Future’s open interest is the total funds (USD Value) allocated in open futures contracts.
Liquidations are the sum liquidated volume (USD Value) from long and short positions in futures contracts.
Realized volatility is the standard deviation of returns from the mean return of a market. High values in realized volatility indicate a phase of high risk in that market.
Futures open interest exceeds 500k Bitcoin for the first time in February, as investors pile into futures contracts, an increase of over 20k BTC in February.
As a result of an increase in futures contracts has seen an increase in liquidations in February, mainly long liquidations, as investors continue to pile into the positive momentum of Bitcoin is up 50% YTD.
In addition, the realized volatility has also picked up, adding to Bitcoin price volatility by over 70% vol the highest level since the collapse of FTX.
This chart overlays the aggregate spent volume of both the Old (> 6m) and Young coin (< 6m) supply as well the Old / Young Spent Volume Ratio (%).
Younger coins historically represent the vast majority of day-to-day transaction volume.
Older coins historically represent a minority of day-to-day transaction volume, and thus changes in their spending patterns can signal shifting market trends and investor sentiment. In periods where older coins are spent in large volumes, it indicates that previously dormant supply is re-entering liquid and active supply, and may suggest a shifting in aggregate positioning by longer-term holders.
Spikes in the Old / Young Spent Volume Ratio (%) generally occur during bullish fervor as previously dormant supply begins to realize profits in large volume — including during capitulation events where previously dormant coins de-risk in volume.
Despite elevated transactional activity on the Bitcoin blockchain in recent weeks due to the rise of Ordinals and inscriptions, coin volume is at historic lows.
Young coins are spending roughly 167K BTC — the lowest level for five years.
Old coins are also not being spent in relation to history — roughly 10k BTC spent over seven days.
The old-to-young spent volume ratio % was at the fifth highest ratio during the FTX collapse — indicating capitulation and is currently descending to a rough average of the past five years.
The relative amount (share) of gas consumed by the Ethereum network by category. Transactions are classified into one of the following categories:
Stablecoins: Fungible tokens with value pegged to an off-chain asset by the issuer or an algorithm. We include 150+ stablecoins in this category, with USDT, USDC, UST, BUSD, and DAI being the most prominent ones.
Gas usage by transaction type has seen an increase in gas usage by stablecoins to over 6%, with new highs in 2023.
The collapse of FTX drove recent spikes at the end of last year, but on an aggregate basis, stablecoin usage is now higher than in 2022.
USDT is 5% of the total stablecoin gas usage and has seen a wave of inflows due to recent outflows of BUSD.
While USDC is only 1.5% of the gas usage of stablecoins on Ethereum but has also slightly benefited from the demise of BUSD.
The total amount of coins held on OTC desk addresses. This data is based on three different OTC desks.
Based on the three different OTC desks, they hold over 5,600 BTC, almost double the lows during Q4 2022.
During the 2021 bull run, OTC desk holdings hit over 12,000 BTC, as this was a popular method that is typically reserved for traditional investors and used to execute large trades for big buyers who need significant liquidity.
This is an encouraging sign showing that liquidity and big institutions are returning to the Bitcoin space.
This chart measures the 30-day change in stablecoin buying power on exchanges. It considers the 30-day change in major stablecoin supplies on exchanges (USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI) and subtracts the USD-denominated 30-day change in BTC flows.
The barcode displayed at the bottom of the chart will signal when the 30-day USD volume of BTC (i.e., inflows are occurring).
Roughly $3.8 billion of stablecoins have left exchanges in the past 30 days, and some have flown into Bitcoin.
Since the FTX collapse in November 2022, almost $11 billion worth of stablecoins has left exchanges.
During the initial FTX collapse sell-off back, stablecoin outflows occurred, but no notion of converting into Bitcoin but fiat.
However, as the dust settled, stablecoin outflows started to go into Bitcoin from January 2023 – indicating a change of behavior in investors.
News filtering regarding BUSD and stablecoins could be a trigger to see new inflows into Bitcoin from stablecoins.
As investors accumulate and store (or lose) coins for longer periods, we can categorize them based on how long it has been since they last moved on-chain.
This chart displays an overlay of multiple Supply Last Active variants, each shown as a percentage of Circulating Supply.
Supply Last Active 1+ Yrs Ago
Supply Last Active 2+ Yrs Ago
Supply Last Active 3+ Yrs Ago
Supply Last Active 5+ Yrs Ago
As longer-term investors accumulate coins, these metrics will tend to rise. Conversely, as long-term investors spend and distribute their coins, this metric will decline, with older coins becoming young again as they change hands.
Supply’s last active 2+ years ago hit 50% of the circulating supply for the first time.
This cohort bought Bitcoin during the 2021 bull run, while Bitcoin price was roughly $58,000 two years ago.
All other categories have also hit all-time highs recently.
Events that have occurred since then
The price of Bitcoin has dropped 75% from its all-time high.
Summer of 2021, China banned mining Bitcoin, which subsequently saw the hash rate drop by over 35%.
The collapse of FTX and Luna and a looming recession on the horizon.
We can monitor the average price at which coins are withdrawn from all exchanges as a tool to estimate a market-wide cost basis. In this chart, we consider the average withdrawal prices for cohorts established by date, starting on the 1-Jan for the following cohorts:
In the past two bear markets — 2019 and 2022 — Bitcoin (BTC) has used the realized price by year as support.
The current RP by year:
As an aggregate basis, 2020, 2021, and 2022 buyers are underwater.
The change in expectations from the market of the future fed policy during February has been significant. The fed funds rate is expected to peak above 5.25% in the year’s second half — with a slim to no chance of rate cuts this year.
The six-month treasury bill is yielding more than 5% for the first time since the GFC.
Retail sales jumped the most since covid due to the introduction of stimulus checks, according to the January inflation report.
In addition, the January inflation report showed the pace of declines in good prices is slowing; shelter inflation has yet to be factored in as rent increases still show positive upwards momentum.
This is followed by a second consecutive monthly increase of .4% in the core index.
We can monitor the average price at which coins are withdrawn from all exchanges as a tool to estimate a market-wide cost basis. In this chart, we consider the average withdrawal prices for cohorts withdrawing from the largest exchanges by balance.
Bitcoin is now above the realized price on all major exchanges, as it breaks through $24,000.
During the 2019 and 2020 bear markets, the Bitcoin price went through all-exchanges realized price.
However, during the 2022 bear market, the Bitcoin price briefly went below the realized price of all exchanges.
The exchange average withdrawal price by exchange;
Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain. Using Short- and Long-Term Holder (STH, LTH) cohorts, we can calculate the realized price to reflect the aggregate cost basis for each group.
During later-stage bear markets, LTH cost basis is greater than STH cost basis, which is currently occurring.
LTH cost basis is $22,240 while STH cost basis is $19,391.
The four periods where the LTH cost basis is higher than the STH cost basis is highlighted with green and purple indicator.
The total cross-over days is 864 days; this is broken down in each bear market by;
This metric shows the 30-day change in the regional price set during Asia, US, and EU working hours.
Regional prices are constructed in a two-step process: First, price movements are assigned to regions based on working hours in the US, Europe, and Asia. Regional prices are then determined by calculating the cumulative sum of each region’s price changes over time.
Asia has been considered the smart money of the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem for several years, as they buy BTC when prices are suppressed and sell when prices are high.
CryptoSlate has analyzed this behavior for several months, and a clear trend emerged known as the Asia premium.
Specifically, in the last six months, Asia was buying from August 2022 to February 2023 — while the west was selling BTC in fear.
However, Asia was selling small amounts during the FTX collapse and has started to sell again.
This trend is essential to watch and witness if Asia is genuinely the ecosystem’s smart market.
Skew is the relative richness of put vs. call options, expressed in terms of Implied Volatility (IV). For options with a specific expiry, 25 Delta Skew refers to puts with a delta of -25% and calls with a delta of 25% to demonstrate this difference in the market’s perception of implied volatility.
25 Delta Skew is calculated as the difference between a 25-delta put’s implied volatility and a 25-delta call’s implied volatility — normalized by the ATM Implied Volatility.
While Implied Volatility is the market’s expectation of volatility.
Options 25 Delta Skew suggests puts are more expensive than calls — indicating bearish sentiment ahead of the CPI announcement today.
For the past two years, each time calls become more expensive than puts highlighted in the black box, Bitcoin has a rally in price — potentially indicating a bear market rally.
Implied volatility has come down meaningfully since the FTX collapse, currently at 50% — as opposed to 140%.
25 Delta Skew and implied volatility focus on options contracts expiring in one week from today.
Addresses with a non-zero balance are defined as the number of unique addresses holding a positive (non-zero) amount of coins. A balance with one or more Bitcoin is defined as the number of unique addresses holding at least one coin.
The number of addresses with a non-zero balance has surpassed 44 million addresses.
Since 2020, the Bitcoin ecosystem has seen an increase of around 11 million addresses with a non-zero balance.
The number of addresses with a balance of one or more Bitcoin is currently sitting at 981,000 addresses.
Almost 200,000 addresses with a balance of 1 Bitcoin or more have been added since 2020.
The total amount of coins held on exchange addresses. STBL is a virtual asset that aggregates the data of all ERC20 stablecoins supported on Glassnode, thereby creating a metric that sums up all exchange balances across stablecoins. Stablecoins included are: BUSD, GUSD, HSUD, DAI, USDP, EURS, SAI, sUSD, USDT and USDC.
The recent news of the SEC vs. Paxos and Paxos halting BUSD minting has seen roughly $500 million of stablecoins being withdrawn from exchanges.
This has left roughly $35.5 billion of stables on exchanges, a decrease of roughly $500 million from Feb. 12.
Year to date, roughly $2 billion of stablecoins have been withdrawn from exchanges.
CryptoSlate reported that these outflows of stablecoins were going into Bitcoin. However, these redemptions have slowed down significantly.