Share:

• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said China will benefit from the enforcement of restrictive US crypto policies. 
• The China coin narrative gains traction as Armstrong highlights Hong Kong emergence as a global crypto hub. 
• Conflux, NEO, TRON, Alchemy Pay and Sandbox are likely to benefit from China inflows.

Brian Armstrong, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency platform Coinbase, shared his thoughts on restrictive US crypto policies in an opinion editorial published by Market Watch on Tuesday. Armstrong said Hong Kong’s emergence as a global crypto hub is in line with the China coin narrative. 

Also read: Pro-XRP attorney predicts the altcoin’s rally to $2 ahead of SEC vs. Ripple verdict

Coinbase CEO slams US crypto policies

Armstrong criticized the restrictive cryptocurrency policies in  the US and shed light on the big picture in crypto. In the article, he  commented on the importance of America’s technology leadership for the nation’s national security.

Failing to see that crypto is about much more than individual transactions risks America’s time-honored role as the global financial leader and an innovation hub

The Coinbase CEO identified two Chinese technology giants, Alipay and Tencent, as well as the launch of the Digital Yuan as key indicators of the brewing China coin narrative. Crypto trading will be available for retail traders in Hong Kong from June 1 and the special administrative region is set to emerge as a global crypto hub. 

According to Armstrong, these events support the thesis that China has a strategy to leverage financial technology to project its national interests. 

Which cryptocurrencies could benefit from the China coin and Hong Kong narrative?

TheWignus (@TheWignus), a crypto analyst with 2.4 million followers on Twitter, numbered some  cryptocurrencies that are likely to benefit from the China coin and Hong Kong narrative. The expert has divided these assets into separate categories based on their utility and explained how they are relevant to the China coin narrative. 

China and Hong Kong narrative coins of 2023, according to @TheWignus 

Conflux (CFX), Neo (NEO), Tron (TRX), Alchemy Pay (ACH), Sandbox (SAND) or VeChain (VET) are among the leading cryptocurrencies that rank in the list. These assets could benefit from the China coin narrative as they are related to cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun, Chinese infrastructure, or supply chain.

Over the past two weeks, as the Hong Kong narrative gained popularity among crypto market participants, NEO price yielded 10% gains, TRON price rallied 7% while SAND and ACH prices climbed nearly 2%. The assets listed by TheWignus are likely to yield gains for holders over the next week as Hong Kong opens the door to retail crypto trade. 

Share:

• Over $1 billion worth of Ethereum has been withdrawn from exchange wallets over the past three weeks.
• ETH holders have consistently added Ether between May 8 and May 31.
• Whales have shed their Ethereum holdings and redistributed to retail traders in May, a retail-driven ETH price recovery is likely.

Ethereum holdings in exchange wallets declined by $1.04 billion between May 8 and May 31. Interestingly, while large wallet investors have shed their Ether holdings, the altcoin got redistributed to addresses with less than 1 ETH.

Also read: China coin narrative in play as Coinbase CEO warns of restrictive US crypto policies

Ethereum holdings redistributed from whales to retail traders

During the recent pullback in ETH price, an interesting phenomenon occurred. While Ethereum supply on exchanges declined by $1.04 billion between May 8 and 31, Ether holdings of large wallet investors dropped. 

Whales shed their Ethereum holdings and retail traders with a balance of (0.001 Ether to 1 Ether) scooped up more ETH throughout May. Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, ETH holders in four segments have increased their holdings of the altcoin in the past three weeks. 

Ethereum holdings across four segments

The following chart shows the decline in ETH supply on exchanges:

Ethereum supply on exchanges 

ETH supply dropped from 12.79 million on May 8 to 12.23 million as of Wednesday. Nearly $1.04 billion in Ether was pulled out of exchanges. 

It is important to note that the decline in Ether supply on exchanges, alongside retail accumulation, signals a shift in the catalyst driving ETH price rally. Typically, whale accumulation and activity catalyze recovery in the altcoin. During this cycle, retail traders have the opportunity to fuel demand for the largest altcoin in the crypto ecosystem and aid its recovery. 

At press time, Ethereum is exchanging hands at $1,868.82, up 4% over the past month. 

Share:

• Cardano price started its recovery from the recent pullback to $0.35.
• Cardano developmental activity has ranked higher than Ethereum over the past 30 days.
• IOG announced the launch of a new language designed for smart contracts on the ADA network.

Cardano price has started its recovery from the drop to $0.35 last Friday. The Ethereum-killer project is competing with the largest altcoin for dominance in market share. Both Cardano and Ethereum, however, have yielded losses for holders in the last 24 hours. 

Also read: Cardano price rallies with surge in DEX volume and new meme coin launch

These bullish catalysts could drive Cardano price recovery

Cardano is the fourth largest altcoin by market capitalization, after Ethereum, BNB and XRP. ADA blockchain is considered an Ethereum-alternative, and Cardano competes with Ethereum for market share in the smart-contract space. 

Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker, the development activity on Cardano has recently surpassed that of Ethereum and other altcoin competitors like Cosmos, Chainlink and Decentraland.

Blockchain development activity 

Higher development activity is typically associated with a bullish thesis for the asset. The rising development activity on the Cardano blockchain could, therefore, fuel a recovery in the altcoin’s price. 

ADA price has climbed to $0.3745 (at press time) from $0.35 on Friday. The altcoin is on a path to recouping its losses from the past week. 

Moreover, the launch of Marlowe, a new programming language for smart contracts was launched on the Cardano blockchain on Tuesday. The developers behind the Cardano blockchain, Input Output Global (IOG), believe that the rollout of Marlowe will offer an additional layer of security and confidence to smart contracts developed on the ADA network. 

Cardano price recovery is fueled by the two developmental updates. 

What to expect from Cardano price?

Cardano price started an upward trend in the beginning of 2023. The altcoin hit a peak of $0.4625 in April, and 

ADA/USD one-day price chart 

Cardano price is tackling resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of ADA’s rise from 2023 lows to its April peak of $0.4625. ADA could face immediate resistance at $0.3985 and $0.4168, two key levels that have acted as resistance since Cardano’s pullback from the April peak. 

A drop to support at $0.3579 is likely to invalidate the bullish thesis for Cardano.

Share:

• Bitcoin network’s large wallet investors accumulated BTC throughout May. 
• BTC supply on exchanges nosedived from 1.33 million to 1.29 million since the beginning of May. 
• While BTC is headed towards its first monthly loss of 2023, whales could fuel a recovery in the asset. 

Bitcoin price is inching towards the first monthly loss of 2023. At press time, BTC price is 4.4% below $29,233, its price on May 1. If BTC fails to regain lost ground, the asset is in for its first monthly loss of the year. 

Bitcoin network’s large wallet investors could potentially fuel a recovery in BTC price before it charts its first negative month in 2023.

Also read: Bitcoin price retreats as US core PCE inflation comes hotter than expected

Bitcoin whale accumulation and declining exchange supply

Typically, accumulation by large wallet investors and a decline in the supply of the asset across cryptocurrency exchanges are both considered bullish signs for BTC price. Throughout May, whales across three segments continued scooping up Bitcoin tokens and the supply on exchanges declined by nearly 3%. 

Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, whales picked up the pace of their accumulation on May 24. 

BTC whale accumulation 

Bitcoin supply on exchanges 

The declining supply implies easing selling pressure on the asset across cryptocurrency exchange platforms. This leaves room for recovery in BTC ahead of the monthly close. 

While Bitcoin is headed for its first monthly decline, whales are positioning themselves to push BTC price higher. 

Delta based trading systems analysts at Skew (@52kskew) on Twitter identified how whales are influencing Bitcoin price. Whales are bidding and using the market positioning to push holding low-time frame Exponential Moving Averages (LTF EMAs) higher. 

Traders with both short and long positions in Bitcoin are apeing into whale movements. 

Whales are, therefore, in a position to influence retail traders with their movements and fuel a recovery in Bitcoin, acting as a bullish catalyst for BTC price.

Share:

• Cardano price climbed nearly 8% since Friday alongside a spike in transaction volumes of decentralized exchanges. 
• Cardano-based DEX Minswap’s transaction volume grew from $10 million to $72 million from May 1 to 30.
• The launch of SNEK and BANK meme coins contributed to the rising Cardano network activity. 

Cardano-based decentralized exchange Minswap registered a large spike in transaction volume since the beginning of May. Between May 1 and 30, transaction volume surged from $10 million to $72 million. 

The launch of two meme coins SNEK and BANK on the Cardano blockchain contributed to the rise in network activity on the Ethereum-killer chain. 

Also read: Shiba Inu eyes recovery as holders pull more than 44 trillion tokens off exchanges

Cardano-based DEXes and meme coins fuel ADA price rally

The Cardano blockchain registered a rise in its transaction volume in May. Transaction volume on Minswap, the largest DEX on the Ethereum-killer blockchain, climbed from $10 million at the beginning of May to $72 million on Tuesday. 

Minswap transaction volume 

Minswap is currently the largest DEX on the Cardano blockchain by Total Value Locked (TVL). The exchange holds upwards of $175 million worth of assets. A significant spike in activity on Minswap, therefore, influences the Cardano blockchain. 

Launch of meme coins on Cardano and impact on ADA

SNEK, a meme coin with a 24-hour trade volume of $8 million, was launched on Cardano-based DEXes Sundaeswap and Minswap. Since its launch, SNEK price climbed 268.71%. Market participants engaged in trading SNEK contributed to the rise in transaction volume on Minswap. 

Since their launch, both SNEK and BANK prices have climbed, with a combined market capitalization of $80 million as of Tuesday. 

The flurry of activity from DEX transactions and meme coin launches fueled a rally in Cardano. The Ethereum-killer token climbed from $0.3535 on Friday to $0.38 at press time, an increase of 7.5%. 

The Ethereum alternative is likely to continue rallying higher with the rising popularity of DEXes and meme coin launches on their platforms.

Share:

• XRP network’s address activity climbed to the second-highest level in the altcoin’s history. 
• XRP Ledger’s native token has mildly decoupled from other altcoins. 
• In March, the largest on-chain activity spike in XRP led to a 45% price rally. 

XRP Ledger’s native token XRP registered an increase in address activity on Monday, when more than 490,000 addresses interacted on the network, signaling an impending price rally. 

In the past, the largest spike in XRP address activity resulted in a 45% price rally in the next ten days. It remains to be seen how the altcoin’s price will react to the recent on-chain activity. XRP trades at $0.50 at the time of writing, up 4.2% in the last 24 hours. 

Also read: Pro-XRP attorney predicts the altcoin’s rally to $2 ahead of SEC vs. Ripple verdict

XRP network records high level of address activity 

XRP network recorded its second largest address activity spike of all time in the past two days, according to data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment. On March 18, XRP saw its  highest address activity ever, and this was followed by a 45% rally in XRP price within the next ten days. 

Typically, high address activity is associated with rising demand for the asset among market participants. 

XRP address activity 

The above chart shows the two large activity spikes against the altcoin’s price. 

Moreover, XRP has mildly decoupled from other altcoins in the crypto ecosystem, data from Santiment shows. The crypto intelligence tracker has recorded a 4% decoupling in XRP, supporting  the thesis of an upcoming price rally. If history repeats itself, a scenario similar to March 18 could come into play.

Analyst is bullish on XRP price rally, predicts breakout 

A widely-followed technical analyst who identifies as CryptoFaibik on Twitter (@CryptoFaibik) has presented a bullish thesis for XRP price. The analyst predicts an influx of strong buying volume in XRP, with bulls ready to push the asset’s price past the two-year descending trendline resistance at $0.5003, resulting in a breakout. 

XRP/USDT three-day price chart

However, if XRP price fails to break out of the symmetrical triangle formation, the bullish thesis for the altcoin would be invalidated. 

Share:

• Shiba Inu supply on exchanges declined by nearly 45% between March and May.
• Around 44.5 trillion SHIB tokens were removed from exchange wallets, reducing the circulating supply of the meme coin.
• SHIB network activity marked on May 26 the highest increase in new addresses created on a daily basis.

The reserve of Shiba Inu tokens across cryptocurrency exchange platforms has consistently declined between March and May. SHIB holders have pulled 44.53 trillion tokens off exchanges, reducing the circulating supply and thus the selling pressure on the second-largest meme coin. 

Also read: Dogecoin retakes meme coin throne as Shiba Inu, Pepe mania fades

Shiba Inu reserves on exchanges decline

Dogecoin-killer Shiba Inu’s reserves across crypto trading platforms declined 33% between March and May. Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, there were 88.36 trillion SHIB tokens on crypto exchanges as of May 30, sharply down from the 132.89 trillion in March.

Shiba Inu supply on exchanges (represented by black line)

The chart shows the supply held by top addresses increased as exchange reserves declined. This implies that wallet investors and SHIB holders pulled the tokens off exchanges. These actions resulted in a decline in SHIB supply, easing off the selling pressure at a time when 65% of the wallet addresses holding Shiba Inu are underwater, meaning that they are sitting on unrealized losses. Shiba Inu price is $0.00000870 at the time of writing, meaning that 31% SHIB holders are profitable at the current price level. 

Shiba Inu holders sitting on unrealized losses (out of the money)

Moreover, there is an increase in Shiba Inu address activity on May 26. Rising address activity is likely to support a recovery in the meme coin’s price. 

According to Glassnode data, 2,538 new Shiba Inu wallet addresses were created that day. This metric marks the daily largest spike in new addresses in the past three months. 

Shiba Inu new addresses (plotted in red bars) against SHIB price (black line)

A decline in SHIB prices, coupled with less supply on exchanges and a large volume of new addresses created, are likely to act as a catalyst for the Dogecoin-killer price recovery in the short term.

Share:

• Dogecoin trade volume exceeded that of other meme coins for the first time in two months.
• Dogecoin network registered $1.6 billion in large volume transactions on May 28 as its price increased.
• Crypto analyst sets $1 bullish target for DOGE amidst long-term consolidation of the meme coin. 

Dogecoin (DOGE), a leading meme coin in the crypto ecosystem, has seen a spike in activity from large wallet investors, popularly known as whales. The uptick in activity and recent price increases has placed Dogecoin as the biggest meme coin by market capitalization for the first time in around two months, regaining a leading position after Shiba Inu and PEPE took the center stage for most of April and May.

Whale activity pushed large transaction volume to $1.06 billion on May 28, fueling a bullish sentiment among DOGE holders. While Shiba Inu and PEPE emerged as key competitors for Dogecoin in April and May, the two tokens have registered a decline in on-chain activity. 

Also read: Elon Musk warns traders against “betting the farm” on his favorite cryptocurrency Dogecoin

Around 40% of DOGE wallets turn profitable 

Trade volume is considered a key on-chain metric to assess the utility and dominance of a cryptocurrency. Dogecoin’s trade volume climbed to $231.95 million in the past 24-hour period, leaving competitors Shiba Inu and PEPE behind. Shiba Inu’s trade volume for the same period is half that of DOGE at around $113 million, while PEPE is at $98.29 million, according to data from CoinGecko 

Dogecoin’s dominance in terms of trade volume is driven by activity from whales. Large wallet addresses holding DOGE in their portfolio have consistently added more tokens to their holdings since April 3, according to data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment. 

Dogecoin accumulation by whales 

Whales across three different segments, holding between 1,000 to 1,000,000 Dogecoin, have gradually increased their purchases of the meme coin since April 3. The metric fuels a bullish thesis for the Shiba-Inu-themed asset. 

According to statistics from IntoTheBlock, at $0.0733 (DOGE price at the time of writing), more than 42% of wallet addresses holding Dogecoin are profitable. Still, 53.89% wallet addresses are “out of the money,” meaning they are sitting on unrealized losses. 

42.91% DOGE wallets are profitable at the current price of $0.0733

Could Dogecoin price reach $1? 

Large transactions in Dogecoin (USD)

The accumulation by whales, a spike in activity and large volume transactions have fueled a bullish thesis for Dogecoin price. Crypto expert and analyst @Jaydee_757 set a target of $1 for DOGE, in what he describes as an upcoming bull run.  

The expert argues that long-term consolidation precedes a rally in the meme coin. DOGE price spent over 730 days below the orange trendline in the chart below, so the analyst said that  a decisive breakout above the trendline is close. 

DOGE/USD one-month price chart

In the event of a breakout, DOGE price is likely to break into the target zone between $0.7718 and $1.5000.

Share:

• Galxe, Optimism and 1INCH have scheduled token unlocks this week totalling between 0.2% and 16% of their supply. 
• Previous token unlocks where over 1% of supply was unlocked have turned out to be sell-the-news or pump and dump events. 
• GAL, OP and 1INCH holders brace for volatility as token unlock draws closer.

Token unlocks are key events that result in volatility in asset prices. Galxe (GAL), Optimism (OP) and 1Inch Network (1INCH) tokens are scheduled for unlock this week, events that previously have hit prices when the unlocking amount of tokens exceeded 1% of the overall asset’s supply. 

Tokens worth around $350 million in GAL, OP and 1INCH are set to enter the circulating supply, with the capacity to move asset prices in the short term. 

Also read: Pro-XRP attorney predicts the altcoin’s rally to $2 ahead of SEC vs. Ripple verdict

GAL, OP and 1INCH token holders brace for unlock

Based on data from TokenUnlocks.app, the following three token unlocks (Cliff) are scheduled this week: GAL on May 30, OP on May 31 and 1INCH on June 2. 

Galxe is set to unlock 586,666.67 tokens worth $827,200, or 0.293% of the asset’s supply, on Tuesday. The unlocked tokens will be released to the project’s treasury. Based on data from Galxe’s community forum, there are currently nine community treasury signers that were elected by GAL holders. 

GAL token unlock 

GAL token unlock is less likely to usher volatility in Galxe prices for two reasons:

• Less than 1% of the token’s supply (0.293%) is being unlocked. 
• Treasury unlocks are less likely to be associated with pump and dump in token prices. 

Unlike GAL, Optimism is preparing for 3.6% of its supply to be unlocked on May 31, when 154,618,822.65 tokens worth $250,482,493 will be released. The unlocked tokens will be distributed among core contributors and investors. Core contributors of the project will receive 1.9%,  while investors will get 1.7%, respectively. 

The likelihood of a sell-off is higher in unlocks where investors receive tokens as they are more likely to offload their holdings. Moreover, 3.6% of OP token’s supply would enter circulation, increasing selling pressure on the asset. OP price has gained nearly 6% since Thursday, with the asset’s price climbing from $1.57 to $1.66.

OP token unlock

A rally in OP price ahead of the unlock is most likely associated with a “sell-the-news” event, where price rallies until the event but is followed by a sell-off and a correction after it. 

1INCH holders should prepare for mass volatility 

1INCH, the token of the decentralized aggregator of the same name, will unlock 249,807,669.19 1INCH worth $99,993,763, or 16.65% of the supply. The event lined up for June 2. 

1INCH token unlock

The entire 16.65% of unlocked supply will be distributed to team members, investors or venture capital firms. When a relatively large percentage of an asset’s supply is being unlocked and distributed to investors, there is a higher probability of a sell-off.

1INCH price climbed 5%, from $0.38 to $0.40, between Thursday and the time of writing, according to data from CoinGecko. A consistent increase in 1INCH price in the days leading up to the unlock event will most likely be followed by a sell-off. 1INCH holders need to brace for volatility in the coming week as the asset’s price continues its upward trajectory. 

Share:

• Attorney John Deaton says XRP price is on track to recover and set a target of $2. 
• Deaton and Ripple CTO David Schwartz say Hinman emails will likely  be made public soon irrespective of the verdict. 
• The documents are key to the defense of Ripple and other crypto entities like Coinbase that are subject to regulatory crackdown. 

The community of XRP token holders await a verdict in the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple. Three key aspects of the case could influence the verdict and subsequently XRP price: the emails from former director of the SEC’s division of corporate finance, Ripple’s fair notice defense and the consideration of whether sales are done in primary or secondary markets 

Ripple Chief Technology Officer (CTO) David Schwartz and XRP proponent attorney John Deaton shed light on one of the three key factors earlier today: the emails from the former Director of the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. These emails contain information on the SEC’s take on whether cryptocurrencies, specifically Ether, is a security or it isn’t.

These documents, popularly-known as the Hinman emails, are key to Ripple’s defense and they could help support the defense of other crypto entities targeted by the US financial regulator. 

Also read: Ripple CEO foresees ground-breaking victory for the payment giant in SEC lawsuit

The release of Hinman documents is likely imminent

William Hinman’s emails have emerged as a key factor in Ripple’s defense against the SEC’s allegations. In these documents, the former Director of the SEC’s division of Corporation Finance  sheds light on the regulator’s understanding of cryptocurrencies and whether assets like Ether are securities or non-securities. 

The US financial regulator filed motions to keep the Hinman documents under wraps, but  their release is imminent. Schwartz said that the documents will be released no matter  the verdict in the SEC vs. Ripple. 

XRP proponent attorney John Deaton seconded Schwartz’s opinion in a recent tweet. Deaton is bullish on the altcoin’s price and its recovery in the long-term.

The contents of the email are likely to provide useful insight and context for other crypto entities like Coinbase, that are also under regulatory crackdown. Deaton said that even if the SEC and Ripple reached an agreement to settle the lawsuit, the Hinman documents will be released and this is a positive development for the crypto ecosystem in the long-term. 

Share:

• Charles Hoskinson shared an update on the development of CIP-1694 network upgrade in a recent YouTube video. 
• Hoskinson said the proposal is likely to be rolled out in July, decentralizing ADA further and setting an example for competitors. 
• Cardano ranks among cryptos open for retail trade in Hong Kong, through OKX’s exchange platform, driving a bullish sentiment among holders. 

Cardano, one of Ethereum’s main competitors, is gearing up for further decentralization through its Improvement Proposal (CIP-1694),  which is expected to bring the  Ethereum-killer altcoin into a new era of governance with decentralization in its decision-making. 

Charles Hoskinson, founder and CEO of Cardano,  said in a recent YouTube video that CIP-1694 will further decentralize ADA, setting an example for other cryptocurrencies in the ecosystem. 

Also read: Hong Kong leaves the door open to Ethereum killers Cardano, Solana, AVAX, MATIC and LINK

A game-changing decentralization update

Hoskinson explained how CIP-1694  is set to begin a new era of decentralization on the ADA network. The proposal is still up for discussion and items included in the upgrade will change with inputs from the developing team. 

Hoskinson said decentralization is at the heart of the update. “Cardano is poised to emerge as an innovative and community-driven blockchain,” he said, adding that the improvement in the network  will set an example for competitors in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. 

The CIP-1694 upgrade will probably be released in July, Hoskinson said.  

The Ethereum-killer blockchain noted a consistent increase in its development activity and adoption throughout 2023. Hoskinson’s latest comments about Cardano’s update fueled a bullish thesis for ADA in the shortterm. Meanwhile, Cardano’s rollout for Hong Kong retail traders through crypto exchange OKX is another bullish catalyst that could drive a recovery in the altcoin’s price. 

Hong Kong opens to Cardano and other Ethereumalternatives

OKX exchange, a leading crypto trading platform, included Cardano alongside another fifteen digital assets that will be available  for Hong Kong’s retail traders. 

Through OKX, users will be able to buy, sell and convert through the mobile application, as well as engage in peer-to-peer trade or third-party providers like ApplePay, Visa and Mastercard. 

As the narrative of “Hong Kong-induced crypto rally” catches on, Cardano could witness an increase in adoption and on-chain activity as Hong Kong-based retail traders have access to ADA across exchange platforms. 

Share:

• Bitcoin price drops below $26,400 as US core PCE inflation rate came at 0.4% MoM and 4.7% YoY. 
• The core PCE numbers support the idea that inflation is sticky and risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could nosedive in 2023. 
• The April 2023 PCE release could keep the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. 

Bitcoin price declined in response to April’s US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which came higher than anticipated. The knee-jerk reaction from market participants increased the selling pressure on the asset, pushing it below $26,400. However, Bitcoin price has managed to return to pre-data levels minutes after the release.

Core PCE numbers support the thesis of “sticky inflation” and this increases the likelihood of further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. 

Also read: Breaking: US Core PCE inflation rises to 4.7% vs. 4.6% expected

Bitcoin price drops in response to US core PCE inflation numbers

As of last week, market participants anticipated rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The US core PCE inflation rate came in hotter than expected, at 0.4% MoM and 4.7% YoY, boosting expectations of a looming interest rate hike.

Bitcoin’s rally to its bullish target of $30,000 is likely to be delayed as the selling pressure on the asset climbs. The trading environment is not as conducive to risk assets as traders expected and tighter market conditions could further intensify selling in Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

Bitcoin price is currently in a downward trend, and the release of the US PCE inflation data has pushed the asset lower. BTC could find support at $26,348 and $26,220, two levels that acted as contention for the asset previously. 

BTC price is currently below its three long-term Exponential Moving Averages 10, 50 and 200-day at $26,446, $26,440, and $26,473 respectively. 

Bitcoin/ US Dollar 15-minute price chart 

Investors are likely to rotate capital to alternate sectors and head back to safe havens as there is no sign of inflation easing in the short term. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices observe gains, they are likely to be short-lived, before a longer, more significant drawdown puts risk assets to the test. 

Share:

• Brad Garlinghouse said in an interview that he is confident of a positive verdict in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit in the coming weeks. 
• Ripple CEO foresees a victory for the cross-border remittance firm after SEC motion to keep Hinman documents under wraps was rejected. 
• XRP community is awaiting a ruling, anticipating a positive outcome for Ripple. 

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is optimistic that the payment firm he leads will win the lawsuit brought by the US financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In a recent interview with the tech investment firm SCB 10X, Garlinghouse said that he anticipates a verdict in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit will come soon. 

Brad Garlinghouse bullish on a win in SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit

The CEO of the cross-border remittance firm mentioned the rejection by Judge Analisa Torres of the  SEC motion to keep key documents from the William Hinman, SEC former director of corporate finance, emails under wraps as a reason for optimism in the legal battle Ripple has with the US regulator on the nature of the XRP token. The SEC argues that XRP is a security, something that Garlinghouse and Ripple have been denying.

Also read: Here’s why US PCE could make or break Bitcoin price rally to $30,000

The Ripple CEO said in a Youtube interview within the Redefine Conference, that he views the SEC lawsuit “not just as an attack to Ripple, but as an attack to the whole crypto industry.” The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple has dragged on since December 2020, negatively influencing XRP price and sentiment among XRP holders in the crypto community. 

In the same interview, Garlinghouse told Mukaya (Tai) Panich, CEO of SCB 10X, that a court ruling in Ripple’s favor could set a precedent for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Garlinghouse reminded Jay Clayton, the previous SEC Chairman, resigned a day after suing Ripple about the legality of trading XRP as an unregistered security.

Briefly referencing recent events surrounding William Hinman, Garlinghouse reaffirmed his commitment to the long-drawn legal battle against the SEC’s allegations on Ripple. 

Why are Hinman documents crucial to Ripple’s defense?

William Hinman’s emails could shed light on the US financial regulator’s internal discussions and stand on “cryptocurrencies being treated as securities.” This has been under scrutiny for some time now and Judge Torres recently rejected the SEC’s motion to keep these documents under wraps. 

Hinman emails could support Ripple’s defense and help determine whether “fair notice” was given and what the SEC’s stance is on treating altcoins and crypto assets as securities.

What are the SEC’s allegations against Ripple?

In its 2020 lawsuit, the SEC alleged that Ripple and its executives illegally sold XRP tokens. XRP, the native token of the XRPLedger, was created in 2012 without being first registered as a security. 

The SEC argues that Ripple violated laws by conducting a $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering. 

Find out more here. 

Share:

• Bitcoin price rally in 2017 was largely driven by the ICO craze kicked off by Ethereum and a focus on altcoins. 
• While the 2023 YTD price increase is driven by institutions and large wallet investors, the 2017 cycle was largely supported by retail traders. 
• Profit rotation from altcoins drove a Bitcoin price rally in 2017, while DeFi-related assets take the center stage in 2023. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price cycles are structured around halving events that occur once roughly every four years, when rewards to miners are cut in half. The next BTC halving is expected in early 2024, and evaluating the differences between the 2015 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023 Bitcoin cycles can help traders define their expectations and prepare for the bull run.

Also read: Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC to surprise investors with 10% sell-off

Comparing two Bitcoin price cycles and whale activity

Bitcoin’s massive price rally in its 2015 to 2017 cycle set a record. However, the 2020 to 2023 cycle, which sent BTC to an all-time high of $69,044, has different catalysts and players. Still, the two Bitcoin price cycles followed a similar trajectory: it started with a bullish catalyst that was followed by capital rotation into BTC and massive participation from key players in the ecosystem. 

The two cycles, however, differed in terms of the role played by retail and institutional traders, as well as activity of large wallet investors, popularly known as whales, in the Bitcoin ecosystem. 

The 2015 to 2017 Bitcoin price cycle is considered one of the most iconic ones and can be summarized as follows:

• Initial Coin Offering (ICO) spree initiated by Ethereum.
• Altcoins, shitcoins and everything in between.
• Capital rotation into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price rally to $19,665 in mid-December 2017 was fueled by a massive participation of retail investors. 

Bitcoin whales pushed BTC price to its 2017 cycle top

Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, there was a consistent rise in the number of large wallet addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC. At the beginning of 2015, there were 13,903 addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin, 1,438 addresses containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC and 90 wallets holding between 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin.

All three segments of large wallet investors on Bitcoin witnessed a consistent increase from 2015 to the 2017 cycle top, after which there was a notable decline. Bitcoin price is represented by the green line. 

Bitcoin whale wallet address count through segments in the 2015 to 2017 cycle

As seen in the chart above, a large segment of retail traders accumulated BTC at a discount, before price started rallying in the second half of 2017. 

The 2015 to 2017 Bitcoin cycle in a glimpse

In 2017, Bitcoin acted as a gateway for market participants to jump in on the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) craze, where traders exchanged BTC for altcoins and the popularly known shitcoins, currencies with little to no discernible purpose and low value. This fueled a massive spike in demand for Bitcoin and acted as a catalyst for its price rally. 

The following chart from TradingView puts Bitcoin’s dominance into perspective and signals a massive decline after the 2017 bull run, at a moment when altcoins gained relevance and popularity. In the 2015 to 2017 cycle, capital rotated from altcoins to Bitcoin, giving the flagship cryptocurrency an edge over the others, but this changed at the cycle’s end. 

Market Capitalization Bitcoin dominance %

Bitcoin’s dominance fell from nearly 100% at the beginning of 2015 to just over 96% in 2017. 

How the 2020 to 2023 Bitcoin cycle is different 

The 2020 to 2023 BTC price cycle kicked off in a similar fashion as previous cycles. In this case, the bullish catalyst was Decentralized Finance, or DeFi, instead of the ICO craze.  . DeFi emerged as the biggest highlight of 2020, going from $700 million locked in contracts at the beginning of 2020 to as much as $15 billion by the end of that year.

Compound was one of the largest DeFi players as it allowed traders to deposit crypto into lending pools that facilitated borrowing. Lenders, in turn, earned an interest on the assets they deposited, fueling the DeFi spree that lasted all summer, with several copy cats and similar protocols offering the service to market participants. 

A wave of food-themed DeFi tokens flooded the market, with SushiSwap (SUSHI), BurgerSwap (BURGER), Yam Finance (YAM), BakerySwap (BAKE), Pizza (PIZZA), Hotdog.Swap (HOTDOG), and Kimchi Finance (KIMCHI) taking the lead. Capital rotated from these assets to Bitcoin and BTC’s rally in the first half of the cycle was also driven largely by retail traders. 

Later, MicroStrategy’s incursion into Bitcoin started the era of mass institutional participation in crypto.  Investment banks, funds and hedge funds turned to Bitcoin as an opportunity to  amass returns for their clients. Tesla’s $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase in 2021 contributed to the shift of traditional markets’ attention  into the crypto ecosystem, leading to a rally in Bitcoin price that was  fueled by a frenzy among large wallet investors and institutions.

Whale transactions worth $1 million or higher, represented in blue, climbed steadily throughout 2020, hitting a peak in early 2021 and Q3 2021. This signals an increase in participation by large wallet investors on the Bitcoin network in the 2020-2023 cycle.

Whale transaction count (valued at $100,000 or higher), represented by yellow bars, peaked in the months leading up to BTC’s run up to its peak of $69,044.71 in November 2021. The chart below focuses on the role of whales in Bitcoin price cycles and the critical role played in the 2021 bull run. 

Bitcoin whale participation and activity

Whales emerged as one of the dominant catalysts in Bitcoin’s price cycles. When BTC price hit its all-time high of $69,044.71, both segments of whale transactions climbed to their peaks, highlighting the importance of these participants in Bitcoin’s cycles. 

Rising whale transaction count can therefore be considered a sign of an impending BTC price rally, based on data from the 2015 to 2017 and the 2020 to 2023 cycles. While Bitcoin price cycles do not repeat, and the catalysts which start them can change, there seems to be a common factor pushing the BTC price higher every time: whales. 

Share:

• Synthetix Network’s total value locked nearly doubled to $428.12 million since the beginning of 2023.
• The derivatives liquidity protocol beat trading platforms in volume and daily active users this week, driving SNX price higher.
• Synthetix’s founder listed several conceptual proposals to offer SNX trading incentives and staking rewards.

The founder of Synthetix Network, a decentralized derivatives trading platform, submitted a set of conceptual proposals that are likely to benefit SNX holders and community members in the long term. 

SNX witnessed a massive spike in Total Value Locked (TVL) and on-chain metrics (volume and daily active users) compared to other decentralized protocols. 

Also read: Elon Musk warns traders against “betting the farm” on his favorite cryptocurrency Dogecoin

Synthetix Network beats competitors in daily active users and trade volume

A crypto expert, Paddy the Pirate (@StPaddyPirate) sourced data from DeFiLlama, Tokenterminal and Artemis.xyz for a Decentralized Exchange (DEX) dashboard. Based on data from the dashboard, volume and daily active users witnessed a significant decrease across the board this week. 

Perps DEX dashboard

Synthetix Network (SNX) stood out from its competitors with a spike in its volume, nearly four times that of competitor GMX. Interestingly, the rise in on-chain volume this week acted as a bullish catalyst for SNX, driving SNX price higher. 

Currently trading at $2.545, SNX yields nearly 17% gains for holders over the past week. Interestingly, the TVL of the protocol climbed from $246.36 million (on January 1) to $428.12 million (at press time), nearly doubling Year Till Date (YTD). 

Synthetix Network TVL YTD

What’s driving SNX price rally

Alongside the spike in on-chain metrics, SNX founder Kane Warwick’s conceptual proposal has acted as a bullish catalyst for the token. Warwick submitted 12 governance proposals to push SNX into the next phase where the community benefits from opportunities in the form of staking yield and trading incentives. 

Warwick’s proposals are outlined in a “State of Synthetix” post where the founder suggests a 3:1 split of SNX, followed by a buyback and subsequent burn using the Synthetix Treasury’s fee yield. 

Proposals by Kane Warwick

Warwick explains that the proposals are only in the conceptual stage and the founder controls one out of four votes on the council. The post started a discussion within the community, acting as a catalyst for SNX price. 

Share:

• Elon Musk told the Wall Street Journal that he remains a fan of Dogecoin but does not advise anyone “to bet the farm” on DOGE. 
• Musk explains that Dogecoin is his favorite cryptocurrency because it has the best humor and a dog. 
• The Tesla CEO’s advice was accompanied by a 2.5% price decline in DOGE on the 24-hour timeframe. 

Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO and Dogecoin proponent, expressed his preference for DOGE in an interview with The Wall Street Journal while advising traders not to risk everything on the meme coin. Musk is tackling a $258 million lawsuit that accuses him of running a pyramid scheme to support the cryptocurrency Dogecoin.

Also read: Shiba Inu’s Shibarium heats up competition among Ethereum-based blockchains Arbitrum and Optimism

Musk warns traders against risking their capital on his favorite crypto: Dogecoin

The billionaire CEO of Tesla told the Wall Street Journal that Dogecoin is his favorite cryptocurrency. Musk explained that he does not advise traders to “bet the farm on DOGE” – another way of saying that traders should not risk their whole purse.

The Tesla CEO recently asked a US Court judge to throw out the $258 million lawsuit that accuses Musk of running a pyramid scheme to support Dogecoin. Musk’s comments and his expression of support for his favorite cryptocurrency DOGE in the form of tweets, memes and statements throughout 2022 resulted in a rally in the meme coin’s price. 

Typically, meme coin rallies are fueled by hype and speculation surrounding an asset. Dogecoin price rallied in response to Musk’s tweets and comments on several occasions in 2022. 

In February 2021, DOGE price rallied 37% in a 24-hour period, climbing to $0.0849 in response to Musk’s tweets supporting the meme coin. Similarly, last month when Musk changed Twitter’s logo from the blue bird to the Shiba Inu dog, DOGE price climbed 27% overnight. 

These instances support a thesis of DOGE price rallies fueled by Musk’s comments. 

Dogecoin price nosedives in response to Musk’s comments

Elon Musk’s comments on Dogecoin were accompanied by a price decline in the meme coin, which dropped 2.5% in a 24-hour timeframe to $0.0712. DOGE price is 90% below its all-time high of $0.7315, and the meme coin yielded nearly 10% losses for holders over the past month.

Share:

• Bitcoin funds saw outflows of more than  $32 million over the last week as sentiment among traders turned negative.  
• XRP and Litecoin witnessed weekly inflows of $0.5 million in the last seven days. 
• Negative sentiment towards BTC has acted as a bullish catalyst for XRP and Litecoin funds. 

Institutional investors pulled capital out of Bitcoin funds for a fifth consecutive week as sentiment towards BTC turned negative. While the flagship cryptocurrency loses popularity among market participants, XRP and Litecoin funds have witnessed capital inflows. 

Also read: Hong Kong leaves the door open to Ethereum killers Cardano, Solana, AVAX, MATIC and LINK

XRP, Litecoin funds see capital inflows 

Based on data from CoinShares’ latest report on institutional capital inflow, investors are moving funds out of cryptocurrency investment products, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum. Outflows from overall crypto investment funds amount to $232 million in the last five weeks.

The following table shows the weekly and monthly flows by asset in US Dollars. 

Weekly capital flows by asset 

Bitcoin and Ethereum noted weekly outflows of $32.7 million and $1 million, respectively. On the contrary, Litecoin and XRP saw inflows of around $500,000 overall over the past week. Interestingly, these are the two assets that benefited the most from negative sentiment among traders towards Bitcoin. 

Trading volumes across cryptocurrency exchanges have declined since late 2020, data from the report shows. Trading volume across exchange platforms has plunged to a new low of  $20 billion for the third week of May. 

In an environment where investors are pulling out from assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP and Litecoin stand out with positive capital inflows. This is a key development for the two altcoins. 

What XRP and Litecoin holders can expect

The community of XRP holders wait for  an outcome of the  US financial regulator Securities and Exchange Commission’s lawsuit against Ripple. As per recent developments, XRP holders are anticipating a positive outcome for the cross-border payment-remittance firm. Find out more here.

Meanwhile, Litecoin is less than 80 days away from its third halving event and the altcoin’s on-chain metrics paint a bullish picture for the asset. Read more here. 

Share:

• Shiba Inu’s layer-2 scaling solution Shibarium surpassed 11 million transactions on its native test network Puppynet. 
• Puppynet has processed over 11 million transactions for 15.9 million addresses since its launch in March. 
• Shibarium’s new milestone helps layer-2 position itself as a competitor to Ethereum-based blockchains Arbitrum and Optimism. 

Shiba Inu, one of the largest meme coin projects in the crypto ecosystem, is gearing up to compete with Ethereum layer-2 blockchains. Scaling solution Shibarium’s test network Puppynet surpassed 11 million transactions. 

Also read: Three reasons why Litecoin whales could push LTC price to $100 before third halving

Shibarium’s Puppynet hits a new milestone with 11 million transactions

The Shiba Inu ecosystem’s layer-2 scaling solution hit a key milestone with transactions on the native test network Puppynet climbing above 11 million. Based on data from the BlockScout explorer, Puppynet has completed 11,160,339 transactions for 15.94 million wallet addresses. 

Puppynet statistics

Around 3% of the 11.16 million transactions, nearly 400,000, was recorded in a 24-hour period on May 21. The success of the layer-2 scaling solution is preparing Shibarium to compete with Ethereum-based Arbitrum and Optimism. 

Arbitrum and Optimism are focused on tackling scalability, speed and relatively high cost of transactions. With Shibarium in the mix, these Ethereum-based blockchains have a new competitor vying for market share in the ecosystem. 

Shibarium was built with a focus on metaverse and gaming applications. The layer-2 solutions’ relatively low transaction cost is likely to attract decentralized application (dApp) developers to build on the network. 

Shiba Inu battles the speculation and hype

While most meme coin projects are typically driven by speculation and hype, Shiba Inu has differentiated itself from its competitors with a layer-2 scaling solution and a metaverse gaming ecosystem. 

Shiba Inu’s ecosystem tokens SHIB, BONE and LEASH control upwards of $5 billion in crypto market capitalization and the success of Shibarium is likely to fuel a bullish thesis among holders, driving these assets higher.

Share:

• Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warns against layer-1 driven recovery of layer-2 projects on the Ethereum blockchain.
• Buterin outlines how re-staking initiatives or layer-1 soft forks could hurt Ethereum network’s consensus. 
• Buterin gives the green flag to dual-use of Ether staked by validators, but  condemns the use of social consensus for layer-2 applications.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of the largest smart contract blockchain network, published on Sunday a warning against the risks of overloading the Ethereum consensus layer. While Buterin is in favor of a dual use for staked Ether, the Ethereum co-founder warned against the use of the ETH consensus layer for layer-2 applications. 

In a blog post, Buterin said that using the consensus layer for re-staking and soft forks could bring high systemic risks, leaving the Ethereum blockchain vulnerable.

Also read: Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC set to punish greedy bulls

Ethereum consensus layer could get overwhelmed 

The Ethereum consensus layer could be vulnerable to an attack if the blockchain gets overloaded. In his post, Buterin addressed  concerns surrounding re-staking initiatives or layer-1 soft forks on the ETH blockchain.

The Ethereum network could face high systemic risks in the following cases, according to Buterin: 

• Proposals where users vote by sending Ethereum, with those opting for the majority answer getting  a proportional share of all the ETH sent to vote for the minority answer.
• Re-staking Ethereum stake and using it to “vote” instead of in-protocol incentives.
• Layer-1 driven recovery of layer-2 projects, in the event that L2 has a bug and L1 forks are used to recover it.

Buterin acknowledges that even as most proposals to utilize the Ethereum consensus layer or staked Ether are made in a well-intentioned way, they pose risks to the underlying blockchain and should be discouraged. 

Buterin’s concern is that any  expansion of the duties of the Ethereum consensus layer increases the  costs, complexities, and risks of running a validator. Exposing layer-1 by stretching the duties of the consensus layer to risks could grind the blockchain to a halt. 

How does this influence Ethereum

The Ethereum co-founder’s objective is to sustain the resilience and stability of the ETH blockchain. In the event of situations like re-staking and soft forks, the Ethereum consensus layer is at risk of an unexpected fork, or a community split among validators.

Ethereum is the native token of a neutral technical problem, a fork or split could negatively influence the asset’s utility, adoption and price in the long term. 

Share:

• Binance has shifted its focus with the launch of its Ether-Wrapped Beacon ETH token in a pool on Curve Finance.
• The pool ranks eighth among liquid staking derivatives, amassing $129.9 million in total value since its release in late April.
• Binance Coin, the native token of Binance, could outperform competitors with its rising dominance in the DeFi landscape.

The largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, Binance, is gearing up to establish its dominance in the DeFi landscape with the launch of Ethereum-wrapped Beacon Ether (ETH-wBETH) liquidity pool on Curve Finance. 

Binance is incentivizing users with staked Ether rather than native tokens like other protocols. This has helped the pool amass $129.9 million in Total Value Locked (TVL) since its launch on April 27. 

Also read: Bitcoin mining difficulty hits record high, signals likely influx of selling pressure on BTC

Binance ETH-wBETH pool on Curve Finance gains $129 million TVL in two weeks

The wrapped Beacon Ethereum (wBETH) token was launched on April 27 and Binance introduced it in an ETH-wBETH liquidity pool on Curve Finance. Each wBETH represents one Beacon Ether and the accrued staking rewards from the Beacon Chain at the rate of conversion of 1.002. 

Within two weeks, 70.9K wBETH tokens have been minted and the current TVL is $129.9 million. wBETH ranks eighth among Liquid Staking Derivatives. 

wBETH statistics 

Binance can gain an edge over its competitors by inviting users to deepen the liquidity of the ETH-wBETH pool. In order to make this possible, the largest exchange by trade volume needs voting rights and needs to lock Convex Finance (CVX) tokens.

The exchange is currently incentivizing vlCVX (vote locking CVX) holders with 11.381 wBETH, instead of a native protocol token. This opens up an opportunity for vlCVX token holders to gain staked Ether instead of other tokens like wstETH (wrapped staked Ether) offered by Lido Finance that need to be exchanged further for unlocked staked ETH. 

Binance’s dominance in DeFi could fuel BNB price recovery

The exchange’s native token BNB benefits from Binance’s dominance in the DeFi landscape. BNB is in an upward trend that started in mid-June 2022 and Binance’s native token is on track to break past the 50% Fibonacci retracement (of the decline from April 2022 highs of $460 to June lows of $184) at $322. 

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $318.80 is the immediate resistance for BNB in its upward trend. 

BNB/USD one-day price chart

In the event of a price decline, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $289.50 would be key. A drop below this level could invalidate the bullish thesis for Binance Coin. Equal low at $267.7 is likely to act as support for BNB in the event of a decline in the native token of the exchange.

Share:

• Chainlink’s large wallet addresses holding between 10,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1,000,000 LINK tokens have started accumulating the altcoin. 
• A large percentage of Chainlink holders are sitting on unrealized losses. 
• LINK price has likely hit bottom in the current market cycle. 

Chainlink, the token of the decentralized blockchain oracle network, has likely hit the bottom in the current market cycle. LINK’s average trading returns have consistently declined, with 63.26% of holders sitting on unrealized losses. 

Also read: Axie Infinity rallies 17% after Origins game release on the Apple App Store

Chainlink whales accumulate LINK while 63.5% holders sit on losses

Chainlink’s large wallet addresses holding between 10,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1,000,000 LINK tokens have increased their holdings between May 8 and 17. The number of LINK whales holding between 10,000 to 100,000 Chainlink tokens climbed from 2,908 to 2,926 and the second segment of addresses that hold 100,000 to 1,000,000 added three new holders. 

Chainlink accumulation by large wallet addresses 

The accumulation of LINK tokens by whales in these two segments is bullish as it signals a rise in the number of large wallet addresses holding the altcoin. What’s more, accumulation by whales pulls LINK tokens out of circulation and reduces the selling pressure on the asset. 

Interestingly, whales are scooping up LINK at a time when 63.5% of LINK holders are sitting on unrealized losses. 

Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker IntoTheBlock, at $6.63, 63.26% of LINK token holders are sitting on unrealized losses. This metric signals that whales are likely “buying the dip.”

LINK token holders sitting on unrealized losses 

Chainlink enters opportunity zone 

The Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV), a metric that calculates the ratio between the current price and the average price of every coin/token acquired, is used to identify the potential profits or losses if the asset was sold at the current price. This helps determine how over or undervalued the asset is. 

Chainlink’s 30-day MVRV is less than one, it is -5.355% at the current price ($6.60), indicating that most traders selling at the current price level would net a loss. 

Chainlink 30-day MVRV ratio 

The MVRV ratio suggests that Chainlink is in the opportunity “buy” zone since LINK is currently undervalued, with MVRV below one. Interestingly, the asset slipped into its opportunity zone with a high level of development activity on the protocol.

Chainlink development activity

A high volume of development activity is correlated with an increase in the project’s utility, adoption and price. However, the LINK price moved in the opposite direction, with the asset in the opportunity “buy” zone, making it likely that the altcoin has hit its cycle bottom and is ready for recovery. 

Share:

• Huobi token price nosedived by nearly 8% within hours as chat records of the exchange’s founder cashing out HT tokens were circulated in the community. 
• Huobi founder Li Lin’s brother Wei holds 167,279.98 HT, worth $468,000 at press time. 
• Justin Sun commented on the controversial sale of HT and assured the community an equivalent number of tokens will be destroyed.

Huobi Token witnessed volatility in its prices as the exchange’s founder Li Lin’s brother dumped his Huobi Token (HT) holdings on the platform. Chat records about Li Wei’s sale of HT tokens were circulated in the community, fueling uncertainty among traders. 

Justin Sun addressed the issue and assured HT holders that the volume of Huobi Token sold by Wei will be destroyed from supply to restore the value of the exchange token. 

Also read: Ethereum researcher proposes MEV burn to protect ETH blockchain from manipulation

Huobi Token price fluctuates with Wei’s HT token dump

Huobi Token price witnessed massive swings, dropping 8% within a few hours on Tuesday as large volumes of HT were dumped on an exchange platform. Colin Wu, a Chinese reporter, investigated the cause of the volatility and learned that chat records of Huobi founder Li Lin’s brother Wei selling his HT holdings on the exchange were being circulated in the community. 

Founder Li Lin’s brother reportedly holds 167,279.98 HT in his wallet on the Huobi exchange and his account has been reportedly frozen. Justin Sun, a Huobi stakeholder addressed the issue for the community in a recent tweet. 

Sun explained that Li Wei had acquired HT tokens at zero cost through abnormal means. Wei sold the tokens on Huobi exchange in several batches and withdrew cash in exchange. Sun acknowledged that these actions were against the interest of users and the HT holder community and informed that the Huobi Global Advisory Committee and the HT DAO community decided to recover and destroy the HT obtained by Li Wei for free. 

The HT destruction will be announced in the HT community and Wei’s actions have been criticized by the platform and its management. 

Huobi Token price swings

Huobi Token is in a downward trend, with HT tackling resistance at the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.9571. The exchange token witnessed an 11.8% price swing from $2.69 to $3.01, recovering in response to Justin Sun’s tweet. 

HT could face immediate resistances at the 50- and 200-day EMAs at $3.4631 and $4.6108. In the event of a definitive close above the trendline, HT could break out of its downward trend. 

HT one-day price chart

In the event of a price decline, HT price could nosedive to the weekly low at $2.6858. 

Share:

• Dogecoin daily transactions climbed to an all-time high of 650,000 and surpassed Bitcoin and Litecoin on May 15. 
• Bitcoin network’s BRC20 and Litecoin’s LTC20 inspired Dogecoin’s DRC20 standard, fueling on-chain activity in the meme coin. 
• DOGE price started its recovery from the recent pullback, climbing to the $0.0728 level. 

Dogecoin, the largest meme coin in the crypto ecosystem, witnessed a peak in daily transactions, which climbed to a record high of 650,000. On May 15, DOGE network transactions surpassed Bitcoin and Litecoin, setting a new record. 

The meme coin’s price started recovering from the recent lows, climbing to $0.0728. 

Also read: GALA price rallies 5% ahead of Version 2 tokens airdrop

Dogecoin transactions skyrocket, surpass Bitcoin and Litecoin

Dogecoin transactions surpassed Bitcoin and Litecoin on May 15, hitting a peak of 650,000. Inspired by Bitcoin Ordinals’ BRC20 and Litecoin’s LTC20 token standard, Dogecoin network got its DRC20 standard fueling activity on the blockchain. 

Dogecoin transactions against Bitcoin and Litecoin 

The spike in on-chain activity on the Dogecoin network since May 13 has fueled a recovery in the meme coin price. The DOGE price climbed to $0.07360 earlier on Monday. 

DOGE price analysis

Dogecoin price broke out of its downward trend in the last week of April 2023. The meme coin started its recovery with the hype surrounding DRC20 token standard and is likely to face immediate resistance at $0.0783, a level that acted as support throughout April. 

The Fibonacci retracement from $0.1600 in November 2022 to $0.0622 in mid-March 2023 identifies key resistance levels for Dogecoin. 

There are three key resistances in DOGE price rally to the target of $0.1105, the December 2022 peak for the meme coin. DOGE price needs to tackle the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0850, resistance at $0.0885, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.0991 before hitting its $0.1105 target. 

DOGE/USD 1-day price chart

If Dogecoin price nosedives below support at $0.0682, it would invalidate the bullish thesis and a drop to the $0.0622 March low is likely. 

Share:

• The upgrade of Gala Games ecosystem to version 2 will be carried out Monday.
• All users holding the Version 1 token will receive a new token in a 1:1 airdrop.
• GALA price climbed 5% overnight, before the airdrop.

The decentralized Gala Games ecosystem has announced the launch of its Version 2 (V2) and the corresponding airdrop for all GALA Version 1 (V1) token holders. With the snapshot for the airdrop less than ten hours away, the token is rallying, yielding nearly 5% gains for holders overnight. 

Also read: Lido Version 2 rollout on the Ethereum mainnet likely to be a sell-the-news event

GALA V2 airdrop snapshot scheduled hours away

GALA’s Version 2 airdrop is scheduled to occur on Monday, as the games ecosystem prepares for the event. All holders of GALA V1 tokens will receive a 1:1 airdrop of the V2 token following the snapshot. 

Gala Games ecosystem asked users to ensure that their V1 tokens are held in their private wallets or wallets of exchanges that support the Version 2 rollout. 

Developers asked users to remove their GALA tokens from liquidity pools or smart contracts before snapshot on May 15 as there is no guarantee that tokens dropped to liquidity pool contracts will be recoverable. 

Countdown to GALA V2 token snapshot

Ahead of the token airdrop, the protocol’s token yielded 5% gains for traders in a 24-hour timeframe. GALA price could correct in response to the airdrop, given the token has been rallying for a week in anticipation of the event. 

If the event turns out to be sell-the-news, GALA price could pullback to support at $0.028. 

GALA price analysis

GALA price is in a downtrend that started in February 2022. The token started its recovery in the beginning of 2023 with a 217% gain in the first week of January and 68% rally in the second week of March. With a definitive close above the descending trendline, GALA price could be poised for a similar price rally in May. 

GALA/USD 1-day price chart

The immediate resistances are at $0.0592, $0.0879 and $0.1320, key levels for GALA throughout the second half of 2022. In the event of a decline, GALA price could nosedive to $0.0200, a level previously seen in the beginning of 2023. 

Share:

• Bitcoin Ordinals trading volume has declined for three consecutive days after hitting a peak of $18.13 million on May 8. 
• The number of transactions has reduced to a third between May 8 and May 11. 
• Bitcoin network’s hashrate and price have declined alongside the drop in on-chain activity of Ordinals. 

Bitcoin Ordinals that enable the addition of text, images and code on the smallest unit of a BTC, a satoshi, have noted a decline in its popularity. The trade volume of Ordinals hit a peak on May 8 before its downward spiral and the number of transactions dropped from 17,000 to 6,000 in the three-day period between May 8 and 11. 

Also read: Bitcoin falls below $27,600, erasing CPI-related gains

Bitcoin Ordinals on-chain activity declines

Based on data from the Dune panel, the trade volume of Bitcoin Ordinals is in a downward trend. After hitting a record high of $18.13 million on May 8, the trade volume declined for three days in a row to $4.86 million. 

Trade volume by blockchain on Dune Analytics

The number of transactions declined to a third, from 17,000 on May 8 to 6,000 on May 11. The chart below shows a steep decline from May 8 to May 10. 

Transactions by blockchain on Dune Analytics

Interestingly, the drop in Bitcoin Ordinals on-chain activity has negatively impacted the hashrate and price of BTC. 

Bitcoin hashrate and BTC price drop

Bitcoin hashrate is 360.34M TH/s, down from 400M TH/s on May 10. Hashrate is the measure of the computational power of the network and determines the security and mining difficulty. 

As Bitcoin transaction fees decline, there is a drop in miners in the BTC network and this negatively influences the hashrate. Alongside a decrease in the network’s hashrate, there has been a drop in Bitcoin price. 

Bitcoin hash rate Year-To-Date (YTD)

Bitcoin price nosedived 4% since Thursday, wiping out gains that followed the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. At the time of writing, BTC is exchanging hands at $26,445, nearly 10% below its May 5 high. 

Share:

• PEPE tokens worth $46.37 million have been deposited to exchange wallets in the past 24 hours, increasing the selling pressure on the meme coin. 
• PEPE’s price has plunged 30% overnight, losing more than $200 million in market capitalization 
• PEPE holders are back to break-even levels after a 2,000% price increase since the meme coin’s all-time low of $0.0000000551. 

PEPE, the third largest meme coin by market capitalization, has witnessed massive swings in its price in a matter of days. PEPE hit an all-time high of $0.00000431 on May 5 but has since then fallen sharply, trading at $0.00000127 at the time of writing. 

The meme coin gears up for more price volatility ahead as there has been  an increase in PEPE deposits across cryptocurrency exchanges. 

Also read: Lido DAO could begin its recovery as staking yield of stETH hits historical high

PEPE battles intense selling pressure 

PEPE, a meme coin inspired by “Pepe the Frog meme”, faces increasing selling pressure. Experts at Scope Protocol monitored on-chain activity and said that 33 trillion PEPE tokens, worth $46.37 million, were deposited by 1,176 addresses. 

Analysts at Scope Protocol have warned the crypto community of risks associated with massive swings in meme coins like PEPE. Typically, a large increase in deposits of the token to exchanges is considered bearish for the asset. 

PEPE price fell by a sharp 21% in the past 24 hours, according to  data from CoinGecko. With the rising exchange wallet balances of PEPE tokens, the price of the meme coin is likely to experience a further correction 

PEPE holders break-even, what’s next for the meme coin?

On-chain analysts at Santiment released a report on PEPE coin, examining on-chain metrics to find out where the meme coin is headed. Within the past 24 hours, the 30-day market-value-to-realized-value MVRV (a ratio of an asset’s market capitalization versus its realized capitalization) shows that holders are currently at break-even. 

PEPE MVRV chart

A decline in PEPE price below $0.00000126 could push it into  negative territory, making it an “opportunity zone” for whales and traders to buy at a relatively low price. 

Still, It’s important to note that PEPE’s price, similar to other meme coins, is largely influenced by speculation and crowd expectations. Meme coins typically suffer a pullback when traders engage in large volume of profit-taking by holders, like it’s happening currently with PEPE. PEPE holders are therefore likely to witness a correction in the short-term. 

Share:

• Milady Meme Coin has revived the meme season narrative in the crypto ecosystem yielding 11,885% gains for holders overnight. 
• LADYS gained popularity with Twitter CEO Elon Musk’s recent tweet and the token’s 24 hour trade volume is nearly half that of PEPE. 
• A large wallet address that acquired PEPE and LADYS has booked upwards of 35 times gains on each, according to on-chain data. 

PEPE, the meme coin inspired by “Pepe the frog meme” gained popularity in the crypto community after yielding nearly 615% gains over the past two weeks. A newly launched meme coin Milady (LADYS) rallied 11,885% overnight, and PEPE whales bought the token in large volumes. 

Also read: MATIC price poised for recovery with 52% increase in total value locked on Polygon’s bridge

Milady Meme Coin price rallies 11,885% in a 24-hour period

PEPE’s massive popularity and three-digit gains for holders fueled the “meme coin season” narrative where capital rotates from Bitcoin, Ethereum and mainstream assets into meme tokens. 

PEPE experienced a pullback since its explosive price rally, declining 62% from its May 5 all-time high of $0.00000431. Newly launched meme coin LADYS has replaced PEPE as the token yielding massive gains for holders. 

LADYS hit a peak of $0.00000017 before retracing to $0.00000012 at press time. 

LADYS/WETH 15-minute price chart 

The meme coin garnered mass support after a tweet from Elon Musk. The tweet features a Milady NFT, one of the 10,000 NFTs created in 2021 by digital arts collective Remilia. 

The Milady Meme Coin has no affiliation with the NFTs, however the similarity in the names of the two projects fueled a bullish sentiment among LADYS holders. 

PEPE whales make 35x gains on LADYS

PEPE’s large wallet holder addresses bought LADYS and sold the token at 35 times gains according to on-chain data from crypto intelligence tracker Lookonchain. 

On-chain data of whale transactions

Analysts gathered the on-chain data supporting the purchase of PEPE and LADYS by a whale wallet address that gained 36x on PEPE and 35x on LADYS.

LADYS is a relatively new meme coin and the project is not listed on centralized crypto exchanges yet. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has previously warned traders regarding the risks associated with new meme coin projects with relatively small market capitalization. 

Share:

• The total value locked in Polygon’s zkEVM bridge has climbed by 52% in a single day on Thursday. 
• The spike comes from addition of $3 million in MATIC and stMATIC to the bridge.
• MATIC price faces resistance at $0.9363 on its path to recover from the recent pullback. 

MATIC, the native token of Ethereum’s scaling solution Polygon is likely to begin its recovery with the massive growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) onf Polygon’s zkEVM bridge. There has been an addition of $3 million in MATIC and stMATIC to the bridge since Wednesday. 

Also read: Bitcoin falls below $27,600, erasing CPI-related gains

Polygon network’s zkEVM bridge notes increase in Total Value Locked overnight

Polygon network is Ethereum’s largest Layer 2 scaling solution and the protocol recently released its zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (zkEVM) bridge. Following its launch, zkEVM bridge gained popularity in the crypto community and the TVL of assets locked on the bridge climbed 52% overnight since Wednesday. 

$3 million in MATIC and stMATIC have been added to the bridge, based on data from Dune Analytics. 

Polygon zkEVM TVL

Polygon’s zkEVM bridge’s TVL has climbed at a slower pace than Arbitrum and other competitors in the zk ecosystem and co-founder Sandeep Nailwal believes that crypto market participants are interested in projects that are likely to airdrop tokens to users.

MATIC price likely to begin its recovery with the bullish catalyst

MATIC price is currently in an uptrend that started in June 2022. The MATIC/USD one-day price chart below shows the decline in MATIC price, the asset plunged to $0.8551. Polygon’s native token is trading below its three long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), 10, 50 and 200-day at $0.9254, $1.0351 and $1.0393 respectively. 

If MATIC begins its recovery, it could face immediate resistance at $1.0351, the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and the trendline. Next key resistance for the layer 2 token is $1.1840 a key resistance for the altcoin for over a year. 

MATIC/USD 1D price chart

If MATIC plummets to support at $0.7555, a level previously seen at the beginning of 2023 – it could invalidate the bullish thesis. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 27.16, signaling that MATIC is currently oversold and there is room for recovery in the asset.

Share:

• Bitcoin climbed above the $28,000 level and Ethereum inched closer to $1,900 in response to US Consumer Price Index data release. 
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation declined to 4.9% in April, against the market expectations of 5%. 
• Technical expert behind tedtalksmacro has set a bullish target of $29,000 for BTC price. 

Bitcoin price eyes the $29,000 target as US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.9%, below market participant’s expectations of 5%. The largest asset by market capitalization rallied in response to the data release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

Also read: Breaking: US CPI inflation data declines to 4.9% in April vs. 5% expected

Bitcoin price climbs above $28,000 with this macro catalyst

Bitcoin was trading sideways below the $28,000 level for nearly a week, in the absence of a catalyst. The US CPI release fueled Bitcoin’s breakout past $28,000, the asset is now climbing closer to resistance at $29,000. 

The US CPI is considered a well-known indicator of inflation and change in prices paid by urban consumers over time. The CPI’s decline of 4.9% on a yearly basis in April 2023 was below market expectations of 5%, while CPI and Core CPI increased by 0.4%, matching the market analysts’ estimates. 

BTC/USD 15-minute price chart 

As seen in the price chart above, Bitcoin is currently in an uptrend and the asset hit a peak of $28,327 in response to the US CPI release for April 2023. BTC price experienced a pullback, however it has sustained above the $28,000 level, making it key support for Bitcoin. 

With a US CPI release of 4.9%, technical experts at Tedtalksmacro have set a bullish target of $29,000 for Bitcoin.

In the case of Ethereum, the altcoin wiped out its losses since May 7, climbing past the $1,880 level in a bullish knee-jerk reaction by ETH traders. 

ETH/USD 15-minute price chart 

Ethereum price climbed past $1,887, erasing losses since Monday, followed by a moderate pullback to support at $1,876. As long as Ethereum price sustains above the $1,850 level, the upward trend is intact. A decisive close below the trendline could invalidate the bullish thesis for Ethereum. 

Share:

• Ripple proponent attorney John Deaton argues digital assets can be sold as a security in the primary market, but not in the secondary. 
• The attorney says digital assets like XRP and Bitcoin are not securities.
• The comments open the door to a possible settlement in the SEC vs. Ripple case.

Attorney John Deaton, known as amicus curiae or an impartial adviser to the court of law in SEC v. Ripple, said that digital assets aren’t securities, but can be treated as such when they are exchanged in the primary market. The comments could pave the way for a settlement between the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and payment firm Ripple. 

The Ripple proponent said that  digital assets in itself are not securities, but they may be sold as one under certain circumstances.  This requires an examination of each transaction in primary and secondary sales involving XRP. 

Also read: PEPE whales likely catching a falling knife as they buy 2 trillion tokens in recent pullback

Attorney John Deaton says XRP is a security on this condition

The founder of Crypto Law argues that digital assets like XRP and Bitcoin are not securities by themselves citing the Howey Test. 

However, in the event of the sale of a digital asset like XRP, the asset acts as a security in the transaction. Thus,  each sale in both the primary and secondary markets needs to be examined by the SEC. 

Deaton substantiated his argument by drawing precedents from similar lawsuits..

Deaton explained that the interpretation that “tokens are investment contracts” is false and that the SEC is not arguing it. The Ripple proponent refers to the SEC vs. LBRY case, where the judge ruled that secondary sales of LBRY are not considered securities sales. 

Why does this development matter?

Accepting that XRP is not a security in itself but may be “sold as one” could change the expected outcome of the SEC’s case against Ripple. Similar to the LBRY case, where the SEC admitted on record that the sale of LBRY Credits (LBC) tokens in the secondary market doesn’t constitute security, a similar settlement becomes likely in the legal battle against Ripple. 

While the XRP Army is awaiting a win for the payment giant, another positive outcome for the altcoin’s holders may come in the form of a settlement where the asset is considered a security only in primary sales, or those carried out by Ripple and its executives. 

In this case,  sales of XRP in the secondary market may be exempt from being considered a security.