On December 1, dYdX, the layer-2 decentralized exchange, will unlock 150 million DYDX worth roughly $478 million to early investors and core team members. This substantial unlock has raised concerns among investors, who fear the influx of fresh tokens could substantially increase supply. If this is not matched by high demand, DYDX prices will likely pull back, reversing recent gains posted over the past few trading weeks. DYDX Worth $500 Million To Hit The Market According to Bubblemaps data, out of the $478 million worth of DYDX, over 50% is allocated to venture capitalists (VCs), including Paradigm and Polychain. Zooming back and looking at their data, VCs seeded $100 million to the layer-2 decentralized exchange. These tokens were distributed to private investors through five wallets, including Coinbase Custody, Investor Distribution, and the Foundation Wallet. Currently trading at over $3, DYDX is at February 2023 levels and technically bullish. However, the upcoming token unlock casts a shadow over the token’s positive momentum. Related Reading: Shiba Inu L2 Shibarium Crosses 4 Million Transactions As Burn Rate Explodes Notably, dYdX, postponed its token unlock by ten months. According to data, the humongous DYDX unlock was initially postponed from February to December 2023. Following this move, DYDX prices edged higher. Even so, prices pulled back before consolidating in the better part of Q2, Q3, and early Q4 2023. There was a pronounced rally in late October 2023 as DYDX rose, riding the optimism across the crypto board. At spot rates, DYDX is up 82% from October 2023 highs. However, looking at price action, bears are retesting the 20-day moving average of the BB. A break below this level might trigger a sell-off, pushing prices back to October 2023 highs. Which Way Could Take The Price Action? While it is likely that prices could contract ahead or after the unlocking event, the team has devised a way of mitigating the expected selling pressure. To illustrate, the initial unlock will release 30% of the total amount. Afterward, there will be monthly equal releases over the next three years. For optimists, however, that a significant portion of these tokens will go to the team, and investors could end up supporting prices. Team members and venture capitalists trade less frequently than retail investors, meaning the expected liquidation pressure, if any, could be limited. Moreover, some team members and even early investors might consider re-staking DYDX from their infrastructure, giving them more control. Related Reading: Bitcoin Alert: $137 Million Moved By Long-Sleeping Whale, Market Braces For Impact Even with this release, crypto participants are upbeat, anticipating Bitcoin prices to track higher ahead of the expected spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). More tailwinds could result from the Bitcoin halving event in early Q2 2024. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
In the last two months, Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, has been increasingly decoupling from XRP, the native currency of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and BNB, the coin priming the broader Binance ecosystem. While this pans out, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) remain mostly correlated with Bitcoin. XRP, BNB Decoupling From Bitcoin While rising de-correlation suggests that the market is maturing and becoming more sophisticated, secondary factors could make some of the top altcoins decouple and chart their courses away from the tight grasp of Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Community And Cardano Founder Engage In Heated Clash Sharing data from Kaiko, a blockchain analytics firm, @cryptobusy on X notes that the correlation between Bitcoin, XRP, and BNB has been contracting in the last two months. Meanwhile, BTC, Dogecoin, and Cardano prices have been moving in sync despite fundamental factors of each project impacting price action over this period. The drop in correlation indicates that altcoins are increasingly gaining more market share from Bitcoin. This drop in Bitcoin dominance happens especially whenever certain altcoins move independently and are not influenced by how Bitcoin trends. In most cases, like it has been the case in Q4 2023, a spike in Bitcoin prices triggers altcoin demand, lifting them as a result. Besides Cardano and Dogecoin, for instance, Solana (SOL) and Tron (TRX) are two altcoins that have been rallying and tracking Bitcoin. Additionally, the drop in correlation could mean the altcoin scene is maturing, and more investors are keen on picking out projects that offer more utility, not just BTC proxies. With more investors, altcoins tend to be more liquid, drawing even more capital. BNB, XRP, BTC Impacted By Fundamental Factors Even so, there could be more that explains the decoupling, especially with BNB and XRP. Seismic fundamental events have impacted BTC, XRP, and BNB ecosystems in the last two months. Related Reading: A Golden Opportunity For Ethereum? 600% Buy Signal Returns The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), for instance, is likely to approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs filed by several heavyweights, including BlackRock and Fidelity, in the coming weeks. Hopes of the regulator authorizing these derivatives tracking spot BTC prices have catalyzed demand, lifting the coin to new 2023 highs. Meanwhile, a United States court ruled in favor of XRP being a utility when sold to retailers. The case initially forced prices higher, but the coin tracked lower throughout late Q3 2023 and 2024, only steadying as BTC rallied. At the same time, BNB was negatively impacted by Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, resigning in November 2023. The Department of Justice also fined Binance with a $4.3 billion penalty as a settlement. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
DOT, the native currency of Polkadot, a smart contract platform, remains under pressure, posting sharp losses after soaring to an all-time high of around $55 in 2021. The coin is trading at about $6, volatile but up roughly 45% from 2022 lows, buoyed by the broader recovery across the crypto scene. Will DOT Break Above Immediate Resistance Levels? Despite DOT’s woes, one crypto trader, @Ashcryptoreal, is bullish on the coin’s prospects, pointing to the eventual implementation of Polkadot 2.0, a critical update for the cross-chain network. Taking to X on November 27, the crypto trader believes that Polkadot 2.0 will fix present issues plaguing the smart contract platform. Specifically, Polkadot 2.0 represents an overhaul set to introduce several enhancements that could, if executed as stated, propel DOT above current resistance levels. With rising DOT demand, the coin, and by extension, the platform, could soar, rising to its former glory as one of the leading blockchains with dense user activity. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Burn Rate Skyrockets Close To 500,000% in 24 Hours Looking at price action, DOT is moving within a broad horizontal range with caps at around $3.5 and $7.5. Despite the recent spike, which saw the coin roar by 45%, prices are moving inside the bull bar of early November. Based on this, there must be a sharp expansion from spot levels above $5.6 with rising trading volumes for buyers to be in charge. Even so, the current formation still favors buyers. What’s The Big Deal About Polkadot 2.0 Polkadot 2.0 overhauls certain features as it is currently in the network. However, most importantly, analysts observe that proposed changes could enhance the network’s capabilities and attract more developers. After the update, Polkadot will migrate from the dynamic block space allocation system, allowing developers to purchase block space as needed, either in bulk or individually. This flexibility could make the network more appealing to various projects. Additionally, Polkadot 2.0 will introduce elastic cores, enabling the network to adapt to varying computing demands depending on use. This adaptability may make the network more efficient. Moreover, it adapts to the diverse needs of developers. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts 4400% XRP Price Surge To $27, Here’s When The concept of coretime, which measures computing resource demands, will be a notable addition to Polkadot 2.0. Like in EOS, resources in “core time” will be purchased through auctions or pay-as-you-go basis, allowing developers more control. Analysts expect these changes to increase the demand for DOT since the coin serves as a medium of exchange. All on-chain transactions are settled in DOT. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
TrueUSD (TUSD), a stablecoin with a market cap exceeding $3.1 billion, appears “shaky” and briefly depegged on November 22, dropping to as low as $0.9976 before restoring its peg. The temporary depeg was attributed to a deluge of selling orders, according to Kaiko, a blockchain analytics firm. TUSD Briefly Depegs, Large Selling Orders Rolling Through Riyad Carey, a researcher at Kaiko, noted that large sell orders, including one for $3 million, triggered the turbulence that caused the stablecoin’s price to dip below the dollar peg. This brief deviation resulted in users who redeemed TUSD receiving less USD. Ideally, any redemption of a fiat-backed stablecoin should result in a 1:1 reception of the collateral. The incident highlights the potential impact of large order blocks on liquidity and the potential for slippage. TUSD, theoretically backed by USD and issued by TrustToken, is popular in Binance, an exchange that delisted USDC and 2023. Because of this limitation, TUSD is one of the most liquid stablecoins paired with leading coins like Bitcoin (BTC). However, despite its popularity, it trails Tether (USDT), the world’s largest stablecoin by market cap. The TEURO Mystery This depegging occurred a few weeks after tough security questions were raised about TUSD. In mid-October, the minter was forced to disclaim TEURO, a token deployed from the same address, suggesting that private keys associated with TUSD may have been compromised. Related Reading: Circle And SBI Holdings Partnership To Boost USDC In Japan Curiously, funds tied to TEURO, the fake token, were also linked to the deployment of TCNY, another fake token unaffiliated with TrueUSD. Following these incidents, the community began raising questions about the security of the stablecoin and, more importantly, its underlying infrastructure. This was expected, considering that a centralized entity issues TUSD though all transactions are on-chain. Despite these challenges, TrueUSD maintains that its smart contracts are secure. The company emphasizes that it has gained ownership of the TUSD minting contract since the end of 2020. Related Reading: Analyst Sets $47,000 Target For Bitcoin If This Happens In early May 2023, TUSD depegged, rising to as high as $1.20 on multiple exchanges, particularly on Binance. This was attributed to an increase in activity on the SUI farming pool. Still, this is not the first time popular stablecoins have depegged. In March 2023, USDC and DAI, two of the world’s largest stablecoins, depegged, leading to widespread fear in the market. However, the team restored parity. Moreover, to improve confidence, stablecoin issuers regularly publish attestation reports. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
An active crypto whale has been steadily accumulating UNI, the native token to Uniswap, one of the world’s most active decentralized exchanges (DEXes). This development suggests that the address believes the token may edge higher in the coming trading days or weeks, extending gains after a sharp leg up on November 22 when UNI soared, breaking above key resistance levels. Whale Loading Up More UNI, Back To $10? According to recent Lookonchain data, an Ethereum address, stevu.eth, withdrew 311,302 UNI worth $1.93 million from Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, on November 25, pushing its total UNI holdings to 511,301 UNI, or $3.18 million. Related Reading: Cosmos Co-Founder’s Controversial Proposal Triggers 11% Plunge In ATOM Notably, this acquisition follows a withdrawal of 500,545 UNI ($2.42 million) from OKX on June 29, which stevu.eth deposited to Binance and OKX in August. However, the recent accumulative behavior on November 25 indicates that the whale is bullish on UNI, possibly expecting prices to float back to $10, a level last seen in August 2022. Presently, UNI is trading within a bullish breakout formation, looking at the performance in the daily chart. Changing hands at around $6.2 when writing on November 27, the token is up approximately 60% from October lows. Even with the confidence, UNI prices have been mostly consolidating, moving horizontally at spot rates. If buyers press on, a close above $6.6 with expanding volumes might confirm buyers of November 22. In that case, the resulting momentum might form the base for another leg up, pushing the token to August 22 highs of around $10. Uniswap v4 Expectations The whale’s confidence in UNI aligns with the ongoing development of Uniswap v4, an upgrade that will significantly enhance the DEX. In this update scheduled for a tentative period in 2024, Uniswap Labs, the team behind Uniswap, is introducing a concept called “hooks.” Hooks are contracts that can be executed at various stages of a pool’s lifecycle. According to the team, Hooks, which act as more plugins, provide increased flexibility and customization for Uniswap’s liquidity pools. As such, it would be possible for users to enable features like dynamic fees, refined market making, and even advanced orders executed on-chain. Related Reading: Renowned Finance Author Says Buy Bitcoin Now Before It’s Too Late, Here’s Why What’s notable about Uniswap v4 is the introduction of “singleton” contract architecture. All Uniswap liquidity pools will reside inside a single, smart contract in this design change. The team notes that this can significantly reduce gas costs and, more importantly, reduce routing efficiency across numerous pools. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
According to Lookonchain data, Sigil, a fund in Gibraltar, has exited BLUR, one of this week’s top-performing tokens, for Lido DAO’s LDO, and IMX, the native token Immutable X–a layer-2 scaling solution primarily dedicated to NFT trading. Sigil Fund Sells BLUR For IMX And LDO On November 24, Lookonchain, a crypto analytics platform, noted that Sigil sold 1.55 million BLUR for 807,799 IMX, worth roughly $1.14 million, and 210,905 LDO, trading at $540,000, at spot rates. The exchange was made via multiple transactions and done on-chain. The swap comes roughly three days after Sigil withdrew 3.1 BLUR from OKX, a cryptocurrency exchange. Surprisingly, the fund is exiting BLUR when the token has dominated performance in the last few trading days. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Offers Perspective On Legal Fallout With The SEC To quantify, the token has more than doubled this week alone, surging to register new H2 2023 highs above $0.60. BLUR is already up 330% from its 2023 lows and continues to edge higher on rising trading volume. The Gibraltar-based crypto investment fund’s rotation from BLUR into core governance tokens of Lido DAO and Immutable X comes when there is FOMO around the 300 million BLUR airdrop in Season 2. Still, it is not immediately clear what might have advised the fund to exit BLUR–and not simply ride the current ride–for LDO and IMX. In retrospect, the shift could be an endorsement of decentralized finance’s (DeFi) resilience and inherent growth prospects. The rotation of funds into DeFi tokens could also signify a focus on backing decentralized ecosystem building rather than speculative NFT mania, as is currently the case with BLUR, which is rapidly rising, spurred by the Season 2 airdrop. LDO and IMX Are Key For DeFi And NFT As of November 2023, Lido DAO and Immutable X are some of the core platforms driving crypto and DeFi. Lido DAO plays a crucial role in Ethereum staking, while Immutable X offers a secure NFT trading infrastructure. Though recent troubles at FTX and other CeFi actors like FTX’s partner, Alameda Research, continue to cap upsides, Sigil’s allocation change is an endorsement for DeFi. Related Reading: LooksRare’s LOOKS Ready To Melt Faces: Analyst Predicts 10000% Surge Above $5.2 In the future, it is not immediately clear whether LDO and IMX prices will edge higher. For now, it remains on an uptrend but is generally volatile and not galloping higher like BLUR. The token is up 80% from October 2023 lows at press time. Meanwhile, IMX is extending gains at 2023 highs, looking at price action in the daily chart. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
Ethereum (ETH) continues to absorb Bitcoin (BTC) selling pressure in November, looking at price action when writing on November 24. In the daily chart, ETH bulls have the upper hand, adding roughly 9% versus BTC from October lows. Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin In November ETH buyers are firm, with price action still confined inside the conspicuous bullish engulfing bar of November 9. Despite bears forcing prices lower in the second week of November, the failure of BTC bulls to reverse all losses suggests that ETH buyers are still in command. If anything, prices may rise in the days ahead, reversing losses of the better part of 2022 when Bitcoin, buoyed by a crash in the altcoin scene, forced capital to the world’s most valuable currency. With Ethereum being resilient, reading from its performance in the ETH/BTC chart, hints suggest that the altcoin season could be in the early stages. Should that be the case, it will be a reprieve for ETH and other altcoins, including Cardano (ADA). Related Reading: Will Recent Binance Events Trigger This Historical Bitcoin Bull Run Signal? Following the dip in 2022, most altcoins capitulated, with most falling by over 80% from 2021 peaks as the crypto winter progressed, freezing gains. The situation took a turn south in 2023 when regulators continued with their enforcement actions against CeFi facilitators, mostly exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Their decision negatively impacted liquidity, as evidenced in other trending altcoins like Solana (SOL). ETH remains relatively firm at spot rates versus BTC, extending gains in late November. This could indicate that demand is beginning to pivot toward altcoins, with ETH, the most liquid of them all, leading the way. Since other altcoins have relatively thinner liquidity, they tend to recover faster but generally align with ETH. If the ETH revival is sustained, reading from the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, the leg up might also be accelerated by several macro tailwinds. BlackRock Applies For Spot Ethereum ETF, Will ETH Reach $26,800? In November, BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, filed for a spot Ethereum ETF. It comes when the broader crypto market expects the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the country. This application signals that BlackRock is confident about Ethereum’s investment products. Related Reading: Market Watch: These 5 Altcoins Are Poised For Breakouts, Says Crypto Expert Additionally, the on-chain analytics platform, Token Terminal, recently issued a bold report forecasting ETH to reach $36,800 by 2030. Token Terminal expects Ethereum to process over $14 trillion of the finance industry’s value in the next seven years. Ethereum would likely dominate at this pace, driven by sharp growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) and other crypto sub-sectors. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
Taking to X on November 22, crypto chartist @MortensenBach presented a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), predicting that not only will the coin breeze past $70,000 in the coming months, but it will set a new all-time high, fanning demand for stocks of Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital, and the rest. Bitcoin Trading Above The 20-Period MA In The Monthly Chart The chartist pointed to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to launch parabolic advances following decisive breaks above its 20-month simple moving average (20 SMA) in the monthly chart. As of late November 2023, Bitcoin has been firm. As evidenced in the monthly chart, buyers build on gains recorded in October when prices shook off losses and increased. This upswing was triggered by broader market optimism, which supported crypto prices. With prices now trending firmly above the dynamic reaction line in the monthly chart, the trader believes a bull market is on the cards, and Bitcoin is set for more gains in the coming sessions. Besides the break above the 20-month MA, the analyst notes a growing bullish momentum, according to MACD, a technical indicator. Related Reading: HTX Recommence Operations After Temporary Halt Due to Hack Still, it should be noted that, despite the analyst’s optimism, technical indicators in use, the MACD and MA, lag. Accordingly, there is no guarantee that prices will edge higher, rising from spot levels to nearly double above $70,000 in 2024 and months ahead. As of November 23, BTC prices are firm above $37,000 and more than 2X from November 2022 lows when prices plunged below $16,000. Moreover, it is yet to be seen how stocks of Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Blockchain will perform in the next stage after halving. However, historical performances show their stock tends to rally in lockstep with spot BTC prices. Whales Are Accumulating, Will BTC Surge? Even so, @MortensenBach’s preview analysis ties closely to on-chain insights relayed by CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics platform. According to data, more whales are moving their BTC from exchanges in large tranches. With big players showing confidence and backing Bitcoin, it could suggest that they expect prices to edge higher. This outlook if further buoyed by developing fundamental factors, including regulatory action and general investor sentiment. Related Reading: FTX’s FTT Token Leads Market Gains With 55% Rally, What’s Driving It? Bitcoin prices shook off the effect of the United States Department of Justice’s ruling on Binance. Though prices slightly dipped below $37,000, bulls are back, and the coin is trending above $37,000. The market is tracking the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the country. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
Taking to X on November 22, one user, @kevinsekniqi, notes that the Avalanche C-Chain is burning roughly $12.65 of AVAX every second, a development that could be a massive boost for AVAX in the long term. The surge in AVAX burning on the C-Chain is primarily due to the launch of inscriptions, which permit storing data on the Avalanche’s C-Chain, pushing the number of AVAX being taken out of circulation. Avalanche Burning AVAX At Record Pace @kevinsekniqi estimates that if the burn rate is maintained at spot rates, it could see approximately $400 million of the coin taken away from circulation. This could be a significant figure supporting AVAX bulls long-term since reducing supply at constant demand would naturally lead to price gains. Related Reading: Panic At Binance Following CZ’s Departure? Analyzing 24-Hour Inflow and Outflow Trends The heightened activity in recent days stems from the over 2.3 million daily transactions tied to users creating and transferring “ASC-20” tokens to inscribe data permanently onto Avalanche’s C-Chain. On average, the Avalanche C-Chain processes around 450,000 transactions daily. However, this figure has been changing in recent days, reading from on-chain data. On-chain activity is up roughly 4X due to inscriptions, driving the network’s revenue as gauged by gas fees collected. Through inscriptions, new use cases, as demonstrated in Bitcoin, around provable ownership and identity have emerged. Since Avalanche is a public ledger maintained by distributed validators operating nodes, gas fees must be paid. Part of the gas is burnt as part of Avalanche’s structure. FTX Group Selling AVAX, Bulls Dominant It is not immediately clear how the spike in the number of inscriptions on the C-Chain will impact prices. Though more inscriptions could support bulls, other external market factors should be considered. Related Reading: Shibarium Transactions Spike 288%, But Why Is Shiba Inu Price Down Today? According to Scopescan data, FTX Group, a team tasked with managing FTX estate, recently sent 916,780 AVAX worth $20.7 million to Binance. Transfers to centralized exchanges are often interpreted as bearish. Following this, AVAX prices fell by 13% on November 21. Prices remain stable, and AVAX maintains an uptrend despite prices contracting this week. Looking at the developments in the daily chart, the coin roared 190% from October 2023 lows. It peaked at around $16 in November. At present, prices have cooled off, dropping by approximately 18%. Nonetheless, the uptrend remains. Any break above $16 could spur more activity, even lifting the coin towards August 2022 highs of around $30. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
A Binance critic, “Whale Wire,” on X, who also claims to be a crypto whale, has issued a bold prediction that BNB, the native currency of the BNB Chain and which is used to incentivize trading activity on Binance, could plunge 95% to under $5 in the coming months. Regarding Binance agreeing to pay $4 billion in fines related to legal settlements with U.S. regulators, Whale Wire argued that tighter oversight will supposedly “destroy Binance’s entire business model.” He further contended bankruptcy could be imminent as the effects of the BNB lead to a contagion. Will The BNB Price Flash Crash? However, while increasing regulatory oversight, wind-downs, and decreased risk tolerance among traders have impacted volumes, Binance remains the world’s largest crypto exchange by client count and still facilitates the most trading globally by a wide margin as of writing on November 22. Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Reached “Euphoria” Yet? What On-Chain Data Says For context and pulling data from CoinMarketCap (CMC), Binance continues to dominate spot crypto trading, generating over $14.7 billion in average trading volume, over 6X Coinbase, with $2.3 billion, and ahead by huge margins from Kraken, which draws 41.2 billion. The same trend can be observed in derivatives trading, where Binance leads ahead of OKX. BNB also remains firmly among the top 5 cryptos in the market cap. Besides USDT, BNB is the third largest coin by market cap, leading other altcoins, including XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). Related Reading: Ripple Integration With ISDA Ushers In $1.2 Quadrillion Market, Can XRP Breach $100? Besides its dominance, Binance has been given over a year to pay assessed fines. Meanwhile, its new CEO, Richard Teng, said the exchange will continue to enact compliance overhauls. At the same time, it is assuring clients that funds remain safe. Considering the exchange will continue operating both in the United States and globally, the transitional window offered by the DOJ could make its collapse, and that of BNB, unlikely. Binance Under Pressure, Trading Volume Falling Even so, factoring in dropping trading volume in 2023 and the impact of losing users, especially in areas Binance pulled out from, the resulting dip in revenue could, at the end of the day, apply downward pressures on BNB. Thus far, Binance sold its business in Russia while exiting Canada and the Netherlands. Presently, $200 remains a critical support level for BNB. Whether this line will be retested in the months ahead remains to be seen. Changing hands at around $230, BNB is technically in an uptrend in the shorter time frame. It is up 15% from October 2023 lows. However, it is still down 65% from 2021 peaks when it soared to around $670. Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
Decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on Ethereum is picking up momentum based mainly on how gas fees have been trending in the first three weeks of November, data from Kaiko shows. Even so, despite Uniswap (UNI) spearheading the revival, looking at the gas attributed to its activities over this period, UNI prices remain stagnant below $5.6, with bulls failing to edge higher, breaking to new 2023 highs.
Ethereum Gas Fees Rising, DeFi Revival?
According to Kaiko, a blockchain analytics platform, the average gas fees on Ethereum hit multi-month highs last week. The platform expressly notes that the primary driver has been Uniswap’s activities, reading from the rising transaction volumes from meme coins, including GROK. This, in turn, pushed block space demand higher, increasing gas fees.
Gas fees remain volatile but generally higher in the first three weeks of November. As of November 20, Ycharts data shows that the average cost of sending a transaction stood at 45.13 Gwei, nearly 100% from November 19, when it was at 24.84 Gwei. This is a significant jump from 17.66 Gwei in late October 2023.
Gas fees and how ETH and DeFi token prices react are directly correlated as DeFi and other on-chain activities like non-fungible token (NFT) minting and trading rise; gas fees usually expand in trending markets.
Accordingly, the recent expansion in gas fees could suggest that the markets could be preparing for a leg up, and tokens of critical protocols, including Uniswap or Aave, could benefit.
DeFi TVL Rising, But Uniswap Is Stuck Below $5.6
As of writing, the total value locked (TVL) across all DeFi protocols stands at over $46.6 billion as of November 21, according to DeFiLlama. This increase is nearly $5 billion more than in early November and up from $37 billion in mid-October.
Ethereum remains a choice platform for deploying DeFi apps despite the relatively gas fees pinned to mainnet scaling challenges. The pioneer smart contract blockchain manages $25.4 billion in TVL, whereas Uniswap is one of the largest protocols with $3.216 billion in TVL.
UNI prices are up 30% from mid-October when writing on November 21. However, bulls have been unable to break above the November highs at around $5.6. From the daily chart, trading volume, and thus participation, has been tapering even though prices have been edging higher.
This formation suggests that the uptrend was behind low momentum and sustainability. Technically, there could be more gains if there is a solid close above November highs with expanding volumes. In that case, UNI could expand, retesting 2023 highs of around $7.2.
The recent saga surrounding OpenAI and its co-founder Sam Altman has sparked a surge of interest in AI tokens, with total weekly trade volume surpassing $2 billion for the first time since March, fresh data from Kaiko, a blockchain analytics platform, shows.
According to statistics, WLD, the native token on Worldcoin, a project co-founded by Altman, and other tokens, including FET, the primary coin behind the AI-reliant blockchain, Fetch.ai, appear to be primary gainers. Even so, WLD prices remain below November 2023 lows when writing.
WLD Remains Volatile
Even so, looking at market data, the spike in crypto AI trading volume seems driven mainly by WLD activity. Looking at the project’s share, trading volume comprises over 33% of all related crypto AI trading volume.
While there is a noticeable spike in activity, it remains below the all-time high of above $4 billion in Q1 2023. Then, traders and investors were keen on AGIX, the SingularityNET token. However, over the months, Worldcoin has since taken over as investor interest shifted to WLD, evidenced by the gradual rise of trading volume.
Looking at WLD price action over the past three days, prices have been volatile, though trading volume has been mostly up from November 13. Following news of Altman’s removal as CEO of OpenAI, prices fell before slightly expanding with news of negotiations to return to the role, followed by his appointment to lead Microsoft’s AI team.
All these events have contributed to the market’s heightened interest in WLD. Accordingly, trading volume across the broader crypto AI scene stands above the $2 billion level for the first time since March.
The Sam Altman And OpenAI Drama Turns Attention To Worldcoin
Though there is no direct connection between OpenAI and Worldcoin, crypto participants focus on events at OpenAI and how the board handled Altman as a factor catalyzing WLD’s activity.
The general lack of clarity on why the board ousted Altman as CEO worsens the situation, sparking speculation that this could also impact WLD’s prices and how Worldcoin is governed, considering the former CEO is also behind the crypto AI project.
Looking at the co-founder’s previous role as the team leading Worldcoin’s developments, Altman also holds significant sway, contributing to discussions on how the government should regulate AI at the end of the day.
Altman’s influential role has impacted Worldcoin and its prices since the blockchain project aims to create a global identity system. Worldcoin’s operations would rely on AI, including fraud prevention, data analysis, verification, and more.
Ryan Sean Adams, a crypto investor and a vocal Ethereum supporter, notes that some ETH holders are panic selling and diversifying into layer-1 altcoins like Solana (SOL) or Cardano (ADA), primarily concerned that the coin may not outperform the market as it did in the last bull cycle when it soared to around $5,000.
Ethereum Holders Selling For High-Performing Altcoins
In an X post on November 16, Adams said price action, despite these actions, might rapidly change even if ETH is no longer a 20-100X coin in the eyes of venture capitalists. The investor compares the current trading atmosphere to 2020, months before the second most valuable coin turned higher, surging to record levels.
Presently, Ethereum is trading below the $2,000 round number, pulling back from a recent higher but remaining within a bullish formation. Still, it appears the community is dissatisfied with this performance, especially with competitors, primarily SOL and ADA posting impressive gains.
As of writing on November 16, SOL has not only reversed losses of November 2022 when FTX filed for bankruptcy in the United States but has comfortably surged past key resistance lines, registering new 2023 highs of around $67. To quantify, SOL is up by over 200%.
At the same time, Cardano is firm, adding roughly 70% from October 2023 lows, looking at price action in the daily chart. By October, ADA had discouragingly sunk to as low as $0.25. However, the stellar recovery at the tail end of October sparked demand for the coin, driving it to present levels.
Cardano has been slugging in recent months despite the continuous ecosystem developments, including the refinement of the network’s performance during the Basho stage. Several enhancements, including pipelining, have been introduced to make the network more scalable and secure. Still, this didn’t reflect in ADA’s price action until the recent spike in October.
ETH Remains A “Fantastic Asset” For Retail Investors
The difference in performance between Ethereum and competing altcoins, as price action reveals, could be due to project-related triggers but mainly the difference in market cap. Ethereum is the second most valuable project, only trailing Bitcoin, whose market cap is multiples higher than even the second largest smart contract platform by market cap, BNB Chain.
Subsequently, this makes ETH less volatile, forcing supporters, as Adam notes, to divest into other more volatile coins. These competing layer-1 altcoins have registered triple-digit gains in the last month alone. Nonetheless, even with ETH only adding 30% in the same period, Adams argues that the coin is a “fantastic asset” from a risk-adjusted basis for the average retail investor.
A crypto trader took to X on November 15, predicting that FET, the native currency of Fetch.ai, an AI-centric platform, could be aligning itself for a “green path,” resuming the uptrend of the past few weeks.
The analyst, @rektcapital, believes the recent price action on the weekly chart points to strength. Moreover, the possibility of FET bulls flowing back and driving prices above the immediate resistance level registered in early November remains elevated at spot rates.
FET Remains Bullish, Up 770% From 2022 Lows
Looking at the candlestick arrangement in the weekly chart, FET buyers have had the upper hand. To quantify, the coin is up 140% from July 2023 lows and may be preparing for even more upsides if prices break above $0.46 recorded in the first week of November. As it is, FET is up by over 770% from December 2022 lows when the coin plunged to as low as $0.0570.
From technical analysis, FET recovered from around $0.17, representing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the trading range established in the first half of 2023. FET prices may rise, building on the bullish engulfing bars of late October and early November 2023, breaking above $0.46. This expansion, in turn, may create the base for the next leg up to $0.60, marking 2023 highs.
Despite the current rally, whether FET prices will find the momentum to retest 2021 highs of $1.20 is still unclear. Even so, as FET expands, there is a notable change in participation levels, looking at trading volume, between 2023 and 2021.
Prices might be down 65% from the September 2021 peak, but associated trading volume is higher, suggesting more support. If trading volume is a leading indicator, it is highly likely that even if FET moves in a green path as @rektcapital predicts, the odds of the coin retesting 2023 and 2021 highs will be high and the uptrend possibly rapid.
Fetch.ai Building, Dominates Social Media Activity
In October, Fetch.ai launched DeltaV, an open platform allowing users to interact with Fetch.ai agents and services naturally and intuitively. With this solution, developers hope users will further explore the blockchain, utilizing its capabilities.
At the same time, Fetch.ai emerged as the leading crypto AI project by social media activity. With over 1,700 posts and over 409,000 interactions as of November 15, the platform is more popular than The Graph (GRT) and the Ocean Protocol (OCEAN).
FTT, the native token of the FTX ecosystem, rallied by 180% last week, emerging as one of the top performers. The rally, Kaiko, a blockchain analytics platform observes, was primarily due to comments by the stringent United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) leader that the FTX 2.0 relaunch is possible.
FTT Soaring On Hopes Of FTX Relaunching
In an X post on November 14, Kaiko also notes that related FTT trading volume soared, signaling possible accumulation by traders and believers of FTX. At spot rates, FTT trading volume, looking at how the token performs in Binance, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, remains elevated at November 2022 levels.
In November 2022, FTX, led by Sam Bankman-Fried, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection at the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Related Reading: BlackRock’s XRP ETF Filing, Everything You Need To Know
Before this bankruptcy filing, FTT, which served several purposes in the FTX ecosystem, acting as a governance token and providing access, plunged in early November following allegations that the exchange had misappropriated user funds. There was a significant collapse on November 8 when FTT fell by 90%, taking the coin from around $22 to as low as $2.
FTT is trading at around $3.22, up 232% from October 2023 lows, looking at the performance in the daily chart. As fundamental events around FTX unfold, FTT’s trading volume also rises.
Compliance With The Law Is Crucial: SEC Chairperson
There could be more gains for FTX in the days ahead should there be more solid news of an FTX 2.0 relaunch following Gary Gensler’s comments last week. Then, Gensler told CNBC that a revived FTX could see the light of day if only leaders taking over clearly understood existing laws.
The SEC chairperson’s comments follow speculations that the former New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) president, Tom Farley, is among the three bidders planning to buy FTX.
“If Tom or anybody else wanted to be in this field, I would say, ‘Do it within the law. Build investors’ trust in what you’re doing and ensure that you’re doing the proper disclosures — and also that you’re not commingling all these functions, trading against your customers. Or using their crypto assets for your purposes.”
A jury in early November found Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, guilty of all criminal charges, including wiring fraud and money laundering. Bankman-Fried is set for sentencing in March 2024.
Solana (SOL) has been soaring, looking at the performance in the daily chart. At spot rates, the coin is trading above $50, up 520% in the past year when it slipped below $8 following the collapse of FTX, a now-defunct crypto exchange, and Alameda Research, a trading wing linked with FTX and one of the leading crypto market makers.
Solana Blistering Rally At The Back Of Dropping Liquidity?
Though Solana is “blistering” and at new 2023 highs, Kaiko, a crypto analytics platform, is concerned about the disparity in liquidity in USD and “native unit” terms. Typically, the “native unit” refers to the base unit of account of any currency, in this case, SOL.
Native units can be used to measure market depth since it provides easier access for gauging the relative liquidity of the coin without the need to convert it to other denominations, like USD or BTC, for example.
As Kaiko notes on November 14, at a 1% market depth, Solana’s liquidity in USD terms is at the highest level since the collapse of FTX. However, looking at SOL’s liquidity through another lens, the coin is struggling. Using “native units” as a liquidity gauge, it is at the lowest point since the FTX collapse.
SOL Still Reeling From FTX Collapse, What Happens Next?
The collapse of FTX was critical not only for SOL and its native tokens but also for the broader crypto markets. Following the bankruptcy of the Sam Bankman Fried exchange in November 2022, SOL prices cratered as fear of contagion across the board also saw Bitcoin (BTC) prices shrink, failing at its perceived role as a safe haven.
By November 2022, Bitcoin had flash crashed below $16,000, with Solana dumping from highs of $220 to as low as $8. This contraction also saw crypto’s liquidity, which was more adverse in Solana.
Looking at how liquid SOL is in its native units, it is apparent that liquidity is yet to recover and might require more time despite the general optimism across Solana communities. According to Kaiko, it suggests that market makers are opting to maintain stable liquidity for SOL even with soaring prices in USD terms.
Presently, SOL prices are steady above $50 but maintain an uptrend versus the USD. There are a series of lower lows in lower time frames, early indicators that the upside momentum might be cooling off, and SOL traders possibly exiting their long positions. Even so, $38, marking November 2022 highs, is a vital reaction point for technical analysts.
Ethereum prices are firm at spot rates, still trading above the $2,000 level, and multiple other factors point to possible trend continuation.
According to Kaiko’s data on November 12, not only is the ETH-BTC ratio shifting and reversing after extended periods of lower lows, but also there is a notable uptick in trading volume with funding rates in crypto derivative platforms shifting from negative to positive, suggesting increasing demand.
Ethereum Breakout Above $2,000
As of writing on November 13, Ethereum is relatively firm and changing hands at around the $2,090 level. Despite the expected contraction in trading volume over the past couple of days following the rally on November 9, the uptrend remains in place.
So far, the immediate support level technical analysts are watching remain at $2,000, marking July 2023 highs. Conversely, the $2,100 zone, marking the April high, is a critical liquidation level that optimistic bulls must break for a buy trend continuation pattern.
As it is, traders are optimistic. However, whether the uptrend will continue depends primarily on trader sentiment and if existing fundamental factors might spark more demand, lifting ETH to new 2023 highs. Thus far, even though the general ETH support base remains upbeat, the coin, unlike Bitcoin (BTC), is struggling to break key resistance levels recorded in H1 2023, which is a concern.
ETHBTC Turning Bullish As Funding Rate Flips Positive
On the positive side, looking at the ETHBTC candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, the sharp reversal of ETH fortunes on November 9 could anchor the next leg up, signaling a new shift in a trend that favors Ethereum buyers. Looking at the ETHBTC formation, Bitcoin bulls have had the upper hand in 2023.
To quantify, BTC is up 33% versus ETH, with the climactic sell-off of October 23 pushing BTC to the highest point against the second most valuable coin in 2023. However, the sharp recovery on November 9 and the subsequent failure of BTC bulls to reverse losses suggest that ETH has the upper hand.
Thus far, ETHBTC prices are trending inside the November 9 bullish engulfing bar at the back of light trading volumes, a net positive for bullish ETH holders.
Following this surge, Kaiko notes that the funding rate of the ETHUSDT pair is positive, signaling increasing demand in the crypto derivatives scene. When funding rates turn positive from negative, it means “long” traders are paying “short” traders to keep their positions open. This development indicates that more traders are long ETH, expecting prices to rise in the sessions ahead.
All Aave v2 markets are now operational, the team behind the non-custodial liquidity protocol announced in a November 13 post on X. This a day after v3 markets were unfrozen following the approval from the community.
Aave is a platform where users can supply liquidity in exchange for rewards while borrowers are free to take loans while paying interest in a trustless environment.
Aave v2 Markets Unfrozen, Security Is “Non-Negotiable”
In the post, Aave said the security of the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol remains a “priority and is non-negotiable for the community.”
On November 4, Aave said they received a report “of an issue on a certain feature.” After being validated, the protocol decided to take a step and pause the operation of their v2 markets on Ethereum. At the same time, some v2 markets on Avalanche were frozen. Even so, the v2 markets on Polygon were unaffected.
Aave also froze operations on Aave v3 on Polygon, Arbitrum, and OP Mainnet. However, v3 markets on Ethereum, Base, and Metis were unaffected.
While Aave v2 and v3 markets were frozen, the protocol clarified that users supplying or borrowing affected assets could still withdraw and repay their positions but couldn’t supply or borrow more. With those markets unfrozen, they can now continue as it was before.
Will Bulls Ease Past $110?
The resumption of services, looking at the AAVE candlestick arrangements in the daily chart, has not impacted prices. However, the token is trading at around 2023 highs and remains within a bullish formation as optimistic traders expect the uptrend to continue.
Despite the uptrend, bulls have failed to break above the $110 resistance level. As it is, this reaction level marks August 2022 highs and has not been breached in the past 15 months.
The token has more than doubled at spot rates, rising from $50, a critical support level marking January and June 2023 lows. For trend continuation, there must be a solid breakout above $110 and the $60 range from where prices have been moving horizontally in a multi-month accumulation.
Still, it is unclear how the token will react in the days ahead and whether there will be more upside momentum as liquidity increases as activity resumes on Aave v2 markets.
According to DeFiLlama data, Aave is one of the largest DeFi protocols, with over $6 billion in total value locked (TVL). Most of these assets are locked in Ethereum, where over $5.1 billion of tokens are under management.
When Ethereum (ETH) exploded past $2,000 on November 9, Erik Smith, the Chief Investment Officer of 401 Capital, observed that the platform’s average daily revenue surged to the highest level in four months.
According to data, Ethereum generated $10 million in daily revenue, extending gains registered on the previous day and pushing the metric to the highest point since July.
Ethereum Prices Above $2,000, Revenue Rising In November
For now, ETH prices remain muted but are trading around November 9 highs and remain within a bullish formation backed by decent trading volumes. Prices are still trending above the $2,000 psychological support, a critical reaction level.
A look at the Ethereum candlestick arrangement in the daily chart shows that while there is a notable spike in daily revenue, prices are still below July 2023 highs. Then, the coin soared to as high as $2,100 before pulling back as the momentum triggered by the broader crypto’s expectation of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval faded. However, prices have since sharply recovered, adding roughly 40% from October lows and shaking off the weakness registered on August 17 when the coin plunged by 14%.
Token Terminal data shows that Ethereum’s daily revenue has steadily risen in the first ten days of November. Looking at trends, the average daily income has doubled from $5 million in the first five days of the month. Usually, an uptick in daily average revenue in a network points to increasing on-chain activity either through smart contract deployment or simple transfers, which necessitates the payment of gas fees.
Improving Scalability In The Long Term
How the widespread adoption of Ethereum layer-2 and sidechain scaling solutions will impact the network revenue is not immediately apparent. }
What’s clear is that the more protocols leverage the protocol, deploying multiple solutions, the more revenue the network will generate for validators and stakers. Staking rewards are drawn partly from transaction fees paid as gas, new issuance, and burned miner extractable value (MEV).
Still, the dollar value of ETH minted as revenue depends on spot rates. If the uptrend is sustained, this figure will continue expanding. Even so, there might be more demand for the network, which is still struggling to scale on-chain.
Ethereum 2.0 aims to resolve these challenges in the coming years by increasing the general throughput via solutions like Sharding. Sharding will split Ethereum into small but interconnected networks called shards. Each shard will independently process each set of transactions and maintain its state, allowing the mainnet to scale.
According to Token Unlocks, a platform that tracks upcoming unlocking events, 56% of all the OP token maximum supply is in the to-be-discussed (TBD) allocation, meaning the community is yet to vote and determine where these tokens will be assigned to in the coming weeks or months.
This news is a curious development, especially for OP Mainnet, the team behind one of the most popular Ethereum layer-2 scaling solutions, and OP token holders.
Billions Of OP Not Assigned
Token Unlocks notes that roughly 2.4 billion OP, representing 55% of the max supply, remains under the TBD allocation. So far, over 831 million OP, or slightly above 19% of the max supply, have been unlocked.
This revelation also comes when OP prices have been trending higher, breezing past crucial resistance levels. At spot rates, OP is changing hands above September and October highs, temporarily retesting October highs. The bull bar of November 10 anchors the current leg up since it was accompanied by relatively high trading volume.
Token Unlocks defines a TBD allocation as not assigned a release timing but will be subject to community voting. These tokens can be distributed for governance, Retroactive Public Goods Funding (RetroGPF), ecosystem funding, moved to advisers or partners, and much more.
RetroGPF is a funding mechanism that allows the protocol to support projects building solutions on its general-purpose layer-2 platform. Since it is retroactive, projects or developers don’t have to apply for funding in advance.
Usually, token unlocking releases coins initially locked or vested for a given time. Projects tend to employ this tactic to align the incentives of investors and that of the team. This also concurrently prevents early adopters from mass selling the coin, driving prices lower. Even so, since all specified unlocks are done publicly, transparency allows investors or traders to make informed decisions.
What Will Happen To OP Prices?
For the token’s Mainnet’s case, a big chunk of the max supply remains unassigned at spot rates, which is, as it is, supportive of prices. However, once these tokens are voted for, and the community decides the portion of the maximum supply that can, for instance, be distributed to advisers or used to fund ecosystem projects, then there is a tendency for prices to fall as the unlock date approaches.
According to L2Beat, OP Mainnet is the second largest layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum after Arbitrum One. OP Mainnet has a total value locked (TVL) of $3.39 billion, commanding a market share of 25%. Meanwhile, Base, a competitor backed by Coinbase, is third with a TVL of $600 million.
MATIC, the native token of Polygon, an Ethereum sidechain, is ripping higher, mirroring the general performance across the crypto scene, spearheaded by Bitcoin (BTC). As of November 9, MATIC is up roughly 5% in the past 24 hours and inching closer to July 23 highs, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart.
This upswing is at the back of rising trading volume and improving sentiment, which has seen the token expand 64% from October lows, a net positive for optimistic traders.
The 110 Million MATIC Grant
Looking at events in the past few trading days, the MATIC rally seems to have been catalyzed by Polygon Village’s recent announcement. The team said it plans to distribute 110 million MATIC to projects aiming to deploy decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and social media solutions on the sidechain.
Polygon said late-stage projects can receive direct grants of up to 2 million MATIC. Meanwhile, early-stage projects and startups, can apply via quadratic funding grants.
In this funding arrangement, the amount of MATIC sent to a project will directly depend on how popular the project is. Those that are popular among crypto holders will receive more funds. Still, it remains unclear how Polygon Labs will deal with bots when deciding how popular a given project is. Voting will be on-chain on Polygon, where MATIC will be the currency through which users can support their favorite projects.
Polygon Rising Stature: From POL To ZK-EVM
Over the years, Polygon has emerged as a popular scaling solution for Ethereum, looking at statistics and total value locked (TVL), especially in DeFi. The platform is compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). Accordingly, it allows protocols launching on its rails to easily connect with the mainnet without sacrificing security.
By connecting with Polygon, projects can operate in a highly scalable environment with relatively low fees. This feature allows intensive dapps, including social media platforms or decentralized exchanges (DEXes), to operate seamlessly.
Polygon is also transitioning and, subject to the community’s approval, will gradually replace MATIC with POL. This token will power the broader ecosystem, including supernets and layer-2 networks relaying on Polygon’s infrastructure. In late October, the POL contracts went live on the Ethereum mainnet as part of Polygon 2.0. This transition will see Polygon integrate zero-knowledge (ZK) technology into all its products.
Manta Network said it would retool and integrate Polygon’s Chain Development Kit (CDK) in mid-October. Doing this, the protocol migrated from the optimistic rollup it initially launched on. Using Polygon’s CDK, Manta integrates zk Rollup technology to settle transactions faster and confidentially.
Ryan Sean Adams, a vocal Ethereum commentator and crypto investor, is bullish on MATIC, the native token of Polygon. Taking to X on November 8, Adams said MATIC should be a top-10 crypto asset, adding that people are asleep on layer-2s.
Polygon (MATIC) Remains In An Uptrend
When writing on November 8, MATIC is among the top 15 most valuable coins by market cap. It also remains volatile, fluctuating, and moving up and down the market cap leaderboard rankings. Even so, considering its spot valuation exceeding $7.3 billion according to CoinMarketCap (CMC), a crypto tracker, MATIC remains relatively liquid with a broad user base.
Etherscan data on November 8 shows that there are 629,967 MATIC holders, down roughly 2%, but the number remains higher despite the contraction following the crypto winter of 2022, which spilled over to 2023.
As of November 8, MATIC is up 60% from September 2023 lows. According to CMC, the coin is also up 13% on the last trading day, pushing weekly gains to over 27%. Looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, the uptrend momentum is strong, and buyers appear to be doubling down.
Presently, bull bars are aligned along the upper BB, suggesting that there is intense buying pressure. At the same time, MATIC is within a bullish breakout formation, breezing past August highs.
Polygon, a sidechain, is among the many scaling solutions for Ethereum. The platform is compatible with Ethereum, allowing protocols to build on Polygon while enjoying the high activity and security of the first smart contract network. Polygon is also considered a layer-2, though it isn’t technically a layer-2 since it doesn’t depend on roll-ups like Arbitrum or OP Mainnet.
Time To Double Down On MATIC And Layer-2 Tokens
In Adams’ view, considering layer-2 tokens, including MATIC or ARB, at spot levels could translate to more gains in the next bull run. Nonetheless, it should be noted that MATIC, for instance, is down 72% from 2021 highs.
Moreover, the coin is trending inside June’s bear trade range. A comprehensive close above this level may signal the end of the bear run, possibly anchoring buyers targeting $1.5.
In late October, Polygon Labs officially launched the POL, a token that will prime Polygon 2.0, Ethereum, signaling the first steps to see MATIC gradually phased out. POL will serve more roles in Polygon 2.0, specifically powering an ecosystem of zero knowledge-based layer-2 chains using Polygon’s infrastructure. News of this smart contract launch seemed to have catalyzed demand, driving token prices higher.
Radiant Capital, a lending and borrowing protocol for users to borrow various assets across multiple chains, is rapidly closing in on Aave, looking at earnings data over the past six months.
Radiant Capital Earnings Rising: What’s The Trigger?
According to Token Terminal statistics on November 8 shared by one user on X, @Flowslikeosmo, Radiant Capital generated $5.8 million in revenue despite a relatively lower level of liquidity than Aave. @Flowslikeosmo, who claims to be a crypto researcher, said Radiant Capital’s earnings will likely explode in the upcoming sessions, especially once the 2.8 million ARB begins to be deployed.
Radiant Capital is a popular cross-chain decentralized money market through which users, regardless of their choice blockchain, can either lend their assets and earn passive income or borrow assets trustlessly. This way, the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol has opened up liquidity and boosted access to multiple blockchains.
To perform effectively, the protocol relies on LayerZero, which enables trustless and decentralized communication between blockchains using Oracle Relays, allowing platforms to be more interconnected and ledgers to be more interoperable. As Radiant Capital offers services, the DeFi protocol generates earnings or revenue primarily from fees.
The platform charges a protocol fee on all transactions. Earnings from this allow the team to be operational while allowing the protocol to generate revenue.
However, it should be noted only 15% of this fee is used to cover operational expenditure, with the rest redistributed to users as yield. Besides, there are fees billed to users taking flash loans. The protocol rewards providers with RDNT to incentivize liquidity provision, depending on the amount provided and the duration locked.
ARB Airdrop, Will RNDT Rally To New 2023 Highs?
Earnings generated depend on the activity level, directly influencing protocol fees accrued and the number of users taking flash loans. Following Radiant Capital’s recent announcement that it plans to airdrop 2 million ARB following the Arbitrum DAO‘s approval of a proposal first floated in late September, activity could skyrocket in the coming months, boosting earnings.
Moreover, the protocol’s liquidity is expected to increase with this approval. The ARB airdrop will be used to incentivize liquidity provision. Additionally, Radiant Capital will strike more partnerships, allowing it to expand to other chains, including Ethereum and Arbitrum.
According to Dune Analytics data, the number of RDNT holders continues to rise, mirroring its general price performance. Thus far, RDNT is up 40% from October lows. The immediate resistance level at $0.33 must be broken for the coin to rally, even registering new 2023 highs.
Solana (SOL) is one of the top performers, looking at price action in the weekly chart. According to Kaiko, SOL’s net buying, measured via cumulative volume delta (CVD), has been led by Coinbase, one of the most active cryptocurrency exchanges in the past few trading weeks. To illustrate, since October 18, the blockchain analytics platform notes that 2.2 million SOL have been purchased, an indicator of rising demand as the broader crypto market thaws.
Coinbase Leading The Solana Buying Wave
At over 2.2 million SOL purchased, Coinbase leads the wave of buying pressure. However, closely behind, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by client count, follows. There are around 2 million SOL bought through Binance from October 18, highlighting the role of the exchange in funneling liquidity to SOL. Even so, specific drivers forcing users to opt for Coinbase over Binance couldn’t be laid out.
While at it, there is rising demand for SOL on Kraken. Even so, demand for SOL has been fizzling on Bybit, Upbit, and OKX over the same period. It couldn’t be ascertained why the trajectory on these exchanges has been trending lower. However, what’s clear is that all of these exchanges allow derivatives trading of multiple assets, including SOL.
When writing on November 7, SOL is a top-10 coin by market cap. Perched at seventh in the leaderboard, Solana has flipped Cardano, Dogecoin, and Tron, cementing its position considering the over $7 billion gap between the seventh and eighth projects in the market cap ranking.
The CVD measures the difference between buying and selling volume over a period. The tool can be used to identify trends. When rising, the uptrend might continue while a falling CVD points otherwise.
SOL Trending At New 2023 Highs: Will The Uptrend Continue?
At spot levels, SOL is also changing hands at around $43, trending at around 2023 highs after breaking above the resistance level at $32 in late October. The uptrend could continue, considering the surging interest Solana continues to garner. This may push the coin 2X to $80, a critical resistance, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the weekly chart.
This demand is primarily because of improving investor confidence and Solana Labs’ decision to roll out new features and strike strategic partnerships, pulling more capital to SOL. Rising CVD could suggest that institutions might be eying SOL, aiming to ride the uptrend.
On November 6, the FTX estate transferred 750,000 SOL to Binance and Kraken. Although it couldn’t be verified that they sold, SOL prices retraced from recent highs. FTX, the defunct crypto exchange, controlled over $1.1 billion worth of SOL, and the estate manager has been gradually selling the coin and other crypto assets to repay creditors.
Looking at Kaiko’s data shared on November 7 by Dessislava Ianeva, a Research Analyst at the blockchain analyst firm, it is evident that altcoins market share versus Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising in the past four months, reaching a 4-month high, the highest level since July 2023.
The surge in market share can be attributed to multiple factors but primarily because of the upswing in Bitcoin prices, improving sentiment across the crypto market, and project-related developments that have attracted capital over the past few trading months.
Altcoins Market Share Rising Versus Bitcoin
Kaiko notes that the altcoins market share of the top 30 altcoins stands at 44%, an improvement over the past few trading months. This is a notable expansion considering that altcoin prices, including those of leading coins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and the rest posted sharp losses in 2022. Even though prices continued falling, losses were contained in 2023 but remain lower from 2021 peaks when asset prices surged to record lows.
Despite altcoins gnawing more market share from Bitcoin, the most valuable coin continues to enjoy multiple advantages, especially from a regulatory standpoint. For instance, the coin has been endorsed by regulators in the United States, Europe, and Canada.
In this line, complex derivatives products, including Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) and futures, are already listed in Canada, the United States, and some European countries. The spike at the end of July was partly because of the increasing confidence across crypto that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve the first Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
This confidence follows BlackRock’s decision to submit its Bitcoin ETF application. Due to their track record, market analysts elevated the odds of the strict agency to authorize the first spot in Bitcoin ETF.
Why Are Altcoins Like Ethereum, XRP, And Solana Rallying?
Presently, the upward momentum in Bitcoin has been shrinking but remains at around 2023 high on improving market sentiment. The slowdown in the uptrend coincides with rapidly shifting investor patterns, especially in Solana, XRP, and Ethereum.
To illustrate, the SEC’s decision to approve the launch of the Ethereum Futures product led to more interest in the project, directly supporting ETH prices. At the same time, Solana has been edging higher, even reversing post-FTX losses despite action by FTX estate managers.
There is more on-chain activity on Solana. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity on XRP has seen Ripple double down, striking more partners.
The adoption of Ethereum layer-2s is on the rise if Token Terminal data shared on November 6 is anything to go by. According to statistics from the blockchain analytics platform shared by Erik Smith, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of 401 Financial, the average active addresses over the past three months has exceeded 10 million, a nearly 2X expansion from early 2023.
Ethereum Layer-2s Finding More Adoption
Looking at the chart, Polygon, an Ethereum sidechain, remains the most popular. At the same time, Arbitrum and OP Mainnet, which are common layer-2s adopting the roll-up technology, are actively being used.
Even so, OP Mainnet’s share is gradually dropping. Base, a layer-2 backed by Coinbase, and StarkNet are also finding adoption, expanding their share over the past three months.
In crypto, active addresses refer to the number of unique wallet addresses (sending and receiving) that have interacted with the blockchain, in this case, Ethereum, over a given period.
An uptick or contraction in the number of active addresses can be used to measure sentiment and the level of uptake. In bear markets, active addresses tend to drop, only rising when bulls flow in, pointing to a possible scramble for arising opportunities.
The recent uptrend coincides with the rapid expansion of leading crypto prices. Ethereum (ETH) prices are inching closer to the $1,870 resistance level, with a breakout above this line a potential trigger for a leg up that might see the coin retest $2,100 and even register new 2023 highs.
Usually, rising crypto prices tend to revive demand as the number of active addresses and, in some instances, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi), and more.
What Will Happen To Gas Fees?
Ethereum is the world’s most active smart contract platform, stretching its dominance mainly because of its first-mover advantage. The blockchain anchors more DeFi, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and gaming activity. Deploying protocols, depending on their objectives, can either directly launch on the mainnet or layer-2s.
The mainnet is directly secured by validators, while layer-2 solutions depend on the mainnet for security but often re-route transactions off-chain. In this arrangement, more transactions can be processed cheaply and efficiently, relieving the mainnet.
Though the Ethereum base layer is secure, its peak transaction throughput remains relatively lower at around 15 TPS. This means during peak demand, gas fees tend to be higher, impacting user demand.
Still, Ethereum gas fees remain at a multi-year low at around 23 Gwei, according to trackers, as seen on the chart below. This is down from 240 Gwei recorded in February 2021 when crypto assets rapidly rose.
For now, whether gas fees will increase as the market recovers is yet to be seen. What’s evident is that as users opt for layer-2s, the mainnet will likely be relieved, keeping gas fee fluctuation low.
FTM, the native currency of the Fantom ecosystem, might be the next coin to follow and perhaps outperform Solana (SOL). This optimistic preview is by one technical analyst, “Magnate,” who, in an X post on October 3, said traders who missed the SOL rally may have a chance with FTM.
Solana Is Exploding: Reverses Post-FTX Losses
At press time, SOL is trading at new 2023 highs and has reversed all post-FTX losses. Changing hands at $39 as of writing on November 3, the SOL uptrend remains, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. Specifically, SOL is up 125% from September lows and 190% from June 2023 highs.
At this pace, SOL has outpaced Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), two of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies. This is despite Bitcoin, buoyed by the broader crypto’s optimism of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the coming weeks. The general confidence is despite the SEC laying out a potential timeframe for when this product will go live.
Looking at the SOL daily chart, primary support is around the November 2022 high at around $36–a key reaction line traders are closely monitoring. As it is, there has been a cool-off, but traders are confident of a pullback, pushing the coin back higher in a bullish breakout formation.
Is Fantom (FTM) Preparing For A 100% Surge?
Magnate, sharing the daily and weekly charts of FTM, noted that the coin appears to be bouncing off a critical support zone. In the weekly chart, the uptrend is defined. FTM is picking momentum, edging higher as confidence, partly due to fundamental events and the recovery across the board, is changing sentiment, propping bulls.
From the daily chart, FTM found support at 2022 lows before edging higher to spot rates. This leg up has catalyzed demand, lifting the coin 35% from October lows. Still, FTM is down approximately 65% from February 2023 highs.
Even so, only time will tell if FTM will track SOL, lifting off by over 100%, as the technical analyst predicts. Although there have been some challenges, there are also some positive developments taking place. One such development is that Messari, an analytics platform, recently observed a surge in Fantom’s on-chain activity.
According to their findings, the average number of new addresses added to the network daily increased by 106% in the last quarter. In comparison, the average number of active addresses per day rose by 3% in the same period.
Celestia, the modular blockchain that claims to be scalable without sacrificing security, launched in late October 2023 after weeks of anticipation from the broader crypto community. However, hours after launching and TIA listing on multiple exchanges, including OKX and KuCoin, the coin is struggling to match the initial enthusiasm.
TIA Is Dropping, Blame The Celestia Airdrop?
The coin is down 20% from recent highs and risks plunging some more. Reportedly, some airdrop recipients, chiefly Sybil groups, are liquidating the coin via mainstream exchanges. This is heaping more pressure on bulls.
These recipients, according to Celestia, were early adopters of the project. In total, the platform allocated 60 million TIA for the airdrop, representing 6% of the total supply.
Usually, crypto projects distribute free tokens in an airdrop as a strategy to raise awareness. To receive tokens, interested users must provide their wallet addresses and actively participate as a developer or a platform user. In Celestia’s case, for example, the network distributed TIA, to among others, developers.
Related Reading: Solana Whales Deposit To Exchanges, Selloff Incoming?
In total, 191,391 addresses are set to receive TIA from the airdrop. However, according to a recent report, at least 20% of these addresses are controlled by Sybil groups. By November 1, 138,981 addresses, representing 72% of all accounts, had already claimed roughly 44 million TIA out of the 60 million set aside for the airdrop.
Sybil Group Operators Reaping Big, Dumping TIA
That Sybil groups manipulated their way and received TIA could, according to researchers, suppress prices going forward. Technically, a Sybil group of malicious actors who create multiple fake identities aiming to take control of a given network, in this case, Celestia, or even destabilize the airdrop. Through the numerous fake identities created to receive the TIA airdrop, researchers discovered that Sybil group operators deposited to a single address before moving them to a crypto exchange.
The report notes that large-scale Sybil groups, which operate over 20 deposit addresses, received 5.22 million TIA. Meanwhile, large Sybil groups operating between five to 20 addresses ended up with 6.65 million TIA. At the same time, 51,494 addresses were suspected to be part of the Sybil group ring that received 17.05 million TIA.
Out of this, researchers discovered that one profitable Sybil group, operating 300 airdrop addresses, received 77,391 TIA. Coins deposited to the 300 airdrop addresses were consolidated to one address and sent to OKX. Surprisingly, each of the 300 addresses ended up with 258 TIA, meaning Celestia didn’t notice they were associated and possibly operated by one entity.
Raoul Pal, the CEO and founder of Real Vision, thinks the Ethereum chart is “gorgeous” and expects the coin to increase in the months ahead. Though it is unclear when the coin will break from the current consolidation and extend gains of the recent few weeks, the endorsement from the founder can be bullish for the coin.
Ethereum Is Bullish, What’s Next?
Presently, ETH is changing hands at around $1,800 but remains below the psychological $2,000 level and July 2023 highs of approximately $2,100. The failure of ETH to break above immediate resistance lines can be a concern, considering the exemplary performance of Bitcoin (BTC) in the past few weeks.
At press time, BTC is trading near 2023 highs after easing past July 2023 highs in late October 2023. The surge of Bitcoin prices shifted sentiment, forcing capital back into crypto, which had been relatively restive, reeling from the brutal effects of last year’s crypto winter, which spilled to 2023.
Looking at the performance in the daily chart, ETH is up about 20% from October 2023 lows. Technically, the path of least resistance appears northwards, syncing with the general crypto trend whose trajectory seems reliant on Bitcoin.
As it is, the immediate resistance is around the $2,000 and $2,100 zone. If bulls build on the current momentum as Pal expects, breaking from the consolidation, ETH could surge to March 2022 highs of around $3,500. However, the leg up from spot rates largely depends on the strength of the breakout, a metric gauged by the trading volume.
A high volume breakout, similar to the one recorded in the BTCUSDT when it broke above $32,000, may easily anchor optimistic buyers angling for a near 100% rally in the coming sessions.
Ethereum Futures ETFs Are Live, But SEC Is Mum On ETH’s Status
Though Pal is bullish, the founder didn’t specify the exact trigger that may lift the second most valuable coin to new levels, justifying why the ETHUSDT chart at the spot level is “gorgeous.” Still, the community is overly bullish because the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved the first Ethereum Futures Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
These products provide a new and regulated way for investors to gain exposure to ETH. Over time, this may attract institutional investors, which may drive prices higher.
Though the SEC has yet to publicly declare ETH is a commodity like Bitcoin, their approval of Ethereum Futures ETFs as the community awaits the eventual authorization of the first spot Bitcoin ETF suggests that the regulator could be comfortable with ETH.
Citing Messari data, one user on X, @JaromirTesar, notes that despite the effects of the crypto bear market, which has adversely affected valuation and activity, there are more Cardano (ADA) holders willing to stake their assets, helping secure the network and earn staking rewards at the same time.
More Delegators Staking ADA, Confidence Remains High
Sharing a screenshot on November 1, the user notes that roughly 250 ADA holders have opted to stake their coins daily for the past year. By the end of Q3 2023, there were 1.31 million delegators, up from 1.22 million recorded around the same time last year. This means that despite the harsh crypto market conditions, ADA holders seem to have been unfazed and choose to lock their coins instead of exiting for other coins like Bitcoin (BTC) or stablecoins, including USDT.
Cardano uses the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, which the team, Input Output Global (IOG), claims to be more scalable and efficient than other consensus systems, including Bitcoin’s proof-of-work (PoW). In Cardano, Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) are tasked with validating a block of ADA transactions where they receive rewards after every epoch.
SPOs eradicate the need for miners. Since anyone with a Cardano wallet can participate in the consensus process, the platform is thought to be more decentralized. ADA holders who choose not to run SPOs can delegate their coins through their favorite validator and receive staking rewards.
More Stakers Engaging, What Happens To Price Next?
As of November 1, there are 2,888 SPOs with stake, meaning they manage ADA from delegators. Meanwhile, there were 1.31 million unique delegators by the end of Q3 2023, an increase from the previous year.
In total, 65.33% of all ADA is engaged, actively participating in consensus and helping keep the network decentralized. Even so, this is down from 71.57% recorded in Q3 2023. The active stake translates to 22.9 billion ADA, down from 25 billion in Q3 2023. According to trackers, there are 35.2 billion ADA in circulation.
Despite the confidence among ADA holders, prices are relatively subdued. The coin is still trending below July 2023 highs of around $0.37. Even so, prices have been on an uptrend, breaking above the $0.27 high of October.
A close above $0.40 could open up ADA for more gains towards 2023 highs of around $0.46. Conversely, any sell-off from spot rates may push the coin closer to 2023 lows of $0.24.