Bitcoin’s breakthrough


Market picture

The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies rose 5.7% in the last 24 hours to 1,134 trillion. Bitcoin was the engine of growth, but buyers quickly expanded to some altcoins. Bitcoin is up 7.6%, Ethereum is up 4.7%, and the top altcoins are up from a modest 1.9% (XRP) to 9.4% (Litecoin).

Bitcoin briefly topped $29K at the start of trading on Wednesday. In terms of technical analysis, this is an important bullish signal as the price closed above its 50-day moving average and above previous local highs in a sharp move on Tuesday. This move confirms the breakdown of the downtrend that has been in place for the past two months. The next target for the bulls is the area between the April and May highs at $29.4-$30.4K.

News background

BlackRock’s intention to launch a spot ETF for Bitcoin has boosted institutional investor interest in the cryptocurrency, according to OrBit Markets. BlackRock filed to launch the crypto fund on 15 June. The SEC has rejected such applications more than 30 times, citing market problems and a lack of investor protection.

In anticipation of the halving, hoarders continue accumulating coins, Glassnode noted. Based on the duration of previous such periods, a return to an all-time high could occur within 8-18 months.

According to Coinbase, it is still difficult to predict the impact of a bitcoin halving in 2024. The halving could positively impact BTC’s value, but predicting the impact is speculative.
According to Santiment, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges intensified in June. By mid-June, the amount of BTC on exchanges had fallen to its lowest level since February 2018. The trend to store cryptocurrency autonomously has been dominant since late 2022.

Between 10 and 17 June, the number of new Litecoin addresses increased by 55% in the run-up to the halving, scheduled for 4 August 2023. The total number of addresses reached a record 200 million, surpassing the Ethereum blockchain, which has a total of around 180 million wallets created.

The crypto market gives back March rally


Market picture

Cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 3.2% over the past 24 hours to $1,021 trillion, its lowest level since mid-March when cryptocurrencies rallied on concerns about US banks. There is likely to be a reversal now that crypto exchanges have become a target for regulators and the banking system has managed to avoid any new high-profile failures.

Bitcoin started Thursday’s session below $25,000 (-3.6% in 24 hours), while Ethereum fell to $1640 (-5.4%). Major altcoins are losing between 0.45% (Tron) and 6% (Litecoin).

Bitcoin has retreated to local resistance levels from August last year to February this year. The bulls may try to hold the sell-off near this level, but the current decline is still within the descending channel that has been in place since April. More significant support for Bitcoin is near the 200-day average – now at $23.6K and pointing higher.

News background

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy founder, says the SEC trying to bring regulatory clarity for the crypto market lays the groundwork for a new bitcoin rally. He believes that “confusion & anxiety has been holding back institutional investors.”

The relatively low realisation of gains and losses, coupled with the virtual lack of reaction from holders, suggests that investors are “indifferent” to the SEC’s actions against Binance and Coinbase, Glassnode said. The market reaction has kept Binance’s position as one of the largest holders of BTC and ETH.

The head of the US House Financial Services Committee, Republican Patrick McHenry, said the SEC should have taken strict action against the Binance exchange long ago. He said it should have been shut down years ago.

Mark Cuban, a billionaire, blamed SEC for not having a classification system for cryptocurrencies. Under such circumstances, the regulator can recognise any token as a security.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao denied rumours of market manipulation to inflate BNB’s value by selling Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have further correction potential


Market picture

The cryptocurrency market cap has fallen 1.6% over the past 24 hours to $1.10 trillion, back to the levels from which the market rebounded almost two weeks ago. At the same time, bitcoin is down 2%, Ethereum is down 2.2%, and the top altcoins are losing between 0.5% (Solana) and 3% (Cardano). Polygon (+0.8% in 24 hours) and Tron (+10% in 7 days) beat the headwinds.

The price of Bitcoin dipped below $26K at the start of trading on Thursday, a level it has been consistently above since March 17th. Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally in March and April amid fears over the safety of funds held by regional US banks. As this issue has faded from the headlines, cryptocurrencies have reversed into a correction.  

On the technical analysis front, the $25K level is seen as a critical stop on the way down, with little support found on the journey to that level.

Ethereum has rolled back to the lower end of the last two months’ range at $1777. A further move lower opens the door to $1700.

News background

The popular ChatGPT predicted that Bitcoin’s 2024 halving would be the catalyst for a “massive bull run”, explaining that the value of the limited resource is increasing with unchanged or rising demand.

The International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) said that cryptocurrencies should be treated similarly to stocks and bonds because of their similarities.

Reuters reports that cryptocurrency exchange Binance failed to keep separate corporate and customer balance sheets in 2020 and 2021, violating US financial regulations. Binance has denied the information.

Elon Musk urged people “don’t bet too much” on Dogecoin and not put all their money into the asset, yet he still said that DOGE is his favourite coin.