https://beincrypto.com/pepe-reaches-5-month-high-has-accumulation-ended/

PEPE, one of the most popular memecoin, has been experiencing an upward trend for a week. The little brother of Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke out above long-term resistance levels today and is seeing 5-month highs.

If PEPE’s bullish price action continues, it is possible that the long-term accumulation could end and move toward the next resistance level at $0.00000190. On the other hand, if today’s price action turns out to be just a deviation, memecoin could return to the previous support area at $0.00000102.

PEPE Reaches 5-Month High

One of the most popular memecoin has been in long-term accumulation since June 2023. At that time, it dropped to a low of $0.00000082 (orange ellipse). The initial surge validated the $0.00000190 level as resistance and led to the continuation of the downtrend.

Then, between mid-September and mid-October, PEPE generated a double-bottom pattern in the $0.00000061 area (red ellipse). The subsequent upward movement validated resistance at the key $0.00000147 level. This area has repeatedly acted as support and resistance (blue arrows), so it is crucial for determining the direction of the trend.

PEPE has broken out above this level and is trying to close the daily candle above. If this happens, it could signal the end of the long-term accumulation period and the resumption of the uptrend.

The breakout above this key resistance was made possible by a series of 6 bullish candles initiated on November 30. Counting from the bottom to the top of today’s upper wick, this is an increase of 61.50% in less than a week.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the validity of the breakout and is just entering bullish territory (blue circle).

Market traders use the RSI as a momentum indicator to identify overbought or oversold conditions. In addition, they decide whether to accumulate or sell assets based on it. Readings above 50 and an uptrend indicate that the bulls still have the advantage, while readings below 50 suggest the opposite.

What Are Analysts Saying?

Traders and members of the memecoin community at X are bullish on PEPE’s future price action. For example, @Crypto_McKenna published his own price prediction today with a long position with a target of $0.00000220. If this prediction came true, PEPE would rise another 42% from its current price.

On the other hand, trader @DrCryptoPlague warns that despite the increases, this is not the time for FOMO. He wrote:

“Now is not the time to FOMO into $PEPE, the upside for this descending trendline breakout came perfectly. We should wait for the retest and see if it holds.”

PEPE Price Prediction: Next Target at $0.00000190

On the lower 6-hour time frame, we see that the breakout above the key resistance at $0.00000147 is supported by increasing trading volume. Moreover, the RSI is deep in overbought territory (above 88) but has not yet generated a bearish divergence.

If the uptrend continues, the nearest target is the $0.00000190 level. This area served as resistance in July 2023. Its recovery would be a strong confirmation of the return of the uptrend.

However, if PEPE does not close above resistance, the entire breakout must be considered a deviation. Then, a decline back to support at $0.00000102 is possible. Moreover, this level confluences with the 0.618 Fib of the upward movement.

However, a retest of the 0.382 Fib retracement at $0.00000128 is expected in case of a shallow correction. If this one holds, the upward trend will continue.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post PEPE Reaches 5-Month High – Has Accumulation Ended? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/btc-price-bullishis-next-target-before-halving/

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new yearly high of $41,745 during this morning’s Asian session. The largest cryptocurrency closed its 7th bullish week in a row and continues its upward movement towards long-term resistance at $42,000.

Many technical indicators show that Bitcoin is already in overbought territory, and the $42,000 level could provide strong resistance. However, there are also signals that preceded previous bull markets in post-halving periods. Will the market not wait for halving this time, and will the upward trend of the BTC price continue?

Bitcoin (BTC) Reaches Yearly High and Long-Term Resistance

The price of BTC has been surging rapidly since mid-October 2023. In a 7-week period, Bitcoin increased from $27,000 to an area just below $42,000. This is an upward movement of 55%.

The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin is currently reaching a strong long-term resistance area (red line). It may act as a target for the current upward phase. This resistance marks the 0.5 Fib retracement of the downtrend from the all-time high (ATH) to the November 2022 cycle low. In addition, the $42,000 level is the historical ATH from January 2021 (blue circle).

Market traders use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a momentum indicator to identify overbought or oversold conditions. In addition, they decide whether to accumulate or sell assets based on it.

Readings above 50 and an uptrend indicate that the bulls still have the upper hand, while readings below 50 suggest the opposite.

The weekly RSI for Bitcoin is increasing and is at 81. Moreover, it has been in an overbought area for 6 weeks now. This would indicate an increasingly overheated market, which could signal an impending correction.

However, in an accelerating bull market, the RSI could be in bullish territory for many weeks, as it was in late 2020 and early 2021. It is worth mentioning that at that time, the RSI peaked at 95 when Bitcoin hit $42,000.

What Are Analysts Saying About Bitcoin?

Analysts at X are divided about the future outlook for the BTC price. For example, @jasonpizzino also points out that the main area of resistance is now $42,000.

Moreover, he compares the current price action with the fractal of the parabolic movement of April 2019. In his opinion, the $42,000 level is a long-term target that will act as resistance before next year’s halving.

Another opinion is held by @TechDev_52, who published on X his analysis of the Vortex Indicator (VI). He pointed out that a rare signal (green) appeared on the monthly chart, which preceded all previous bull markets. After it flashed, Bitcoin would reach the top of the cycle over a period of 4 to 10 months.

However, it appears that if this bullish signal turned out to be correct, the halving narrative would be shaken. All previous signals appeared after consecutive halving. Moreover, most market participants believe that the bull market in cryptocurrencies appears as a consequence of reducing the reward for BTC miners by half.

However, if this time turned out to be different, then perhaps the significance of the upcoming halving will no longer be so fundamental. The analyst sums it up, stating:

“While most are waiting for the halving, liquidity is not.”

BTC Price Prediction: Is the Market Expecting a Correction?

The reaction to the $42,000 level will determine the further outlook of the BTC price. If, according to the above analyses, this area will be a strong resistance, a correction should be expected. The daily chart shows that the first target is the 0.382 Fib retracement of the recent upward movement at the $36,000 level.

Should this support fail to hold, Bitcoin could drop further to the $34,100-$32,400 range, corresponding to the 0.5-0.618 Fib levels. This move could lead to the validation of the July 2023 resistance as support (green line).

If, on the other hand, Bitcoin continues its uptrend and breaks through the key $42,000 level, the next target is $48,500. This area is marked by the long-term 0.618 Fib retracement measured from the ATH to the bottom of the cycle.

The RSI indicator, which has just returned to an overbought area above 70, suggests this possibility.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price Approaches $42,000 – Is This the Next Target Before Halving? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/altcoin-season-around-the-corner/

The total altcoin market capitalization is in a consolidation that dates back to mid-2022. Technical indicators currently suggest the possibility of a breakout, which may ignite a new altcoin season.

Still, this will require new capital inflows, increased altcoin trading volume, and a sustained close above a critical resistance area.

Altcoin Market Capitalization on the Rise

The altcoin market capitalization is in the process of forming its fourth consecutive weekly green candle. Each candle had a body size of about 6%, but together with the wicks, these represent a 35% price increase over the past month.

This upward move is significant, pushing the altcoin market cap to the long-term resistance area at $657 billion. This crucial resistance barrier has existed since mid-2022, even acting as support several times during the 2021 bull market.

The altcoin market cap also formed triple bottom support at $494 billion, creating a solid structure for a potential bull market. Indeed, the first higher high in 1.5 years was created in April, while June, August, and October managed to hold a higher low at the support zone.

If the altcoin market capitalization continues to increase, it will not only break out of the long-term resistance area but also generate another higher high. This could potentially confirm the start of a new bull market on the long-term chart.

Read more: 7 Must-Have Cryptocurrencies for Your Portfolio Before the Next Bull Run

It is worth noting the declining trading volume, which has been dropping since mid-2021. The compression pattern seems very mature, so a breakout can be expected in the coming weeks or months. A breakout above resistance and the generation of a higher high with rising volume will be an additional confirmation of the start of a new altcoin season.

Bullish readings are also provided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is rising and approaching bullish territory above 70. As the RSI reaches the highest level since November 2021, it further confirms the change in market sentiment.

A Bullish Breakout After A Short Correction

The analysis of the daily interval supports the bullish outlook from the weekly time frame. First, the altcoin market capitalization has reached resistance at $657 billion. Here, a short-term consolidation and possible correction can be expected.

If the correction is shallow, it is possible to retest the previous resistance area at $608 billion and validate it as support. This level corresponds with the 0.382 Fib retracement of the recent upward movement.

The daily RSI is already in overbought territory, above 70 on the daily chart. However, it has not yet generated a bearish divergence, as a steady increase in the RSI accompanies the price rise.

Interestingly, unlike on the weekly chart, the first signs of an increase in trading volume are already visible. The descending resistance line has been in place since March and has been broken several times over the past few days. If this trend continues, it may soon become visible in the weekly trading volume.

Altcoin Season: The Money Flow Cycle

Renowned crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards sayid, “Altcoin season is around the corner.” His analysis considers how altcoin market capitalization increased after Bitcoin’s previous halving. In his view, the altcoin market cap reached the peak of the cycle at 505 days after the Bitcoin halving.

If this situation were to repeat itself, the current price action could be just a prelude to a 4x to 8x altcoin season, which the market may not experience until 2024 – 2025.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Investment Strategies: What To Know

During the highly anticipated altcoin season, another analyst, Crypto Clearly highlights the standard money flow during a crypto bull market. The standard pattern begins with the surge of Bitcoin. Then, the main beneficiary becomes Ethereum.

Later, capital flows to more altcoins, from those with large market caps to medium to small caps. When the last and smallest altcoins increase exponentially, it signals the end of the altcoin season.

In addition, Crypto Bitcoin Chris supplements this scheme with the direction of progression during the altcoin season independent of market capitalization.

In his opinion, the freshness of the project also plays a big role, as usually, the market promotes projects representing innovative technologies at the beginning. They are the leaders of each market cycle.

This is followed by the rise of less popular altcoins, which still have high quality and hold value against Bitcoin.

The end of the altcoin season is marked by the growth of old projects, often considered “dead.” Every project, even “garbage” ones, increases in this phase.

Top crypto platforms | November 2023

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The post Why Altcoin Season Is Just Around the Corner appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/hodl-record-bitcoin-supply-hasnt-moved/

The recovery in the cryptocurrency market is underway, with the price of Bitcoin (BTC) surging 28.5% in October. However, the most important question is whether the 2023 increase is already the beginning of a new bull market or a period of unwinding after the market bottom.

On-chain analysis provides clues about the stages of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market cycle we are currently in. One of the more interesting indicators is the HODL Waves, according to which almost 90% of BTC supply has not moved for the last 3 months.

In addition, many late investors from the previous cycle have turned into long-term hodlers (LTHs). They didn’t manage to realize profits around the current all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 from November 2021.

That’s why they are now keeping their diamond hands and waiting to sell until the cryptocurrency bull market takes off for good. In previous cycles, it was their movements that marked the beginning of a mature bull market.

HODL Waves Indicator for More than 3-Month Supply of BTC Reaches ATH

HODL waves is an on-chain indicator that compiles all active supply age bands, or so-called HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of existing Bitcoins that have been recently moved in the indicated period. The closer the color approaches red, the younger the coins are transferred. The closer it approaches purple, the older the coins are.

It is worth noting that over time, a given coin that remains in HODL mode (is not transferred) changes its color towards purple. When coins are transferred, HODL waves indicator immediately qualifies it for the youngest red band, which determines transfers during the last hours and days.

A very interesting situation that HODL waves currently show applies to all age bands that are older than 3 months. On the chart of the long-term holders’ bands – from yellow to purple – we see a new all-time high (ATH). Currently, as much as 89.1% of BTC supply is not moving, not traded, and not changing hands.

In the previous cycle, it was 83.5% just before the cycle bottom in December 2018. In contrast, two cycles ago, the supply that had not moved for more than 3 months reached the historic ATH of 85.6% in July 2015.

Interestingly, this is happening despite a clear recovery in the cryptocurrency market. However, as BeInCrypto reports, most investors remain in HODL mode due to the impending Bitcoin ETF spot approval, which is expected in late 2023 or early 2024. The upcoming halving of Bitcoin, which has historically been the catalyst for a mature bull market in the cryptocurrency sector, is also not insignificant.

ATH on the HODL waves chart above 3 months was also noted by well-known on-chain analyst @DylanLeClair_. He pointed out that long-term investors hold their coins tightly in anticipation of higher prices. Then he wrote:

“Wall Street is gonna have to really pump this thing to get hodlers to part with their coins.”

Realized Cap HODL Waves Suggest the End of the Accumulation Phase

Another way to illustrate the HODL waves indicator is called Realized Cap HODL Waves. This is simply our indicator divided by the realized price. The latter is determined by realized market capitalization divided by current supply.

In the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart below, we see that, historically, a mature bull market has been characterized by a sharp rise in the red and orange age bands of BTC coins. On the contrary, the bear market was characterized by an increasing dominance of yellows and declines in reds.

However, one band of the age of HODL waves remains of particular interest in determining the timing of the transition from a bear market to a bull market and the end of long-term accumulation. This is the light green band. It designates coins that remain unmoved over a period of 2-3 years.

These investors were late to buy in the previous bull market, did not book profits and held their BTC throughout the bear market and accumulation.

Late Investors Key to a Mature Bull Market

If we now isolate just this cohort of HODL waves we can see that its behavior gives clues to the start of a mature bull market. Well, it turns out that in the previous two cycles the behavior of holders of these coins was very similar.

The surge of holders in the 2-3 year band (blue arrows) took place right after the accumulation phase ended. This one followed the macro bottom of the Bitcoin price (red rectangle). This cohort then reached a multi-month peak as the BTC price slowly climbed, entering a mature bull market (green arrow).

Eventually, almost the entire cohort of 2-3-year-old HODL waves sold their assets (red arrows). This process, which lasted several weeks, was already twice an indicator of the surge in the price of BTC.

Currently, it seems that the surge of 2-3-year holders we have seen since early 2023 may be the first part of the same pattern. If the green band holds now, the BTC price could continue the slow climb typical of an early bull market.

On the other hand, if it turns out that hodlers in the 2-3 year band start selling in favor of short-term holders, this will be a strong indicator of the final, mature stage of the cryptocurrency bull market.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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The post HODL Record: 90% of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved in Last 3 Months appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/open-interest-btc-options-reaches-all-time-high/

The cryptocurrency and Bitcoin market is experiencing quite a revival in October. One of its symptoms is a sharp increase in the volume of open interest in BTC derivatives.

Open interest in derivatives markets is a good indicator of the health of the cryptocurrency market. It suggests that investors from the traditional finance market (TradFi) are increasingly directing their attention and funds to Bitcoin.

The strong upward movement in the BTC price led to a new all-time high (ATH) in the BTC options market.

Derivatives: Options vs. Futures

Options are the rights held by the owner to be able to buy or sell an asset at some future date at a specified price. The price of execution is determined at the beginning of the contract.

At that time, the price for acquiring the option – the premium – is also paid.

Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at some future date at a specified price. The fixed price is called the future price.

Both options and futures contracts are financial derivatives. Their development and fluctuation depend on the underlying assets, such as stock indexes, currency pairs, or the spot price of BTC, for example.

Both instruments can be used with leverage, i.e., exposed to a higher nominal value than the invested funds.

On the other hand, the differences between the two include the way positions are liquidated, prices or symmetric or asymmetric guarantees.

Open Interest in the Bitcoin Options Market Reaches ATH

Since October 24, open interest in the Bitcoin options market has generated new all-time highs (ATH). Data from Glassnode shows that the volume of all put and call positions reached $16.35 billion yesterday. The previous peak was $14.15 billion, recorded in March 2023.

The capital inflow coincides with the BTC price breaking out of the $31,500 area in July and reaching a new one-year peak. A day earlier, on October 23, the BTC price surged more than 10% from its bottom at $30,000 to close at $33,000. Such a sharp and bullish move has attracted the attention of investors who, through derivatives, want to join the upward trend.

Interestingly, the currently recorded peaks in the BTC options market have surpassed the records from the end of the previous bull market in 2021.

One Twitter user, @kellyjgreer, wrote, “Bitcoin options just surpassed peak open interest from 2021.” It is worth recalling that at that time, the price of BTC also reached an all-time high of $69,000.

Meanwhile, another analyst, @Negentropic_, pointed out several factors that create a favorable environment for bullish Bitcoin price action:

• The dominance of call (bullish) open positions on options
• Growing open interest at $8.8 billion
• Strong indicators favoring traders with long positions
• Key target: Maintain support at $34,000 and aim to exceed 100,000 open positions.

In conclusion, he stressed that the most relevant level now is $34,000. In addition, he added that rising open interest could also be a signal of impending volatility. It could lead either to a continuation of the increases or a correction and consolidation in the $32,000 – $35,000 range.

Open Interest in the BTC Futures Market

We are also seeing a similar situation in the Bitcoin futures market. Data from Glassnode shows that an annual peak of $13.59 billion was reached yesterday.

This volume corresponds to trading in the futures market on the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, which include Binance, Bitfinex, BitMEX, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi, Kraken, and OKX. The previous annual peak was $13.43 billion, dating back to July 13, 2023.

An important difference between new peaks in the options market and futures contracts is that the latter did not reach the ATH.

Looking at the chart going back to 2020, we see that here, the ATH in the form of a double top was generated during the bull market of 2021.

Back then, the total volume of open interest in futures contracts was about $24.27 billion, or around 45% above current values.

Despite this, well-known on-chain analyst @WClementeIII noted that in recent days, trading volume on the CME futures market has reached the highest values of 2023. He then concluded:

“Tradfi is back trading Bitcoin.”

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Open Interest for Bitcoin (BTC) Options Reaches All-Time High appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/btc-nupl-between-fear-optimism/

Bitcoin price has been correcting since reaching a local peak at $28,580 on October 2. Since then, the bears have managed to push down the price of the largest cryptocurrency into the $26,500 area. What’s next for the BTC price?

At the same time, the well-known on-chain Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows the ongoing battle between areas of fear and optimism. Despite a bullish start of 2023 and an escape from the capitulation zone, Bitcoin price corrections continue to return to the fear area.

Will the Bitcoin Risk Index, which has currently reached its lows, finally keep the cryptocurrency market in the optimism zone and initiate a new bull market?

NUPL Between Fear and Optimism

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is an on-chain metric that calculates the difference between relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss.

Another way to calculate this ratio is to subtract realized market capitalization from total market capitalization and divide the result by the latter.

The NUPL chart contains five horizontal areas, which are interpreted from the market psychology perspective: from the red capitalization level to the blue area of euphoria and greed.

The intermediate areas have both bullish and bearish interpretations depending on whether the chart crosses the area during a bull or bear market.

Currently, Bitcoin NUPL is in the yellow, rather neutral area of optimism at 0.26. At the same time, the indicator is close to the orange level of fear, which begins after a drop below 0.25.

As we can see, the area of optimism is the highest level the Bitcoin NUPL has been at since early 2023. As recently as mid-January, the indicator was consolidating at the lowest capitulation level, only to become optimistic as the cryptocurrency market recovered quickly.

However, the specter of a deeper correction and a test of the $20,000 area could still drive NUPL back deep into fear territory.

Short-Term Holders Continue to Capitulate, but There Are Signs of a Reversal

In contrast, looking at the same indicator for short-term holders (STH), we see that new investors are still experiencing capitulation.

NUPL for STH takes into account only those UTXOs that are younger than 155 days. In other words, it calculates the unrealized profit/loss for new Bitcoin holders.

This chart version reveals the brutal truth that most new investors are still underwater. Admittedly, the beginning of the year brought them a period of relief and a return to the area of fear. What’s more, short-term NUPL was even in the area of optimism for a while (March 20).

However, since mid-August, short-term holders have been experiencing continued capitulation.

Despite this, well-known on-chain analyst @_Checkmatey_ published a chart on X that may contain optimistic signals. He pointed to the NUPL-related Profit/Loss Momentum indicator for STH. In his opinion:

“The bears took it negative on the sell-off from $29k to $26k. However, they failed to take it lower. Despite significant losses being taken by the market (the most bearish the market has been since FTX).”

He adds that the indicator has turned green again, signaling a possible bounce in STH profit/loss momentum. Therefore, the analyst concludes, this could lead to two possible scenarios: the last profit-taking before a deep correction or the return of strength.

Finally, he adds that personally – in the context of the macro market – he folds towards the latter scenario.

Bitcoin Low-Risk Index

Finally, another on-chain analyst, @Negentropic_, recently published on X the so-called Bitcoin Risk Index. According to his data, the BTC price is today in the blue area of low risk, where it oscillates around 0.

In his view, this metric suggests that after the recent declines, further deeper downward movement is “improbable at this stage.”

This interpretation remains consistent with the current declines, during which the bears have been unable to push the BTC price below $26,000. If this level is held and the signals from NUPL are confirmed, the cryptocurrency market could soon experience a bullish rebound.

However, if the $26,000 area is lost, a deeper correction is highly likely. It will probably lead NUPL back to the area of fear. Short-term holders, on the other hand, will still be far from any profit.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Between Fear and Optimism appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/top-btc-price-peak-predictions-this-cycle/

More and more cryptocurrency market analysts are beginning to embrace a bullish narrative. It seems that both technical indicators, on-chain, and market sentiment, suggest confidence in an emerging cryptocurrency bull market.

In addition, the price of Bitcoin, which at the time of this writing is battling resistance at $28,000, also offers hope for a continuation of the uptrend.

BeInCrypto has collected the TOP 3 Bitcoin price peak predictions for the ongoing market cycle. If the largest cryptocurrency has indeed reached the bottom of the cycle at the $15,476 level in November 2022. So, where is its potential peak?

Bitcoin Price Peak Predictions: $137,000 in August 2024

According to analyst @Washigorir, the price of BTC is likely to reach $137,000 in less than a year. According to him, this is possible as early as August 2024, just a few months after Bitcoin’s next halving. This event is currently projected for April 17, 2024.

For his bold Bitcoin price peak prediction, the analyst uses two complementary methods. The first is the BTC realized price indicator. This on-chain metric divides the realized market capitalization by the current supply (green line).

He also included two deviations from the realized price on his chart – blue, which marks market lows, and red, which marks peaks.

The second method is diagonal trend lines (black). Which connects the bottom of the previous cycle to the peak of the next cycle. Although it appears to follow historical trend lines, this method seems highly subjective.

The angle of the line, which determines where it intersects with the chart of the realized price, can be selected in many ways.

Nevertheless, the end result of @Washigorira’s prediction is the $137,000 level, to be reached as early as August 2024.

Ambitious Range of $200,000 – $250,000

The second Bitcoin price peak prediction comes from analyst @seth_fin. In his chart, he uses the famous Pi Cycle indicators – for both market peaks (red) and market lows (green).

Above all, his chart fits the narrative of Bitcoin’s cyclicality triggered by every four-year halving (black lines). The BTC price usually reaches the peak of the next cycle about 12-18 months after this event.

The analyst then forecasts the further course of the Pi Cycle indicators, which seem to move along the track of an ascending sinusoid. Moreover, he connects the previous two peaks and uses the extension of the trend line thus formed to predict the peak of the Bitcoin price.

According to @seth_fin, at the end of a mature bull market, Bitcoin will likely end its uptrend somewhere in the $200,000 – $250,000 range. This would be an increase of about 10x from the current price.

In a commentary on the chart, the analyst stresses that the possibility of such a scenario is due to the similarity to the 2015 fractal and requires the absence of a black swan like the COVID-19 crash of 2020.

Bitcoin Price Peak Predictions: ATH Is Already in the First Phase

The latest Bitcoin price peak prediction comes from analyst @CryptoYoddha. Interestingly, his chart does not include a prediction of the absolute peak of the cycle but only his suggestions for the first phase of the rally.

He uses a long-term parallel channel for his analysis. Its upper range (red) marks the area of historical and future peaks. While the lower range (blue) marks the areas of market macro bottoms.

In addition, he uses the famous 200-week moving average (200W MA, red). Which in previous cycles has been considered an indicator of the level of maximum pain for the BTC price.

However, we know that in generating the bottom of the current cycle, it was lost, and Bitcoin was below it for several months.

The most significant part of @CryptoYoddha’s analysis is the fractal similarity with the previous cycle. Unlike previous analysts, he contends that the first phase of the upside, expected to occur even before the halving, will already push past the all-time high (ATH).

He takes the area around $72,000-$74,000 in the median area of the channel (gray) as his target.

After that – based on the similarity with the previous cycle – a correction and a possible black swan would be expected. The final Bitcoin price peak prediction in his analysis remains outside the published charts.

However, it’s reasonable to anticipate that it will approach the levels discussed in the second prediction – above the $200,000 area.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Top 3 Bitcoin (BTC) Price Peak Predictions for This Cycle appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/btc-lags-behind-spx-bullish-signal/

The negative correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the stock prices of the largest U.S. companies (SPX) may carry some clues for the cryptocurrency sector and Bitcoin (BTC). If the dollar ends its uptrend, both stock markets and cryptocurrencies could soon experience a recovery.

This possibility is particularly apparent when considering Bitcoin’s long-term performance against the S&P 500. Indeed, the clear signal confirming the bull market’s start in February 2023 appears intact.

It seems current that the Q3 correction, which took place in traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, may be coming to an end. If this happens and the U.S. dollar cools down, the coming months could continue the upward trend from earlier this year.

The Correction of the U.S. Dollar Index…

The weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows an asset in a very strong uptrend. Since the bottom at 99.5, reached in July 2023, the DXY has generated 11 consecutive green bullish candles and is just closing in on 12.

Moreover, back in August, the dollar broke out of the declining resistance line (black). Then, in September, it broke through important resistance at 105.5 (red line). Both of these events are bullish signals that confirm the uptrend.

However, such a strong uptrend seems to be slowly waning. 12 consecutive green candles is a very rare event, after which a correction should be expected. The weekly RSI is slowly heading into overbought territory, and even a bearish divergence has already occurred on the daily indicator.

In addition, this week’s candle, with several hours left to close, may take the shape of an evening star or a gravestone Doji. Both formations contain long upper wicks, indicating selling pressure. Moreover, they often appear at the top of an uptrend and signal an impending correction.

If this happens, the nearest support level for the DXY is in the 104 area, which remains in confluence with the 0.382 Fib retracement level of the entire upward movement. On the other hand, the continuation of the uptrend may lead the DXY to the next area of resistance in the 108-109 range (red rectangle).

… Leads to S&P 500 Bounce

The upcoming correction on the DXY is in confluence with a potential bounce on the chart of the S&P 500. The index of the 500 largest companies in the U.S., which usually correlates negatively with the dollar, reached a local peak in July 2023 at $4607.

It is currently approaching the long-term support/resistance level at $4200 (green line). At the same time, this is the area of the standard correction at the 0.382 Fib retracement.

Moreover, the daily RSI is on the border of oversold territory and is just testing the long-term support line (blue circle), which it has already validated several times.

If the SPX holds this key support level, it could lead to a continuation of the uptrend. Then, the cards will break the local peak at $4,607 and move toward the all-time record high (ATH) at $4,818 in January 2022.

Bitcoin Lags Behind the S&P 500

The two trends outlined above – the ending DXY surge and the potential SPX bounce – have major implications for the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin. Most notably, despite brief periods of lack of correlation, the BTC price remains positively correlated with the SPX index.

Well-known cryptocurrency market analyst @therationalroot recently published a chart of the two assets on X. It clearly shows that the S&P 500 (blue) and Bitcoin (orange) seem to be moving very close since 2020.

However, an interesting phenomenon has emerged in the past few months, when the two charts have clearly separated. The S&P 500 continued its upward trend and approached its ATH at just 4.5%.

Conversely, Bitcoin has not experienced a strong continuation of the upward trend during this time and is consolidating. Moreover, it still remains about 60% below its November 2021 ATH.

However, it is possible that the BTC price will increase its volatility after this transitional period of lagging behind the SPX. Then, there is a chance that the last quarter of 2023 will bring better returns than traditional markets.

The Bullish Signal Remains Intact – the Beginning of a Bull Market

Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 still has a double bottom. It turns out that historically, the performance that the largest cryptocurrency had against the SPX index has been a good indicator for cryptocurrency bull and bear markets.

Macroeconomist and financial cycles analyst @HenrikZeberg published a long-term chart of BTC/SPX on X. He showed how periods of strong uptrends on SPX overlapped with BTC bull markets.

The difference remains the magnitude of the returns (and declines). While SPX in the previous two cycles helped to earn about 40%, BTC generated 45x returns in 2015-2018 and 6x returns in 2019-2021.

According to the analyst, confirmation of the bull market and the “risk on” period was the upward crossing of the signal line (green) by the monthly RSI indicator for the BTC/SPX pair.

These are golden areas. The opposite signal was the downward crossing marked by the red areas.

The latest part of the chart shows that an upward signal last appeared in February 2023. Bitcoin began generating more gains than the S&P 500, and the RSI of the BTC/SPX pair fired upward.

Despite a minor correction, the RSI remains above the green line, indicating that the bull market remains intact.

A correction on this indicator and another touch of the green line could signal a bullish retest. This remains in confluence with a potential bounce on the SPX chart and the end of the uptrend for the U.S. dollar.

If the signals are confirmed, the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin could soon enter a mature bull market phase.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/usd-dxy-reaches-one-year-peak/

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached its highest level in almost a year. Contrary to the widely held bearish view of the dollar, this marks a strong shift, which is now entering a phase of potential consolidation.

If the US Dollar confirms the start of a new uptrend, this could have major implications for broad financial markets and cryptocurrencies. However, despite the historical negative correlation between DXY and BTC, this impact does not necessarily lead to declines in the crypto sector.

US Dollar Reaches New One-Year Peak

The US Dollar index peaked at 114.8 in September 2022. A month and a half later, it broke down from the parabolic support line (blue) and began a downtrend. This one ended at 99.5 in July 2023.

However, already in August, the DXY broke out above the descending downtrend line (black), initiating a medium-term uptrend. It led to a new one-year peak at 106.5 and the first higher high in almost a year.

Moreover, the US Dollar closed several daily candles above the key resistance at 105.5. Now, validating this resistance as support will be important for continuing the uptrend.

However, in case of a deeper correction, the 104 area at the 0.382 Fib retracement level should provide support. It remains in confluence with the previous swing high of May 2023.

If the DXY continues its upward movement, the next resistance is the 108.5 level at the long-term 0.236 Fib retracement. This area was lost during last year’s breakdown from a parabolic uptrend and the start of a downtrend.

Analyst: DXY Needs to Cool Down

Well-known cryptocurrency analyst @Negentropic_ also looked at the US Dollar chart and stated that “the DXY needs to cool down.” He pointed out the breakout above the falling resistance line, which runs slightly differently on his chart.

Moreover, he stressed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already in overbought territory.

RSI is a momentum indicator traders use to assess whether the market is overbought or oversold. In addition, it helps them determine whether to accumulate or sell assets.

Readings above 50 and an uptrend suggest that the bulls still have an advantage. In contrast, readings below 50 indicate the opposite.

The RSI for the US dollar index recently exceeded the 70 level, which shows that the asset is overheated. Therefore, a correction is expected before the increase continues. Its trajectory will determine whether the US dollar will continue its uptrend.

Interestingly, the analyst is positive about the increase in the US dollar index regarding the potential benefits for the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin.

The long-term chart clearly shows a negative correlation between the DXY and BTC.

However, without a clear upward or downward trend during transitional periods, this correlation often disappears or even becomes positive (green areas). Therefore, @Negentropic_ does not hesitate to write:

“Greater market liquidity tends to benefit BTC in the long term, as investors seek alternative assets to hedge against sluggish economic growth.”

Saylor: Bitcoin is a lifeline

Meanwhile, famous investor and Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor has published a chart on X that pits the US dollar against other currencies.

The data shows that virtually all local currencies have been losing against the US Dollar over the past 10 years.

Despite this, Saylor still maintains his maximalist stance and bets on BTC. His conclusion is encapsulated in a short piece of advice:

“If you don’t have access to dollars, #bitcoin is a lifeline.”

So, according to the above data, the dollar seems to be a hedge against the weakening value of local currencies. However, if the above long-term negative correlation between the DXY and BTC is maintained, Bitcoin may prove to be a hedge against the dollar.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post US Dollar (DXY) Reaches One-Year Peak, but Michael Saylor Sees Bitcoin (BTC) as ‘Lifeline’ appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/altcoin-market-cap-breaks-out/

Commonly referred to as the altcoin capitalization (ALTCAP), it is currently 70% below its all-time high (ATH) set in November 2021. However, the long-term chart shows that a bullish pattern has been developing for many months, which could lead to the initiation of a strong uptrend.

If this happens, the coming weeks and months could bring a recovery in the altcoin market. Although altcoin capitalization needs to break through several key resistance levels, the target remains the ATH from the previous bull market after breaking out of the long-term pattern.

Altcoin Capitalization Breaks Out of a Falling Wedge

The altcoin capitalization is the total crypto market capitalization, excluding bitcoin. The altcoin capitalization reached an all-time high in November 2021 at $1.71 trillion. Since then, with the start of a bear market, ALTCAP has been in a long-term downtrend.

In June 2022, the chart appears to have reached the bottom of the ongoing cycle at $427.75 billion. It is true that as recently as November and December 2022, the weekly candles closed lower, but no capitulation led to a lower low.

Since the beginning of 2023, the ALTCAP chart seems to form a bullish structure. This is evidenced by the first higher high (HH) and higher low (HL) relative to the altcoin capitalization levels dropped in late 2022.

At the same time, the weekly chart on a logarithmic scale forms a bullish falling wedge pattern (blue). A falling wedge formation is characterized by a chart forming when the market reaches lower lows and lower peaks with a contracting range.

When this formation occurs in a downtrend, it is considered a trend reversal formation. A contracting range indicates that the downtrend is losing momentum.

The breakout target from this pattern, which has been in place for nearly 2.5 years, is the ATH at $1.71 trillion (black line). It is set by projecting the entire height of the wedge onto the breakout point from the pattern.

However, so far, the breakout from the wedge has only led to the formation of a higher high. Subsequently, altcoin capitalization fell again to make a bullish retest of the falling resistance line. This now serves as support.

Interestingly, this retest coincided with validating the horizontal support level at $494 billion (green line). This level has already served as support 4 times (arrows) and represents the range low of the ongoing accumulation.

The price cannot fall below this support level if the altcoin capitalization wants to maintain the uptrend.

Declining ALTCAP Volume Suggests Impending Volatility

The signals from the daily chart remain largely consistent with the weekly readings. Above all, for price action to be considered bullish, altcoin capitalization must overcome several resistance levels.

These are located at the closes of the key daily candles at $543 billion, $608 billion, and $657 billion (red lines). If the price were to reach these levels, it would be an increase of 4%, 16% and 25%, respectively, relative to the current price.

On the other hand, the key support remains in the $494 billion area (green line). Its loss could lead to a retest of the late 2022 bottom at $437 billion.

Important signals are coming from the trading volume signature and RSI. The volume bars have steadily decreased since March 2023 (blue line).

This signifies the ongoing compression of the trading range and the upcoming increase in volatility. Whether ALTCAP moves sharply towards resistance or support will determine the direction of the future trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), on the other hand, is giving moderately bullish readings. This is because back in mid-September, the RSI made a bearish test of the key 50 line.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a favorite among traders for assessing momentum to guide their asset acquisition or disposal decisions. When in an uptrend, an RSI reading surpassing 50 is deemed optimistic for bullish traders. Conversely, a reading beneath 50 is a bearish indicator.

However, it has since generated a higher low and surged higher. If the indicator crosses the 50 level (blue circle) and moves into bullish territory, it will confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Altcoin Total Market Capitalization Breaks Out From 2.5-Year Bullish Pattern appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/cryptobirb-end-sept-best-time-buy-bitcoin/

Many investors complained about the weak price action of Bitcoin (BTC) in September. Many others had already exited the market before the summer break, following the slogan: “Sell in May and go away.” However, it appears that now may be the best time to refocus on the broad crypto and BTC market.

A well-known cryptocurrency market analyst, CryptoBirb published on X a short analysis of the historical returns that BTC generates in the following months of the year. According to him, September – historically the weakest month – is the best opportunity for market returns. It is followed by the two statistically most profitable months – October and November.

CryptoBirb: September Is a BTC Buying Opportunity

The last weeks of September can provide an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. According to historical statistics, September is the only month of the year that, averaging the entire available history of BTC trading, has been loss-making. Therefore, CryptoBirb states:

“The second half of September is an insanely good opportunity to buy Bitcoin.”

At the same time, the analyst admits this thesis does not guarantee the best possible “buy the dip” opportunity in the ongoing week. It is purely a thesis based on statistical data that says nothing about future price action.

However, history often rhymes, especially in the cyclical Bitcoin market. Therefore, looking at the statistics of two consecutive months – October and November – CryptoBirb does not hesitate to point out probably the best time to take long positions on BTC.

Fourth Quarter of the Year: Biggest Returns for Bitcoin

To support CryptoBirb’s thesis, one can use statistics published by Coinglass. The analytics platform has detailed statistics on profit/loss in the BTC market in multiple time frames – from daily to quarterly.

First of all, it is worth noting that the fourth quarter of each year (October-December) is statistically the most profitable month of the year. Moreover, the third quarter (July-September) always follows the least profitable. Considering only this interval, it is obvious that the end of the third quarter is the best opportunity to buy BTC. These are precisely the ongoing last weeks of September.

Next, one can look at the monthly returns of Bitcoin trading. According to CryptoBirb’s observations, September is the reddest month of the year. In only two years – 2015 and 2016 – the month produced very small profits: 2.35% and 6.04%, respectively.

In contrast, the next two months are completely different. October has closed in the red only twice so far – in 2014 (-12.95%) and 2018 (-3.83%). November, on the other hand, has been in the red 4 times – in 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%) and 2022 (-16.23%).

However, even though November more often generated losses, that month’s profits were historically the largest. Therefore, the penultimate month of the year is statistically the most profitable. However, more conservative investors may pay more attention to October, which produced smaller but more stable profits and rarely minimal losses.

Past Performance vs. Future Results

From the above data, CryptoBirb’s analysis is indeed accurate. The last days of September could be an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. Especially when it seems that the long-term bear market has ended with the end of 2022.

However, one should always remember the maxim: “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” Historical data is a great source of knowledge and provides insight into the market.

Still, in the complex ecosystem of financial markets, it is only one of many components- and not the most important.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-halving-nearly-complete/

The cryptocurrency market is entering a very interesting phase. Bitcoin halving, which is expected to take place in mid-2024, is an event that is increasingly capturing the imagination of investors. However, if history rhymes, a mature bull market will not begin until next year at the earliest.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin halving is already 85% complete. At the same time, supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) is close to its all-time high (ATH). In previous cycles, this was a signal of the vicinity of a macro bottom, followed by the early phase of a new cycle.

Supply Held by Long-Term Holders Approaches ATH

The indicator of BTC supply in the hands of long-term holders has historically been a good measure of the health of the cryptocurrency market. Historically, this metric has negatively correlated with the long-term price action of the largest cryptocurrency.

Long-term hodlers keep (HODL) their assets unmoved during market bottoms. Moreover, the largest supply increase in LTH’s hands occurs during violent bear markets (red arrows). This is when investors with strong hands, seeing the price of BTC plummeting, are reluctant to sell. They hold on to their coins because they believe that the cryptocurrency market will bounce back in the future and their investment will prove profitable.

In contrast, the opposite is true during an unraveling bull market. The surge in BTC price causes LTHs to become more and more willing to sell their assets at a profit. Historically, during each major bull market, we have witnessed a dramatic drop in supply held by LTHs. Naturally, the coins then move into the hands of short-term holders (STHs), who join the market at a late stage, driven by the desire to make a quick profit.

Cryptocurrency analyst @therationalroot published a chart of Bitcoin supply in the hands of long-term holders on X. He also superimposed each halving Bitcoin on his drawing. In his chart, we notice first of all the fact that currently, the BTC supply ratio in the hands of LTHs is close to its ATH near 76%. This was set at the end of 2015 when the BTC price ended the accumulation phase before the second halving.

We then see that each time, the indicator reached the peak of a given cycle several months before Bitcoin halving (green circles) occurred. Then, after this local peak, the supply in the hands of LTHs gradually declined and headed sideways until several months after the next halving. It wasn’t until about 6 months after this event that there was a strong decline in this metric, and cryptocurrencies entered a mature bull market.

Bitcoin Halving is 85% Complete

The analyst above also published another chart showing Bitcoin’s halving percentage progress. It compares the time periods between the historical halving of the previous 3 cycles.

According to @therationalroot, the current Bitcoin halving is already 85% complete. Moreover, the relatively small 15% cycle-end periods were characterized by similar BTC price action sideways. On both occasions – in 2016 and 2020 – the price of the largest cryptocurrency remained similar.

The difference is that 2 cycles ago, Bitcoin experienced a sideways trend with an upward bias. In the previous cycle, on the other hand, the black swan caused by the COVID-19 crash gave investors an additional opportunity. They could take an attractive position right before the planned halving.

If history were to repeat itself, then – in the grand scheme of things – the cryptocurrency market could face a roughly one-year sideways trend. Bitcoin halving, scheduled for mid-April 2024, may not immediately impact the price of BTC. Its effects may become apparent only in the last quarter of 2024 and throughout 2025.

This prediction is in line with the trends seen on the chart of supply held by long-term holders. The indicator is currently approaching the ATH. It will also need about 12 months to reverse its trend and move into a distribution phase. When LTHs start selling after Bitcoin halves, it will be one of the first signals of the beginning of a cryptocurrency bull run.

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https://beincrypto.com/shrimps-accumulate-btc-get-smarter/

The cryptocurrency market is full of creatures. Each species represents the corresponding type of investor for its size. Which in on-chain analysis is simply an address with a specific BTC balance.

The humblest of the crypto-animals are shrimps. These are investors who hold less than 1 BTC in their hands. They broadly represent a group of retail investors. Interestingly, on-chain analysis shows that they are getting smarter.

The recent long-term trend of shrimp buying the dips is a sign of growing adoption and education in the crypto space. Moreover, when juxtaposed with the percentage of addresses in profit, it may signal an impending bull market.

Shrimp Are Getting Smarter and Buying the Dips

Leading Glassnode analyst @_Checkmatey_ published a tweet yesterday highlighting his “favorite chart.” It relates to the long-term behavior of the so-called shrimps, i.e., Bitcoin network addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC.

In the chart, we see many details that illustrate the radical change in the behavior of small Bitcoin investors over two consecutive cycles of the cryptocurrency market. First of all, on the left side of the chart, we see a spike (red circle) at the end of 2017.

At that time, at the very end of the previous cycle’s bull market, shrimps bought more than 50,000 BTC during the month. Collective FOMO trapped short-term investors who learned the basics of investing the hard way.

In contrast, on the right side of the chart, we see the behavior of the same shrimp addresses at the end of the 2022 bear market. Interestingly, the explosion in retail buying occurred at two market lows – during the collapse of 3AC (June- July) and the implosion of FTX (November- December).

We get additional positive information when analyzing the behavior of small investors from January 2022 until now (green arrow). It turns out that shrimps are steadily increasing their positions and stacking sats. Shrimps have accumulated as much as 1.35 million BTC, representing 6.9% of the supply of the largest cryptocurrency.

Crypto Education in Making

Checkmate comments on his chart in a very optimistic tone. Regardless of the price action, he points out that the extremely different behavior of on-chain retailers suggests growing adoption and investor awareness. In addition, he notes the effectiveness of multi-track education in the cryptocurrency sector. The analyst writes:

“I believe this chart above all others presents the success of the tireless efforts, breadth of conversation, and shared wisdom of the #Bitcoin education machine.”

In his view, such informed and bold buying of the dips would not have been possible without retail investors’ corresponding level of knowledge. Moreover, he stresses, “Bitcoin doesn’t pay us to learn, speak, study and analyse this thing.” This effort is an added value in the cryptocurrency community. Which believes that its common good is the selfless exchange of ideas and the spread of crypto evangelization. Checkmate concludes:

“Bitcoin is a forcing function for a better world. Not because we change it, or because it necessarily changes the world. Bitcoin changes us, for the better, and ya love to see it.”

Addresses in Profit Test Double Historical Support

Shrimps are getting smarter and buying Bitcoin at the best price. Alos, there is an interesting situation on the long-term chart of the percentage of BTC addresses in profit. This indicator shows the percentage of unique addresses whose coins have an average purchase price lower than the current price.

First of all, we see that the recent declines in the BTC price have led the metric to re-test the historical support area in the 55-60% range (blue area). At the beginning of the previous two bull markets (red arrows), this area acted as support and signaled the start of an uptrend.

Of course, in the first quarter of 2020, there was a significant deviation below this level. This was a consequence of the black swan in the financial markets caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic (purple arrow).

There is a chance that holding this area will also act as a catalyst for a forthcoming Bitcoin bull market. Moreover, shrimps can be expected to continue buying if their balances remain in profit.

Moreover, the metric of the percentage of addresses in profit seems to follow a long-term increasing support line (black). This line has been validated twice before (yellow circles) and has had two deviations below it.

Currently, the chart is testing this historical support again. With the confluence of the 55-60% range, there is a good chance that a bounce will occur. If this happens, it could provide another on-chain signal that a cryptocurrency bull market has begun.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-mining-turning-unprofitable/

As the Bitcoin network becomes more efficient and secure, concerns are being raised about the profitability of BTC miners. Some argue that their declining revenues could, over time, lead to the shutdown of more mining pools, slowing and eventual collapse of the largest blockchain.

On-chain analysis shows that, indeed, both the hash rate of the Bitcoin network and mining difficulty of successive blocks are today at all-time highs. Is there still room for proper earnings for miners in such an energy-intensive and technologically advanced network? Or will declining earnings – as measured by the hash price index – lead to the termination of more mining businesses?

Hash Rate and Mining Difficulty Hit ATH

Hash rate is a basic indicator of the performance and security of the Bitcoin network. It is calculated based on the average estimated number of hashes per second produced by the network’s miners.

On the long-term chart of the hash rate (30-day moving average), we can see its exponential growth since the inception of the oldest blockchain. Currently, the indicator is constantly recording consecutive all-time highs (ATH) and is in the vicinity of 400 million TH/s.

In addition, periodic corrections can be seen, such as at the end of the bear market in 2018 or during the famous China ban in the summer of 2021 (red areas). In the latter case, the hash rate fell by almost 50% from 165 TH/s to 96 TH/s.

For those who understand how the Bitcoin network works, it is obvious that as the computing power measured by the hash rate increases, so does the difficulty of mining BTC. The graph of this indicator is almost identical to the hash rate and today also records its ATH.

If, on the other hand, computing power decreases – for example, by BTC miners disconnecting from the network – the mining difficulty also decreases. It is worth mentioning that the latter adjusts after about 2 weeks (or exactly after 2,016 blocks).

Hash Price Reaches All-Time Low

However, the increasing difficulty of mining and the hash rate of the Bitcoin network are challenging BTC miners. This is because it turns out that more and more resources, energy, equipment and computing power must be involved to compete for block mining rewards.

What’s more, these rewards are halved on average every four years as a result of programmed halving. Currently, the reward for block mining is 6.25 BTC. However, another halving will take place around April 2024, which will reduce it to 3.125 BTC.

So BTC miners are facing two unfavorable trends. On the one hand, it is becoming increasingly difficult to compete with numerous rivals, huge computing power and mining blocks. On the other hand, even successful block mining no longer guarantees such high rewards as in the past.

In general, this leads to a steady decline in miners’ income. One of the most well-known on-chain analysts @woonomic expresses this trend with the hash price indicator. This is the revenue generated by miners on a per terahash basis.

The long-term graph of this indicator is in a long-term downward trend. In a sense, it is the inverse of the hash rate chart, but remains more prone to fluctuations of the BTC price. This is obvious because as the price of BTC increases, miners’ revenues also increase.

Currently, the hash price chart is near the all-time low (ATL). This has raised some concerns about the viability of mining operations and, consequently, the security of the entire Bitcoin network.

Will Bitcoin Mining Become Unprofitable?

Another well-known on-chain analyst @DylanLeClair_ recently spoke on the issue. In a short video, he outlined a hypothetical, bleak future for the Bitcoin network, in which miners do not receive enough reward for their work. They are shutting down their businesses as maintaining the massive amount of equipment and electricity bills become too much to stay profitable.

This leads to the termination of their businesses and an exodus of equipment from the network. The hash rate drops. This then triggers longer transaction times, a spike in transaction fees that can’t be validated on an ongoing basis due to the loss of miners. Blockchain is slowing down.

However, here the analyst points out that this is what the Bitcoin system’s idea of self-regulation is for. Well, after just 2 weeks or so, the mining difficulty adjusts to the new environment and reduced computing power. The business of any miner who has maintained his equipment and is still participating in the network suddenly becomes more profitable. Revenues and hash price increase.

Therefore, Dylan LeClair concludes, no bailouts are needed for miners whose businesses are in danger of collapse. There is no need for government care for these companies, no need to compensate them. The Bitcoin network adjusts itself by virtue of a cryptographic algorithm.

In comments to these explanations, Glassnode’s lead analyst, @_Checkmatey_ tweeted a meme that illustrates “Bitcoin security budget concerns.”

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

The post Is Bitcoin Mining Turning Unprofitable? Hash Price Reaches All-Time Low appeared first on BeInCrypto.

https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-realized-price-volatility-will-btc-plunge/

Bitcoin is currently in a very wobbly position. The price action remains just above fragile support in the $25,000 area. Its loss could lead to a sharp decline.

On the other hand, the uptrend, which has been in place since the beginning of 20203, does not seem to be broken. There is a chance that holding this level will initiate a bounce, which could eventually lead to a breakout through resistance at $30,000.

Both scenarios seem possible with on-chain analysis. The realized price and historically low volatility suggest that a big move in the cryptocurrency market is coming. The price of BTC could retest $20,000.

Realized Price in Bitcoin Historical Cycles

The realized price of Bitcoin is an indicator that divides the realized market capitalization by the current supply. In turn, the realized capitalization values different parts of the supply at different prices (instead of using the current daily close). Specifically, this metric computes by valuing each UTXO at the price when it was last moved.

We see cyclical similarities in a long-term chart of the realized price against the daily BTC price action. First of all, in each cycle, the market capitulation period began when the BTC price dropped below the realized price (red circles).

At the same time, this was always the last stage of the bear market, where each time, the Bitcoin price established the macro bottom of the full cycle.

Then, we see that the opposite event – the breakout of the BTC price above the realized price (green circles) – started a long-term bull market. From then on, Bitcoin price (rarely) fell below the realized price until the end of the bear market of the next cycle.

The only exception is March 2020, when the price of BTC also declined sharply due to the COVID-19 crash in global markets. Then, the largest cryptocurrency made a bullish retest of the realized price (blue circle). This moment turned out to be an excellent buying opportunity.

Looking at the events of the current cycle, we see these similarities. Bitcoin dropped below the realized price in June 2022. It then oscillated around this line for a long time before capitulating with the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022.

In contrast, as early as January 2023, BTC broke the downward trend and initiated a bounce. It led to a recovery and a quick retest of the realized price line.

Will BTC Retest $20,000?

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at a key support in the $25,000 area. Technical analysis suggests that a drop to the next support at $23,500 is possible if it is lost. However, can BTC dip even lower and retest $20,000?

The realized price chart alone shows that such a possibility is in the cards. Currently, the indicator is almost exactly in this area. Therefore – if a scenario similar to March 2020 were to play out – the BTC price could still dip below $20,000. If the analysis of Bitcoin cycles is correct, this would be an excellent buying opportunity.

Moreover, famous analyst @WClementeIII published yesterday on X a long-term chart of the BTC price and color bands based on various on-chain indicators. He believes that:

“Bitcoin is in a tricky spot from a HTF [High Time Frames] valuation perspective across multiple metrics.”

He does not rule out a drop to the lower range (purple and blue lines). The purple line on his chart is our realized price. While the blue one marks the 1 standard deviation from the median (orange).

Also, Clemente suggests possibly testing the bottom of the range he outlined. He adds, “Any retests of those lower bounds are for buying.”

Historically Low Volatility: A Big BTC Move Is Coming

Another well-known long-term analyst @el_crypto_prof pointed out Bitcoin’s extremely low volatility on high time frames yesterday. In a tweet he published, he highlighted the BBWP (Bollinger Band Width Percentile) indicator for the 2-week chart of BTC.

For the first time in history, Bitcoin has reached minimum blue volatility in this time frame. The Bollinger Bands, within which the BTC price moves, are today the tightest in the entire history of Bitcoin.

One should always expect a sharp move and an increase in volatility after such a compression period. Unfortunately, the BBWP remains directionally neutral, so it is unclear whether there is a greater chance of an upward or downward move.

Also, the relative strength index (RSI) on the 2-week interval remains in the neutral area of 50. This indicates that there is no clear trend direction.

Therefore, a sharp move in the coming weeks could go in two directions. The BTC price will fall to test the realized price level near $20,000 in a bearish scenario. This would be an excellent opportunity to enter the market.

In the bullish scenario, the increase in volatility will coincide with the resumption of the uptrend. Then, the first and most important resistance to overcome will be the psychological threshold of $30,000. Its recovery would be a very bullish signal ahead of the impending halving of the Bitcoin network.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/stellar-price-bullish-more-upside-next/

Stellar (XLM) is one of these rare altcoins that boasts a long and positive trading history. Created in 2014 and launched a year later, the protocol for payment providers and financial institutions has been at the top of the cryptocurrency rankings for years.

Long-term analysis shows that the Stellar price may now be on the threshold of a new bull market. If the scenario of the previous two cycles plays out, XLM could surge as much as 350% over the next several months.

Stellar Price Enters Bull Market

A long-term, monthly chart of the XLM price gives an insight into the altcoin’s history since its launch in 2015. Unlike many cryptocurrencies launched then, the Stellar price chart offers a bullish outlook.

Most notably, the Stellar price experienced two bull markets reaching similarly high valuations. In early 2018, the XLM price reached an all-time high (ATH) of $0.93. Meanwhile, during the previous bull market, it reached $0.80 in May 2021.

Interestingly, the monthly candles closed in the $0.53 area in both cases, now serving as long-term resistance and the target of the next bull market. If the Stellar price were to rise to this area from its current valuation of $0.12, it would represent a 350% surge.

Another bullish signal is the ascending long-term support line (blue), which has existed since April 2017. So far, the macro lows of the previous two bear markets have validated it as support (blue circles).

Moreover, the Stellar price on the monthly chart has formed a rarely observed long-term hidden bullish divergence. The RSI indicator recorded a lower low in 2022 than the 2020 low (orange line). In contrast, the XLM price formed a higher low over the same period.

XLM Is Heating Up

Market analyst @PUKACharts provided additional arguments for an imminent breakout of the XLM price in a recent post. Also, he looked at the monthly chart of the Stellar price and concluded that “XLM is heating up.”

Among his bullish arguments were:

1. Breakout above the 10-month SMA
2. A confirmed bullish cross on the MACD
3. Both signals appear in the green window of the bull market
4. Breakout above the POC (red line)
5. Breakout above the resistance line on the OBV indicator (blue chart at the bottom)

The most important element of this long-term analysis is that for the past month, the Stellar price has been trading in the green area of the bull market. If the scenario of the previous two uptrends plays out, the long-term target will be those above the $0.53 level.

XLM Price Prediction: The Nearest Resistance at $0.24

The weekly chart confirms the bullish signals of the monthly time frame. The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market has led the Stellar price to drop from a local peak of $0.20 reached in early July 2023. However, the downward move looks corrective and is currently at the 0.618 Fib retracement level. This level usually serves as support.

In addition, the XLM price has validated the horizontal support area at $0.11. Previously, it has repeatedly served as resistance and support (blue circles). If a bounce occurs, the next resistance level is $0.24, which marks the close of the weekly candle from March 2022.

However, if a breakdown occurs, the Stellar price will likely retest the long-term rising support line. It is currently located in the vicinity of $0.08.

A bullish reading is also provided by the RSI, which, despite its recent decline, remains above the key 50 level. If the RSI remains above 50 and the trend is upward, the bulls have the advantage. The opposite is true if the RSI is below 50 with a downtrend. If the indicator bounces off this key area and increases, this will confirm a bullish trend reversal for the XLM price.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/doge-price-volatility-low-upswing-next/

After the recent cryptocurrency market crash, the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) stagnated daily. This quickly led to a drop in volatility, which today records levels from October 2022 to May 2023.

The upcoming move could lead to an upward move of 170% or a drop of another 34%. A hidden bullish divergence could increase the chances of the former scenario. However, for this, it will be necessary for the Dogecoin price to break out of the long-term descending triangle successfully.

Dogecoin Price in a Long-Term Descending Triangle

The weekly chart of Dogecoin provides mixed signals that are characteristic of a long-term accumulation period. Since January 2022, i.e., for 84 weeks already, the DOGE price has been in a relatively narrow trading channel between the bottom at $0.055 and the peak at $0.160.

Moreover, Dogecoin is moving in a descending triangle formation (blue lines), outside of which the price has not closed since April 2022, or 16 months. Despite several deviations above (blue areas), the formation holds.

Moreover, the volume, which has been declining regularly since October 2022 (orange line), confirms its validity.

The descending triangle is most often a bearish formation of the continuation of the downtrend. However – especially on the high interval – it often ends in a long-term decline. If this was the case here, the breakout from this formation, which should occur in the next few weeks, could be confirmation of a bullish trend reversal.

The relative strength index (RSI) also provides mixed signals. With the RSI as a momentum indicator, investors can determine whether the market is overbought or oversold. In addition, they decide whether to accumulate or sell assets.

Bulls have an advantage if the RSI reading is above 50 and the trend is upward. However, if the reading is below 50, the opposite is true. Currently, the weekly RSI for Dogecoin is at 41 and dropping. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend.

However, a bullish signal is that despite the declines, the weekly RSI is holding the ascending support line (blue), which has been in place since January 2022. If the indicator does not break below 40, an upward bounce is possible in the coming weeks.

DOGE Price Prediction: A 170% Increase or Another 34% Decrease?

The daily chart of the DOGE price also provides mixed signals. However, several bullish arguments can be seen in this time frame. First of all, recent declines in the cryptocurrency market have not generated a lower low, measured at closing prices. This means that Dogecoin effectively holds the $0.060 level as support.

Moreover, the sharp decline in mid-August brought the daily RSI to the overbought area. As a result, a small hidden bullish divergence (blue lines) appeared on the chart.

This formation appears when the price of an asset does not fall below the previous low, but the RSI records lower values. A short-term upside can be expected if the hidden divergence plays out correctly.

Finally, the daily chart of Dogecoin is seeing extremely low levels of volatility. This is evidenced by the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) indicator, which reached a minimum blue level today.

Although this indicator says nothing about future movement direction, it suggests a major price change is imminent.

The last two times the BBWP reached the extremely low volatility level, there was a big move in the DOGE price on consecutive days. The first time it happened was in October 2022. The Dogecoin price surged 170% and reached the top of its long-term range just below $0.160.

In contrast, the second time the minimum volatility occurred was in May 2023. After this event, the DOGE price dropped 34% to a low of $0.053.

A hidden bullish divergence could lead to the nearest resistance level at $0.082 and an attempt to break out of the long-term descending triangle. On the other hand, if increased volatility leads to a continuation of declines, the long-term area at $0.048 is likely to serve as support.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/long-term-btc-holder-pattern-cycles/

The Bitcoin cycles hypothesis is confirmed and recurs in analyzing various on-chain indicators. Its driving force is halving, which takes place every 4 years or so and splits in half the miner’s BTC reward.

In particular, the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin gives valuable clues about the stage of the cycle of the largest cryptocurrency. Patient investors who remain unaffected by momentary shifts in the crypto markets are repeating certain cyclical behavior.

Cost Basis and MVRV Cycles

Currently, two on-chain indicators of long-term holders seem to repeat the pattern of previous cycles. Cost Basis and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) are building a kind of plateau.

If the history of the pre-halving period repeats itself, this could be a prelude and catalyst for a future bull market in the crypto market.

Plateau in LTH Cost Basis

Well-known on-chain analyst @theratinalroot published a cost basis chart on X for long-term Bitcoin holders. The cost basis is nothing more than the purchase price of an asset. This indicator is crucial for calculating the gains or losses generated by the asset held.

According to the published chart, the cost basis of long-term Bitcoin holders is currently forming a sort of plateau. This was identical in the previous two cycles when a correction followed sharp increases in the cryptocurrency market.

The plateau can be seen in the chart of the cost basis (dashed line). The value of this indicator for long-term holders remains relatively constant for about 3 years. During each cycle, the BTC price (red chart) periodically drops below the LTH cost basis during this period.

This indicates the capitulation of long-term holders and relatively short-lived periods in which they record unrealized losses.

After that, the LTH cost basis increases sharply for about 1 year and stabilizes again during the next bear market.

In addition, the analyst draws a chart of the 90-day change of this indicator to illustrate further the accumulation period between a bull market and a bull market (blue arrows). The bounce period seems to have begun, and the BTC price is well above the cost base of long-term holders. In conclusion, @theratinalroot writes:

“The decrease, observed by the 90-day change, is slowing down, indicating a repetition of past cycles.”

MVRV of Long-Term Holders Increases Again

We are currently seeing a similar repeat of the pattern from past cycles on the MVRV metric for long-term holders. Market value to realized value (MVRV) is the ratio of market cap and realized cap. This ratio tells you when the market price is below “fair value”.

The MVRV for LTH has reached the oversold green area in the previous two cycles. Historically, this has proven to be the best time to buy BTC. Also, in the current cycle, the MVRV was (with minor interruptions) below the value of 1 from June 2022 to March 2023.

Even despite the recent declines in the cryptocurrency market, the MVRV of long-term holders is still at a safe level of 1.28. This means the best time to buy BTC has passed, and long-term holders are recording profits.

However, a re-test of the green area in the near future is still not out of the question. Such a situation occurred 3 months before the previous halving when the price of BTC dropped sharply due to the COVID-19 crash (red circle).

In contrast, 4 years earlier, when the MVRV for LTH decisively left the oversold area in November 2015, it did not return there until the end of the 2018 bear market.

Regardless of which scenario plays out this cycle, it appears that the behavior of long-term holders signals the start of a long-term bull market. Both the cost basis and MVRV for LTH make a strong case for the thesis of Bitcoin’s cyclical nature and impending bull market.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-price-dips-hope-amidst-decline/

The Ethereum (EHT) price has declined since the cryptocurrency market crash in mid-August. The downward movement resulted in the loss of many important support levels, but the ETH price is currently trying to rebalance.

If the Ethereum price holds the key $1,630 area, a short-term bounce can complete a bearish retest of the $1,800 level. However, if the decline continues, the next important support is at $1,375.

Ethereum Price Loses Median of Parallel Channel

The weekly chart of Ethereum provides some bearish signals. First, the ETH price has been trading in an ascending parallel channel for over a year. Since then, the median of this channel has served as resistance and support (blue areas) several times.

However, sharp declines in the cryptocurrency market have recently led to the loss of this key support line. It is currently located near the $1,800 level. In case of a bounce, this area is now expected to act as resistance.

On the other hand, if the decline continues, the lower edge of the channel is located at the level of $1,375. This level is in confluence with the low generated at the beginning of March 2023. Therefore, support should be expected here.

The bearish outlook is reinforced by the fact that the last two weekly closes were below the $1,720 level. This level was a higher low in June 2023 and coincided with the channel median.

The loss of this support caused the Ethereum price to generate a lower low on the weekly chart for the first time since the macro low of June 2022.

ETH Price Prediction: Hold Key Support

The daily chart confirms many of the readings from the weekly time frame. However, not all signals are bearish. First, the loss of an important diagonal support line (blue), which has been in place since November 2022, can also be seen here. The Ethereum price confirmed this line 4 times before finally breaking down from it on August 17.

Breaks from such long-term structures usually indicate a trend reversal. Here, the downward move suggests that a downtrend may have begun. However, unlike on the weekly chart, the lower low is not yet confirmed as long as the ETH price holds the support area around $1,630 (green).

Should the Ethereum price initiate a bounce here, the nearest resistance would be the $1,800 level, which is the inflection point and loss of the diagonal support line. Moreover, it is in confluence with the median of the rising parallel channel from the previous section.

The daily technical indicators provide other slightly bullish signals. The RSI has already emerged from the overbought area (below 30) and is rising despite the price continuously declining. This suggests the potential for a bullish divergence and could lead to at least a short-term upward move.

Moreover, the MACD is close to a bullish crossing (blue circle), generating the first green momentum bar since August 15. If this happens, a move to resistance at $1,800 is possible.

However, further declines seem inevitable if the Ethereum price loses support at $1,630. Then, the nearest support area is only at $1,370, which is 16% below the current price.

If this support is lost as well, then a move all the way to the late 2022 bottom at $1,155 is possible. This would mean a drop of 30%.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/buying-house-us-expensive-70-annual-budget/

There is no good news from the real estate market in the United States. Rising interest rates, inflation, and the specter of a recession are pushing home purchase and rental housing prices to unprecedented levels.

Buying a house in the US today is extremely expensive, as rising demand is not keeping up with the supply of properties available on the market. This has led to an absurd phenomenon where there are currently more real estate agents in the US than single-family homes available for sale.

Buying a House Getting Further Out of Reach for Many

The official account of The Kobeissi Letter, an industry-leading analyst of global capital markets, recently published the latest data on the US real estate market. The exponentially rising costs of renting and buying a house in the United States show the extent of the real estate market’s crisis.

The data shows that the average cost of buying a house has reached a new all-time high of $2,748 per month. Since 2020, this represents a 90% increase. This alarming spike is illustrated by the parabolic yellow line in the chart below.

If translated to an annual scale, an American today needs to spend nearly $33,000 to pay for the house he or she buys.

These numbers are extremely high when compared to average incomes in the US. This is because it turns out that $33,000 represents 46% of the median annual pre-tax income in the US. However, post-tax US house buyers spend almost 70% of their income on household fees.

The blue line represents the median monthly cost for a rented apartment. According to published data, this value has reached a new all-time high of $1,859 per month. On an annual basis, this totals just over $22,000.

The analyst firm concludes:

“How has it become too difficult to have a place to live?”

More Realtors Than Houses for Sale

Indeed, it turns out that even during the housing bubble in 2008, the median cost of buying a house peaked at $1,500 per month. By contrast, that level has nearly doubled today and is rising rapidly.

Naturally, one of the key factors behind such high prices is the monetary policy of the US central bank. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, affordability will only worsen. This will only strengthen the looming recession that is building in the US.

Current mortgage rates in the US are the highest in 2 decades. Moreover, the record $1 trillion in credit card debt is fueling the fire. In turn, this comes with ever-increasing debt interest rates. The spiral is only growing.

Household incomes have not kept pace with inflationary pressures. At the same time, house prices have risen significantly, and there is little supply. Current homeowners are simply not interested in selling if they have a stable 2-3% mortgage interest rate.

Real estate analyst @TomekNarkun also recently reported on X statistics for the US. In recent years, the shrinking supply of single-family homes has led to a pretty absurd situation.

Currently, there are more registered realtors in the US market than there are available single-family homes.

The long-term chart shows that the number of realtors in the US topped the number of available homes around the COVID-19 crisis. Since then, the two charts have moved further and further apart.

This indicates a dramatically increasing supply of houses and real estate in general while demand for a place to live has increased. The result of such an economy can only be a dynamic increase in the price and cost of houses for sale.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/hash-ribbons-flash-btc-buy-signal/

For the second time in 2023, the blue “Buy” signal on the Hash Ribbons indicator flashed on. If the situation from January is repeated, Bitcoin will likely surge 27% and reach its target of $37,300.

The possibility of a big move in the cryptocurrency market is further enhanced by the very low volatility of the Bitcoin price. The BBWP indicator shows minimal volatility of BTC, which suggests that a big move in the cryptocurrency market is coming. Interestingly, similar conditions of reduced volatility appeared with the previous bullish signal from Hash Ribbons.

Hash Ribbons Flashes Blue

The Hash Ribbons indicator is based on the hash rate, the basic performance parameter of the Bitcoin network. The hash rate represents the amount of computing power that all BTC miners are currently generating.

Hash Ribbons is based on the relation between the hash rate indicator’s two moving averages (SMAs): the 30-day SMA and the 60-day SMA. In addition, the indicator relates to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages of the BTC price.

Previously, the indicator generated a blue signal on January 14, 2023. This weekend, on August 12, to be exact, Hash Ribbons turned blue for the second time this year.

The basic interpretation of the blue “Buy” signal is that the bottom of the Bitcoin price generated immediately before the signal appears is a macro bottom of the BTC market. Simply put, buying Bitcoin at the time of the signal generates potentially large long-term profits with little downside risk.

The previous time, the price of BTC increased by about 27% after the signal appeared: from the level of $20,000 to the peak at $25,300. If the identical scenario were to repeat now, BTC could reach the $37,300 level in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Low Volatility Suggests an Upcoming Move

The possibility of a large move in the cryptocurrency market is increased by the dramatically low volatility of the BTC price. This is indicated by the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP). This metric is based on Bollinger Bands (blue areas), which determine the asset’s trading channel width.

BBWP calculates the percentage of past bars where the width of the Bollinger Bands was less than the current one. In other words, the smaller this percentage (blue), the lower the volatility of the asset. Conversely, the higher the values (red), the higher the volatility relative to the comparable period. Usually, short periods of low volatility are followed by an expansion phase and a large move of the analyzed asset.

The chart below shows that BBWP is currently reaching lows below 5% on the Bitcoin daily chart. What’s more, the metric even generated 3 blue bars, which indicate minimal volatility.

It turns out that an analogous situation took place just before the appearance of the previous “Buy” signal from Hash Ribbons. Then the volatility of the BTC price was so low that BBWP recorded as many as 8 blue bars in the period immediately preceding the blue dot.

Support and Resistance According to Hash Ribbons

However, it is worth noting that the BBWP volatility indicator alone does not give any clue about the direction of expansion. This means that based on it, both a large move up (green arrow) and down (red arrow) are equally likely.

Despite this, the chances of an upward move are enhanced by the blue signal from Hash Ribbons. Then the target of $37,300 seems to be in play. However, should BBWP expansion lead to a downward move, the $25,000 support (green) would be the first target.

If the basic interpretation of the Hash Ribbons “Buy” signal remains correct, then the BTC price should no longer drop below the $25,000 low. However, previous historical analysis by BeInCrypto shows that the indicator has already been wrong 3 times in the last few years.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-sopr-analysis-bullish/

Since the end of June 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a narrow range between $29,000 – $31,000. Short-term deviations from this tight trading channel have not resulted in a breakout or breakdown in the price of the largest asset.

However, the latest on-chain analysis of the SOPR indicator shows bullish signals for potentially another upward move. If the bullish scenario plays out, BTC could rise as much as 35% in the next few weeks with a target of $38,600.

Short-Term SOPR Gives Bullish Signals

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an on-chain indicator that is calculated by dividing the realized value (in USD) by the value when creating the realized output (in USD). In other words, it is the selling price/buying price. Adjusted SOPR, on the other hand, is the same indicator, only ignoring all outputs with a lifespan of less than 1 hour.

We see a recurring pattern in the short-term aSOPR chart from the first half of 2023. It has already signaled upward movements three times, occurring in February, March, and June.

The pattern looks like this: first, the aSOPR reaches highs around 1.04-1.05. Then it starts to print lower highs and lower lows (red arrows), which come with consolidating the BTC price. Then the SOPR drops and moves below 1 for a while.

Then, at some point, there is a noticeable exhaustion of the downward trend of this on-chain indicator, and the first higher lows appear. The chart begins to turn back upward (blue arrows). The key here is the breakthrough of level 1, and sometimes its bullish validation (green circles).

If this pattern is also repeated under current market conditions, the price of BTC could surge again. For this to happen, it is necessary for aSOPR to approve line 1 as support.

BTC Price Prediction: Target at $38,600

Based on the SOPR analysis, one can now find targets for Bitcoin’s potential upward move. Juxtapose the indicator’s breakout periods (blue boxes) and returns on the BTC price chart.

Since the second half of June, the BTC price has been moving (with slight deviations) in a narrow range between $29,000 – $31,000. This range stabilized after a sizable upward move in mid-June, which generated 29% profits.

The previous two legs up in 2023 occurred in mid-March and mid-February. The former was Bitcoin’s strongest upward move of the year, leading to a 59% surge. In contrast, the latter was weaker but still generated an 18% gain.

Then one can draw the arithmetic average of all these 3 upward moves, which are in confluence with the SOPR indicator. Then we get a potential upward move of 35% of the Bitcoin price.

This would bring the BTC price to its target of $38,600. Before that, an important resistance to overcome would be the level of $36,000 at the 0.382 Fib retracement, measuring the long-term downward movement from the all-time high of November 2021. If this area could be broken, it would be another signal of the end of the Bitcoin price correction and the start of a new bull market in the cryptocurrency market.

However, the bullish scenario will be invalidated if Bitcoin begins to close daily candles below the $28,300 level. Then a move to the previous swing low in the $25,000 area will be probable.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/altcoin-market-lows-bullish-signal/

The altcoin market has had a disastrous 2022 and a neutral but hopeful first half of 2023. Long-term indicators of altcoin’s strength against Bitcoin are at historic lows today.

According to long-term data from the Altcoin Season Index, the altcoin market has dropped to levels last seen in 2019-2020. This information alone does not make altcoin holders optimistic. However, historical data shows that these lows preceded the exponential bull market of the TOTAL2 chart, which began in late 2020.

Altcoin Market at 2019-2020 Lows

Data about the potential altcoin season by BlockchainCenter expresses the relationship between the growth of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) relative to the growth of the price of the TOP 50 altcoins. If the BTC price is increasing more (or decreasing less) than the prices of the top altcoins, this suggests an ongoing Bitcoin season (values below 25). On the other hand, if the BTC price is declining more (or increasing less) than the altcoins, this is a sign that the altcoin market is dominant (values above 75).

Naturally, most of the time, the chart runs in the neutral range between 25 and 75. This indicates that neither the Bitcoin market nor the altcoin market currently dominates the cryptocurrency sector.

Moreover, the Altcoin Season Index contains 3 time frames: monthly, quarterly (seasonal), and yearly. And it is in the latter, the long-term one, that today we can see a clear Bitcoin season and the decline of the altcoin market to historical lows (blue areas).

We see above that the altcoin market dropped to historic lows back in January 2019. However, it bounced back soon after, only to plunge again and start a long-term accumulation. It lasted from May 2019 to June 2020.

Extrapolating this 13-month period to today’s market conditions, it can be assumed that the altcoin market will remain at these lows until September 2024. If this were to happen, the altcoin bull market would start about six months after Bitcoin’s halving. Which, according to the latest data by BuyBitcoinWorldwide, is forecast for April 17, 2024.

It is worth mentioning that only 5 altcoins from the TOP 50 of the market capitalization ranking can boast higher returns than BTC in the last year. These are INJ (242%), XDC (68%), XRP (56%), BCH (50%), and LTC (25%), respectively. Bitcoin, meanwhile, saw a 14.3% increase, outpacing all other 44 altcoins.

TOTAL2 in Long-Term Accumulation

The above predictions stay in confluence with the previous cryptocurrency market cycle events. If we look at the long-term chart of the altcoin market total capitalization (TOTAL2), we see fractal similarities between the cycles.

In 2017, the altcoin market experienced an exponential bull market, which took TOTAL2 to a peak of $474.50 billion in January 2018. The market then declined sharply for 12 months until bottoming out at $36.75 billion in December 2018.

The macro bottom marked the end of the bear market and initiated long-term accumulation. Its main phase was between May 2019 and June 2020 (green area). According to the Altcoin Season Index, This period corresponds to the range in which the altcoin market was at historic lows against Bitcoin.

Immediately after that, the mature phase of the bull market began. TOTAL2 surged again exponentially and reached an all-time high (ATH) of $1.71 trillion in November 2021.

Further down the line, history rhymed again, and the altcoin market lost about 75% of its value. Falling to a bottom at $427.57 billion in June 2022. 6 months later, TOTAL2 approached that bottom (blue circle) again, forming a bullish double-bottom pattern.

The revival and bounce we have seen since early 2023 initiated the accumulation phase or early stage of the bull market. However, the altcoin market only this month dropped to historic lows against BTC. If the accumulation phase continues again for another 13 months, the start of the mature phase of the bull market can be predicted for around September 2024.

This means that altcoin holders still have a long way to go to make profits comparable to previous cycles. However, on the other hand, it provides more opportunities to build a long-term portfolio that can yield impressive returns during the next bull market.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-accumulation-on-chain-indicator-nupl/

NUPL is one of the best-known indicators of on-chain analysis. Currently, its readings are in the yellow range of optimism, which has historically suggested that Bitcoin accumulation is underway. Will history rhyme this time too?

How long will Bitcoin (BTC) accumulate last before investors realize large profits comparable to previous cryptocurrency market bull markets? This question, which in itself expresses hope for a positive future for the crypto sector, can be answered with the NUPL indicator.

NUPL: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) expresses the difference between relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss. Another way to calculate this ratio is to subtract the realized market capitalization from the total market capitalization and then divide the result by the latter number.

The charm of this indicator is that on the chart from Glassnode, its raw data are colored in 5 different colors. These correspond to the different emotional states (from fear to greed) that most investors are experiencing at different stages of the Bitcoin cycle.

The colored areas make it easier to identify the recurring phases of the cycle visually and can also suggest the future direction of the market.

Currently, the NUPL for Bitcoin is in the yellow range between 0.25-0.50, which suggests investor optimism. Interestingly, historically, this area has always coincided with the period of Bitcoin accumulation characteristic of an early bull market (blue boxes).

However, it is worth adding that this was only the case when NUPL had already bounced out of the red capitulation area. This happened only after the BTC price reached a macro bottom.

Moreover, in 2020, NUPL recorded the red area for the second consecutive time due to the COVID-19 crash.

In contrast, when NUPL reached the yellow area as a result of the downtrend from the historical highs, then its correct psychological interpretation was anxiety.

NUPL and 3 Assumptions on the Way to Bitcoin ATH

So, if we make a few assumptions based on the above chart, we can try to use NUPL to predict the future development of the Bitcoin market. Interestingly, we can both try to predict how much longer the early bull market phase will last and estimate when Bitcoin will reach the peak of the current cycle.

First, we assume that the Bitcoin market has left the area of fear for good, defined by the NUPL range between 0-0.25. However, if deep declines occur in the market, the NUPL could return to the orange or even red area, as in 2020.

Then the Bitcoin accumulation hypothesis would be falsified, and the cryptocurrency market would experience something like a double-bottom pattern.

Second, we assume that the current Bitcoin accumulation will be similar to previous ones and will last about 7 months (32 weeks). We arrive at this figure by taking the arithmetic average of all the previous three accumulation periods in the yellow NUPL area (30, 41, and 25 weeks, respectively – blue ranges).

Third, we assume that Bitcoin reaches the cycle’s peak about 12 months (51 weeks) after entering the late phase of the bull market. This agrees with the arithmetic average of previous cycles. BTC reached all-time highs in 46, 51, and 55 weeks after NUPL entered the green area of belief (green ranges).

Bitcoin Accumulation Will Last Another 6 Months

One can now try to extrapolate the obtained results to the current market situation. We assume that Bitcoin accumulation in the early bull market began in mid-June 2023.

Then the NUPL indicator bounced from the orange area of hope and entered the yellow area of optimism. It is worth recalling that if NUPL falls into the orange range again, our calculations will have to be done all over again.

However, if this does not happen, it can be assumed that Bitcoin accumulation has been going on for about 7 weeks. Subtracting this value from the averaged accumulation time (32 weeks), we get a period of about 6 months. So the early bull market should last until the end of January 2024.

Then we need to add the average duration of the late bull market to this date, which is about 12 months. This gives us the second half of January 2025 as the peak of this cycle (green line).

Criticism and Optimism

It should be noted that the above calculations deviate from the canonical interpretation of Bitcoin 4-year cycle, which is based on a halving event. The main difference is that a late bull market usually begins only after halving. Currently, it is projected to occur in April 2024.

In addition, the period of time that would elapse between the market’s November 2022 macro bottom and the start of the late bull market would be considerably shorter than the previous two cycles.

In the standard interpretation, the accumulation after the market bottom and the early stage of the bull market last about 2 years. By contrast, according to NUPL-based calculations, it would be only 14 months.

Despite these differences and doubts around some of the assumptions made above, the NUPL indicator gives us interesting insights into the cryptocurrency market.

Even if the exact calculation is only estimate, the ongoing Bitcoin accumulation makes investors increasingly optimistic.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-spiral-cycles-recurring-fractals/

The narrative of Bitcoin (BTC) cycles will continue to recur as long as halving has an impact on the BTC price, miner activity and investor psychology. In the author’s view of BTC cycles, a well-known analyst has published an up-to-date version of a spiral chart that perfectly shows the recurring phases of 4-year cycles.

Bitcoin cycles involve both the BTC price and on-chain data of short-term investors and their psychology. The repeating fractals once again falsify the expectations of crypto newbies that “this time is different.”

3 Phases of Each Bitcoin Cycle

Well-known analyst @theratinalroot tweeted an updated version of his spiral chart of Bitcoin yesterday. He briefly described the rather complex fractal structure:

“The 4-year cycle is on point! Each cycle consists of 3 phases.”

The idea behind this innovative graphical representation of the historical price of BTC is the Bitcoin cycles hypothesis. This narrative is well known in the cryptocurrency market and is based on a halving event that occurs approximately once every 4 years.

However, according to the analyst, each of Bitcoin’s three historical cycles to date has played out within 3 recurring phases. Interestingly, @theratinalroot doesn’t take into account the first genesis cycle, because, he says, “isn’t as interesting because it’s a bit of an outlier, as Bitcoin didn’t have price data during its first year.” Therefore, the 3 phases of each 4-year Bitcoin cycle are as follows:

1. The mature bull market, which lasts for about 1 year. It is historically initiated by the BTC halving. On the chart, this is the first quarter (top right). This phase ends with a new Bitcoin all-time high (ATH). At the same time, he emphasizes that sometimes it can be a double top (as in 2013 and 2021) and sometimes a single top (as in 2017 and potentially 2025).
2. The bear market, which lasts for about 1 year. It follows euphoria and a “blow-off top” of the BTC price. This is the second quarter of the chart. On average, during this phase of the cycle, Bitcoin loses 80% of its value, and the entire downtrend ends with 2 or 3 capitulation events. The vast majority of investors lose hope here.
3. The early bull market, which lasts for about 2 years. This is the left half of the chart. After sharp declines and reaching a macro price bottom, there is a long phase of accumulation and a slow increase in the price of BTC. During this period, bitcoin generally goes up, but it does so very slowly with numerous corrections.

Bitcoin’s Spiral Fractals

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently in the third phase of its cycle. Which has been running roughly since early 2023. It will last at least until the next halving. Which, according to the latest data from BuyBitcoinWorldwide, is expected on April 17, 2024.

An interesting graphical representation of the above chart highlights the fractal similarities between Bitcoin cycles. These relate not only to the timing and regularity of the repeating phases, but also to the profits and psychology of crypto market investors.

First of all, @theratinalroot colored the chart with a scale from intense green to strong red. The former suggest market participants’ maximum profits, while the latter suggest their maximum losses. The data is based on the on-chain STH Cost Basis Z-Score indicator, which roughly describes the state of short-term investments of market participants. Their behavior best reflects the repeated patterns of BTC price action.

Then the analyst also published a slightly different version of his chart. In which he assigns successive phases of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles to stages of investor psychology. These express the dominant emotions that surround market participants at each stage of the cycle.

Thus, it turns out that the fractal similarity between Bitcoin cycles occurs not only with regard to the price of the largest cryptocurrency. But also – and perhaps most importantly – the psychology of market participants. Spiral cycles describe the halving-dictated changes in the BTC price just as well as they capture the prevailing emotions that overwhelm investors.

Naturally, the juxtaposition of price action and investor psychology is nothing revelatory. As it has been operating in traditional financial markets for decades.

Also, the psychological phases contained in the spiral chart of BTC coincide with those highlighted in the classic Wall Street Cheat Sheet: Psychology of Market Cycle. However, the key difference is that in mature traditional asset markets. Cycles are much harder to identify and usually last much longer than 4 years.

BTC Price Prediction: $60,000 by the End of 2024

The analyst concludes his discussion with a Bitcoin price prediction by the end of 2024. In his opinion, during the next 1.5 years, the BTC price is likely to return to the ATH area of $69,000. He points out that so far the early stage of the bull market has led to a recovery of about 30% of the loss against the ATH – from $15,000 to $30,000. In contrast, the remaining 70% should be made up by the end of 2024.

At the same time, he predicts that around halving in April 2024, the price of BTC will oscillate around $40,000. Further, it should hover in the $50,000 – $60,000 range in the second half of 2024.

Despite these moderately bullish BTC price predictions, the analyst recommends caution and reminds of events that could lead to deviations from the usual rhythm of Bitcoin cycles. According to him, the early approval of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin EFT could accelerate the upward phase.

On the other hand, he refers to still lingering fears of a global recession. If one were to occur, it would certainly affect the cycle of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. However, the consequences would be difficult to predict:

“As there is no history of Bitcoin being in a recession, it’s difficult to predict how it exactly will respond. If it remains correlated to the S&P 500, a recession might temporarily cause turmoil.”

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-best-worst-days-each-year/

Bitcoin (BTC), like most cryptocurrencies, has been subject to high volatility since its inception. It is because of its potentially high ROI that it has earned a reputation as a great investment. At the same time, it remains a risk-on asset, as it regularly loses 75-85% of its value during cyclical bear markets.

Data released yesterday by @ecoinometrics provides new insights into Bitcoin volatility. Contrary to popular perceptions, BTC volatility is as much for bulls as it is for bears. Figuratively, this shows that Bitcoin is symmetrical, with its best and worst days usually balancing each other out.

Bitcoin and Its Symmetrical Volatility

A chart published on Twitter shows Bitcoin’s 10 best and worst trading days of each year since 2013. The horizontal scale ranges from -40% to +40% of daily profits or losses. The vertical scale, on the other hand, is consecutive years ordered from the bottom up.

The blue dots mark the days when Bitcoin generated the lowest profits, i.e. experienced the largest daily decline. The further the dot is to the left, the deeper the decline was. Red dots, on the other hand, represent the days in which Bitcoin made the most profits, i.e. increased the most on a daily basis. Naturally, the further to the right, the greater the profits were.

The first thing that catches the eye, after looking at the chart, is its symmetrical shape. It somewhat resembles the shape of a Christmas tree or a Coca-Cola bottle with a wide bottom. The obvious interpretation of such a distribution of points is diminishing volatility. This applies to both potential profits and losses.

In general, in each successive year the range of deviations from the median of 0% is smaller. However, this is not a monotonic decline, as there are sometimes years that are more volatile than previous years.

A positive example of increased returns can be seen in 2017, in which the red dots crossed the +20% mark several times. This did not happen once in 2014-2016. In contrast, a negative example is 2022, where the negative volatility was higher than for the entire 2019-2021 period.

Of course, both 2017 and 2022 are not coincidental. They remain closely linked to Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycles. 2017 was the second exponential part of the bull market, which led to the historic all-time high (ATH) of nearly $20,000. In contrast, 2022 was the latest cryptocurrency winter. It was the worst since 2018 and led BTC to drop 77%.

Local Volatility vs. Global Symmetry

Despite these local imbalances, the entire chart of Bitcoin’s 10 best and worst days of the past 10 years remains roughly symmetrical. This leads to two main conclusions:

Bitcoin remains an attractive asset for traders due to its equally high volatility for long (upside) and short (downside) positions.

BTC volatility decreases over time as the market capitalization becomes larger. More and more capital is required to move the market, so over time the Bitcoin market will likely resemble traditional financial markets.

The latter conclusion is well illustrated by Bitcoin’s long-term chart on a logarithmic scale and the associated Historical Volatility (HV) indicator. Past cycles have most often been characterized by maximum volatility during the end of a bull market and high volatility during the end of a bear market.

Despite this, the blue HV chart is in a clear downtrend. Its increasingly lower peaks are following the descending resistance line (black). This suggests that despite the still ongoing 4-year halving cycle, BTC volatility is declining.

Extreme Values and a Black Swan

The declining volatility can be seen by simply comparing the volatility from the first years of Bitcon’s listing with the current one. In the chart by @ecoinometrics, the Christmas tree shape suggests that the more mature BTC is as an asset, the lower volatility is to be expected.

For example, 9 of the top 10 days in 2013 produced returns of >20%. However, during the 2017 bull market, these were only 3 out of 10 days. Since then – that is, for 5.5 years – no trading day has led to 20% Bitcoin returns.

The same is true of the worst days. Here, since 2015, no trading day has led to a drop of more than -20%. The only exception remains the black swan of March 2020, when Bitcoin – like many other traditional assets – experienced a deep decline of almost 40%.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-supply-long-term-holders-peaking/

Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. The current level of BTC supply in the hands of long-term holders is approaching its all-time high set in 2015. On-chain data shows a record pace at which investors withdraw their coins and move them to cold wallets.

Historically, such situations have occurred at the bottom of cryptocurrency macrocycles. Therefore, the high level of Bitcoin supply in the hands of LTH and the upcoming BTC halving could become catalysts for a new crypto bull market.

Bitcoin Supply vs. Price

Bitcoin supply (orange line) is determined by a mathematical algorithm that drives the largest cryptocurrency to the amount of 21 million BTC that can ever be mined. New BTCs are awarded to miners for solving a mathematical task to validate the next block of the network chain.

However, the supply of Bitcoin is growing at a decreasing rate, which is regulated by the so-called halving (dashed line). Roughly every four years, the reward given to BTC miners is reduced by half. In turn, this makes fewer and fewer newly mined coins available on the market.

The result of this and the simple economics of supply and demand is that the price of the largest cryptocurrency increases over time (black curve). In short, the limited supply and decreasing issuance of new coins increase Bitcoin’s scarcity.

This scarcity, combined with cryptographic security, durability, and transparency – to name just the most important attributes of the Bitcoin network – increases the price investors are willing to pay for this digital asset.

It is worth adding that the above Bitcoin supply chart is often modified by coins that are considered lost. By definition, lost coins have not moved for at least 7 years.

Then we get a metric of adjusted circulating supply, which takes into account lost coins. As seen below, the amount of BTC in circulation has remained relatively constant at around 15 million BTC since the beginning of 2016. This is despite the fact that almost 19.5 million BTC has been mined so far. Therefore, as many as 4.5 million coins are considered lost.

Bitcoin Supply in the Hands of Hodlers

Long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin are entities holding their coins for at least 155 days. They are also sometimes referred to as hodlers, as they follow a simple investment strategy called HODL.

Short-term holders (STH), on the other hand, keep their coins for less than 155 days, after which they transfer them to another address or sell them. The detailed definition still includes a 10-day transition period between the two types of holders.

With on-chain data, it is possible to see how much Bitcoin supply is in the hands of LTHs at any given time. The metric of Long-Term Holder Supply provides such a chart.

First of all, we can see that the supply in the hands of LTHs has been steadily increasing and, at least since August 2022, has been consistently recording new all-time highs (ATH). The current metric suggests that 14.532 million BTC is held long-term. Naturally, it also partly takes into account lost coins.

However, the most interesting feature of this metric is its inverse correlation with the price of BTC. Well, on a large scale, we observe that periods of dramatically declining Bitcoin supply in LTH hands (green) corresponded with macro peaks in the BTC price (blue).

In contrast, the reverse dependence is no longer so clear. The macro bottom in the BTC price has not always been the same as the peak in Long-Term Holder Supply.

However, it has always been the case that bear markets have led to increased assets held long-term. Moreover, this trend often continued throughout the accumulation phase and even in the first months of a new bull market.

Returning to 2015 Peaks

The last sharp decline in Bitcoin supply in LTH hands occurred between October 2020 and April 2021. That’s when the BTC price rocketed out of the $11,000 area and recorded a historic ATH of $64,500.

Interestingly, when the price of BTC set the current ATH of $69,000 six months later, supply in the hands of LTH was already at new highs. In hindsight, this could have been read as an early signal of an impending bear market. Since then, Bitcon’s long-term supply has been rising.

Well-known cryptocurrency market analyst @therationalroot tweeted a chart of Bitcoin supply in the hands of LTH relative to the total available supply. He noted that the current percentage of long-term supply stands at 73.5% and is approaching the historic high of 2015.

Interestingly, neither the bear market of 2018, the COVID-19 crash of 2020, nor even the bottom of the 2022 downtrend led to such a high supply of LTH as we are seeing now. According to the analyst, this is indicative of Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity.

What’s more, it indicates the high confidence investors have in the largest digital asset. On the other hand, when a new wave of short-term holders wants to acquire Bitcoin, hodlers will reduce their holdings. Then the price of BTC will be in the intense expansion phase of the future bull market.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-golden-cross-weekly-price-analysis/

Bitcoin is once again close to writing a new history. On the weekly chart of the largest cryptocurrency, a golden cross is approaching – an event that has never happened before. If the long-term moving averages complete a bullish cross, it will be another confirmation of the beginning of a new bull market for cryptocurrencies.

Back in February of this year, the first-ever death cross appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. The event was unprecedented, as no bear market had ever led to such a situation before. However, a reverse intersection is approaching – a golden cross that could spark a long-term uptrend.

The First Golden Cross in Bitcoin History

The golden cross is a basic signal of technical analysis. The classic golden cross and death cross are determined on different time frames by the interaction of two long-term 50-period and 200-period moving averages.

Naturally, in the case of the weekly chart, the 50-week moving average (50W MA, orange) and the 200-week moving average (200W MA, blue) are taken into account. It is worth adding that the higher the interval, the more significant the signal is for the long-term price action of the asset.

From the beginning of BTC trading, it has been a strongly rising asset its 50W MA never fell below the 200W MA. The first death cross in BTC history only appeared at the beginning of this year (red circle).

The reason for it was that BTC price action weakened strongly throughout 2022 and fell 77% against the November 2021 ATH.

Interestingly, in the previous bear markets of 2014 and 2018, the drop in Bitcoin price from the historical ATHs was deeper – 86% and 84%, respectively.

However, a death cross did not follow those periods because the earlier bull markets generated much larger increases. This caused a much greater distance between the 50W MA and the 200W MA, so the former “didn’t manage” to fall below the latter.

Is the Worst Over?

Looking at the above chart from a slightly different perspective, there is an additional argument for starting a new bull market for cryptocurrencies. It comes from the movement of the 50W MA itself in relation to the historical BTC price action.

So far, four moments can be identified where the 50W MA reversed its direction after long-term declines and began to rise (green arrows). These occurred in July 2012, November 2015, and May 2019. The fourth bullish bounce of this moving average occurred last month.

We notice a certain regularity if we now juxtapose these events with BTC trading history. Namely, whenever the 50W MA initiated a bounce, the bear market was already over, and Bitcoin had already reached a macro bottom (red circles).

If this rule also holds for the current cycle, the November 2022 FTX crash and the BTC price at $15,600 would mark the end of long-term declines. Therefore, the 50W MA bounce is another argument for starting a new bull market for the entire cryptocurrency sector.

When Will the Golden Cross for BTC Occur?

If a long-term bull market has indeed begun, then a golden cross on Bitcoin weekly chart is only a matter of time. Current data allows us to make some guesses about when this bullish event might occur.

The first-ever weekly death cross occurred on February 13, 2023. The descending 50W MA bearishly crossed the 200W MA. However, as a result of the rise in the BTC price since the beginning of this year, just 14 weeks later, the 50W MA bounced back. On May 22, it resumed its upward trajectory.

If we assume that the golden cross will follow the same 14-week period, we can expect this event on August 28. Of course, the slope of the 50W MA and the pace of its eventual return above the 200W MA will also depend on the future price action of BTC.

However, suppose the behavior of the 50W MA exhibits historical similarity to the previous 3 cycles. In that case, the end of the summer will see the first golden cross in Bitcoin trading history on a weekly chart.

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https://beincrypto.com/btc-price-breaks-support-level-upside-remains/

The declines in the broad cryptocurrency market continue. This week, Bitcoin generated more than a 3% bearish candle and reached long-term support in the $25,100 area.

This level is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the uptrend of the past 6 months. If Bitcoin takes advantage of the existing support areas and breaks out of the bullish pattern of the descending parallel channel, the uptrend could find a continuation.

Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain Its Uptrend

Yesterday, Bitcoin fell more than 3% and closed at an important support level of $25,100 (green area). It is in confluence with the 0.382 Fib level, measuring for the entire upward move since January 2023. This Fib level is the most common target for healthy corrections in a strong uptrend or downtrend.

However, the current price action continues to decline, and BTC is losing this support. If today’s move does not turn out to be just a deviation, the ongoing decline may not be a correction. On the contrary, it could lead to the end of the uptrend, which has been in place since early 2023.

However, if Bitcoin were able to regain the $25,100 level quickly, it would be a bullish signal, and the uptrend would remain intact. A bounce to at least the $27,400 area would then be possible. This is both the 0.236 Fib retracement level and the upper edge of the descending parallel channel, where the BTC price has been trading since mid-April.

In addition, yesterday’s decline led to the loss of the median of this channel (blue dashed). In such a situation, the natural target is the lower edge of the channel, which is currently descending in the vicinity of $23,700. This level is in strong confluence with the 0.5 Fib retracement and the 200-day moving average (200D MA, blue).

If this level is lost, the next important support is located at $21,450. This is the 0.618 Fib retracement and an important horizontal resistance/support area.

Trading Volume Signals End of Compression Phase

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin’s trading volume has been steadily declining since November 2022 and the crash of the FTX exchange. Decreasing volume signals a decline in the volatility of an asset and indicates a prolonged compression phase.

Such a period is usually followed by a sharp increase in trading volume and a strong move up or down. The current pattern already looks very mature and ready to move in the coming weeks (blue circle).

Long-Term RSI May Provide Support

Daily technical indicators give bearish signals. The Relative Strength Index is below 50 and dropping.

Using the RSI as a momentum indicator, traders can determine whether the market is overbought or oversold. Moreover, they decide whether to accumulate or sell assets with this metric. If the RSI reading exceeds 50 and the trend is upward, the bulls have the advantage. The opposite happens when the reading is below 50.

However, the long-term RSI chart seems to be following an ascending support line that goes back to June 2022 (black). Its last 3 touches (blue circles) marked lows in the Bitcoin market (blue arrows) and were buying signals.

Currently, the line is just above oversold territory, near 30. The RSI would have to fall another 5 points to reach this value. Thus, although the BTC price still has downside potential, support on the RSI chart could initiate a bounce and a resumption of the uptrend.

The MACD has also been declining since mid-April. The histogram of the indicator generates increasingly long red candles, confirming the downward trend (orange circle). If a potential bounce were to occur, one of the first signals would be a shorter, pale red MACD bar.

BTC Price Prediction: Will Bullish Divergence Lead to a Bounce?

The short-term 4-hour chart provides a slightly more bullish BTC price prediction. First of all, Bitcoin is in a repeatedly confirmed pattern of a descending parallel channel. This pattern is bullish and, in most cases, leads to an upward breakout.

However, for this to be possible, the BTC price must regain the channel median at $25,450 and the horizontal support area S1. Only then will it be possible to try to regain the weekly pivot (P) at $26,200 and a possible move to the upper edge of the channel?

In addition, we see a developing bullish divergence (green) on the 4-hour RSI. The BTC price has recorded a lower low, while the RSI chart is in the process of forming a yet unconfirmed higher low. If the divergence is confirmed, trying to recover lost support levels will be possible.

Moreover, the MACD also appears to be making an attempt to reverse the short-term trend. The histogram has generated the first pale-red bar and is attempting to turn back upward.

However, if these efforts fail, the nearest support area remains at the S3 level, near $24,000. It stands in confluence with the lower edge of the descending parallel channel.

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https://beincrypto.com/ltc-price-uptrend-key-factors/

Despite the bearish altcoin market and steeper declines, Litecoin (LTC) could sustain its long-term uptrend. For this to happen, the LTC price must validate the symmetrical triangle formation and initiate a bounce.

Breaking through the long-term resistance area in the $100 to105 range would indicate a strong signal of the start of a new bull market.

However, losing the key support level at $65 would mean a breakdown of the upward structure and a possible return to the June 2022 lows.

Litecoin Uptrend Struggles to Hold

The weekly chart shows that Litecoin has been rising since hitting a low of $40.30 in June 2022. Since then, a year-long period of accumulation has begun, which seems to be forming the basis for a new uptrend.

First, the LTC price has generated three higher highs (HH) and three higher lows (HL). If the price does not fall below the previous low of $65, the ongoing decline could be the fourth higher low in what has the potential to begin a long-term uptrend.

On the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range) chart, the $65 level is particularly important and represents long-term support (red line). The VPVR indicator is used for volume trading and proves effective for trading large capitalization assets.

On the other hand, the Litecoin uptrend has already been rejected three times from the long-term resistance area in the $100 to105 range (red rectangle).

Moreover, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken down from the rising support line (black), which has been in place since the June 2022 lows. Moreover, it is below 50, which is a signal of a bearish trend.

Finally, the trading volume appears to have been steadily declining since the ATH and subsequent May 2021 low. The pattern of declining volume (blue line) appears to be maturing, suggesting that a sharp impulsive move is imminent.

The volume signature, however, remains neutral on the direction of the expected move.

LTC Price in a Symmetrical Triangle

Technical analysis from the daily interval confirms the mixed signals from the weekly. First of all, the LTC price seems to be in a neutral symmetrical triangle formation. The probability of breakout and breakdown from such a formation is similar.

However, in favor of a bearish interpretation is the fact that Litecoin is currently trading at the lower edge of this formation and even seems to be losing it.

If a decline occurs, holding the aforementioned $65 level (green line) to sustain the uptrend will be crucial. It has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in the past.

On the other hand, the trading volume signature supports a bullish interpretation. Analyzing the daily trading volume since May 2022, we see that on June 10, 2023, Litecoin generated the fourth-largest red candle.

All previous such large red candles signaled capitulation and a market bottom (blue arrows).

Thus, if Litecoin maintains the validity of the symmetrical triangle formation, the ongoing move may just be a correction after the increases from earlier this year.

This is the interpretation suggested by cryptocurrency market analyst @CryptoTony__, who posted his chart on Twitter. According to him, once both edges of the formation are re-confirmed, the LTC price may break out to the upside.

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