Post-Shapella Recap: Nothing and then Something

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/post-shapella-recap-nothing-and-then-something/

With CPI, FOMC meeting minutes, and ETH Shapella wrapping up, most event/narrative-based traders are left looking for the next opportunity. Although there were mixed reviews on the short-term outlook of Shapella, in most measured metrics, it is clear that ETH currently has more opportunity from both a volatility and directional standpoint. Regarding magnitude, the ETH/BTC ratio as of 08:00 UTC, Thursday, has yet to see a level change such as this since March 13th and January 24th, as the previous rallies were predominantly BTC-led.

Much of this move in ETH began around the LDN opening, and the continued momentum has led to a measurable amount of shorts liquidated in ETH, with liquidations over the past 24 hours in ETH outnumbering BTC. Regarding some of the mixed reviews on post-Shapella price action, given the delayed response of the bullish move, I’d lean to speculate that perhaps traders saw post-event that not much adverse price action came through the tape and that a delayed wave of buying came in after a while to digest the implications in both the short and long term.

Regarding the broader macro environment and price action around CPI, there was an initial spike upon the positive data, however a further rally never really materialized in either of the majors. Front-end vols post-CPI fell drastically, with ETH options holding a small bid as the Shapella upgrade became the predominant tradable event. Another supporting factor for this current outperformance in ETH related to Shapella can also be seen in the relative performance of some of the L2s built on ETH, with OP and ARB up 4 and 11 percent, respectively.

ARB in Orange, ETH in Yellow, BTC in Blue, and OP in Purple.

Post-Event Skew Analysis

In BTC, post-CPI saw the development of weekly put skew at a premium, which has since then reversed. The monthly skew has stayed relatively flat, with a mix of flows targeting the end of May and end of April expiries. Today, predominant flows in the European session show a preference for vega in both ETH and BTC with the uncertain events behind us and positive price action for the majors.

With ETH Shapella also being a predominant event that traders had positioned for, it’s no surprise how volatile some of the shorter-term skews from a magnitude perspective are a bit more volatile than BTC. Around Sunday 20:00 UTC, weekly skews were in the gutter with puts at almost a 6 IV premium to calls in the 25 delta range. The weekly skew shows calls now trading at a 6 IV premium. As measured by the 25D risk reversal, the short-term skew is up between 5 and 6 points in the 21APR23 and 28APR23 expiries.

Post-Event Term Structure Analysis

Although realized volatilities have been low, implieds have stayed elevated with this week’s events at the forefront. Compared to a day ago, the BTC term structure in the longer-dated end of the curve has drifted down a few points, while the opposite has been seen in ETH. The ETH term structure shows a strong backwardation, mainly driven by favorable price uncertainty toward the upside on this break above $2,000.

BTC Term Structure 1 Day Ago.

ETH Term Structure 1 Day Ago.

Flows

Heavy demand for upside wings and rolling of strikes have been the predominant flows recently, with small blocks of 29DEC23 upside bought during the European session and strong demand for similar OTM calls in ETH.

For more information and analysis on block flows, check out Paradigm Edge on Telegram.

Bonus Chart

A strong bid for near-ATM upside has left dealers short gamma around the $2,000 strike. Although there has undoubtedly been heavy demand across OTC desks that might not be represented, staying cognizant of high-level speculated dealer gamma positioning would suggest that dealer hedging around these levels would be a net volatility add to price action here in ETH. BTC, however, does not show a similar profile. With spot liquidity drying up over the past week, TWAPs execution and outright blocking delta hedges can undoubtedly impact price – especially if we push into liquidation ranges.

ETH Dealer GEX as measured by AmberData.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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Weekend Wrap: Healthy Consolidation

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/weekend-wrap-healthy-consolidation/

After a seemingly never-ending barrage of bearish news throughout the month of March, not limited to Wells notices, bank closures, and a drastically changing macro environment, we’ve started off the month of April in a bit of a consolidatory lull. BTC’s valiant efforts of breakout above $30,000 to close the month of March fell just short with a local high of around $29,100 on Thursday before a slight retracement to current levels after spot selling pressure stepped up.

The massive open interest in the March 31st tenor has rolled off as trader interest focuses on the weekly and monthly expiries of 7APR23 and 28APR23 with OI at 1.01B and 2.37B respectively, and from a high level perspective, the current spot/vol correlation continues to persist although the recent consolidation at these higher levels have driven implieds across the board down.

Term Structure for BTC and ETH

The persistent consolidation over the past few weeks has flattened term structure with the chart below and AmberData’s term-structure richness graph showing this as well. Longer dated taker flows have come in as discussed further on, but with the recent rally losing steam and realized trending lower, a slow drift downward across the board seems likely – especially on a steady decline further back into the trading range.

Spot/Vol correlation remains strong, and with current price levels close to $30K – especially after a move above $29K last week – implieds could certainly see a large bid step in on a move higher. On a relative basis, ETH is back to trading above BTC from an IV perspective as that bullish exuberance and BTC driven move over the past few weeks started to settle down and demand for BTC optionality declined.

Skew for BTC and ETH

From a skew perspective, longer dated skew has continued its trend throughout the week with calls trading at a relative 5 vol premium in the 25 delta range compared to puts. Short dated skew heading into the weekend was slightly bearish and any bid for weekly call skew quickly reversed before the Asia session opened.

ETH has followed BTC trend wise, with more of a sharp decline in weekly skew seen over the weekend, but noticeably ETH skew shows weekly (and almost monthly) 25 delta calls continuing to trade at a deficit to the 25 delta puts. As the Shanghai upgrade is scheduled to take place on April 12th so it will be interesting to see how weekly skew reacts then.

However, it is to be noted that CPI and FOMC meeting minutes also occur on Wednesday, April 12th, so I’m heavily biased in leaning toward those events being more impactful on the short-term price action of both BTC/ETH than the Shanghai narrative.

Liquidations

Liquidations to close the year off have been relatively quiet as we continue to consolidate. Recent liquidations over the past 24 hours seem to be concentrated on OKX according to Coinalyze, and the aggregated funding rate average has flipped from positive to negative.

Noticeable Flows Throughout the Week

With traded option volumes at all time highs and the month of March leading to multiple record days over at Paradigm, the sizable flows coming in have certainly been interesting to take note of. A couple of the most interesting and noticeable blocks that came to mind last week were: The buyer of 3000x BTC 29MAR24 50K/65K Call Spreads (around $60K vega notional on day of listing), bullish June call spreads blocked in two sets of 1.5K lots in the 29, 35, and 40K strikes, and some big calendar spreads that finally look to potentially be trading the ETH merge.

Check out Paradigm’s recent tweet for a more thorough description of some of the noticeable flows last week.

A Look Ahead

Given how dire the markets looked heading into the weekend of USDC’s depegging and how the banking catastrophe has played out, I’d say I’m surprised at the strength and resilience of BTC to close out March.

However, there are other factors at play here that make me a bit less skeptical of prices at current levels. Some of the factors I’m considering at play here are, spot demand and liquidations after the sharp reversal of price near $20K as new vol sellers and perp shorters stepped in only to get blown out in the huge run in the subsequent days, the continued liquidity provision of the Fed to help support the banking system, and lastly the flows from stables and USD into BTC on the back of the banking failures.

Heading into April, short-term focus is on the upcoming NFPs this week and CPI the week after, with all eyes on the $30,000 upper bound of the range we’re currently trading in.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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Weekend Wrap: Volatility Is Back

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/weekend-wrap-volatility-is-back/

What started as a relatively calm week ended up spiraling out of control leading to a chaotic weekend as stablecoins depegged, banks failed, and the option/volatility markets saw a sign of life. Spot/Vol correlation decoupled from the recent status-quo in terms of (spot-up/vol-up) as option buyers started to become cognizant of the potential for further downside.

Put flows became rampant to end the week, and skew shifted massively across all tenors to a hefty premium in puts. With the recent rally, put skew has softened slightly, but OTM puts still trade at a premium.

Call buyers stepped in as we tested lows, and several of those bets ended up paying out with some of the 3/31 and shorter dated tenor 22K call buyers up several hundred percent after the massive Sunday rally. Term structure has become heavily backwardated on the recent fears, and overall IV has shifted higher across all tenors.

Term Structure for BTC and ETH

In both BTC and ETH, term structure has become heavily backwardated with short-dated expiries trading at significant volatility premiums compared to longer dated expiries. IV across the board has shifted up significantly after a dreadfully slow decline throughout the month of February and to start March. Longer-dated tenors in BTC shifted anywhere between 3-6 points, while the April expiry moved a whopping 12 points higher for ATM strikes.

ETH term structure shows a similar picture with sharp backwardation occurring in the front end of the curve, with a shift higher across the entire curve. Interestingly, September is slightly depressed compared to the surrounding tenors, and December has a slight kink higher than both June and September most likely caused by some of the recent flows (large calendar spreads blocked recently).

Skew for BTC and ETH

Skew has stayed relatively firm over the past few weeks but with structural fear starting to build up and the frantic worries around stablecoins over the weekend, skew across all tenors drifted heavily towards favoring puts as flows for downside protection became prevalent prior to the rally on Sunday. At the peak, put skew had shown 25 delta puts trading at 6 point premium before slowly reverting to around a 2.5 point premium in the 180 day tenor, with the 90 day tenor trading at a 10 point premium before slowly reverting to 3.3.

In ETH, short dated skew reacted much more negatively than in BTC while longer dated skew had an interesting spike higher that quickly faded at the same time skew was most negative. This strong demand for puts slowly faded with weekly skew shifting from a 15 IV premium to 5.5.

Liquidations

March 8th saw the largest number of longs liquidated over the past 3 months according to Coinglass. Quickly thereafter however, shorts saw a large number of liquidations popping up as well as short-term solutions to the recent USDC depegging and bank fears slowly started to materialize.

To help add to the buying pressure, with confidence in stablecoins waning, a potential shift in allocation from stables to majors also seems to be in the cards as spot buys flow in (although difficult to pinpoint reasoning).

Noticeable Flows Throughout the Week

Large flows into puts as recent events started to become primary trading narratives, with large blocks of OTM puts in BTC and ETH both purchased. Popular strikes and expiries were the 18/19K strikes expiring 17MAR and 31MAR in BTC. In ETH, 1.2/1.3K strikes expiring 31MAR were prevalent.

Buy-The-Dip-esque trading started to flow in toward the end of the week after the large selloff and liquidations, which (as of now) seemed to have paid off quite nicely after the Sunday rally. Large blocks of vega selling after this rally in vols have been noticed in ETH as well.

For further detail on some of the block flows traded through Paradigm, check out their recent tweet.

A Look Ahead

A spike in implieds across the board has been warranted given the recent events and some of the potential longer term implications and short-term fallout. However, it seems like the market is both happy with some of the short-term solutions, as well as some of the longer-term implications on rates.

Interestingly enough, a week ago predictions showed a 0% chance for a no-hike FOMC, and a 31.4% chance of a 50 bp hike. Now, predictions are estimating a 15.1% chance for no hike, and a 0% chance of a 50 bp hike.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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Weekend Wrap: An unexciting end to February

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/weekend-wrap-an-unexciting-end-to-february/

Although the beginning of the month started with some heavily bullish bets in both short and long dated tenors, flows coming in toward the end of the month have been mixed or slightly bearish. It looks like some of the longer-term bets on volatility and the demand for longer-term optionality are also starting to decline, as this weekend saw one of the more drastic shifts downward in term structure – surprisingly in the back-end of the term structure, which has stayed relatively firm over the past week.

Regarding open interest, February had one of the larger option expiries across the majors, with around $1.8B in open interest expiring in BTC options alone. Short-term speculation toward the upside had occurred during the multiple tests of $25K. After multiple rejections, dealers are speculated to be net short gamma from the $25K-30K region.

The ETH Shanghai narrative indeed continues to be of interest, but the options markets don’t seem to be pricing in the event in the same way the Merge was priced in. There are no noticeable kinks in term structure and not too many systematic or abnormal blocks coming in for the end of March expiry. Implied volatility across all tenors of options in BTC has steadily declined, with ATM IV trading at relative lows compared to the rest of the month. This decline in implied volatility has been consistent with range-bound price action.

Term Structure for BTC and ETH

Flows in some of the longer-dated tenors have become prevalent, with June straddle supply in BTC causing the recently sticky back end in BTC term structure to decouple, coming in 3-4 IVs in even the September/December tenors. As range-bound price action continues, February price in BTC looks to close out only around +1.2%, compared to the 40% increase in January. The bullish exuberance leading into the beginning of February certainly contributed to the elevated levels of implied volatility that slowly dwindled before reaching recent relative lows.

A similar picture in ETH looks to be painted, as vol selling across the board in ETH lines up with the similar sentiment established in BTC. Implieds have come in throughout the entirety of the curve, with the largest decline seen mainly in the June expiry.

Skew for BTC and ETH

In BTC, the longer-dated skew has stayed relatively stable over the past week, while the front end of the curve (as represented by the 7 and 30 day timeframes) has steadily declined since the beginning of last week. To start the week, 25 delta calls in BTC had traded at almost an 8 IV point premium, now currently only trading at around 1 IV point premium. Noticeably, the skew in BTC across all tenors is still positive, and the market over the past few weeks has shown a slight preference toward calls.

In ETH, the same level of preference for calls has not been echoed as skew across all tenors trades in the negative levels – signaling the 25 delta put trading at a premium to the call. This trend has persisted over the past few weeks regarding a lingering preference toward puts.

Liquidations

There have certainly been some noticeable liquidations throughout the month of February, with the price action on February 8th leading to the largest amount of long liquidations over the past few months as we dipped back below $22,000 – leading to a flush of leverage. This weekend, however, was relatively quiet, with relatively modest price action and very few liquidations occurring on either end.

Noticeable Flows Throughout the Week

Friday saw vol sellers entering the ecosystem, coinciding with quite a bit of a decline in vol across all tenors. Longer-dated vol selling materializing in the form of June straddles were blocked, and outright upside demand in the wings began to transpire. Friday also saw a similar supply of vol traded in ETH as many puts in the May and June expiries flooded the markets before the weekend.

Given the strikes, I can’t imagine this outright buying of the $45K strikes being a hedge for any short BTC positions. Several traders were undoubtedly betting on a break above $25K and expecting a combination of a directional move in their favor and a repricing of risk in some of the tails to drive profits on these positions.

Check out Paradigm’s most recent Twitter thread for insight into last week’s flows and macro insights.

A Look Ahead

With a supply of vol flooding the markets on Friday, the continued range-bound price action, and a dearth of short-term catalysts, the options markets have been relatively sleepy as term structure across the board in both BTC and ETH has broadly come in – even in some of the stickier longer-dated tenors.

Speculated dealer gamma positioning continues to pop up on Twitter threads. Still, barring any catalysts in the near term, pushing current prices into those more volatile negative gamma pockets will be challenging. The catalysts I watch out for in this environment are unexpected liquidations driven by the supply and demand dynamics of the perpetual futures markets and outsized spot trading.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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Weekend Wrap: Bulls at an impasse

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/weekend-wrap-bulls-at-an-impasse/

Although the US had celebrated a long weekend, price action has still shown signs of uncertainty. A wick to $23.8K was quickly met with a reversal in price and a sanguine test of $25K followed quickly after the Asia trading session started Monday. Topside demand last week had been concentrated in the $26K strike for BTC, and after an exhaustion of bullish spot buying and multiple rejections of $25K, the open interest in this strike has started to decline.

From a volatility perspective, the ratio of ETH/BTC ATM IVs has come in sharply over the weekend and now shows the spread between ETH/BTC at relative lows. The rally has been predominantly focused on BTC as expressed through the demand and interest in the options markets, even as the ETH-specific Shanghai narrative has started to pop up on the occasional Twitter thread.

ETH/BTC ATM Ratio (BlockScholes)

Skew, BTC

Thursday last week saw a massive shift in sentiment implied by the options market, as weekly skew saw a sudden shift ending with weekly calls trading at a premium. This shift is most likely driven by short-dated topside flows coming in toward the end of the week. The premium in weekly call skew has since then reversed, driven by the closing out of some of these positions as the upside rally some had expected failed to materialize.

25D BTC Skew Call-Put

Skew, ETH

ETH saw a similar spike and eventual reversion in skew as well, although in much lesser magnitude. Skew still remained slightly negative throughout the weekend until a gradual but slight break into the positive ranges occurred toward the end of Monday. This has since then been met by a sharp decline of 7 day and 30 day skews back into the negative region as demand for ETH downside has become a relevant flow, and the exuberant chase for topside evanesces.

25D ETH Skew Call-Put

Term Structure, BTC

Looking back three days, term structure in BTC is relatively unchanged – as most of the interesting changes in the volatility surface over this time have been seen in skew – as indicated by the 25D RR. The recent decline in implieds was noted over the past day rather than throughout the weekend. Longer dated term-structure has firmed while the front end has stayed flexible into this ever-changing market sentiment.

BTC Term Structure (3 Day Lookback)

Term Structure, ETH

ETH’s flat term structure has persisted over time in both the mid-long term tenors. The front end has seen a similar rise in IV as volatility picked up over the weekend, with market participants shifting demand to outright short-dated options as this breakout continues to be at the forefront of speculation with downside put buying starting to pop up.

ETH Term Structure (3 Day Lookback)

Liquidations

As price action in both the majors has been quiet compared to some of the post-CPI price volatility, there have been relatively few notable liquidations. Saturday and Sunday saw relatively equal amounts of both longs and shorts liquidated, and price action in the spot markets persisted quite evenly throughout bids and offers.

Noticeable Flows

Some of the most interesting flows seen over the past week was certainly some of the outright demand in BTC topside as expressed through the $26K 24FEB23 purchases that have recently been closing out as sales of this strike have led to a decline in open interest. Yesterday we saw longer dated put flow entering the market, and another failed breakout of the $25K region as we approach this punchy gamma expiry of 24FEB23.

Friday primarily saw upside demand in both the majors. Outright call spreads in ETH were purchased for longer dated expiries, and short-dated demand for puts had been expressed as well. Screen trades popular today and yesterday show a mix of buying and selling across the call strike range, with a mix of old positions closing out and newer positions popping up.

A Look Ahead

Post-CPI led to a large interest in EoM optionality as open interest for this Friday now encroaches upon almost $2B of notional expiring. A large amount of interest and trading of this EoM tenor popped up throughout last week as the volatile price-action saw rapid changes in price and multiple tests of the upper bounds of the current price-range.

BTC has led this rally even with the Shanghai narrative popping up on a few Twitter threads, and the options market has replicated this euphoric demand for upside as BTC implied vols saw a large spike recently – narrowing the typical spread between ETH/BTC. This week, eyes should be on the expiry coming up and cognizant of the repositioning and shift of speculated dealer gamma positions and subsequent hedging.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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Weekend Wrap: Where do we go from here?

https://insights.deribit.com/industry/weekend-wrap-where-do-we-go-from-here/

Post CPI Update

After giving the markets about 30 minutes to digest the news, vols across the board have come in after the CPI result YoY was hotter than expected (6.4% vs 6.2% exp.). This CPI result, however, had a relatively low impact on price. The wick down seen directly after the event was quickly bid and resulted in current prices trading relatively unchanged compared to prices before the event.

Block sellers of strangles and straddles started to flow in through Paradigm and Deribit as a supply of short-dated vol crushed implied vols in the weeklies. Longer dated expiries took a slight hit as well 30 minutes after the event. A similar trend is forming in ETH, comparing current IV’s to those 24 hours ago. Some had speculated we’d be trading below $21K or above $23K in BTC after this event given the gap up on January 20th, however, current price action suggests we may continue consolidating at these levels as volume starts to build up at these prices and a new, tighter range starts to form.

Weekend Recap

Recent regulatory concerns have been the primary crypto-native narrative impacting price-action recently, with a macro event (CPI) also looming around the corner. Last CPI catalyzed price action that led to massive rallies in BTC and ETH. Although those rallies were predominantly BTC driven, ETH had started to catch up in February as the ETH/BTC ratio started to steadily rise up until Wednesday. This relative strength in ETH during the last week quickly has faded, and firming ETH vols saw a bit of weakness over the weekend in-line with BTC.

Skew, BTC

Short-dated skew in BTC had touched positive levels as an exuberant market relentlessly pursued upside on rallies before slowly drifting lower throughout the next two weeks. Skew across all tenors is heavily depressed, and although a short-term flip to positive happened around 04:00 UTC on Monday to the weekly skew, the premium was short-lived as skew currently shows 25 delta puts at around a 2 IV premium to calls. Longer dated skew in tenors longer than 90 days is still slightly positive and this has persisted ever since the January CPI print and subsequent rally.

Skew, ETH

In ETH, a very noticeable shift in skew has occurred with short-dated 25 delta puts trading around a 7 point premium and even in the longer dated tenors skew is negative. Seeing such a sharp dropoff in call skew, especially prior to this event, signals to me a fear of some short-term downside or skepticism of any upside rallies. After testing $1,700 about 4 times before this sharp rejection we’re now around 15% away from even being close to a test of the upper range we’ve traded in, and thus this decline in demand for OTM calls certainly makes sense. With the supply of upside short-dated calls also coming back into the market as long positions closed out, another weight on upside implied volatility has become apparent.

Term Structure, BTC

With the recent price-action driven in the short-term by some of the regulatory concerns and CPI speculation, the front end of the term-structure in both BTC and ETH is currently in sharp backwardation – primarily due to traders positioning themselves around CPI. The longer-dated end of the term-structure has been relatively stable compared to three days ago.

Term Structure, ETH

In ETH, a similar picture has been painted compared to BTC with sharp backwardation in the front end of the term-structure, especially after a bullish reversal overnight pushing us back above $1,500. Term structure in ETH remains relatively flat across the board, with no noticeable spike in March even though a speculated ETH Shanghai upgrade may be happening during this expiry.

Liquidations

With positive price action closing January out, there has been an accumulation of leveraged longs across the crypto majors. Last week on the 7th, during the move from $23,000 to below $22,000, we saw one of the largest amounts of long liquidations happen. This flush of long leverage out of the system is healthy for price-action in the long term, but had noticeably increased volatility – both realized and implied – during and after this flush.

Noticeable Flows

Last week, mixed flows had come in for BTC with size blocked in certain call spreads followed by the closure of previous outright upside. In ETH, bullish sentiment was the predominant narrative being expressed to start the week off but we closed the week with some increased demand in downside protection as outright short-dated puts scattered across the Feb 17th and Feb 24th expiries started to flow in.

Day-of positioning for CPI in ETH blocked through Paradigm shows sellers of the bull risk reversal, outright puts purchased for longer dated expiries, and a demand for short-dated puts as well. In BTC, some longer dated expiries such as June 30th and April 28th saw some outright call demand, whereas in the short term mixed views had been expressed.

For more detailed insight into block trades executed through Paradigm, take a look at their recent tweet.

A Look Ahead

It will be interesting to see how the longer term implications of any sort of regulatory concerns around staking and stablecoins are either negated or exacerbated by the CPI print we saw today. Short-dated demand for upside after the last CPI print was quite popular, however, this demand for upside was after and during a massive rally which came in the wake of a very quiet previous month of range-bound trading. With the options markets also showing a large supply of the $25K calls sold, this acts as an upper range to watch out for. Additionally, with most of the longs being liquidated recently, perhaps there are a few shorts resting at previous levels of resistance that could possibly be squeezed out and push us back into or out of our previous range.

AUTHOR(S)

Chris Newhouse Chris Newhouse

Chris Newhouse is an OTC Trader at GSR, a crypto native market-maker that specializes in providing liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.


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