profit.
  • Over 15,000 BTC went back onto exchanges from a range of cohorts — from small to big players.
  • Year-to-date (YTD), only 2,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.
  • Net realized profit was seen at almost $400 million, the highest amount just before the collapse of FTX back in November 2022.
Balance on exchange: (Source: Glassnode)
Balance on exchange: (Source: Glassnode)
Net realized profit/loss: (Source: Glassnode)
Net realized profit/loss: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin loses $24k – as 15k coins go back onto exchanges, profits get realized appeared first on CryptoSlate.

BTC mining stocks surge as Bitcoin breaks $25k

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/btc-mining-stocks-surge-as-bitcoin-breaks-25k/

Quick Take

So far, 2023 has been a great year for Bitcoin miners as the hash rate and price has surged. As a result, share prices have soared YTD;

  • Iris Energy Limited: 270%
  • Bitfarms Ltd: 170%
  • Hut 8: 158%
  • Bit Digital Inc.: 138%
  • Marathon Digital Holdings Inc: 139%
  • HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd: 133%
  • Riot Platforms Inc: 105%
  • Stronghold Digital Mining Inc: 72%
  • CleanSpark Inc: 51%
  • BTCUSD: 50%

Hash Rate extends all-time high

  • Bitcoin hash rate also continues to make new all-time highs, surpassing 312 TH/s as of Feb. 16.
  • While seeing back-to-back positive adjustments, 37% up on Feb. 14, and 16% up on Feb. 15.
Miner share price ytd: (Source: Trading View)
Miner share price ytd: (Source: Trading View)
Hash Rate adjustment: (Source: Glassnode)
Hash Rate adjustment: (Source: Glassnode)

The post BTC mining stocks surge as Bitcoin breaks $25k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Short-term holder cost basis has been below long-term holder cost basis for 146 days

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/short-term-holder-cost-basis-has-been-below-long-term-holder-cost-basis-for-146-days/

Definition

Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain. Using Short- and Long-Term Holder (STH, LTH) cohorts, we can calculate the realized price to reflect the aggregate cost basis for each group.

Quick Take

  • During later-stage bear markets, LTH cost basis is greater than STH cost basis, which is currently occurring.
  • LTH cost basis is $22,240 while STH cost basis is $19,391.
  • The four periods where the LTH cost basis is higher than the STH cost basis is highlighted with green and purple indicator.
  • The total cross-over days is 864 days; this is broken down in each bear market by;

The 2012 bear market: 239 days

The 2015 bear market: 334 days

The 2019 bear market: 145 days

The 2022 bear market: 146 days

Cost Basis Cohorts: (Source: Glassnode)
Cost Basis Cohorts: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Short-term holder cost basis has been below long-term holder cost basis for 146 days appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin flips multiple moving averages, faces key resistance levels at $25k

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-flips-multiple-moving-averages-faces-key-resistance-levels-at-25k/

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin has reclaimed over $24,500 and has flipped multiple-day moving averages in the process.

The 60 DMA is $20,184

The 120 DMA is $19,059

The 200 DMA is $19,717

  • However, the 200-WMA has been a reliable support level for Bitcoin in previous bear market cycles, which currently stands at $24,957.
  • While the 360-DMA currently stands at $25,398, another indicator of support.
Moving avergae: (Source: Glassnode)
Moving avergae: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin flips multiple moving averages, faces key resistance levels at $25k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Over $210M of liquidations in the past 24 hours, takes Bitcoin above $24.5K

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/over-210m-of-liquidations-in-the-past-24-hours-takes-bitcoin-above-24-5k/

Quick Take

  • The past 24 hours saw $211 million in total liquidations.
  • This resulted in $187 million of short liquidations — equating to roughly 87% of all liquidations.
  • This was the highest amount of short liquidations since Jan. 25.
  • Bitcoin specifically saw $88 million of liquidations in the past 24 hours.
  • As a result of the liquidations, Bitcoin soared to $24,700 — an 11% increase in the past 24 hours.
Total Liquidations: (source: Coinglass)
Total Liquidations: (source: Coinglass)

The post Over $210M of liquidations in the past 24 hours, takes Bitcoin above $24.5K appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin hash rate hits ATH after 34% YOY growth

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-hash-rate-hits-ath-after-34-yoy-growth/

Definition

This metric presents the percent change of the Bitcoin hash rate adjustment.

Quick Take

  • Over a 7DMA, Bitcoin hash rate hit 300 TH/s and continues to put in new highs.
  • During 2023, the hash rate has only had five single downward adjustments to show the consistency of the network and its current strength.
  • The hash rate has grown by 34% YOY and 50% over the past two years.
  • The China ban during the summer of 2021 was the biggest single event that affected the hash rate, which saw a drop of 35%.
Hash Rate adjustment: (Source: Glassnode)
Hash Rate adjustment: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin hash rate hits ATH after 34% YOY growth appeared first on CryptoSlate.

USDT dominance breaks 52%, highest since May 2022

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/usdt-dominance-breaks-52-highest-since-may-2022/

Definition

This chart shows the relative dominance of the top four stablecoins USDT 🟢, USDC 🔵, BUSD 🟡 and DAI 🟣.

The dominance of USDT for example is calculated as USDT Dominance = USDT Supply / sum(USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI)

Quick Take

  • USDT dominance breaks 52%, the highest dominance since May 2022, just before the Terra Luna collapse.
  • Binance processed $1 billion in withdrawals amid regulatory scrutiny on BUSD has benefited USDT in the process.
  • BUSD dominance is currently 12%, down from 17% dominance back in November 2022.
  • USDC is heading towards 30% dominance.
Supply dominance: (Source: Glassnode)
Supply dominance: (Source: Glassnode)

The post USDT dominance breaks 52%, highest since May 2022 appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Over 100K Ordinals minted on Bitcoin

https://cryptoslate.com/?post_type=crypto_insight&p=299245

Quick Take

  • Since launching in January, the emergence of Ordinals and inscriptions has now surpassed 100,000 inscriptions, according to Dune Research data.
  • Ordinals leverage the Taproot soft fork, which has seen Taproot adoption and utilization spike to new all-time highs of 12.68% and 5.59%, respectively, over a (7DMA).
  • This has resulted in a rise in the mean block size, which has increased from 1.5 to 2MB to 3 and 3.5MB over the past week.
Inscribing ordinals: (Source: Dune)
Inscribing ordinals: (Source: Dune)
Taproot Adoption: (Source: Glassnode)
Taproot Adoption: (Source: Glassnode)
Mean Block Size: (Source: Glassnode)
Mean Block Size: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Over 100K Ordinals minted on Bitcoin appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Asia smart money flips bearish on Bitcoin for the first time since the FTX collapse

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/asia-smart-money-flips-bearish-on-bitcoin-for-the-first-time-since-the-ftx-collapse/

Definition

This metric shows the 30-day change in the regional price set during Asia, US, and EU working hours.

Regional prices are constructed in a two-step process: First, price movements are assigned to regions based on working hours in the US, Europe, and Asia. Regional prices are then determined by calculating the cumulative sum of each region’s price changes over time.

Quick Take

  • Asia has been considered the smart money of the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem for several years, as they buy BTC when prices are suppressed and sell when prices are high.
  • CryptoSlate has analyzed this behavior for several months, and a clear trend emerged known as the Asia premium.
  • Specifically, in the last six months, Asia was buying from August 2022 to February 2023 — while the west was selling BTC in fear.
  • However, Asia was selling small amounts during the FTX collapse and has started to sell again.
  • This trend is essential to watch and witness if Asia is genuinely the ecosystem’s smart market.
Markets: (Source: Glassnode)
Markets: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Asia smart money flips bearish on Bitcoin for the first time since the FTX collapse appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Options 25 Delta Skew suggests bearish sentiment ahead of CPI

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/options-25-delta-skew-suggests-bearish-sentiment-ahead-of-cpi/

Definition

Skew is the relative richness of put vs. call options, expressed in terms of Implied Volatility (IV). For options with a specific expiry, 25 Delta Skew refers to puts with a delta of -25% and calls with a delta of 25% to demonstrate this difference in the market’s perception of implied volatility.

25 Delta Skew is calculated as the difference between a 25-delta put’s implied volatility and a 25-delta call’s implied volatility — normalized by the ATM Implied Volatility.

While Implied Volatility is the market’s expectation of volatility.

Quick Take

  • Options 25 Delta Skew suggests puts are more expensive than calls — indicating bearish sentiment ahead of the CPI announcement today.
  • For the past two years, each time calls become more expensive than puts highlighted in the black box, Bitcoin has a rally in price — potentially indicating a bear market rally.
  • Implied volatility has come down meaningfully since the FTX collapse, currently at 50% — as opposed to 140%.
  • 25 Delta Skew and implied volatility focus on options contracts expiring in one week from today.
Options 25 Delta Skew: (Source: Glassnode)
Options 25 Delta Skew: (Source: Glassnode)

 

Options ATM implied volatility: (Source: Glassnode)
Options ATM implied volatility: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Options 25 Delta Skew suggests bearish sentiment ahead of CPI appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance surpass 44 million

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-addresses-with-a-non-zero-balance-surpass-44-million/

Definition

Addresses with a non-zero balance are defined as the number of unique addresses holding a positive (non-zero) amount of coins. A balance with one or more Bitcoin is defined as the number of unique addresses holding at least one coin.

Quick Take

  • The number of addresses with a non-zero balance has surpassed 44 million addresses.
  • Since 2020, the Bitcoin ecosystem has seen an increase of around 11 million addresses with a non-zero balance.
  • The number of addresses with a balance of one or more Bitcoin is currently sitting at 981,000 addresses.
  • Almost 200,000 addresses with a balance of 1 Bitcoin or more have been added since 2020.
Number of addresses with a non zero balance: (Source: Glassnode)
Number of addresses with a non-zero balance: (Source: Glassnode)
Number of addresses with a balance of 1 Bitcoin or more: (Source: Glassnode)
Number of addresses with a balance of 1 Bitcoin or more: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance surpass 44 million appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Stablecoin withdrawals reach almost $500M in wake of BUSD news

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/stablecoin-withdrawals-reach-almost-500m-in-wake-of-busd-news/

Definition

The total amount of coins held on exchange addresses. STBL is a virtual asset that aggregates the data of all ERC20 stablecoins supported on Glassnode, thereby creating a metric that sums up all exchange balances across stablecoins. Stablecoins included are: BUSD, GUSD, HSUD, DAI, USDP, EURS, SAI, sUSD, USDT and USDC.

Quick Take

  • The recent news of the SEC vs. Paxos and Paxos halting BUSD minting has seen roughly $500 million of stablecoins being withdrawn from exchanges.
  • This has left roughly $35.5 billion of stables on exchanges, a decrease of roughly $500 million from Feb. 12.
  • Year to date, roughly $2 billion of stablecoins have been withdrawn from exchanges.
  • CryptoSlate reported that these outflows of stablecoins were going into Bitcoin. However, these redemptions have slowed down significantly.
Stables, balance on exchanges: (Source: Glassnode)
Stables, balance on exchanges: (Source: Glassnode)

The post Stablecoin withdrawals reach almost $500M in wake of BUSD news appeared first on CryptoSlate.