Arbitrum price soars after DeFi whale address resumes ARB accumulation

On June 2, the price of Arbitrum jumped alongside the top-ranking cryptocurrencies after the United States Senate voted to raise the debt limit.

Why is the ARB price up today?

The price of Arbitrum (ARB) rose 9% to an intraday high of $1.25, beating the crypto market’s total overall gains of 1.5% in the same period.

ARB/USDT vs. total daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Arbitrum’s outperformance coincided with some strange buying activity associated with popular trader Andrew Kang’s crypto addresses.

Notably, on June 2, the Mechanism Capital co-founder deposited $1 million worth of stablecoins into Arbitrum pools and spent over 20% of it buying RDNT, the native token of decentralized finance lending platform Radiant Capital.

Andrew Kang’s crypto activity snapped on June 2. Source: Lookonchain

Later, Kang exchanged his newly bought and existing RDNT reserves for $867,000 worth of ARB. Then, he deposited the proceeds to Radiant Capital to borrow Circle’s USD Coin (USDC), according to data resource Lookonchain.

The platform noted:

“Seems like Andrew Kang is using leverage to go long $ARB on @RDNTCapital. Buy $ARB → Deposit $ARB → Borrow $USDC → Buy $ARB.”

Is the ARB rally sustainable?

Lookonchain revealed that an anonymous whale deposited $1.5 million worth of ARB to the OKX exchange, simultaneous to Kang’s abovementioned transfers.

Investors deposit tokens to crypto exchanges typically for selling. That raises ARB’s pullback possibilities in the coming days if its demand drops. Interestingly, the token’s technical setup on the daily chart suggests the same.

Related: Arbitrum-based Jimbos Protocol hacked, losing $7.5M in Ether

Notably, ARB has printed what appears to be a bear flag, confirmed by the price consolidating between two rising, parallel trendlines, after a strong move downward. As a rule, a bear flag resolves after the price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.

ARB/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

That puts ARB on the road to $0.95 in June, down circa 20% from current price levels.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the flag’s upper trendline will likely invalidate the bearish outlook, setting the Arbitrum token on the course toward $1.35, a resistance level from the March to May 2023 session.

PepeCoin (PEPE) price action points to a potential 70% drop

Pepe (PEPE) price has dropped by more than 70% three weeks after establishing its record high of $0.00000449. And the memecoin could fall even more in the coming days, according to a mix of technical and fundamental indicators.

PEPE charts flash a classic bearish reversal pattern

From a technical standpoint, the price of PEPE could drop sharply from its current levels. At the core of this bearish outlook lies the classic head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern.

Analysts who use technical analysi view the H&S pattern as a bearish reversal indicator for the unversed. It forms when the price forms three peaks atop a common neckline support; the middle peak, called “head,” is higher than the other two, called the “left shoulder” and “right shoulder.”

Head-and-shoulder breakdown illustrated. Source: Forex Academy

The H&S pattern resolves after the price breaks below its neckline. Meanwhile, as a rule of technical analysis, traders measure the pattern’s downside target by adding the maximum distance between the head and neckline to the breakdown point.

On May 22, PEPE broke below its H&S neckline near $0.00000156. That puts its downside target near $0.00000041 in June, down around 70% from current price levels.

PEPE/USDT four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the H&S breakdown could exhaust midway as PEPE tests $0.00000082 for a rebound in June. This level, down about 30% from current price levels, served as support in early May; it further coincides with PEPE’s 0.786 Fib line.

On the other hand, the breakdown scenario will risk invalidation if the PEPE price reclaims the H&S neckline as support.

Will existing PEPE holders dump?

Despite its recent losses, PEPE still trades 4,000% higher when measured from its exchange debut price of $0.00000044. As a result, more price declines could prompt existing PEPE holders to lock their profits, thus exacerbating the bearish bias.

Related: How to benefit from Bitcoin volatility with market analysis and trading bots

The concerns arise if one tracks PEPE’s top-fifteen high-yielding addresses. Almost all the entities have reduced their PEPE holdings in recent weeks, with some even dumping their entire stash to secure early profits.

Top 15 Pepe addresses with highest earnings and returns. Source: Wulgy/Dune Analytics

At the same time, the number of PEPE’s daily holders has flatlined since May 5, suggesting an absence of unique users entering the network.

PEPE daily holders count. Source: Wulgy/Dune Analytics

That has translated into lower trading volumes across crypto exchanges, serving another bearish cue to existing token holders.

PEPE hourly volumes. Source: Wulgy/Dune Analytics

PEPE could duck the bearish outlook in the event of a broader crypto uptrend, led by potential rallies in the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) markets. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues with its sideways BTC price action under $27,000 on May 22 as the bulls and bears find it hard to break the stalemate.

Which way Bitcoin? 

Notably, BTC price has fluctuated inside a narrowing ascending triangle range since May 11, defined by a horizontal resistance around $27,500 and a rising trendline support currently near $26,890.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

On May 22, Bitcoin dropped below the support trendline to around $26,550 but recovered quickly afterward to $26,900 — a bullish rejection. Meanwhile, the volumes were relatively lower, suggesting fewer traders participated in the intraday dump-and-pump move.

Overall, these technicals illustrate an ongoing bias conflict among traders. In other words, they are unsure about the direction of Bitcoin’s next price trend with the same amount of buyers and sellers — something that derivatives are also hinting at

Why is BTC price not moving?

Flat price action in the Bitcoin market can precede periods of extreme price volatility, triggered by big events.

For instance, Bitcoin fluctuated in the $16,000-17,500 range between Nov. 9, 2022, and Jan. 10. 2023, right in the aftermath of the FTX crypto exchange’s collapse. The price attempted to break above and below the range on some days but failed to establish a recovery trend.

The market witnessed a similar flat trend after the sharp BTC price decline led by the collapse of Terra in May 2022. Notably, BTC/USD traded inside the $28,000-30,000 range for almost a month before entering a decisive breakdown stage.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s flat trajectory in May 2023 has followed the U.S. banking crisis rally two months ago with numerous failed attempts to cross above $30,000, a psychological resistance level.

In other words, Bitcoin traders are waiting for a potential market trigger once again that could decisively push BTC price in either direction.

Related: How do the Fed’s interest rates impact the crypto market?

One major potential event will be the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates next month.

Currently, the conflicting outlook on raising interest rates is likely the main factor behind the sideways action of the stocks, including risk assets and cryptocurrencies. In fact, BTC price has seen one of its least-volatile periods since April, historic volatility data shows.

Bitcoin 30-day price volatility after influential events. Source:

What’s next for BTC price in the short term?

Technicals meanwhile show that a potential breakout above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) around $27,580 is in play.

If this happens, BTC price may once again retest the important $30,000-resistance level, where a rejection will be highly-probable upon first attempt. 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a pullback from the 50-day EMA would put BTC price en route toward the next big support level for a potential bounce at its 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $25,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price risk? US debt deal to trigger $1T liquidity crunch, analyst warns

Bitcoin (BTC) stares at potential losses heading into the third-quarter of 2023 after U.S. lawmakers will likely reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

A $1 trillion liquidity hole ahead

Raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. Treasury could issue new bonds to raise cash to meet its previous obligations.

As a result, the cash pile at the Treasury General Account could increase from $95 billion in May to $550 billion by June and to $600 billion in the three months afterward, according to the department’s recent estimates.

U.S. debt limit increases over the years. Source: Bloomberg

Ari Bergmann, the founder of risk management firm Penso Advisors, estimates that the Treasury will cross $1 trillion by the end of Q3, 2023. 

“My bigger concern is that when the debt-limit gets resolved — and I think it will — you are going to have a very, very deep and sudden drain of liquidity,” said Bergmann, adding:

“This is not something that’s very obvious, but it’s something that’s very real. And we’ve seen before that such a drop in liquidity really does negatively affect risk markets, such as equities and credit.”

In other words, the cash available to buy riskier assets like stocks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will all likely experience downward price pressure at some point after the debt ceiling is raised.

Bloomberg adds:

Estimated at well over $1 trillion by the end of the third quarter, the supply burst would quickly drain liquidity from the banking sector, raise short-term funding rates and tighten the screws on the US economy just as it’s on the cusp of recession. By Bank of America Corp.’s estimate it would have the same economic impact as a quarter-point interest-rate hike.

Will Bitcoin price remain rangebound?

Such macroeconomic hurdles could prevent Bitcoin from reclaiming its yearly highs of over $30,000 in the coming months, says independent market analyst Income Sharks.

“We most likely range between 20k to 30k and even get an altseason,” the analyst noted, adding: 

“New money isn’t coming in; it’s all just rotating […] Unless we get a new narrative or Stocks to find a way to rally, it’s looking more likely that the U.S. elections in 2024 will be the next big catalyst.

BTC price chart technicals meanwhile show BTC/USD consolidating below its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), near $27,650.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Failure to decisively breakout above this important resistance area will increase the chances of a pullback.

Traders should then watch for a possible correction toward the 200-day EMA near $25,000 — the next major support area, particularly if the Fed hikes by 25 basis points in June

Related: Bitcoin, gold and the debt ceiling — Does something have to give?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 reasons why Lido DAO price jumped 40% in a week — Outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) has rebounded to its three-week high of $2.21 as of May 16, up 40% when measured from its local low of $1.57, established four days ago.

This impressive double-digit recovery appeared in tandem with other top-ranking crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). However, LDO has greatly outperformed the broader crypto market (TOTAL) that’s up only 4.5% since May 12.

LDO/USD daily price returns vs. BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and TOTAL. Source: TradingView

But what are the reasons why Lido DAO is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market right now? Let’s take a closer look at the three biggest factors likely driving up LDO price.  

Ethereum depositors’ return after Shapella

The LDO price recovery coincides with the net positive inflows into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) contract in recent days.

Lido DAO is primarily an Ethereum liquid staking platform. It enables users to pool their funds to become validators on Ethereum, thus bypassing the network’s requirement of depositing at least 32 ETH.

In April, Ethereum underwent a network upgrade called Shapella, which supports reward withdrawals from its staking contract. As a result, its PoS contract witnessed days when the amount of ETH withdrawals outnumbered deposits.

For instance, the net ETH staked with its PoS contract were 19.27 million ETH on April 11, a day before the Shapella upgrade. The number fell to 90,704 a week later, followed by a consistent recovery, according to data tracked by Nansen.

Ethereum deposits and withdrawals into/from its PoS contract. Source: Nansen

As of May 16, the Ethereum PoS contract had over 20 million ETH, underscoring the growing demand for liquid staking service providers like Lido DAO. The price of its governance token LDO likely benefited from the narrative. 

For instance, Lido DAO’s nearest competitor, RocketPool (RPL), has also soared 15% to around $50 when measured from its May 12 low.

Lido V2 mainnet launch

It should be noted that Lido DAO did not support full ETH withdrawals. Instead, it issued staked Ethereum (stETH), theoretically pegged to ETH by 1:1, to users that could be exchanged freely for other crypto assets across exchanges.

But that was until recently.

On May 15, Lido DAO launched the mainnet version of “Lido V2,” which enables Ethereum stakers to burn their stETH and exit the protocol at a 1:1 ratio. Since the upgrade, LDO price has climbed 20%, or half of its 40% rebound thus far.

Related: Celsius moves $781M in stETH just as Lido withdrawals open

Lido DAO whales have also supported LDO’s upside move in the days leading up to the Lido V2 launch. And, according to data resource Lookonchain. This may suggest that the “buy the rumor” scenario may have contributed to the LDO price rally.

LDO price rising wedge bounce

From a technical standpoint, LDO’s 40% bounce started near the lower trendline of a prevailing falling wedge setup. Traditional analysts see a falling wedge as a bullish reversal pattern.

Lido DAO daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The LDO/USD pair has recovered similarly in recent history, with each rebound taking its price to the wedge’s upper trendline. Now with the price treading around the upper trendline again, LDO could enter a breakout stage or pull back to retest the lower trendline.

LDO’s breakout scenario will have the price rally toward $3.35 by June 2023, up around 50% from current price levels. This target appears after adding the maximum wedge height to the potential breakout point near $2.70.

Conversely, the pullback scenario could bring the LDO price near $1.56 by June 2023, down 30% from current price levels. This level has served as support and resistance in the past.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

4 alarming charts for Bitcoin bulls as $27K becomes formidable hurdle

Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 60% to around $27,000 in 2023 amid anticipations that the Federal Reserve would pause its quantitative tightening amid the U.S. banking crisis. Still, BTC price has failed to move beyond $30,000 decisively.

Buying exhaustion at this key psychological level led to a price correction toward $25,000 over the past week. Interestingly, the decline has strengthened Bitcoin’s correlation with several traditional financial metrics.

But does this raise the risk of Bitcoin continuing its downtrend in Q2? Let’s have a closer look.

U.S. dollar index’s double bottom

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, rose 1.4% to 102.70 in the week ending May 14. The rise marked the dollar’s best week since September 2022.

Interestingly, the dollar’s rise left behind a potential double bottom pattern, confirmed by two low points near a similar horizontal price level of around 100.75. A double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal setup, suggesting DXY could rise toward 105.85 in the next few months.

DXY weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

DXY’s weekly relative strength index (RSI), which has undergone a rebound after reaching 35 — just five points above the oversold threshold —  further hints at bullish continuation, which is typically a bad omen for Bitcoin’s price. 

The main reason is the strengthening negative weekly correlation between Bitcoin and DXY, with the coefficient around -50 as of May 14.

Earlier in the week, the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report showed headline inflation dropped to 4.9% in April versus the previous month’s 5%. However, core inflation was up 5.5%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky, which for now has cooled down Fed rate cut expectations.

John Authers from Bloomberg writes:

“The odds of a ‘pause’ in interest rate hikes next month have now risen to virtual certainty in futures and swaps markets, having been seen as an 84% chance before the numbers came out.”

A Fed pause should result in a stabilizing bond market. History indicates that stable interest rates have been good for U.S. Treasuries but bad for stocks, with Erin Browne and Emmanuel Sharef of Pimco saying:

“If the Fed pauses at its peak rate for at least six months and the U.S. slides into recession, then history suggests 12-month returns following the final rate hike could be flat for 10-year U.S. Treasuries, while the S&P 500 could sell off sharply.”

Thus, a souring risk appetite would be a boon for the dollar, while increasing the risk of Bitcoin failing to reclaim $30,000 in the short term.

Gold price near key reversal point

The price of gold has risen nearly 15% to over $2,000 an ounce amid the banking crisis. The positive correlation with Bitcoin has also grown stronger with its weekly coefficient reading at 0.82 as of May 14.

But gold’s rally has brought its price to an infamous horizontal resistance level near $2,075. In March 2022, this level was instrumental in triggering a sharp bearish reversal phase that led the gold’s value down by up to 22%.

XAU/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Similarly, testing the level as resistance in August 2020 preceded an 18% price decline. Should the scenario repeat in 2023, gold’s price could fall toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near $1,850.

Gold’s weekly RSI, treading around its overbought reading of 70, indicates at a similar downside scenario. As a result of the precious metal’s positive correlation with Bitcoin, the latter may see a similar correction in Q2.

M2 money supply declines

M2 measures cash in circulation plus dollars in bank and money-market accounts. The M2 figure surged by more than 40% during the Covid-19 pandemic due to the Fed’s quantitative easing, hitting a peak of $21.84 trillion in January 2022.

It has since declined to $20.81 trillion, down over 4% from peak, in May 2023.

U.S. M2 monthly supply chart. Source: TradingView

A 2%-plus drop in the M2 supply — something which has happened four times to date — is bad news for the stock market since it preceded three depressions and one panic.

In other words, the significant move lower in M2 could foreshadow new lows for Bitcoin, which often moves in tandem with U.S. stock indexes.

Currently, the weekly correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 index is 0.92.

Bitcoin price “rising wedge”

Bitcoin appears to be heading toward the $15,000-$20,000 price range, depending on its potential breakdown point from what appears to be a rising wedge pattern.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

For technical analysts, a rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that appears when the price rises higher inside a range defined by two contracting, ascending trendlines. It resolves after price breaks below the lower trendline, falling by as much as the maximum wedge height.

Related: BTC price bounces at $25.8K lows amid warning over low whale interest

If this BTC price pattern is confirmed, particularly given the above-mentioned macro indicators, Bitcoin price stands to decline to as low as $15,000 in 2023, down about 45% from current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

What is Pepecoin and can it flip memecoins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu?

The market valuation of Pepecoin (PEPE) has dropped by 65% as of May 12, a week after its record high of $1.54 billion.

Profit-taking appears to be the primary reason behind the extreme price correction, after it rallied from almost nothing to as high as $0.00000372 after its launch on April 14, while emerging as the fastest-growing ERC-20 token in the crypto market’s history.

PEPE market cap performance since launch. Source: CoinGecko

What is PEPE?

Pepecoin captures people’s attention by mimicking features of memecoins, based on popular internet memes. The most well-known is Dogecoin (DOGE), which uses the famous Shiba Inu dog meme as its logo. 

Pepecoin is based on the “Pepe The Frog” meme, created by Matt Furie in his 2005 cartoon “Boys Club.” The humanoid frog went on to become a mainstream meme in the mid-2010s, with singers Katy Perry and Nicki Minaj using it in their tweets.

In 2021, BarnBridge founder Tyler Ward launched a low-resolution Pepecoin NFT collection that reaped over $60 million in sales on the OpenSea auction platform.

Similarly, the anonymous team behind Pepecoin has leveraged the meme’s current popularity on Twitter.

They catalyzed early adoption by creating a coordinated meme campaign. Simultaneously, the media ran stories about early PEPE investors turning thousands of U.S. dollars worth of investments into millions within a week, prompting more people to join the frenzy.

For instance, the number of PEPE holders has grown from negligible to over 105,000 in a month, according to

PEPE holders count. Source:

But despite these positive price catalysts, Pepecoin remains without any real use-case for the average person. This isn’t unlike Dogecoin, however, whose shot-to-fame in recent years has more to do with Elon Musk’s support than its utility as a token.

Can PEPE flip Dogecoin, Shiba Inu?

PEPE is still only about 5% of Dogecoin’s market cap of over $10 billion. It’s also 10% of the second-largest memecoin Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) with a market cap of around $5 billion. 

“It wouldn’t be surprising to see PEPE surpass both at some point, if only momentarily, now that it has gained legitimacy,” argues Chase Devens, a researcher at Messari. The immediate listings across popular centralized crypto exchanges like Binance are the primary reason for the rapid rise in valuation, adds Devens..

For instance, SHIB’s first centralized exchange listing appeared more than 260 days after launch. In comparison, PEPE’s centralized exchange debut occurred only six days after launch. And 22 days later, the token started trading on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume.

PEPE vs. SHIB market cap per holder. Source: Messari

“Not only do these integrations lower the barrier for retail speculation, they also enable large capital providers to provide off-chain market making services,” Devens notes, adding:

“PEPE perpetual futures are now available on exchanges like Binance and Bybit to give users access to 100x leverage against PEPE’s price. In only a few days, PEPE derivative volumes have already surpassed daily spot trading volumes.”

The launch of PEPE also coincides with the 100% rise in Uniswap’s daily active users on Ethereum, now approaching its all-time high of 90,000 from May 2021.

Most of these users have engaged in memecoin trading, which includes other newly-launched tokens such as WOJAK, TURBO, and AIDOGE.

Uniswap daily active users. Source: Dune Analytics/Messari

More pain ahead for PEPE price?

As a note of caution, the excitement and growth of PEPE shows similarities with the final phase of 2021’s memecoin bull run.

Related: Pepe would be ashamed by PEPE investors

Notably, PEPE’s short-term gains appear identical to DOGE’s price rally on the weekly charts. Also, its ongoing correction looks similar to DOGE’s 90%-plus decline from its record high of $0.75 in May 2021.

PEPE/USDT four-hour versus DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, Pepecoin’s price could extend its ongoing correction in the short term toward $0.00000083, or 35% below the current price levels.

Moreover, a Dogecoin-like 90% crash from the market top would bring PEPE’s price to $0.00000035, which served as resistance in April 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Warren Buffett dumps $13.3B in stocks — A warning sign for Bitcoin and risk-assets?

Warren Buffett moving into cash suggests that he’s bracing for a possible collapse in risk-on asset prices. With Bitcoin (BTC) up 70% year-to-date and correlated with equities, should BTC investors also prepare for a potential stock market crash? 

Buffett says “incredible period” is over

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumped $13.30 billion worth of equities and increased exposure in cash and U.S. Treasuries in Q1, its latest quarterly earnings report shows. Meanwhile, it channeled $4.4 billion toward purchasing its own stock and $2.9 billion on the shares of other publicly-traded companies.

The market considers Berkshire Hathaway’s performance as a key indicator to gauge the U.S. economy’s health, given the firm’s holdings range from American railroad to electric utilities and retail businesses.

But the 92-year old investor, who has credited the U.S. economy’s growth for the success of Berkshire Hathaway in the past, is no longer optimistic.

“The majority of our businesses will report lower earnings this year than last year,” Buffett said last weekend at an event. The “incredible period” for the US economy has been coming to an end over the past six months, he added.

Berkshire raised its cash reserves by $2 billion to $130.60 billion in Q1/2023, the highest level since the end of 2021 when equities entered a bear cycle. Moreover, the firm holds a vast amount of its cash in short-term Treasury bills and bank deposits thanks to higher interest rates near 5%. 

In other words, Buffett is preparing for a potential stock market crash, particularly as the U.S. banking crisis continues to unfold (e.g. PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp) .

Bitcoin price stays correlated with Nasdaq 

The increasing possibility of a global recession also risks putting downside pressure on Bitcoin, whose 100-week correlation with the Nasdaq reached its highest level of about 0.42%.

Moreover, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone expects that BTC price would likely be the leading indicator for a stock crash. 

“Bitcoin could pace declines for risk assets — If the worst isn’t over for risk assets, Bitcoin may lead the way lower,” noted McGlone, adding:

“Bitcoin is up about 70% in 2023 to May 2 vs. 20% for the stock index, and those are maybe bounces within broader bear markets. The Fed [is] still tightening in May, and [is] more inclined to stay the course unless risk assets fall to ease inflation, may portend a lose-lose.”

Bitcoin-NASDAQ correlation index

In the short term, there are little expectations from the U.S. consumer price index report on May 10 about easing inflation in April. According to Bloomberg’s survey, economists expect core CPI to remain unchanged at around 5%, meaning more rate hikes ahead.

On the other hand, a big drop in inflation will likely prompt the Fed to consider pausing or even slashing interest rates in an extreme case scenario.

Currently, Fed funds futures’ data suggests that at least five rate cuts between May 2023 and January 2024 are likely — something which may pour cold water on Buffett’s risk-off strategy. 

Fed funds rate projections. Source: Bloomberg

Could Bitcoin price fall below $25K again?

Bitcoin’s price has declined roughly 6% over the past week, trading for as low as $27,350 on May 9.

Notably, this has pulled BTC’s price the below its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $27,950.

Bitcoin bears are now eyeing $27,000 as the next downside target based on the level’s recent history. 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

A decisive break below the $27,000 support, primarily in the event of further rate hikes, could then pull down BTC/USD down to its 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $24,600. In other words, a 10% drop by June. 

Conversely, a rebound from $27,000 increases the possibility of BTC price retesting $30,000 as resistance, and to resume the uptrend of the last few months. 

Related: Analysts at odds over Fed, US debt ceiling impact on Bitcoin price

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The Ethereum Foundation just sold $30M in Ether — But will ETH price fall this time?

On May 6, Ethereum Foundation transferred nearly $30 million in Ether (ETH) to the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, causing jitters in the market about a potential selloff event.

ETH price fell 4.8% to $1,900 on the day, but the decline has been negligible so far amid a wider recovery trend.

ETH price holding key support

Ether’s price recovered modestly to $1,920 on May 7 after testing its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,850 as support a day ago.

Moreover, the price volatility dropped on Kraken in the said period, per the contracting Bollinger Bands Width in the chart below. That further shows traders’ calm amid the Ethereum Foundation transfer.

Notably, the 50-day EMA has capped Ether’s downside attempts so far in 2023, barring the early March selloff that saw the price briefly falling below the red wave. Meanwhile, testing it as support has prompted the ETH price to pursue a breakout above $2,000.

As a result of this support, ETH bulls may attempt to take the price above $2,000 again.

Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA could have traders eye a support confluence comprising a multi-month ascending trendline and the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $1,700 as the next downside target, down about 13% from current price levels. 

Even with a larger decline, ETH would be maintaining its overall recovery trend when measured from its June 2022 bottom of $880. 

Ethereum exchange reserves vs. Kraken reserves

A rising exchange balance suggests potential selling pressure rising and vice versa. In Ethereum’s case, the balance remained lower across all the exchanges despite the Ethereum Foundation’s transferring $30 million in to Kraken.

For instance, Kraken’s Ether balance increased to 1.84 million ETH on May 6 from 1.83 million a day ago.

Ether Kraken balance vs. exchange balance. Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the balance across all exchanges actually dropped to 18.15 million ETH from 18.22 million ETH on the day, indicating that any potential sell-pressure from the Ethereum Foundation can easily be absorbed. 

Not necessarily a ETH market top

The Ethereum Foundation’s last big transfer was 20,000 ETH in November 2021, when the price topped around $4,850, and declining 80% thereafter. Similarly, the foundation sold 35,053 ETH at the local market top of around $3,500 in May 2021.

Related: Ethereum up 20% in April while Markets Pro sees 379% gain in one day

Many analysts treated these fractals as a sign of another possible market top formation near $2,000, arguing that the price may fall in the coming sessions.

But broader data suggests otherwise. For instance, Ethereum Foundation’s large ETH sales occurred also during the 2020-2021 bull cycle, boosted by growing demand for risk-on assets in a lower interest rate macro environment.

Ethereum Foundation large ETH transfers to exchanges in recent period. Source: Wu Blockchain

In other words, there’s little evidence to suggest that the Ethereum Foundation’s sales have any impact on Ethereum’s price trend. Instead, the cryptocurrency market is currently taking cues from the U.S. banking crisis and whether this will force the Federal Reserve to stop hiking and cut interest rates.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SUI price drops 70% from market debut top amid excessive supply concerns

The price of Sui (SUI) has dropped sharply after its market debut across leading cryptocurrency exchanges.

On May 5, SUI price was $1.26 per token, down about 70% from its record high of around $4, established two days ago on Binance.

Interestingly, on other exchanges like Kraken, the token’s market top was $1.60 or lower, suggesting it was in “price discovery” mode after the launch.

SUI/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Still, SUI maintains its overall market gains, up nearly 1,200% from its market debut.

Early SUI price fundamentals

SUI’s initial uptrend draws support from traders who view Sui — a new entry into the long list of layer-one blockchain projects — as potentially more scalable than its rivals.

Mysten Labs, Sui’s original contributor, asserts that it will become the first internet-scale programmable blockchain platform thanks to its claims of processing about 300,000 transactions per second. In comparison, Solana (SOL) handles up to 10,000 transactions per second.

Venture capitalists led by a16z and FTX Ventures have invested $336 million in the Sui project via two investment rounds in 2021 and 2022. Mysten Labs confirmed that the rounds gave investors access to their firm’s equities, not SUI tokens.

However, the project’s token economics shows that it has allocated 14% of its 10 billion SUI supply to investors. Mysten Labs has not revealed when it would distribute these tokens or any vesting schedule associated with them yet.

SUI token distribution model as of May 1. Source: Messari

Regarding FTX Ventures, a subsidiary of the now-defunct FTX crypto exchange, Mysten Labs repurchased the stakes held by the firm in April 2023. Furthermore, it took back the rights to buy SUI tokens previously held by FTX for about $96 million.

SUI supply overload?

Traders and analysts have shown their conviction in the Sui project’s goals to become an attractive blockchain alternative. However, there are also concerns about SUI’s supply schedule.

Related: What is Tokenomics? A beginner’s guide on supply and demand of cryptocurrencies

Notably, the Sui Foundation plans to increase the SUI supply by approximately 15% by the end of 2023, which, according to analyst Dmitriy Lavrov, could prompt traders to wait for further price declines before entering the market.

From a short-term technical perspective, the SUI price faces interim selloff pressure near $1.31.

A pullback scenario could have the token eye $1.26 as its short-term downside target. And suppose the oversupply scenario prevails. Then, the price could drop to $1.21 on May 5 or over the weekend, down 7% from current prices. 

SUI/USD 15-minute price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, analyst Ameba sees SUI rising toward $1.50 in May based on its decisive close above its descending trendline resistance. Fellow trader Crypto Mikey projects a similar uptrend for Sui price.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 signs PEPE token is about to trap bulls after 2,000% price rally

New meme-coin Pepe (PEPE) has entered a sharp correction phase after surging by more than 2,000% since its debut a few weeks ago.

On May 3, the PEPE price dropped to $0.00000089, down about 35% from its record high of $0.00000138 established two days ago. As a result of the correction, its market capitalization slipped by nearly $80 million, thus pushing it out of the top-100 top cryptocurrency index. 

Pepe price performance since market debut. Source: CoinGecko

A mix of technical and fundamental indicators hint at further downside for PEPE price. 

Retail interest falls

PEPE’s daily trading volumes declined across centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) as prices fell. The same happened to the Google trends for the keyword “Pepe Coin,” whose score is down from 100 to 7 in a day, suggesting that the retail hype has subsided in the past 48 hours.

Interest rate for the keyword Pepe Coin. Source: Google Trends

PEPE whale distribution is worrisome

The top 100 richest PEPE addresses, aka “whales,” control 45% of the token’s circulating supply, according to data tracked by

Top PEPE distribution. Source:

These 100 addresses might belong to 100 different individuals. But one entity can control more than one address, which gives a limited number of whales more say over the direction of PEPE future price trends, increasing risk of price manipulation.

For instance, Lookonchain revealed that five addresses allegedly linked to the Pepe team made a $1.23 million profit in a thin liquid market. They purchased 8.87 trillion PEPE tokens at a low price and sold over 90% of their holdings at a higher price on Uniswap.

PEPE buying and selling schematic. Source: Lookonchain

Some of the top PEPE holders are centralized exchanges. But, according to data tracked by analyst 008.eth, non-exchange PEPE whales have reduced positions recently, hinting at profit-taking that coincided with the ongoing price correction.

20% PEPE correction ahead?

PEPE has rallied without any concrete fundamentals behind it, and the evidence of fewer whales controlling the uptrend could negate the gains in the short term. Technicals concur.

Related: 11 classic memes that have been sold as NFTs

For instance, the four-hour chart shows that PEPE/USDT has formed higher highs, but its relative strength index (RSI) has formed lower highs since April 30. In other words, a bearish divergence that suggests PEPE’s upside momentum will likely weaken in the short term.

In addition, PEPE appears on the road to its 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) near $0.0000047410, down 20% from current price levels.

A further break below the red wave could have the token test the $0.00000020-0.00000017 range as the next downside target.

Of course, the PEPE token is new and thus lacks adequate price history to anticipate its future price movements. Moreover, meme-coins are notorious for their sharp volatility and major price moves. 

Dogecoin, for instance, has rallied 7,000% since 2020 thanks to vocal support from billionaire investor Elon Musk.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Litecoin price poised for 700% gains vs. Bitcoin, says Charlie Lee

Litecoin (LTC) can make some big gains versus Bitcoin (BTC), particularly as the August halving event gets closer, according to Litecoin’s creator Charlie Lee.

Litecoin up 85% since record lows versus Bitcoin

Lee argues that LTC/BTC could rally to 0.025 BTC, or over 700%, in the next bull cycle, with Litecoin having “higher throughput by design, scalability with extension blocks, better fungibility, and privacy from MWEB.”


“I can see an upside target of 10% (0.025 LTC/BTC). In the next bull market, 5% (0.0125) shouldn’t be too hard to achieve. I honestly don’t see it going much below 1% (0.0025) on the downside. The next halving will be in ~92 days. This is going to be fun.”

His statements appeared after Litecoin’s 85% price recovery from its record low of 0.001716 BTC in June 2022. LTC is still down about 90% below its record high of 0.051 BTC from November 2013, owing to rising competition in the altcoin market.

LTC/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Litecoin halving looms

LTC’s recovery in recent months has been accompanied by growing buzz around its upcoming block reward halving.

The Litecoin block reward to miners will be cut by 50% from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC sometime in August 2023.

As a result, new LTC supply will drop by 50%, which should, at least in theory, make LTC more scarce on the market and therefore, go up in price.

Historically, the months leading to Litecoin halving typically prompted traders to accumulate LTC. For instance, the first halving event in August 2015 preceded a 450% price rally versus Bitcoin.

However, the months before the second halving event saw limited gains as Bitcoin’s crypto dominance grew amid the U.S.-China trade war. But, as a rule, LTC/BTC falls sharply after halving events, suggesting the same could happen after August 2023.

LTC price technicals hint at a similar scenario, with LTC/BTC printing what appears to be a bear flag pattern, as shown below.

LTC/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The pair may bounce toward the upper trendline of its bear flag, which coincided with the 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.0035 BTC ahead of the halving. But its bear flag target sits around 0.0024 BTC, down 20% from current price levels.

Litecoin price to $100 by June?

Litecoin has fared better versus the U.S. dollar in the months leading up to the last two halvings. LTC’s price grew about 250% ahead of the first halving and 500% ahead of the second when measured from their sessional lows, respectively. 

LTC/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView

The price has undergone a similar upside trajectory ahead of the August halving, with LTC up 120% from its sessional low of around $40. And it may continue to rise in the coming months, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.

For instance, Litecoin is undervalued relative to its fair value, according to Glassnode’s MVRV-Z score of -0.139.

Related: Why is Litecoin price up today?

The MVRV-Z score represents the ratio between the market and realized cap. So when the market value is significantly higher than realized value, it historically indicates a market top (red zone). Meanwhile, the opposite indicates market bottoms (green zone), as shown below.

Litecoin MVRV-Z score. Source: Glassnode

Litecoin has entered the green zone, which typically precedes strong bullish reversals.

From a technical standpoint, LTC price is well-positioned for a rebound after retesting its multi-month ascending trendline as support.

LTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In this case, LTC/USD can climb toward its horizontal resistance level near $100, up about 20% from current prices.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum whale population drops after Shapella — Will ETH price sink too?

The share of Ethereum (ETH) held by so-called whale addresses has dropped since Ethereum’s Shapella upgrade in mid April, suggesting that large investors may be leaning bearish in t near term.

ETH whale population shrinks post-Shapella

The amount of Ether held by addresses with 1,000-10,000 ETH, or “whales,” was over 14.033 million ETH on May 1, according to Glassnode data. In comparison, the count was 14.167 million ETH on April 12, when Shapella went live on Ethereum.

Ethereum whale net position change. Source: Glassnode

Interestingly, a week before the Shapella upgrade, the Ethereum whale cohort held 14.303 million ETH, the highest amount in 2023

“Shrimps” only ones buying ETH since Shapella

Ether’s price is down over 3.5% since the Shapella upgrade— suggesting that several whales may have indeed “sold the news.”

Interestingly, other address cohorts also showed a decline, including sharks (100-1,000 ETH), fishes (10-100 ETH), crabs (1-10 ETH), and even mega-whales (10,000+ ETH).

Only shrimps (<1 ETH) accumulated during the period, with their net position slightly increasing from 1.79 million ETH on April 12 to 1.80 million ETH on May 1.

Ethereum shrimp net position change. Source: TradingView

Shapella enabled investors to withdraw the ETH locked via staking, which some argued would increase selling pressure.

Since the Shapella upgrade, investors have withdrawn over 1.97 million ETH worth around $3.6 billion, according to Nevertheless, no major changes in cryptocurrency exchanges’ ETH balances have been seen to date. 

Ethereum whales vs. shrimps

Historically, less Ethereum whales typically means heightened downside risk for ETH price.

Whale activity typically acts as a leading market indicator. So, rich investors accumulating typically precedes a price rise, and vice versa. 

The price-whale positive correlation existed until March 2020, as shown in the chart below. Afterward, retail mania took over alongside the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and the correlation snapped.

Ethereum whale net position change. Source: Glassnode

Notably, ETH price rallied from $110 in March 2020 to over $4,950 in November 2021 despite the declining whales. The inverse correlation continued throughout the price downtrend to around $850 in June 2022.

But since then, whale holdings have risen by nearly 1 million ETH. Meanwhile, ETH’s price has more than doubled to around $1,850, hinting at a possible return of the price-whale correlation, which would be a bullish sign for Ethereum. 

Where can ETH price go next?

The $2,000-level is an important psychological resistance level for ETH/USD that bulls have been unable to break upon multiple attempts in 2023.

Related: Ethereum price outlook weakens, but ETH derivatives suggest $1.6K is unlikely

On the daily chart, ETH/USD holds above the short-term support provided by its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), near $1,840. A successful rebound from here opens $2,000-$2,125 as the next upside target range in Q2.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a break below the 50-day EMA risks sending ETH toward its 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $1,670, down about 10% from current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Mineflation: Cost to mine one Bitcoin in the US rises from $5K to $17K in 2023

It now costs Bitcoin (BTC) miners at least $17,000 to produce one BTC in the U.S. versus the $5,000-10,000 range a year ago, according to Bitcoin mining data resource Hashrate Index and Luxor.

Bitcoin hashprice has dropped 58% in a year

Unsurprisingly, soaring electricity rates across the U.S. states have contributed to rising Bitcoin mining costs.

Notably, between January 2022 and January 2023, the commercial electricity tariff surged at an average of 10.71% per U.S. state, higher than the average consumer price index surge of 6.4%.

Average industrial rate rise between January 2022 and 2023. Source: EIA/Hashrate Index/Luxor

Coupled with Bitcoin’s downward performance in 2022, which saw a maximum drawdown from around $48,000 to below $15,000, it is evident that active miners generated consistent losses due to the increase in operational costs and lower returns.

But this changed in Q1 of this year as the miners’ hashprice, or the USD price per tera-hash per second per day (TH/s/d), rose 31% thanks to Bitcoin’s price recovery toward $30,000.

“Bleak as the new year looked at the outset, the lowest day for hashprice on a USD basis in Q1 was January 1,” noted researchers at Hashrate Index, adding:

“It was only up from there as a 70% rise resuscitated Bitcoin’s price over the quarter, and along with it, hashprice.”

Bitcoin hashprice (in the dollar terms). Source: Hashrate Index/Luxor

Which state is cheapest, most expensive to mine Bitcoin in? 

New Mexico emerged as the cheapest and, in turn, more profitable state for Bitcoin miners in Q1 at $16,850 to mint one BTC. On the other hand, Hawaii was the most expensive at around $114,590.

Regionally, the south and the midwestern US states are the most attractive for miners in terms of electricity.

Power cost to produce 1 BTC across U.S. states. Source: EIA/Hashrate Index/Luxor

More recently, some U.S. states, including Arkansas, MontanaMissouri, Mississippi, and others, have take concrete steps to protect crypto miners from excessive taxes and regulations. On the other hand, Texas has amended its utilities and tax codes, bolstering restrictions for crypto mining companies.

Energy deflation could boost miners’ profitability 

Furthermore, the researchers anticipate the Bitcoin mining margins to grow further based on the U.S. Energy Information Association’s (EIA) expectations of energy price deflation

Related: Bitcoin advocates rally at Texas State Capitol to oppose bill cutting mining incentives

For instance, the agency expects the demand for electricity to drop by 1% in Q2, citing additional generation from renewable sources and cheaper natural gas prices. It further anticipates that natural gas prices will remain below $3 in 2023 from 2022’s $6.45 average.

Forecasts for wholesale electricity prices in the U.S. Source: Hashrate Index/Luxor/EIA

Bitcoin mining stocks shine

Lower operational costs could help otherwise cash-strapped Bitcoin mining companies survive in 2023. For example, the stock price of Core Scientific, an already bankrupt Bitcoin mining firm, has jumped over 450% YTD.

Similarly, the HI Crypto Mining Stock Index has soared by more than 100% this year , showing a return of investor appetite for mining socks.

Bitcoin mining stocks performance in 2023. Source: Hashrate Index/Luxor/EIA

Hashrate Index researchers noted:

“If the bitcoin price was to increase by an additional 40% to reach $42k this year, most mining stocks would rise by more than 50% from today’s level, while the four-to-five biggest gainers would soar by more than 150%.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Analysts at odds over Fed, US debt ceiling impact on Bitcoin price

On April 26, House Republicans scarcely passed their bill to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This led to analysts already weighing its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), ranging from extremely bearish to overly bullish.

Ultimately, U.S. dollar liquidity is the key to both of these opposing viewpoint.

“Deflationary recession” to produce 2020-like BTC rally?

Some analysts, including Jesse Meyers, the COO of investment firm Onramp, believe raising the debt ceiling would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money, thus boosting capital inflows into “risky” assets like Bitcoin.

BTC/USD daily price chart vs. dollar liquidity. Source:

The debt ceiling represents the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

Raising it means they can issue more debt to generate more capital. But since the Fed is not buying bonds anymore thanks to its “quantitative tightening,” and the flow of available M2 money supply crashing, the U.S. government debt may find it hard to attract buyers. 

M2 year-over-year flow versus stock. Source: Bloomberg 

In other words, a deflationary recession that Meyers believes will force the Fed to return to its quantitive easing policy.

“When the debt ceiling is lifted and credit-contraction leads to economic crisis… They will have to print money on a massive scale,” he noted, reminding:

“Bitcoin was the winner during the last round of stimulus.”

Dollar credibility blow would boost Bitcoin price

The government has already hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January 2023. So, it theoretically cannot generate more capital until the Senate passes the House-passed bill.

U.S. public debt to date. Source: FRED

However, it’s unlikely to pass the Senate and Biden has also vowed to veto the bill.

The standoff could result in the U.S. government defaulting on its debt in June, which poses negative consequences for the U.S. dollar, according to Jeff John Roberts, crypto editor at Fortune.

“If [Republicans] decide to go the kamikaze route during the current debt ceiling standoff, it will deliver another major hit to the dollar’s credibility—and a further boost to Bitcoin,” he noted

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers meanwhile downplays the fears associated with a potential debt default, noting that the odds of it happening stands under 2%.


“I think the odds that we will default in the sense of insolvency, and over some interval people who hold bonds will not be able to get paid, are – assuming the absence of a major war – certainly under 2% over the next decade.”

Fed won’t go QE, bears argue

Presenting a similar outlook, analyst TedTalksMacro says extending the debt ceiling would ensure that the Fed continues contracting its balance sheet through the ongoing QT.

That points to lower liquidity and, in turn, more downside pressure for Bitcoin.

“One caveat to the liquidity down/sideways for the rest of 2023 would be the Fed winding up or slowing the current pace QT,” TedTalksMacro adds.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price hits new record high in Argentina

Last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high in Argentine Pesos (ARS) terms following persistent inflation in Argentina.

Argentina’s inflation pushes BTC price to all-time high

On April 18, the BTC-to-ARS exchange rate crossed over 6.59 million ARS, according to aggregated price data tracked by Google Finance.

Since the peak, the rate has corrected to around 6 million ARS, down 9%, but still up more than 100% year-to-date (YTD).

BTC/ARS price performance so far in 2023. Source: Google Finance

Bitcoin’s growth in the Argentine markets coincides with the continuous ARS devaluation. For instance, traders were paying as low as 460 ARS to buy a dollar note from the black market on April 24 — more than double the official spot rate that pays 220 ARS for the dollar. 

FMyA, a U.S.-based consultancy firm, notes that the Argentine central bank’s reserves have dropped by half to an estimated $1.3 billion since 2019.

That has raised the risks of further peso devaluation, which has crashed nearly 99% from the currency crisis peak of 330 ARS in 2018. That has led locals to seek haven in the dollar that’s becoming scarce due to rising demand i the country.

ARS/USD price performance since 2004. Source: Google Finance

At the same time, Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies operating outside governments’ and central banks’ purview are increasingly emerging as alternatives. For example, data shows that Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer weekly volume in Argentina reached a record high of nearly $30 million in March on the Paxful exchange.

Bitcoin weekly volume in Argentina. Source: Paxful/CoinDance

Also, a study in 2022 found that nearly 60% of Argentines believe in Bitcoin’s ability to safeguard the value of their savings in the long term. Popular U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase als recommends BTC becomes a legal tender in Argentina.

Bitcoin gaining traction in Argentina

Earlier in April, the National Commission of Value (CNV), Argentina’s securities regulator, approved a Bitcoin-based futures index on the Matba Rofex exchange for the May debut. The derivative, settled in pesos, will enable accredited investors to gain exposure to the Bitcoin markets.

Related: Latin America is ready for crypto — Just integrate it with their payment systems

In addition, a recent bill proposed by the Ministry of Economy asked citizens to declare their crypto holdings and incentivized them with tax benefits. Also, in December 2022, an Argentine province announced its intentions to issue a dollar-backed stablecoin.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price lower highs vs. Bitcoin hint at more downside in April

The price of Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token has retreated from its recovery trend versus Bitcoin (BTC) while making a series of lower highs in April.

ETH price risks more losses vs. Bitcoin

As of April 24, the ETH/BTC pair was down about 5.5% from its local high of 0.0709 BTC six days ago. The same period witnessed Ether declining nearly 15% and Bitcoin dropping 11.25% in U.S. dollar terms.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

For now, ETH holds above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near 0.0672 BTC. But if the March 2023 fractal is any indication, Ethereum’s price could drop sharply below the support wave.

The ETH/BTC pair saw a pullback trend in March after testing the 200-day EMA (the blue wave), breaking below its 50-day EMA in the process.

If the fractal plays out similarly in April, the downside target is 0.0627 BTC by the month’s end, about 7% lower than the current levels, and a level that served as major support in March and April.

This target also coincides with Ether’s long-term ascending trendline support — the “buy zone” in the chart below — that has been capping its bearish attempts since June 2022.

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Weekly Ethereum institutional flows beat BTC

Interestingly, Ethereum’s underperformance versus Bitcoin was counter to institutional flows for the past week. 

Ethereum funds attracted $17 million to their coffers in the week ending April 21 versus Bitcoin’s $53.1 million outflow, according to CoinShares’ latest report.

Fund flow into crypto funds. Source: CoinShares

“These inflows suggest there is increasing confidence amongst investors following the successful implementation of the Shapella upgrade,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, noted, adding that they “were solely from Europe.”

Related: Ethereum up 20% in April while Markets Pro sees 379% gain in one day

As for Bitcoin, the outflow began around April 14 when the coin reached $30,000, a psychological resistance level. Butterfill said the BTC’s drop to below $27,500 resulted from profit-taking in the absence of macroeconomic triggers.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Warren Buffett was wrong about a ‘rat poison’ Bitcoin portfolio, data shows

Legendary investor Warren Buffett sees no value in Bitcoin (BTC), infamously calling it “rat poison squared.” But data shows that adding Bitcoin to a so-called “Rat Poison Portfolio,” an equally weighted portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JPMorgan, and BlackRock stocks, would have produced much better returns for The Oracle of Omaha.

“Rat poison portfolio” with Bitcoin does better 

Since 2014, allocating only 2.5% Bitcoin yearly to the “Rat Poison Portfolio” increases returns by nearly 20% with reduced risks, according to independent market analyst Alpha Zeta. For now, the portfolio’s returns stand around 16%.

Rat poison portfolio with Bitcoin allocations. Source: Alpha Zeta

Despite Bitcoin’s notorious price volatility, Alpha Zeta noted that BTC’s correlation with the stocks of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan, and BlackRock is very low.

Correlation between Bitcoin and Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan, and BlackRock stocks since 2014. Source: Alpha Zeta

For instance, during the 2021-2023 bear market, allocating Bitcoin to the Rat Poison Portfolio could have negated losses by around 10%.

Rat Poison Portfolio drawdown including Bitcoin’s 2.5% allocation. Source: Alpha Zeta

In other words, BTC typically negates losses imposed by the downside movements in the said stocks. Therefore, allocating a small portion of Bitcoin to the Rat Poison Portfolio has proven to be a reasonable hedging strategy to offset potential negative returns.

Bitcoin outperformed Berkshire Hathaway by 320,000%

Bitcoin’s proponents have projected it as an alternative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, given the scarcity that comes with its fixed 21 million BTC supply and increasing deflation over time.

This has attracted many people to buy Bitcoin as a way of offsetting fiat debasement and excessive money printing of central banks around the world. For instance, the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has grown from around 2,500 in 2009 to over 45 million in 2023, per Glassnode.

The number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses since 2009. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, Buffett believes Bitcoin recently said that Bitcoin is a gambling token, noting that “it doesn’t have any intrinsic value […], but that doesn’t stop people from wanting to play the roulette wheel.”

However, the veteran investor continues to have exposure in the broader crypto market through his popular investments, such as Nubank, which offers crypto-related services in Latin America.

Related: Financial analyst agrees Bitcoin could be ‘rat poison,’ but not in the way you think

As of April 2023, Bitcoin is down nearly 60% from its record high of $69,000 in November 2021, but is up 100% so far this year.

Since its market debut on Jan. 9, 2019, Bitcoin has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio by over 320,000%.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Dogecoin soared 23,000% in 2021 — Is history starting to repeat for DOGE price?

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) has almost doubled after bottoming out at $0.0491 in June 2022, alongside a similar recovery across the cryptocurrency market.

On April 20, DOGE is trading for as high as $0.0942, up around 94% versus the last year’s bottom. But, despite its impressive rebound, its price is still 88% below its all-time high of $0.76 set in May 2021.  Thus, the DOGE/USD pair remains far from establishing a decisive bullish reversal on longer timeframes.

DOGE/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Dogecoin’s bullish reversal ahead?

Dogecoin price soared over 23,000% in 2021 primarily due to Elon Musk’s vocal support. Ironically, DOGE/USD topped after Musk called it a “hustle” during his Saturday Night Live appearance in May 2021.

DOGE price entered a prolonged long bearish cycle, furthered by the prospects of the Fed tightening (leading to actual interest rate cuts in 2022 and 2023). Also, the collapse of multiple leading crypto firms, such as Terra (LUNA), Three Arrow Capital, FTX, etc., exacerbated the DOGE selloff. 

October 2022 saw a 100% price rebound despite the multi-month downtrend. The recovery coincided with Musk’s shaky takeover of Twitter amid hopes that DOGE would become the social media platform’s official payment token. 

As of April 2023, Musk has not added a DOGE payment option on Twitter. Though, he briefly replaced the platform’s iconic bluebird logo with Dogecoin’s official mascot, the Shiba Inu meme, earlier in the month. DOGE rallied by up to 40% on the news.

From a fundamental perspective, speculation can help Dogecoin sustain its year-to-date gains. But the all-time high price is still 700% away, which is likely to happen only it receives wider adoption, such as for Twitter payments.

DOGE price technicals

In fractal analysis terms, Dogecoin’s bullish reversal prospects depend on holding above its two key weekly exponential moving averages (EMA).

Related: Is Dogecoin coming to Twitter? Watch The Market Report

Notably, DOGE price has attempted to close above its 50-week (the red wave) near $0.0917 and 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $0.0895. That is similar to its sideways action and breakout attempts in April-November 2020 that preceded a 30,000% price rally.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

DOGE may not undergo a similar 30,000% price rally in 2023 due to conflicting fundamentals. But in the event of the Fed’s interest rate pivot or addition of Dogecoin payments to Twitter, the meme-coin could eye a run-up toward its record high of $0.76 in 2023.   

Conversely, a reversal from the aforementioned EMAs risks triggering a classic continuation setup called the ascending triangle.

The pattern appears on a chart when the price fluctuates between rising trendline support and horizontal trendline resistance. It typically resolves after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous trend.

As a result of its previous downtrend, DOGE’s ascending triangle appears to favor the bears, eyeing downside targets at lengths equal to the pattern’s maximum height from the potential breakout point.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

That puts DOGE’s yearend price target inside the $0.0363-0.0469 range, down 45-60% from the current price levels, respectively. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

MicroStrategy stock price more than doubles in 2023 in lockstep with Bitcoin

MicroStrategy’s infamous Bitcoin (BTC) investment strategy is playing out profitably so far into 2023.

Today, MicroStrategy’s stock MSTR is up roughly 140% year-to-date (YTD) to $350 per share, its highest level since September last year. It mirrored Bitcoin’s 90% YTD gains, maintaining a strong positive correlation with the top cryptocurrency.

MSTR daily price chart featuring its daily correlation with BTC. Source: TradingView

Proxy Bitcoin investment boom

To recap, MicroStrategy is essentially a proxy for direct BTC investment without a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. It holds 140,000 BTC worth $4.26 billion, the most by a publicly-traded company as a part of its Treasury strategy.

MSTR investors typically get their buying or selling cues from the same catalysts that drive Bitcoin market trends.

As a result, the stock has mirrored the BTC price uptrend so far in 2023, led by rush-to-safety trades amid the U.S. banking crisis and anticipation the Federal Reserve would stop hiking rates.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

For instance, CNN data shows Bank of America’s entities owns 86,147 MSTR shares. Similarly, Fidelity purchased 97,199 MSTR shares throughout 2022, suggesting growing institutional interest in proxy Bitcoin investments.

Coinbase’s COIN, another stock offering indirect crypto exposure, has doubled in value this year as well.

MicroStrategy’s core business is unhealthy

MicroStrategy is essentially an enterprise software solution company and generates its revenue from software licensing and subscription services.

The firm realized a net loss of $193.7 million during Q4/2022, up from $137.5 million a year ago, led by a Bitcoin impairment loss of $197.6 million. Furthermore, its operating cash flow was $18.2 million compared to a positive cash flow of $3.2 million in the same quarter a year ago.

Of course, MicroStrategy could sell its Bitcoin holdings to boost its balance sheet reserves. But the company says it will not alter its BTC buying strategy under financial stress. Instead, it employs strategies like share dilutions and debt offerings to raise capital to buy BTC.

“The risk here will come from its inability to buy Bitcoin with positive cash flows in future quarters as per its strategy,” says Pacifica Yield, financial blogger at Seeking Alpha, adding:

“Dilution to buy assets that you lose money on if Bitcoin returns to its near-term lows would not be a shareholder-friendly strategy.”

 20% correction for MSTR stock in Q2?

From a technical standpoint, MSTR has a high probability of a 20% price correction in Q2.

Related: MicroStrategy’s Saylor fuses work email address with Bitcoin Lightning

The stock’s yearly rally has landed its price near a resistance range — between $320 and $340 —  notorious for capping breakout attempts. Suppose a pullback occurs. Then, the price could drop toward its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) below $260 by June.

MSTR three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

MicroStrategy is expected to release its Q1 earnings report by May 2.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum is up 15% versus Bitcoin since Shapella — More ETH price gains ahead?

Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token has entered a sharp price recovery a week after hitting a six-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC). 

On April 18, the widely-tracked ETH/BTC pair reached 0.0709 BTC, up about 15% from its local bottom of 0.0602 BTC six days ago. Now it eyes a run-up toward 0.075 BTC by June, based on the fractal setup previously discussed here.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Ethereum’s Shapella FOMO

Interestingly, Ether’s local bottom formation versus Bitcoin occurred on the day of Ethereum’s long-awaited Shapella upgrade.

The hard fork enables Ether stakers to withdraw their rewards — around 1.1 billion ETH — from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake smart contract. This update may have boosted ETH’s appeal compared to BTC, beating anticipations that a freshly unlocked Ether supply would increase sell-pressure.

Stakers have withdrawn 574,700 ETH — worth about $1.21 billion — since the Shapella upgrade on April 12, according to data fetched by Nansen. Interestingly, Ether’s price in U.S. dollar terms has increased by 14.25% in the same period.

ETH deposits vs. withdrawals. Source: Nansen

It means that many stakers have decided to hold onto their Ether rewards. On the other hand, Bitcoin has failed to log a decisive breakout above its technical resistance of $30,000, possibly making ETH a more attractive short-term bet for traders.

Weak institutional inflows versus Bitcoin

Institutional investors have shown more interest in Bitcoin than Ether in the past week, according to CoinShares’ weekly report.

For instance, Bitcoin-based investment vehicles witnessed $103.8 million in inflows in the week ending April 14. In comparison, Ethereum funds attracted $300,000 only, showing that mainstream investors may have followed the “sell the news” strategy after the Shapella upgrade.

Net flows into crypto funds. Source: CoinShares

Ethereum price meanwhile is also at risk of a possible bearish reversal move due to its overbought daily relative strength index (RSI).

Related: Shapella could bring institutional investors to Ethereum despite risks

If ETH rprice etreats from its current resistance level of around $2,140, its immediate downside target appears at around $1,984, which acted as resistance in May 2022 and August 2022.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

An extended selloff could push Ether price down to its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,800, down about 15% than its current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SOL price risks 20% drop despite Grayscale Solana Trust’s retail debut

On April 17, the price of Solana (SOL) crept lower in the wake of similar price moves across the top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

SOL’s price dropped over 4% under $24.50 despite rising to $26 — a two-month high — earlier in the day.

In comparison, BTC’s and ETH’s prices dropped 3.5% and 3%, respectively, hinting at a bearish start to the week.

SOL/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

SOL price in a technical correction

The SOL/USD selloff on April 17 started after it entered its 2023 resistance range.

Notably, the $25-27 price area has capped Solana’s upside attempts since January 2023. Testing it as resistance has preceded 25-40% corrections on multiple occasions this years, as illustrated below.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The possibility of undergoing a sharp bearish reversal in April has now increased as SOL’s price returns into the range and its daily relative strength index (RSI) hangs around the overbought threshold of 70.

In this bear scenario, the immediate downside target appears to be around $20, about 20% lower than the current prices. 

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $25-27 price range could have SOL price climb toward $30, which served as support in August-October 2022.

Such a breakout could extend until $35 over the next few months, and this level coincides with SOL’s 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below).

SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Grayscale Solana Trust goes public

On April 17, U.S.-based Grayscale Investments announced that its Grayscale Solana Trust has begun trading on OTC Markets under the symbol: GSOL.

Related: Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

To recap: the Grayscale Solana Trust is a security that derives its value from the SOL’s spot price. In doing so, the trust enables investors to gain exposure in the Solana market while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping SOL directly.

Interestingly, SOL’s price dropped by up to 4.40% after the announcement, suggesting traders likely “sold the news” of an institutional Solana investment product going public. 

SOLUSD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

One reason for the bearish debut for GSOL is the current state of Grayscale Trusts on the whole. Notably, they act like closed-end funds, meaning Grayscale cannot issue new shares or remove shares from the open market to adjust to capital inflow or outflow.

As a result, the share price of the Solana Trust can deviate from the net asset value. This could spook investors in a bear market when their GSOL starts trading at a discount versus the value of Grayscale’s SOL reserves, similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

As of April 17, Grayscale Solana Trust’s holdings per share were up around 148% YTD stemming from identical gains in SOL/USD. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Tether market cap eyes record high after regaining 65% stablecoin dominance

Tether (USDT) has emerged as a clear winner amid the ongoing banking crisis and crypto crackdown in the U.S.

On April 17, the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin’s circulating market valuation reached nearly $81 billion, just 1.5% below its record high of $82.29 billion from a year ago. It has grown about 20% year-to-date (YTD) already and is now eyeing new all-time highs.

USDT market capitalization monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Tether rivals hit new yearly lows

USDT’s growth came as Tether ate up the market share of its stablecoin rivals, USD Coin (USDC) and Binance USD (BUSD). That is due to crypto traders’ belief that Tether’s operations have no exposure to the potential banking crisis contagion.

For instance, the circulating market capitalization of the USD Coin, the second-largest stablecoin, has dropped over 25% YTD to $31.82 billion, its worst since October 2021, primarily due to its exposure to the failed Silicon Valley Bank

USDC market capitalization monthly chart. Source: TradingView

BUSD, on the other hand, has witnessed a 60% drop in market capitalization in 2023 to $6.68 billion, its lowest since April 2021, as the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) ordered Paxos, a regional crypto firm, to stop its mint and issuance. 

Moreover, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asserts that BUSD is a “security.” Conversely, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) alleges that the stablecoin is a “commodity.”

This capital shift likely helped Tether boost its dominance above 65% in the global stablecoin sector for the first time since May 2021, according to Glassnode data. 

Stablecoin supply dominance. Source: Glassnode

On April 16, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee published a draft version of its potential stablecoin bill to create definitions for issuers. It says that non-U.S. firms like Tether must register if they cater to Americans, albeit without mentioning the specific agency that would regulate stablecoins.

Exchange stablecoin supply lowest since June 2021

Despite Tether’s market capitalization growth, its supply across crypto exchanges has been declining in 2023.

Related: BTC price heading under $30K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

As of April 16, cryptocurrency exchanges had 12.94 billion USDT in their reserves compared to 17.89 billion USDT at the year’s beginning. On the whole, the stablecoin supply across exchanges has dropped 42% YTD to $21.53 billion.

Stablecoin supply across exchanges. Source: Glassnode

This dynamic coincides with the 21% YTD increase in the crypto market’s valuation from $1 trillion in January to $1.21 trillion, suggesting that Q1 has seen a trend shift from “safe” stablecoins to risk-on cryptocurrencies. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Tesla selling Bitcoin last year turned out to be a $500M mistake

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has grown by more than 50% since Tesla unveiled its approximately $1 billion BTC sales in July 2022.

Are Tesla’s Bitcoin trades profitable? 

Tesla infamously dumped nearly $936 million of its total Bitcoin holdings in Q2/2022, accounting for 75% of its remaining reserves, to secure a $64 million profit. At the time, Bitcoin was trading about 70% lower than its record high of $69,000 in November 2021.

BTC/USD monthly price chart featuring Tesla’s Bitcoin sales purchases and sales. Source: TradingView

Originally, Tesla purchased $1.50 billion worth of Bitcoin in February 2021 at an average price of $36,000. The company then sold BTC worth $272 million to boost its Q1/2021 accounting by $101 million.

The company has nevertheless held on to its remaining BTC as of Q4 2022 despite the price of Bitcoin sitting at bear-market lows of around $16,000 at the time. Today, Tesla holds 10,725 BTC worth around $330 million, almost 15% below the procurement value from February 2021.

Overall, Tesla made roughly $165 million in profit from two separate Bitcoin sales. As of April 14, it sits atop an unrealized loss of around $56.6 million on its remaining BTC holdings. While its net profit to date sits at around $108 million. 

Will Tesla dump remaining BTC holdings?

Interestingly, Tesla’s previous Bitcoin sales came from weaker free cash flows. For instance, the Q1/2021’s BTC sale worth $272 million made up nearly 93% of Tesla’s free cash flows in the same quarter.

Tesla free cash flows performance by quarter. Source: Statista

Similarly, Tesla’s Bitcoin sales in Q2/2022 came as its free cash flows declined 73% versus the previous quarter. Both sales suggest that Musk relied on Bitcoin as a haven during Tesla’s cash crunch phases.

The Tesla CEO explained at the time that the sale was made to “prove liquidity of Bitcoin as an alternative to holding cash on a balance sheet.”

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts estimate that Tesla’s free cash flow in Q1/2023 would be nearly $2 billion, up 40% versus the previous quarter. This should reduce the chances of Tesla dumping any significant Bitcoin amount in the near term.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 signs Arbitrum price is poised for a new record high in Q2

Arbitrum (ARB) has emerged as one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies after Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai upgrade.

Notably, ARB price gained 4.28% to $1.36 on April 13, its highest level in two weeks. This also amounts to 18% gains from its $1.15 low a day ago when the Shanghai upgrade enabled staking withdrawals on Ethereum.

ARB/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

To recap, Arbitrum is an Ethereum layer-2 (L2) scaling solution that aims to reduce network transaction congestion and transaction fees. As a result, the market typically perceives Ethereum’s growth as a boon for L2 chains.

Here are three reasons why ARB could continue its bull run in Q2 to retest its record high of $1.60.

More utility for ARB

Arbitrum generated $2.5 million in profits in March 2023 via sequencing, according to Messari.

Arbitrum financial performance in 2023. Source: Messari

Notably, sequencer profits represent the difference in fee revenue generated by the L2 chain and the fee expense paid to the base L1 chain — all calculated in Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token, not ARB.

These profits will eventually go to Arbitrum’s community-managed DAO called ArbitrumDAO as it grows to become more decentralized in the future.

Sequencers can create maximal extractable value (MEV) by arranging users’ transaction requests — a feature missing from Arbitrum.

However, ArbitrumDAO may end up monetarizing MEV by auctioning off rights to produce blocks once they launch decentralized sequencing, asserts Kunal Goel, a researcher at Messari. This would open up opportunities for ARB as a staking token.

“The DAO will likely enforce ARB staking for sequencers to economically align incentives and to allow for slashing in case of any misbehavior, similar to validators in Proof-of-Stake networks,” noted Goel, adding:

“This will add value to the token as users demand greater security from the protocol.”

Capturing Optimism’s market share

Arbitrum has outperformed its top Ethereum L2 rival, Optimism (OP), on almost all the key metrics throughout most of 2022 and 2023.

For instance, in 2022, Arbitrum generated $22 million in sequencer revenue and $6 million in profits. Meanwhile, Optimism made $18 million and $4 million in sequencer revenue and profits, respectively.

Similarly, the first quarter of 2023 saw Arbitrum outperforming Optimism’s revenue by $4 million in revenue and $3 million in profits.

Arbitrum vs. Optimism key metrics. Source: Messari

Arbitrum also had a higher total value locked (TVL) through most of 2022 and 2023, with its dominance increasing further after the ARB airdrop in March.

As of April 13, Arbitrum’s TVL was $2.27 billion compared to Optimism’s $930 million.

Optimism versus Arbitrum TVL. Source: Defi Llama

“At current market prices, ARB trades at a discount to OP across all valuation multiples,” Goel noted.

ARB price in descending triangle breakout

The ongoing run-up in Arbitrum price has broken above what appears to be a continuation pattern.

Related: ARB price to $2? Ethereum L2 rival Arbitrum will double in April, fractal suggests

Dubbed descending triangle, the pattern develops when the price consolidates between a falling trendline resistance and horizontal support. It resolves after the price breaks out of the range, pursuing the direction of its previous trend.

ARB has entered a similar breakout stage on April 13 after rising above its triangle’s upper trendline with convincing volumes. 

ARB/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

The ARB/USD pair now a run-up toward $1.60 in Q2, its best level to date, and up 20% from current price levels. This upside target is measured after adding the maximum distance between the triangle’s trendlines to the breakout point.

Conversely, ARB price risks short-term correction due to its overbought relative strength index (RSI) on a four-hour chart. In this case, the triangle’s upper trendline will be the likely downside target at around $1.20.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Can Ethereum crack $2K? ETH price inches closer despite new unlocked supply

The price of Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token came just a few dollars from hitting $2,000 a day after the launch of the network’s long-anticipated Shanghai upgrade.

Ethereum ducks sell-the-news fears

On April 13, Ether’s price gained roughly 4% to reach an intraday high of $1,996 on Coinbase, ignoring the potential selloff pressure the Shanghai upgrade could potentially bring to the market.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

To recap: the Shanghai hard fork, also known as “Shapella,” enables users to withdraw their ETH from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake smart contract.

As of 09:00 UTC, April 13, over 98,000 ETH worth around $194.8 million has left Ethereum’s voting balance reserves since the Shanghai launch a day ago, according to Nansen. In other words, nearly $200 million in potential selling pressure has entered the market.

ETH deposits vs. withdrawals. Source: Nansen

But Ether’s price rise since the Shanghai launch suggests that the market had no problem absorbing any selling pressure arising from this event so far. It’s also possible that most users have decided to hold onto their ETH staking rewards rather than sell them in anticipation of further gains.

About 15% of Ethereum’s total supply in circulation, nearly 120.4 million ETH, is currently staked.

Interestingly, more than 70% of the ETH staked is still underwater compared to current price levels, according to data gathered by Dune Analytics. This reduces the possibility of a sell-off in the near term from Shanghai’s staking withdrawals.

Ethereum price risks 10% correction

The ongoing run-up in the Ethereum market has left ETH/USD slightly overbought, raising the likelihood of a short-term price correction this month.

Related: When levees break, liquidity flows — Analyzing Ethereum Shapella and liquidity staking derivatives

Notably, ETH’s daily relative strength index (RSI) is merely two points below its overbought threshold of 70. In addition, ETH/USD tests a critical resistance level near $1,990, which in May 2022 and August 2022 preceded price pullbacks. 

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

A repeat of this scenario likely means a correction toward its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,750 in April, down about 10% than the current price levels. This ETH price level is also close to the historical support/resistance line.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above $2,000 — a psychological resistance level — could have Ether price start its potential climb toward $3,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why is Dogecoin (DOGE) price down today?

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 4.6% to $0.0808 under the influence of a broader crypto market correction on April 12. This downside move preceded the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), which showed inflation eased to its lowest level in two years.

Dogecoin wipes out Elon Musk-led gains

Dogecoin’s latest price drop appeared also after Elon Musk-owned Twitter removed the token’s official mascot — the Shiba Inu meme — from its home button to reinstate its original bluebird logo.

Previously, DOGE price had surged by 30% to $0.104 on April 3 as speculations emerged that Musk is working on adding a Dogecoin payments on Twitter.

DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Instead, the website removed the Dogecoin logo from its home button around April 7. Since then, DOGE price has lost 5.25% and has effectively wiped out its Dogecoin-Twitter logo gains.

Related: Will Shiba Inu tail Dogecoin’s price rally?

DOGE price eyes 15% rebound 

Nevertheless, DOGE should attract buyers near $0.080, which coincides with a support confluence comprising its long-standing ascending trendline and its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), as shown below.

A bounce after or before testing the support confluence could put DOGE/USD on the road to $0.10 in April or early May, up around 15% from current price levels.

“High time frames this is an area of huge volume, probably a fine area to accumulate a spot position,” noted independent market analyst Altcoin Sherpa, adding:

“But it could take a long time to play out as it normally does, so the opportunity cost of that $ could be pricey.”

DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a decisive break below the support confluence could increase DOGE’s probability of falling toward $0.069. This level coincides with Dogecoin’s multi-month ascending trendline support; it was also instrumental in limiting downside in December 2022.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price retests key support level that preceded 60% gains in June 2022

Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token continued its losing streak versus Bitcoin (BTC) for the fifth day in a row as BTC’s price jumped above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022.

ETH/BTC bullish reversal fails midway

On April 11, the ETH/BTC pair dropped nearly 1.6% to 0.0634 BTC to retest multi-month lows.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC level is down 6.75% from its local peak of 0.0679 BTC set six days ago. It is also just 2% above the pair’s local low of 0.0622 BTC from March 20, showing that Ether’s bullish reversal attempt versus Bitcoin is near failure.

Interestingly, institutional interest also appears more gravitated toward Bitcoin than Ethereum, according to CoinShares’ weekly report. It shows that the Bitcoin-focused investment funds witnessed inflows worth $56 million in the week ending April 7.

Net flows into crypto funds in the week ending April 7. Source: CoinShares

In comparison, the Ethereum-based funds received only $600,000 despite the hype around its long-awaited Shanghai hard fork on April 12.

Another ETH price rebound attempt ahead?

ETH/BTC’s ongoing decline has prompted it to retest its multi-month ascending trendline support (buy zone) near 0.0635 BTC for a potential price rebound toward its descending trendline resistance (sell zone) near 0.0750 BTC. 

In other words, a 16.5% price rally by June, as covered in previous analysis.

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The bullish reversal outlook takes cues from ETH/BTC’s price rebound in July 2022 after testing the same ascending trendline as support. Notably, the pair rose by about 60% to reach the descending trendline resistance near 0.0856 BTC.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

Conversely, a decisive break below the ascending trendline support would raise ETH/BTC’s possibility to eye its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.0563 BTC, down about 10% from current price levels.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Like the ascending trendline support, the 200-week EMA was instrumental in stopping Ether’s price decline versus Bitcoin in July 2022. This makes it the most probable downside target in the coming months.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price rally stalls as SEC vs. Ripple ruling drags on — 25% drop ahead?

XRP (XRP) rose 2.1% to $0.52 on April 11, extending its daily gains from $0.50 alongside a broader cryptocurrency market rally as traders pinned hopes on easing inflation data into April 12.

XRP price: lackluster volumes raise risk of 25% correction

XRP’s upside move brought it closer to breaking out of its prevailing bull pennant range with a price target of $0.65.

XRP/USD daily candle price chart. Source: Tradingview

However, lackluster volumes accompanying XRP’s gains hinted at a potential price correction in the future. That could mean a short-term pullback toward the pennant’s lower trendline near $0.51 in April or a broader correction altogether invalidating the bullish continuation setup.

The extended selloff scenario is best visible on the weekly chart below, wherein a key resistance-turned-support line has limited XRP’s upside prospects.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the fractal plays out again, XRP price will risk falling toward its multi-month ascending trendline support near $0.40 by May, down about 25% from current price levels.

SEC vs. Ripple hype cools down

XRP price has soared by nearly 55% in 2023 primarily due to anticipations that Ripple will win the lawsuit filed against it by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That includes its 43% rise in March amid speculations that the ruling will come out by the month’s end.

Related: Ripple, Montenegro sign deal on project for unspecified national digital currency

But it didn’t. Simultaneously, the Google search score for the keyword “SEC vs. Ripple” declined from its March peak of 100 — a perfect score — to 56 in the week ending April 8.

Internet trends for the keyword ‘SEC vs. Ripple’ on a 12-month relative basis. Source: Google Trends

In addition, “XRP” social volumes dropped from their March highs, according to data tracked by Santiment.

XRP social volumes. Source: Santiment

Lastly, XRP remains in lockstep with Bitcoin (BTC) on a daily timeframe. However, as Cointelegraph noted, BTC risks a correction to $25,000 in the near term due to rate hike risks, putting XRP and other altcoins in danger of losses as well.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.